Hapsburg led-Spring of Nations proposal

[Van555]

I know this has been done before, but bear with me here I'm going to do it again but this time I want make it more realistic or at least not a utopia.

This may be kind of done to death but I do have a few goals.

What you will hopefully see:

1. a pretty successful Spring of Nations Led by the Hapsburg dynasty on their thrones

2. A Group of nation-states that a pretty liberal and federal but not without problems or partisanship. Things like Balkan troubles

This group Will consist of the following as of right now:

a. German Empire- Bigger German Solution (Plus Slovenia probably) Federal in structure,a typical success story

b. Italian kingdom/Empire- Consisting of Modern Day Italy and some extra bits.
mostly successful, but some North/south divide and mob.

c. Hungarian Kingdom- consisting of the Hungarian part of the never to be in ITTL Austria-Hungarian empire, Some ethnic trouble, nearly the weak link in the group.

d. Polish kingdom- Galacia and hopefully Most of Posen, ethnic trouble and I fear most unlikely hopefully this is possible.

What you may see?

1. More successful Slavic conference (with some German support)

2. Independent Czech state ( at least con-federal to be sure)

3. Polish colonies! ( hey why not?)

4. A tiny bit of Americaighwank ( more successful Gadsen purchase + Baja, maybe faster civil war)

5. Possible Ottoman empire collapse: But No megali idea for Greece, and it may not happen.

6. Something Happening in South America for once it gets ignored too much.

7. United Scandinavian Nation: Possibly with Finland too but then Again that may be pie in the sky. I'll need more research on everything.

8. Strong china? - hey it could happen.

9. United India/balkanized Russia- Could also... actually I have to backtrack for now too much thinking in the future.

What You Won't see and if I try It call me it out on it!

1.Successful Confederacy- It's overdone, I dislike Slaveholders, and they couldn't have won without foreign Aid.

2. U.S. Annexed Canada, Australia, or New Zealand- surprisingly Even as a normally Pro American Wank person, I have concluded no joining the revolution means no North American states of America in the cards. This however mean that a free trade agreement or at worst a Republic for the commonwealth states are not possible.

P.S:The U.S. Won't be a utopia but it will not be fascist or go on the same side as the unlikely revanchist Britain and France just to have a WW2.

3. No unnecessarily convergent history- I'm not a Turtledove type author, so it will be a rather academic style timeline. I may add a biography snippet or maybe a bit of in- character things but don't count on it... I know i'm not an Edt or anyone that good but I don't wan't to be a 1492 x happened type either. Probably no Cold war either come to think of it.

4. Constantly asking for maps To be made for Me I'll go it alone unless someone offers.

OK... wow that was pretty long I'll Get started soon but I definitely want and need comments especially constructive criticism, I won't take personally.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

HMMM, Alright lets see where you go with this, Il be following.

 

[Van555]

Most excellent good Sir... now I Must research

By the way is any of that Legible up there I hope it is because i Hope to see responses to the specifics of the proposal so I can iron out something not ghastly in form.

Especially in form of how in a non ASB way I can get the Hapsburges too accept nationalism

 

[Van555]

I Guess people our probably waiting for it to start, but any thoughts on it befoe I Begin Tomorrow will be appreciated.

 

[Eurofed]

I know this has been done before, but bear with me here I'm going to do it again but this time I want make it more realistic or at least not a utopia.

Although for Europe at least, this is very likely going to yield a brighter outcome than OTL (if you aren't an Entente fanboy, that is).

a. German Empire- Bigger German Solution (Plus Slovenia probably) Federal in structure,a typical success story

Yup, Slovenia wouldn't likely go anywhere else.

b. Italian kingdom/Empire- Consisting of Modern Day Italy and some extra bits.
mostly successful, but some North/south divide and mob.

