Harold Wilson: Crash and Burn

When Harold Wilson became Prime Minister for the third time in March 1974 he led a Labour government with no overall majority. His first major parliamentary test was to win the debate on the Queens's speech.

Labour was outnumbered by the Conservatives, Liberals and smaller parties.
My POD is this:

If the government had lost the motion would Wilson have felt compelled to resign?
 
I think he'd have to, as he would have clearly lost control of the situation - there's no way a Queen's Speech would be tabled without his being sure the Liberals and Nats would back it by abstention or support. If it fell, something would've happened in those final hours before it was tabled and consequently a lot of men's words would mean nothing for the rest of their political careers - but Harold's would be over, in Labour and nationally, for 'letting this happen'.

The butterflies from the above vote dictate whether Foot, Jenkins or Callaghan succeeds him as leader.
 
I think he'd have to, as he would have clearly lost control of the situation - there's no way a Queen's Speech would be tabled without his being sure the Liberals and Nats would back it by abstention or support. If it fell, something would've happened in those final hours before it was tabled and consequently a lot of men's words would mean nothing for the rest of their political careers - but Harold's would be over, in Labour and nationally, for 'letting this happen'.

The butterflies from the above vote dictate whether Foot, Jenkins or Callaghan succeeds him as leader.

Foot had only just become Employment Secretary which as we both know was his first cabinet role.

It would be a battle of the right between Jenkins and Callaghan. The left would be isolated.
 
Foot had only just become Employment Secretary which as we both know was his first cabinet role.

It would be a battle of the right between Jenkins and Callaghan. The left would be isolated.

Foot would have a shot. In 1976 he'd 'only' been in the cabinet two years, but, bluntly, he was still Michael Fucking Foot. That's why he came second to Jim.
 
Hmm. It's possible that the Callaghan/Foot team might have started 2 years earlier.

But whoever became PM would have the devil's own job.
 
There were two elections that year anyway; would it make all that much difference if Wilson lost the debate?
 
Interesting idea. I want to pick up a couple of points.

I don't think Wilson would be "done" just because the vote on the Queen's Speech failed. All such a failure proves is that there's no majority in the House and there needs to be another election if the government wants to pass new legislation - this hasn't happened since the 1920s (though 1950 was close), but was a fairly regular occurence before that. Wilson wasn't done after Labour lost the election in 1970, and Labour doesn't have any history of ditching leaders. There might be a leadership challenge but it's still going to be very risky for the challenger (too risky for Callaghan), and Wilson is still going to be the favourite not least because there's no obviously viable alternative, no candidate who seems capable of both keeping the party together and broadening its electoral appeal. That being said, he might decide to go now rather than fight on - but it is his choice and I suspect he won't do that until there's a viable successor.

Secondly, Michael Foot wasn't new to the frontbench in 1974 - he'd been in the Shadow Cabinet since 1970, and would have been in the Cabinet in the 60s were it not for his insistence on democracy over patronage (he didn't want to be appointed to the front bench and be beholden to the leader, he wanted to wait until he could run successfully in a Shadow Cabinet election). And if there were a leadership election and he did conclude that he was too new to run, then the leadership of the left would almost certainly rest with Barbara Castle. She almost certainly wouldn't do as well as Foot but I'm certain she'd go for it if he wasn't; it would not be a straight battle of the right.

(Also, it's the second time Wilson has become PM, not the third.)
 
Hmm, A lot of it would be down to Wilson's ego. I'm not going to get into a debate about Wilson's supposed paranoia. But it seems to me, based on the replies that Wilson would plough on.

However some kind of bargaining would have to be done to get the legislation through. It would be hugely humiliating though had he lost.
 
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