Having the Russian [or Austrian] Navy threatening the Mediterranean

Greek War of Independence -part 1
Based on: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_War_of_Independence

After years of preparation, the stage was ripe for a Greek War of Independence. In March 1821, the Greeks revolted against the Ottoman Empire in Wallachia and Central Greece, the Peloponnese having revolted in January. Further inspired by the independence of Serbia and potential Russian and Austrian support when the Ottomans were at war with Persia, Ali Pasha, Wallachia and watching Serbia and with the Great Powers distracted by Italy and Iberia, the Greek Revolution took momentum and Alexander Ypsilantis, having marched from Wallachia to Greece with the support of Tudor Vladimirescu and several Serbs, boosted Greek morale while Wallachia was defeated by July 1821 and Serbia was reconquered by Ottoman troops in 1822, being given a greater emphasis over Greece on land. Having defeated the Wallachians and Serbs, the opportunity to quickly defeat the Greeks was gone. Even worse, the Ottomans lost diplomatic support, which wasn't guaranteed despite its role in maintaining the post-Napoleonic order for the fact that it was non-Christian and the target of several empires involved in the order through the Congress of Vienna [Austria and Russia].

News of atrocities against the Greeks, Wallachians and Serbs further angered Austria and Russia and led to preparations for war. With Serbia being annexed after July 1822, the subsequent massacres of Serbs, Wallachians and Greeks led to Austrian and Russian anger against the Ottomans, who were considered as infidel collaborators with nationalists, non-Christians [especially devotees and conservatives] and rebels. This would lead to war with the Ottomans in 1823 between the Great Powers on the Greek side and the Ottomans.

Based on: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_War_of_Independence

In Greece proper [Central Greece and the Peloponnese] and at sea, the war was more successful for the Greeks. Rebellion was extremely strong in the Peloponnese based on tradition and the Greek rebels linked up with the unconquered Maniots from the south a week after revolutionary war was declared on 17 March 1821. This would lead to the capture of Kalamata on 25 March and the formation of a Greek national government. At Patras, news of the Greek revolution would lead to its formalization and acceptance by Archbishop Germanos of Patras, leading to victories for Greek revolutionaries. By April 1821, the Peloponnese was totally in Greek control, apart from besieged fortresses and cities cut off from land, but able to be supplied by sea. Ali Pasha and Wallachia were to be defeated first before the Ottomans could recapture Greece with their troops and massacres of Greeks became commonplace in Ottoman Europe, Anatolia and the Aegean coast. Livadeia was captured on 5 April 1821 and this doomed the Ottoman city of Tripolitsa.

Revolution spread like contagion in Central Greece on the orders of Greek revolutionary organizations and the city of Athens was entered in late April 1821. The rebellion spread further and this led to Central Greece being liberated of the Ottomans in June 1821 for Greek revolutionary operations, supply and safety. Nevertheless, they had to use country roads to bypass Ottoman-controlled cities and forts. To prepare for the siege of Tripolitsa, the village of Valtetsi was taken along with several others that made idea defence positions and an Ottoman counteroffensive using local troops from Central Greece failed with heavy losses and a rout around this village. After failed battles around Thermopylae, used as a defence position by the Greeks, failed by August 1821, the city of Tripolitsa surrendered in the same month [earlier than reality due to a tighter Greek blockade, other mentioned battles happening slightly later than reality]. By 1 January 1822, Central Greece was secured by revolutionaries.

To the north, Macedonia was threatened by Greeks from Thrace and the northern Aegean, but harsh Ottoman reprisals were inflicted on the Greek population, just lesser than inflicted in liberated Greece or places affected by the aforementioned massacres. Reinforced from the Aegean islands, resistance was futile as by May 1822, the Greek revolution in Thrace and Macedonia was defeated with the survivors captured, executed, scattered or fleeing to Psara [which assisted the revolution in Macedonia, among other Greek islands in the Aegean and with these islands accepting refugees from the Ottomans] and liberated Greece. The island of Crete was to be secured by Muhammad Ali of Egypt while the insurgency of Cyprus was defeated as in reality, with harsher repercussions for Greeks on the Ottoman controlled islands further west or closer to the Turkish coast geographically. Cyprus would never revolt in support of Greece again due to harsh measures, while Crete would divert the troops of Muhammad Ali of Egypt from the liberated Greek mainland.