Earlier unification under a federal model and economic union with Germany in all likelihood is going to substantially accelerate Italian industrialization (by a century, more or less) and diminish (although not entirely nullify) the north/south divide and the resulting mob problems. In short, with this PoD, Italy is very likely to be a success story as big as Germany, adjusted for dimensions and potential of course. Borders are also very likely to be better than modern ones.

c. Hungarian Kingdom- consisting of the Hungarian part of the never to be in ITTL Austria-Hungarian empire, Some ethnic trouble, nearly the weak link in the group.

Much of its outcome depends on how much and how fast the Magyar ruling elites realizes that a federal evolution is necessary. Hopefully, its partners may prod it in that direction after a while, given that both are federal states.

d. Polish kingdom- Galacia and hopefully Most of Posen, ethnic trouble and I fear most unlikely hopefully this is possible.

Yeah. Although hopefully not too much trouble if there is timely reunification with Congress Poland (the Kresy is possible but not a given) and partition of Posen.

2. Independent Czech state ( at least con-federal to be sure)

A confederal solution with Germany is possible (given that Germany shall be a federal state, it would essentially be a special status within the federation) but it requires either genuine power sharing between the Czech and the Germans or giving the Sudetenland to Germany. Full independence is close to ASB given a 1848 PoD and a successful Germany.

3. Polish colonies! ( hey why not?)

Sure, but then by all means Hungarian colonies, too.

4. A tiny bit of Americaighwank ( more successful Gadsen purchase + Baja, maybe faster civil war)

Other natural candidates are the Dominican Republic and Cuba.

5. Possible Ottoman empire collapse: But No megali idea for Greece, and it may not happen.

Fine with me.

6. Something Happening in South America for once it gets ignored too much.

Making Argentina a success story ?

7. United Scandinavian Nation: Possibly with Finland too but then Again that may be pie in the sky. I'll need more research on everything.

Scandinavism was actually quite popular for a while around and soon after the PoD. The early success of the national revolutions in continental Europe might easily butterfly it into critical mass.

8. Strong china? - hey it could happen.

With a little butterfly flutter, the Self-Strenghtening Movement could become a parallel (or an alernative) to the Meji reforms. Just throw Empress Dowager Cixi under a bus.

1.Successful Confederacy- It's overdone, I dislike Slaveholders, and they couldn't have won without foreign Aid.

Yeah, France in all likelihood has bigger problems in Europe, and Britain may not bother as IOTL.

2. U.S. Annexed Canada, Australia, or New Zealand- surprisingly Even as a normally Pro American Wank person, I have concluded no joining the revolution means no North American states of America in the cards. This however mean that a free trade agreement or at worst a Republic for the commonwealth states are not possible.

This makes Eurofed a sad panda, but OW already did it, so I can understand the need for variety (special kudos from me if America can still grab Western Canada, however). I would just remark that if the British Empire suffers an hard fall, a confederal EU-like union of America and the White Dominions is not so implausible.

P.S:The U.S. Won't be a utopia but it will not be fascist or go on the same side as the unlikely revanchist Britain and France just to have a WW2.

Understood. However as revanchism goes, it is a good AH rule of thumb that it takes two trashings for a defeated great power to learn its lesson. The rule has a lot of plausible exceptions of course. Another even more reliable AH rule is that major wars among rival great powers in the pre-nuclear age tend to occur in a generational cycle, every 20-40 years or so.

3. No unnecessarily convergent history

Understood. Just do not fall in the opposite mistake of making history unreasonably highly-chaotic for the sake of it. If TTL socio-economic or geopolitical impersonal forces call for something to happen similar to OTL or an ATL clichè, it is is probably good for it to happen, unless it conflicts with the story you mean to tell, in such a case it is right to call plausible alternative outcomes into being. As it concerns noteworthy historical figures, butterflies affect them in a ripple effect in space and time, so no events directly limited to Europe necessarily changing the careers of people in America within a decade, nor list of US Presidents wholly the same after a century. If events call for a noteworthy historical figure to do something similar to OTL long after the PoD, it is probably OK to change name, faces, and background details, but make the rest a parallel.

