Harun al-Rashid and Nikephoros I clash decisively 806

Lets say due to intelligence failures, Nikephoros I finds himself blundering into the decisive battle he was trying to avoid and is pincered by Harun al-Rashid in the resulting Battle.

Nikephoros I, Muhammad ibn Harun al-Rashid, and Harun al-Rashid are all killed in the Battle, the Byzantine Army is destroyed and Anatolia now lies open.

Abū'l-ʿAbbās ʿAbdallāh al-Ma'mūn ibn Hārūn al-Rashīd is now the Caliph.

So:

1. Who succeeds Nicky?
2. What does he do with the Bulgars on one side and al-Ma'mūn on the other?
3. al-Ma'mūn Can slice off what he wants, but does he go for Constantinople or just sticks to what he grab outside of Constantinople?
4. Does the loot prospects deter a Khurasan Revolt because they realize more profit to be had in going to Anatolia under al-Ma'mūn's banner and potentially getting good booty and new lands.
5. al-Ma'mūn initiated a lot reforms that never quite managed to complete before he croaked, could a longer time ruling enable critical reforms to go through and stick?
 
3. It depends on what he actually takes and how successful he is. Anatolia was so heavily defended and militarized and following the Unayyad period and the autonomy of tribes like the Uqaylid on the Byzantine border. The precedence however would suggest to go after Constantinople, while this is a losing strategy comparatively, it is what the Umayyad period experienced and was the goal of the Islamic state and the acquisition of such was the zeitgeist of the previous era, if such a movement towards conquest was made likely these feelings would resurface.

4. Doubtful. The Abbasid period was known for (beginning mainly with al-Ma'mun) is noted for its lack of support for tribes and sponsoring raids except in regards to Ethiopia and on islands in some cases. Further, the way the Islamic state was composed at the time made it to where in general tribes and soldiers stayed within their domain expanding towards their intended goal. This was a system set in place by the Umayyad attempting to constantly expand its territory in all directions. Further ibn Layath has little reason to go west, his sentiment has nothing to do with loot and more to do with ambition as was common for this time period.

5. What type of reforms? Increased Mihna? He did most out of any Caliph to weaken in the long run the Abbasid state causing massive anti Mu'Tazila and Abbasid sentiment in which there was originally little dissent. It was his reign that set the Abvasid state on the path to Anarchy. So....
 
Would Staurakios and Michael Rangabe be accompanying (and presumably dying) with Nikephoros' army?

If Staurakios is back in Constantinople (or just survives the battle) he'd theoretically succeed his father as sole emperor, though whether people feel any loyalty to the son (-in-law in the case of Michael) of the guy who just got the Byzantine army wiped out is questionable. There's also religious icono-clast/-duel stuff to consider.

If Staurakios and Michael both die there's Michael's kids (and Nikephoros' grand kids), but they're teens at most and given the chaotic situation they'd probably be shunted aside in favour of someone with military experience. Prokopia could theoretically take a second husband to give someone legitimacy/get a protector (in the form of a regent/co-emperor) for her kids. She managed to scheme and get her husband the throne as Staurakios was dying IOTL, so she might be able to pull something off.

There's also Euphrosyne, daughter of Constantine VI, floating around and she can be married to present the fiction of dynastic continuity (IOTL she married Michael II the Amorian). Some male Isaurians (uncles of Constantine VI) are still alive but they've been blinded and exiled by Irene so can't regain the throne.

OTL's emperor Leo V is also floating around (was he involved in a rebellion against Nikephoros in 803?). Leo's comrade-in-arms and OTL murderer Michael the Amorian is also somewhere.

Ultimately the crown ends up with whoever can reimpose some sense of order and make some effort to retain Anatolia (or whoever manages to seize power in Constantinople).
 
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