At sea, the Greek revolutionaries had an inferior navy, but countered the issue with selected defences or battle sites and fireships. Nevertheless, an insurgency in Chios was defeated with massacres of its Greek population. Also, revolts in Epirus and Serbia failed in June 1822. Nevertheless, the Ottomans were able to reorganize their weakened forces and launch a large scale offensive under Dramali Pasha that ended in disaster in November 1822 and the few survivors [below 500] were forced to retreat in disaster over December [later than in reality due to the need to defeat Serbia]. Nauplia and Dramali Pasha's defeat led to Nauplia falling in December 1822. Messolonghi also resisted sieges from 1822 to 1824 while the war at sea and on the islands became worse for the Ottomans.
 
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Greek War of Independence -Foreign Intervention
With the Ottoman defeats in Greece and the massacres of Serbs, Greeks and Wallachians, the foreign response was to defeat the Ottomans once and for all. In 1822, pressure from the Holy Alliance, France and Britain failed to convince the Ottomans to stop persecution. The constitutional crisis and liberal revolution in Spain was to be solved as well. In the end, France would be responsible for dealing with Spain while Russia and Austria would deal with the Ottoman Empire according to the Congress of Vienna's 28 January 1823 meeting, shortly before the Austrian and Russian armies marched into the Ottoman Empire. Britain would fight for Greece instead of fighting for Latin American, Spanish and Portuguese revolutionaries.

On 1 May 1823, the Ottoman Empire received Austrian, Serbian and Russian troops on its borders. Having refused an ultimatum, the Ottoman Empire would receive a declaration of war on 5 May that would lead to its defeat in 1824. In support of the Greeks, Serbs and Wallachians, the Russian Black Sea and Baltic Fleets were readied for war, with two-fifths of the Baltic Fleet's major ships sent all the way into the Mediterranean in July 1823, escorting a few troopships in support of the Greek Revolution. The main Russian Army and the Black Sea Fleet would attack the Ottomans from Moldova, the Danube, the Black Sea and the Caucasus. Austria would support Serbian, Bosnian, Albanian and Montenegrin revolutionaries until Greece was reached, and would capture Epirus.

The Russian Baltic Fleet reached Navarino Bay on 18 November 1823 and demanded negotiations that lasted to 20 November 1823. When these failed, it destroyed the Ottoman Navy stationed in the harbour and captured all surviving ships. Greek survivors of Navarino rescued by the Russians would lead to greater Russian intervention for Greece and the Balkans. To the north, the Ottoman Empire was attacked from the Black Sea by Russian Army in Varna, Shumla and Silistra, having lost fortresses in Wallachia and Moldova to surrender after the Russian advance from the Ottoman border to the Danube and Balkan Ridge, but all the sieges failed over a period of August to November 1823 and the Russian Army retreated across the Danube by December 1823.

https://books.google.com.my/books?id=wy3TBAAAQBAJ&pg=PA254&dq=russian+ottoman+war+1828&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiw5sDCjeLaAhUFUbwKHf8-CjcQ6AEITjAH#v=onepage&q=russian ottoman war 1828&f=false

On 21 April 1824, the Russians, having retreated across the Danube, were counterattacked by the Ottomans and forced to retreat into Moldova, only to reach the Pruth defence line and defeat the Ottomans on 10 June. Afterwards, the Russians counterattacked and outflanked the Ottoman Army, which reached the Danube on 20 August, having been defeated by the Russians at the Pruth from 10-20 June with heavy losses incurred in the battle and off the Danube in late August.

In September 1824, the Russians marched across the Danube Plain and bypassed Black Sea fortresses and Shumla to reach Adrianople on 26 November 1824. Faced with heavy losses, the Ottomans surrendered on 25 December 1824, after Adrianople's surrender, with a treaty signed in the city. The treaty assigned Anape, Poti, present-day Georgia [Russian since 1800], the Caucasus north of the Caucasus Mountains, Wallachia and Moldova to the Russian Empire, demanded freedom of religion in the Ottoman Empire, the freedom for all Russian shipping and trade to use the Dardanelles and recognized Greek, Montenegrin and Serbian independence. Austrian gains were to be acknowledged, mostly in Bosnia, Albania and Serbia. The Ottomans in the east, having been distracted by war with Persia, could only watch as Russia annexed territory they had conquered in the 1823-1824 war for good.

