Hashemite/Hejaz Arabia under Central Victory?

I'm curious what others think would happen to the Hashemites and the Kingdom of Hejaz under a Central Powers victory in WWI. We know that they established themselves as a nation prior to the end of the war, but would a Central Victory in 1918 negate their independence from the Ottomans?

I know this was discussed in Harry Turtledove's TL-191 series and that their rebellion was quelled by the Ottomans, but I have a feeling the Ottoman Empire would still collapse and wouldn't have the power to maintain control over them.

I also feel that while the Hejaz had the support of the British, they wouldn't receive as much physical support from them after they become truly independent. As a result, while I believe that they would be able to hold back the House of Saud in this timeline, they wouldn't have the ability to completely crush them and would be forced to recognize them as a sovereign state.

What would happen to both afterwards is really up to the butterflies at that point. However, I've heard people suggest that there is a chance of Baathism rising in the region after the discovery of oil. It might even create a second war between the Hejaz and the Sauds and even drag other powers who want to be allies for the oil benefits.
 
The Turks likely write off Arabia as a lost cause. The UK is going nowhere, even with a CP victory.

Depends on when the war ends. If the war ends anytime before 1917, most of the arabian lands are hold. If it happens in 1918, at least Mosul Vilayet is still in their hands.

Edit: never mind, I've seen him talking about 1918.
 
I'm curious what others think would happen to the Hashemites and the Kingdom of Hejaz under a Central Powers victory in WWI. We know that they established themselves as a nation prior to the end of the war, but would a Central Victory in 1918 negate their independence from the Ottomans?

I know this was discussed in Harry Turtledove's TL-191 series and that their rebellion was quelled by the Ottomans, but I have a feeling the Ottoman Empire would still collapse and wouldn't have the power to maintain control over them.

I also feel that while the Hejaz had the support of the British, they wouldn't receive as much physical support from them after they become truly independent. As a result, while I believe that they would be able to hold back the House of Saud in this timeline, they wouldn't have the ability to completely crush them and would be forced to recognize them as a sovereign state.

What would happen to both afterwards is really up to the butterflies at that point. However, I've heard people suggest that there is a chance of Baathism rising in the region after the discovery of oil. It might even create a second war between the Hejaz and the Sauds and even drag other powers who want to be allies for the oil benefits.

What reason would there be for the Ottomans to collapse? The Arab rebels weren't much more than some tribes from the Hedjaz.

God, why do people think the Ottomans will always collapse with the least problem?
 
What reason would there be for the Ottomans to collapse? The Arab rebels weren't much more than some tribes from the Hedjaz.

God, why do people think the Ottomans will always collapse with the least problem?
Cliche. I've always wanted a TL where the Ottoman's get their house in order and become a major player again.
 
A CP "victory" can be anything from simply undefeated in a stalemate to outright conquest of East Europe and/or France. This onion has layers to peel back and the more you peel the more things can stay antebellum. The Ottomans are not more likely than not to collapse, in my opinion the Ottomans have more than enough life if not subject to being dismembered. With the UK at war with the Ottomans I think you indeed see strong motivation to try seizure of the Mesopotamian oil country and to get hold of the Holy Land, for both cultural and strategic purposes. Hejaz had some usefulness in further securing the Read Sea and shielding Egypt. But Arab independence and a Hashemite Kingdom are virtually meaningless to the British once the war ends.

First I would argue that Britain will permanently carve off Cyprus, Kuwait and Egypt, ending even the pretense of protectorate or affiliation with the Ottomans. But beyond that you have a CP "victory" and the Germans have a dog in this hunt. Assuming Russia is gone and France is begging for an end that does not destroy her, only Britain can stand firm, yet for what? Without an active front to the West and the end of hostilities to the East, our Germany at least on paper can fight on for position in the Middle East. But I suspect we do not need more war to get the settlements. Here you no longer have the "let's carve up Turkey" party, Britain gets serious about its interests.

Next I will offer that a broken Ottoman Empire is not paying back the debts or in shape to stay in debt to Britain. Here the Hashemite are best served to go back to loyal subjects and gain whatever autonomy they can. Hejaz is the Holy Cities so the Ottomans really do have motivation to get it back and Britain is playing with fire trying to keep it. In exchange for Egypt the Hejaz is a worthless bit of sand. Saud is useless once war ends and easy to toss to the Ottomans, they were a threat to Aden or Kuwait of the Trucial States in any event so no loyalty there. It is the Holy Land and Iraq that get far more attention. In a CP victory I tend to think the Arabs reverse sides and abandon the British, that undermines their land grab, with Germany barking too Britain worries more for Europe and the global picture, even Iraqi oil can be returned to the pre-war Britain dominate, Germany the left overs. The Ottomans can hobble on and the Arabs remain as divided, disaffected yet more loyal to the Caliph than each other as always. For me the Ottomans are oddly the most likely to end up where they began.
 
Even if the CPs will have enough forces to meddle in Arabia, the gulf area with all the oil will be more interesting than Hejaz. Also, they should be smart enough to know that the Muslims would object messing with their holy cities.
 
You can see from how they screwed Faisal over Syria, that the Allies in victory were not that bothered about promises made to Arabs

Now, if we allow the best outlook for this thread - the Michael offensive succeeds, France collapses, the US forces in Europe are defeated, France falls, and civil unrest in Britain leads to accepting a peace on the continent, that the US ends up going along with...

Then it stands to reason that British forces are going to be withdrawn IMMEDIATELY from Palestine, Iraq etc because they are going to be needed elsewhere to deal with revolt, rebellion and unrest

Germany still has E Europe from Brest-Litovsk, and is on a high, but money is not good

So, you COULD get a situation where for SOME YEARS the Ottomans and their German allies don't worry too much about the Hejaz
 
You can see from how they screwed Faisal over Syria, that the Allies in victory were not that bothered about promises made to Arabs

It may have been mutual.

Many years ago I read a newspaper article (in the Times iirc) stating that almost to the end of the war Faisal[1] was in correspondence with Constantinople, keeping his options open to revert to the Turkish side in the event of a CP victory.

[1] Or possibly his father Sherif Hussein. It's been a long time since I read it.
 
What reason would there be for the Ottomans to collapse? The Arab rebels weren't much more than some tribes from the Hedjaz.

God, why do people think the Ottomans will always collapse with the least problem?
Cliche. I've always wanted a TL where the Ottoman's get their house in order and become a major player again.

Also, in our era of ethnically and linguistically anchored nation states there's both a cultural bias against multinational empires and lack of practical observation and experiences (to say nothing of formal education) of the practices that make them work. How you see something can depend a lot on where you stand.

But yes; the OE getting itself together is a favorite of mine as well. Might I suggest With the Crescent Above Us? ( https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/with-the-crescent-above-us.271993/)
 
Also, in our era of ethnically and linguistically anchored nation states there's both a cultural bias against multinational empires and lack of practical observation and experiences (to say nothing of formal education) of the practices that make them work. How you see something can depend a lot on where you stand.

But yes; the OE getting itself together is a favorite of mine as well. Might I suggest With the Crescent Above Us? ( https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/with-the-crescent-above-us.271993/)

And on the tangent, we see so little faith in the Austro-Hungarian Empire, perhaps also why we see less support for Russia (Imperial/USSR/Whatever) doing better as more than the core, and why today the EU looks so hard to hold together.
 
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