Hapsburgs gain the Crown of Aragon in the war of Spanish Succession

Could the Hapsburgs gain the Spanish parts of the Crown of Aragon in the war of Spanish Succession

How would this effect European politics

What would be the impact on Spain
 
I think you would then see a Franco-Castillian alliance form against Aragon. At some point in the XVIII century it probably is conquered.
 
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Vitruvius

Donor
It would be hard to achieve since both sides were firmly committed to the conquest of all of Spain. Best scenario I could come up with is that the allies accept a French peace proposal around 1710 to give Spain to Charles in exchange for Naples for Philip. Unlike OTL they don't demand the French actually invade Spain to remove Philip and commit to undertake that themselves, maybe with the imposition of French subsidies or some concessions along the northern border to act as surety that the French will abide by the peace and not aid Philip. It's hard to come up with a plausible way of doing this, which is why it didn't happen OTL. Anyways the allies continue the campaign in Spain with the Netherlands and Italy now quiet. They don't make much headway as a large part of the Austrian and Dutch armies are deployed in occupation of the Netherlands and Italy to stand guard against French perfidy. Charles is forced to leave Barcelona and return to Vienna to succeed his brother Joseph as Emperor further stalling momentum. The British quickly loose interest as they indeed did OTL and ultimately the war ends in some kind of Truce around 1716-18 when the Ottomans (maybe with surreptitious French support) start making trouble in the Balkans and Eastern Mediterranean. So Philip retains Castile, Navarre etc and Charles has Aragon, Valencia and Catalonia. The Austrians retain the whole Spanish Italy, nominally pending a formal treaty to end the war. Other issues potentially unresolved would be Bavaria and/or compensation for Savoy. both sides view the truce as merely temporary and refuse to relinquish their claims to the other half of Spain.

As a result a Habsburg Aragon would be pretty untenable. Just from a strategic perspective it has hostile territory to the north and west in Bourbon France and Spain (Castile). The Bourbon government in Madrid would develop a strong revanchist attitude towards Aragon and if Charles is King there it's likely to be reciprocated as he was pretty unwilling OTL to surrender Spain and with a foothold there and the prospect of ultimate triumph just another campaign away he'd probably always be waiting for round two (or three or four). In other words both Philip and Charles would consider themselves to be rightful King of Spain and regard the other as a usurper in control of a rebellious territory rather than seeing themselves as brother monarchs, Kings of Castile and Aragon. This sets up an existential problem. Neither side really wants Aragon to exist as an independent country. Certainly not Madrid and not likely the Habsburgs either. The Bourbons aren't likely to accept merely Castile as sufficient compensation for Philip (although the alternative of sending him off to Naples ans Sicily can't truly be seen as a better) and so another war will inevitably be fought to overturn the partition.

As a result the Habsburg administration isn't likely to do much to foster an independent state and instead will gear everything towards reconquest of the rest of Spain, ie for the Habsburgs the sole strategic imperative will be to retake Madrid. This might not be a mistake as it may not be strategically viable to maintain it as a separate state through a purely defensive posture in the face of sustained Franco-Spanish aggression. So instead keeping the state on a war footing with the reconquest/reunification of Spain may be the best path forward (the best defense being a good offense) if however, still not a very good one. Unfortunately it's not likely to endear Charles to his subjects when he continues to proclaim himself King of Spain (rather than merely Aragon) and imposes taxes or quarters troops in Aragon in support of reconquering Madrid. The Habsburgs would also have to contend with the fact that Aragon really isn't a unified sub unit in the way, say Naples or Sicily was. You have Catalonia and it's privileges and Valencia which was still nominally a separate Kingdom with it's own Viceroyalty. So if it's governed from Vienna you'd have a essentially three Viceroys which will really weaken Habsburg control yet any attempt to centralize them would likely be met with local opposition.

Aside from the internal strategic and political considerations Aragon would be hard to manage as a component of the Habsburg empire. Assuming Charles still succeeds his brother Joseph then he'll return to Austria and Aragon would be administered by some Viceroy (or, as mentioned, by a trio of Viceroys) in the same manner as Naples and Sicily and the Austrians were not particularly successful there. And, if in the course of peace negotiations, the Austrians are forced to barter away peaces of Spanish Italy (say to Savoy or maybe even Bavaria) then the control of distant Aragon becomes even more tenuous. On the other hand, in some ways, it would be even worse if Charles doesn't succeed Joseph as he'd have such an unwieldy collection of realms; Aragon, Sardinia, Sicily, Naples, Milan and the Southern Netherlands. There'd be no clear center of gravity and no single state is large enough to dominate or direct the others. The Netherlands in particular would be difficult if not impossible to manage.

I think the most likely outcome is that an ATL equivalent to the War of the Quadruple Alliance flares up in the 1720s and the issue is resolved either with the Habsburgs or the Bourbons expelled from a reunited Spain. If the Bourbons win (the more likely scenario) they strip Aragon and Catalonia of all rights and privileges and try to integrate them into a more centralized, united Spain. Since Philip did much of this OTL not too much changes here. But the brief interlude of Aragonese 'independence' might serve as king of rallying cry for future nationalist movements perhaps even to a greater extent in Aragon proper and Valencia than has been seen in OTL. If the Habsburgs win (the less likely scenario) the re-united Spain might trend more towards a personal union of different realms. Unfortunately it's probably also weaker than OTL without any of the Bourbon reforms and likely France continues to pick away at territories on it's northern frontier (Guipuzcoa or maybe more parts of Navarre).
 
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