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I'm curious what others think would happen to the Hashemites and the Kingdom of Hejaz under a Central Powers victory in WWI. We know that they established themselves as a nation prior to the end of the war, but would a Central Victory in 1918 negate their independence from the Ottomans?

I know this was discussed in Harry Turtledove's TL-191 series and that their rebellion was quelled by the Ottomans, but I have a feeling the Ottoman Empire would still collapse and wouldn't have the power to maintain control over them.

I also feel that while the Hejaz had the support of the British, they wouldn't receive as much physical support from them after they become truly independent. As a result, while I believe that they would be able to hold back the House of Saud in this timeline, they wouldn't have the ability to completely crush them and would be forced to recognize them as a sovereign state.

What would happen to both afterwards is really up to the butterflies at that point. However, I've heard people suggest that there is a chance of Baathism rising in the region after the discovery of oil. It might even create a second war between the Hejaz and the Sauds and even drag other powers who want to be allies for the oil benefits.
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