Have Post-1848 Austria-Hungary Partitioned in a War or Series of Wars

So during the 1848 revolutions or after that period, what likely scenarios can occur where a bunch of nations and factions decide to gang up on Austria (or Austria-Hungary) and just partition the hell out of it? Who would participate in this? What would they gain? And how does this impact the history of Europe?
 
Either Hungary is victorious and remains independent which the remaining neighbouring states want to get their share of the pie.

Or Nicholas I dies fast. Constantine I or Alexander II consider Austria(-Hungary) as the bigger threat rather than focusing on the Balkans.
 
Either Hungary is victorious and remains independent which the remaining neighbouring states want to get their share of the pie.

Or Nicholas I dies fast. Constantine I or Alexander II consider Austria(-Hungary) as the bigger threat rather than focusing on the Balkans.

That would require Russia supporting Hungary and/or not supporting either faction but tries to gain territory.

I’d say when Austria is in a less stable position after 1848 is a good time for Russia to strike.
 
1848 you are having revolutions across Austro-Hungary so it is the moment to strike. If Nicholas I acts on the Hungarian side rather than Austrian then a breakup is on the cards. Nicolas will want something for his trouble and the obvious choice is Galicia. Adding the Western part to his polish lands and the Eastern to Ukraine would actually mirror in part what the Galicians wanted ( they OTL demanded the split in 1848 but as areas inside Austro-Hungary ) so possibly not too much local resistance.

Lombardy-Venetia was in revolt and wanting to join Italy, OTL they forced the Austrians out but Austria got an armistice with Piedmont and reoccupied. Austria doing worse, no armistice and the loss of its Italian lands is possible. There are also movements in most other areas. OTL the Austrians could divide and conquer whilst taking them down one by one, if Russia has intervened on the other side this might not be possible and the splits become permanent. Hungary also has splits and the price of independence could see some areas completely or partially independent.

Austria after this, it depends on if Big Germany or Small Germany wins the ideological race in Germany. OTL Small Germany won and Austria was considered separate but related, however a much smaller Austria would not be feared as able to be dominant and could end up as part of Germany.
 
1848 you are having revolutions across Austro-Hungary so it is the moment to strike. If Nicholas I acts on the Hungarian side rather than Austrian then a breakup is on the cards. Nicolas will want something for his trouble and the obvious choice is Galicia. Adding the Western part to his polish lands and the Eastern to Ukraine would actually mirror in part what the Galicians wanted ( they OTL demanded the split in 1848 but as areas inside Austro-Hungary ) so possibly not too much local resistance.

Lombardy-Venetia was in revolt and wanting to join Italy, OTL they forced the Austrians out but Austria got an armistice with Piedmont and reoccupied. Austria doing worse, no armistice and the loss of its Italian lands is possible. There are also movements in most other areas. OTL the Austrians could divide and conquer whilst taking them down one by one, if Russia has intervened on the other side this might not be possible and the splits become permanent. Hungary also has splits and the price of independence could see some areas completely or partially independent.

Austria after this, it depends on if Big Germany or Small Germany wins the ideological race in Germany. OTL Small Germany won and Austria was considered separate but related, however a much smaller Austria would not be feared as able to be dominant and could end up as part of Germany.

I’d also imagine that non-Hungarians in the Hungarian kingdom would also revolt at the same time, Slovaks, Croats, and Romanians would also take the time to revolt. Whether it’s with Russian help depends.
 
I’d also imagine that non-Hungarians in the Hungarian kingdom would also revolt at the same time, Slovaks, Croats, and Romanians would also take the time to revolt. Whether it’s with Russian help depends.
Most likely they rebel however i do think that Hungary will have russian support in crushing them and they will not own bosnia and herzegovinia so the population will not be as large so once order is restored it should nit be a problem and with Galicia gone then its an even stronger hungarian hold with less minority’s involved.

1848 you are having revolutions across Austro-Hungary so it is the moment to strike. If Nicholas I acts on the Hungarian side rather than Austrian then a breakup is on the cards. Nicolas will want something for his trouble and the obvious choice is Galicia. Adding the Western part to his polish lands and the Eastern to Ukraine would actually mirror in part what the Galicians wanted ( they OTL demanded the split in 1848 but as areas inside Austro-Hungary ) so possibly not too much local resistance.