Having received Austrian support, the Austrian Army marched into Bosnia in May 1823 and spent the summer of 1823 clearing up Bosnia, Serbia and Montenegro, entering Macedonia and Albania before the end of the year. In May 1824, the war was resumed with advances into Albania and Macedonia. Propaganda and encouraged desertions led to Austrian victory and in September, Durazzo and the Aegean were reached. The Ottomans were forced to evacuate Central Greece and Thessaly to deal with the Austrians in Salonika, who proceeded westwards to encircle Epirus and link up with the Austrians in Albania. After peace with the Russians was made, the Ottomans made peace with Austria on 25 February 1825, with winter determining the journey to negotiations.

The Ottomans also made peace with Greece on 5 April 1825, with the Russians intending to threaten Constantinople with the approach of spring in 1825 without Greek independence guaranteed. Newly independent Greece, with a Habsburg friendly king [Archduke Karl Ludwig, Archduke Joseph Franz having survived childhood in this scenario], would run from Arta to Volos in border, although Epirus and Thessaly were later given up to Austria and Greece as indefensible. Serbia gained Vardar Macedonia with its independence. The choice of an Austrian king had to be agreed upon with the Great Powers, but Ottoman massacres and solidarity gave impetus for diplomatic support and military neutrality towards Greece, Russia and Austria from the other Great Powers of 1815. Approval had to be consented from the Great Powers, but a Habsburg prince was the least potentially threatening prince from the Great Powers and consent for him to rule Greece with a constitution was approved by Greece and the Great Powers. The final treaty, the Treaty of Constantinople, was signed for an independent Greece on 31 January 1827 and rectified by 1 April of the same year.
 
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Egyptian-Ottoman Wars
Having been defeated in the Peloponnese and left without the best ships of his fleet when required to campaign for the Ottoman Empire in suppressing Greek rebels, Muhammad Ali of Egypt decided to invade Palestine and Syria. The Egyptian invasion began on 1 October 1827 and in May 1828, Acre ended up under his rule. After the fall of Acre, Muhammad Ali's army marched through Syria and defeated the Ottoman Army in Konya in January 1829, having used modern technology, efficient leadership and propaganda to support his rule. With Ottoman fears about Russia, Sultan Mahmud II hesitated, but eventually agreed to Russian assistance. The Russian threat ended Muhammad Ali's campaign, but in return for Russian support and ending the war against Muhammad Ali, the Ottoman Empire had to sign the Treaty of Hunkar Iskelesi on 30 July 1829, making the Ottoman Empire a Russian ally, and the Convention of Kutahya on 5 June 1829 with Muhammad Ali.

In June 1835, the Ottoman Army attempted to invade Egypt, but it suffered from defeat and the Egyptians marched onto the Ottoman Empire. With the chaos inflicted, the Great Powers of Britain, Prussia and Austria rallied behind the Ottoman Empire. Russia failed to support the Ottomans, the reason given being the intervention of Britain, Austria and Prussia and the massacres of 1821-1825. It was just the fact that Egypt was on the offensive against the Ottomans and the Russian desire to take Constantinople that led to initial diplomatic support for the Ottoman Empire. Eventually, the British would be the only power to engage Muhammad Ali with naval bombardments of the Levant and southern Turkey in 1836, resulting in Egypt surrendering captured war booty and territory to the Ottoman Empire [most of which having been captured only from Britain and the Ottomans]. This would make the Ottomans more trusting of the British and less trusting of the Egyptians and Russians when the peace treaty for the 1835-1837 Ottoman-Egyptian war was signed on 1 May 1837. The British also took advantage of the treaty to ban the usage of the Dardanelles [especially to enter the Black Sea and to ships returning to the Black Sea from the Dardanelles besides Russian ships] to non-Ottoman European nations apart from the Ottoman Empire and its wartime allies. Russia was effectively excluded from the Mediterranean.

During the same period as the Egyptian-Ottoman conflict, there were revolutions in France, Belgium, Switzerland, Portugal, Poland and Italy. All were successful, except for the revolts in Poland and Italy. This didn't take into account what was happening in Latin America as the last vestiges of juntas and colonial rule were wiped out from the ex-Spanish and Portuguese empires.
 
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The Crimean War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_War

Having been barred from access to the Mediterranean, the Russians would try to gain access another time. In 1848, a series of revolutions were crushed [Similar to real life, but with an independent Serbian nation supporting Russia and Austria in suppressing the Hungarian revolutionaries.]. After several religious crisis which revealed Ottoman lack of protection for Catholic and Orthodox Christians, the Russian Empire and its Romanian principalities proceeded to declare war on the Ottoman Empire on 20 July 1853, assisted by diplomatic negotiations. The war began with a nationalist uprising of Bulgarians and Romanian support for Bulgarian nationalists, assisted by a Russian landing on the Black Sea and the Russian troop advance into Romania with Romanian support. Eventually, by 20 October 1853, the battle of Foscani was fought and it ended with a Russian and Romanian victory followed by the crossing of the Danube by January 1854. The 1854 Russian spring campaign, after the surrender of Ottoman defences in northern Bulgaria, was supported by Greek and Serbian invasions into Ottoman Macedonia, besides the Russian and Romanian invasion of Ottoman Bulgaria itself, supported by Bulgarian nationalists. This, along with the naval battle of Sinop, would lead to planned British and French intervention in the Crimea, starting with a declaration of war on 2 April 1854.

The declaration of war would soon be followed by plans for an amphibious landing on the Crimea to disrupt Russian ambitions. While scheduled to begin on 8 September 1854, however, the landings were postponed when Russians captured Adrianople on 31 July 1854. Although the combined Anglo, French and Ottoman troops resisted the Russian siege of Constantinople [15 August 1854 to 13 March 1855] and sent the Russians on retreat, the Russians managed to halt all counterattacks when the Danube was reached on 3 July 1855. With inactivity in place, it was decided to make a landing on the Crimea to divert Russian attention.

However, the Crimean landings, which removed the British and French forces on the Danube front from the theatre, were useless when the Russians revived their offensive on 3 October 1855 and in 2.5 months' time, Adrianople was captured again, with Greek and Serbian support on the Russian southern flanks. The Russians were nearing Constantinople when the Ottomans sued for peace on 1 January 1856, the 1855 Crimean and Greek offensive blunders by Britain and France becoming fiascos and leading to war dissatisfaction in Britain and France, which would result in the peace treaty of San Stefano, soon to be Adrianople, being signed in Russia's favour, with all of Rumelia and Bulgaria being lost to Russia, which would have a friendly and permanent Mediterranean seaport despite Bulgarian protests. In Britain, the war was known as the 'Crimean War' due to the failure of the diversionary campaign against Russia in the Crimea to save the Ottoman Empire only hastening Ottoman defeat.
 
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Conclusion
In the aftermath of the Russian victory over the Ottomans in 1856, the Russians decided to expand their conquest to include Constantinople, and when it failed due to the Treaty of Adrianople, which left Turkish Thrace from Enos to Gallipoli to the Ottoman Empire, gave occupied Bulgaria a warm water port before annexing the provinces of Romania and Bulgaria into the Russian Empire for an uninterrupted warm water port access to Moscow in 1860. An Ottoman attempt to invade Bulgaria in 1877, after the successful Italian and German wars of unification, with an Austrian victory for the latter war, failed before the Ottomans were defeated by Russia in 1877, with Russia annexing all of Thrace's remnants (including Constantinople and the entire Dardanelles) into the Russian Empire, giving Russia complete access to their Mediterranean sea with the Ottomans out of Europe and defunct by 1919. This would be followed by Russian colonialism in East Africa, the Muslim world, Korea and China, with its negative consequences. In the aftermath of the Russian-Japanese War and WW1 from 1911 to 1916 and the Bolshevik Revolution of 1914 [3 years earlier than otl, along with the February Revolution against the Tsar], the Russians would lose their African and Far Eastern colonies, although the otl Asian part of Russia would become the RSFSR's Siberia and its Muslim regions would become Central Asian and Caucasian SSR's. Russia, in its Soviet and post Soviet republican form, would still remain a great power while weathering the Second World War, a Cold War and the post-Cold War collapse of the Soviet Union, the eastern Balkans [Romania and Bulgaria] having joined the Soviet Union as SSR's throughout the Soviet Union's existence from 1914 to 1991 before leaving the Soviet Union with the Baltic states, Belarus, Ukraine, the Caucasus SSR's and Soviet Central Asian SSR's in 1991 with the Soviet demise that year [3 years earlier and longer than real life].
 
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