Lombardy-Venetia was in revolt and wanting to join Italy, OTL they forced the Austrians out but Austria got an armistice with Piedmont and reoccupied. Austria doing worse, no armistice and the loss of its Italian lands is possible. There are also movements in most other areas. OTL the Austrians could divide and conquer whilst taking them down one by one, if Russia has intervened on the other side this might not be possible and the splits become permanent. Hungary also has splits and the price of independence could see some areas completely or partially independent.

Austria after this, it depends on if Big Germany or Small Germany wins the ideological race in Germany. OTL Small Germany won and Austria was considered separate but related, however a much smaller Austria would not be feared as able to be dominant and could end up as part of Germany.

Ooh this is interesting.
Very much agree on the first one. Nothing i can think of too add.

Ahh italy. So, if we see the break up of the empire then could we see Sardinia go blood hungry and try to grab as much as possible. while i doubt they could get Dalmatia they could push up to istria and possibly bozen. Which would have interesting effects.

I do think that if it does collapse the pan germanists would win out bismark would have to be very persuasive not too. If for some ungodly impossible reason austria ( which likely uncludes bohemia moravia) still gets into 1866 then there will be no holding back they will be split for their last territory and brung into the empire
 
Most likely they rebel however i do think that Hungary will have russian support in crushing them and they will not own bosnia and herzegovinia so the population will not be as large so once order is restored it should nit be a problem and with Galicia gone then its an even stronger hungarian hold with less minority’s involved.

Or Russia uses it as an excuse to annex Slavic lands and pretend to be the liberator of Slavs and Orthodox Christians and force Hungary to cede territory.
 
Austria-Hungary also holds Slovakia, Czechia, and Slovenia.
I did forget about slovenia but the others will not being going any where as czechia will likely remain apart of austria if not then it’s definitely under german influence russia will not be touching it. Slovakia is a maybe however i do think that it is unlikely as they weren’t really that rebellious and the other powers such as prussia is unlikely to let russia strip it. Slovenia om the other hand is likely to be stripped they were pushing for such. Though i am sure they will enjoy rubbing up against italy in istria
 
I did forget about slovenia but the others will not being going any where as czechia will likely remain apart of austria if not then it’s definitely under german influence russia will not be touching it. Slovakia is a maybe however i do think that it is unlikely as they weren’t really that rebellious and the other powers such as prussia is unlikely to let russia strip it. Slovenia om the other hand is likely to be stripped they were pushing for such. Though i am sure they will enjoy rubbing up against italy in istria

Czechia is Slavic. At most the German and Czech portions would be partitioned between Germany and Russia respectively. Slovakia would definitely be part of Russia. Though I could see Slovenia being either an independent puppet state of Germany or part of Germany.

Arguably what happened at the end of WWI, considering A-H ceased to be a thing and it was majority-replaced by this newly minted nation called Yugoslavia.

Pan-Slavism wasn’t a thing amongst the South Slavs before the 1890s though.
 
A realistic collapse of Austria in this time will see a Russian Galicia, an Independent Hungary holding Croatia, Transylvania, Slovakia and maybe dalmatia and a rump Austria consisting of Austria proper, Bohemia-moravia, Slovenia, probably dalmatia and likely for a short period of time before losing them the habsburg holdings in north Italy.
What's curious about this situation to me is what are the habsburgs next move? Do they throw themselves fully into Germany and hope that the relative lack of non germans in there realm will allow them to gain the support of the other German states? Do they try desperately to regain their lost Hungarian lands? Do they throw themselves fully into Italy instead?
All potentially quite interesting.
 
Let's say that it happens right after the Austrian defeat to Prussia, the Hungarians don't want cooperation and instead rebel against the monarchy. My take is:

Austria-Bohemia-Slovenia: Probably would go for Germany if Germany still is unified some years later as OTL.
Galicia-Lodomeria: Hungary probably wants it but can't get it, Russia also wants it, there is a chance of being kept by the Habsburgs in some form if the Habsburgs are denied entrance in Germany, but I doubt it, probably goes to Russia.
Slovakia: Goes to Hungary, simply.
Transilvania: Goes to Hungary initially, but the Romanians want it and probably are willing to make war for it.
Banat and Croatia: Goes to Hungary, but they are going to rebel immediately, Serbia will fight for those territories right away and probably will win.

Results:

Assuming that Prussia still unifies it will have many more Catholics to deal inside Germany, and the south Germans can rally under the leadership of Bavaria and Austria defeating completely the Bismarckian goal of a united Germany under the sole leadership of Prussia.
If Russia takes Galicia, they need to deal with a lot of Polish and Ruthenian people that are used to be "too free" for Russian tastes, not only that but I think that Britain and Germany are going to form an alliance against Russia. All the Balkans will fall into the Russia sphere of influence.
I think that Hungary is going to lose Croatia, Banat and Transylvania.
Maybe WW1 happens earlier as an escalation of another Russo-Ottoman war.

In the end I think that the biggest beneficiaries in TTL are the Romanians and the Bavarians (seriously), maybe the Serbians too if they can keep their new Yugoslavia together.

so possibly not too much local resistance.
The Polish want to be part of Poland, but not a Russian Poland, I don't know if they are going stage a revolt, but at least they are going to sulk a lot...
 
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Czechia is Slavic. At most the German and Czech portions would be partitioned between Germany and Russia respectively. Slovakia would definitely be part of Russia. Though I could see Slovenia being either an independent puppet state of Germany or part of Germany.
I do know its slavic however, The Prussians or really any other power will not let russia take it just because its slavic that was my point bohemia moravia has been considered apart of germany for a long time with it being smack bang between german states. Prussia would imeaditly intervene especially as this is not Hungary but a core part of hapsburgs domain. It is most likely to remain with austria as that is how most wanted it. Russia could annex Galicia and maybe force them too liberate the southern slavs but they cannot just rip hungary apart nobody would stand for it.
 
I do know its slavic however, The Prussians or really any other power will not let russia take it just because its slavic that was my point bohemia moravia has been considered apart of germany for a long time with it being smack bang between german states. Prussia would imeaditly intervene especially as this is not Hungary but a core part of hapsburgs domain. It is most likely to remain with austria as that is how most wanted it. Russia could annex Galicia and maybe force them too liberate the southern slavs but they cannot just rip hungary apart nobody would stand for it.

What about Slovakia?
 
What about Slovakia?
That i am not sure about it is traditionally been attached to Hungary not have were they particularly pushing for independence however its slavic nature and what would be its close proximity to what is the new russian border makes it an interesting one. It really depends on russian willingness to push and place reasouces necessary to do so and the other powers willingness to be defiant in the face of Russia. . In my honest opinion russia will let Hungary keep it and just try to keep Hungary in their sphere. The south slavs might also be attached to Hungary for the sake of ease fewer governments to influence. They are in a real threat to over extend if they were to force the issue. Its easier to let humans keep it especially as the south slavs would just be Croatia with Slovenia attached unless they are willing to take the ottomans on which would cause intervenion
 
That i am not sure about it is traditionally been attached to Hungary not have were they particularly pushing for independence however its slavic nature and what would be its close proximity to what is the new russian border makes it an interesting one. It really depends on russian willingness to push and place reasouces necessary to do so and the other powers willingness to be defiant in the face of Russia.

Russia can't push that far in one go, but the region could become a flashpoint when and if pan-slavism becomes stronger.

The south slavs might also be attached to Hungary for the sake of ease fewer governments to influence.

It is not easier for Russia to keep Croatia in Hungary, in fact it is a complete blunder for Russia if they do it. The Russians are not going to create new states, they are going to transfer territory, from Hungary to their own client states, because Hungary could fall into the German sphere of influence at any time, and even if they don't fall completely into the German lap, Hungary will always be balancing between the two spheres, meanwhile Serbia and Romania could be kept under the Russian influence much easier.

Its easier to let humans keep it

No love for centaurs I see... :biggrin:

the south slavs would just be Croatia with Slovenia attached

At any POD possible after 1848 Serbia is already independent.

Slovenia attached

Slovenia goes with Austria, that is almost certain.
 
Russia can't push that far in one go, but the region could become a flashpoint when and if pan-slavism becomes stronger.



It is not easier for Russia to keep Croatia in Hungary, in fact it is a complete blunder for Russia if they do it. The Russians are not going to create new states, they are going to transfer territory, from Hungary to their own client states, because Hungary could fall into the German sphere of influence at any time, and even if they don't fall completely into the German lap, Hungary will always be balancing between the two spheres, meanwhile Serbia and Romania could be kept under the Russian influence much easier.



No love for centaurs I see... :biggrin:



At any POD possible after 1848 Serbia is already independent.



Slovenia goes with Austria, that is almost certain.
I certainly agree with you
On all of it however, iwas responding to a specific possible outcome so had too keep that in mind. In truth i hold the say view.
Sorry about the humans that was an auto correct as i was on my phone
 
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