 

[Nivek]

The Good Liberal-Socialist some facist Europeism Cliche

Your List overpass the List of Premade Cliche by OVER 9000(at least you don't create the confederates. ) and the problems

THE PRUSSIANS... GOD THE PRUSSIANS. THEY HATE THE IDEA OF THE Frankfurt Parliament Since the Start(all their actions was to won time and destroy the liberal and give some consolation prize... and the Prussian Constitution is the lovechild of that) and again the main obstacle ever.

the point one by one:

1. That is the main theme of TTL

2. Against the Balkans Problems(who are regionalist secessionism backed by a foreing power) are less to ocure.. but some can happen, and internal an political shocks too.

a. Slovenia didn't exist as a state.. only as province and ethnic region.. can easily be asimilated

b. The North-South Problems is a big Issue(unlike Italian mary-sue utopia Eurofed's like thinking) but solve with the POD and some internal change(again the South is ultra agrarian without resource.. before the massification of Tourism and Terciary Sector)

c. the magyar are ultra-reactionaries(and that is the only powerbase in the kingdom) but again can be solved internally(external meddling can make bad blood)

D. Posen in the Kingdom of Poland IS ASB WITH THE POD... YOU NEED TO DESTROY THE PRUSSIAN FOR THAT...

in the way may see(a lot of cliche)

1. The Slavs are trouble-makers(ask the Austrians, Ottomans and etc in OTL) and they always are seeing as the vassals of the Tsar... unless you make an inversion(like the Kaiser of all The Slavs or some similar) the German will accepted the Slavs as a minority but not support some plan who can make problems in their allies(Hungary) or another nations(Ottomans,etc)

2. Support Eurofed idea but very unlikely... The Checzs as a 'peasant dialect' don't have a revival until after the fail 1848 and the defeat of Austria after the Seven Week War

3 Who Which Sea Acess?)(an crazy idea... Merge Prussia east of the Oder with Poland as an Prusso-Poland Kingdom as a reward to the Hohenzollern.. in that way can solve the problem)

4. I never comment about the Gringos(personal Problems) but if the english speaker want to rape more mexico & central american and the Carribean... be free but realistic..

5. Alert of Cliche.. by Cliche being Subvertedeek:)... I'm Not Pasha.. but again.. the Ottomans unless severe crushed by the russian... is very unlikely to collapse(even the Prussia can find a safe-heaven in the more conservative and pro-prussian ottomans.. ask Moltke the Elder) being ASB without Good Explained(you have as rival russia... the ottomans is the natural enemy russia... so is my ally...that is Historical Laws.. see the WW1)

6. That give me hopes... but again with the gringo meddling that will be temporal(besides Dom Pedro Kepping his throne)

7. Pan-Scandivanism was at rise in that Era... and with having a more powerful Germany in the south... the King of Denmark can swallow his pride and ask for friendship to Gustav of Sweden

8. Like Eurofed say.. but again... the SSM suffer sabotage from the Imperial Power(who a weak and tributary China than an stroger one) but again.. throw an dice...

9. That need more study and effect of the butterflies

In general the people here can flame me of spoil the fun or similar(dress with a Flame-proof vest) but i'm want for pausabilty... and we can have pausability... but have to solve some problem of background and the true effect of the butterflies...

I'm Not aN Utopist, I'm realist... the thing in the world are hard and rule by a lot of force who we can't manage even to understand...

Again have my support and a critic here... start with the project

ATT
Nivek von Beldo

P.S Why always the Italian wankage(several discussion with italians let me tu undertand why...)

 

[Eurofed]

Got an idea to make the deal more palatable to the Prussians. What if the Habsburg, in order to have Prussian assent to the German unification, compromise a bit with the partition of their lands, and give the throne of Galicia to an Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen ? It would be an obvious placeholder for the throne of whole Poland, and the Habsburg may add under the table guarantees to support a Hohenzollern candidate for the throne of the United Baltic Duchies. A placeholder bid for controlling Poland (and the UBD) seems a more workable deal than an unwieldy co-rulership within Poland, and it seems to me that FWIV and Bismarck might accept the deal. The Habsburg still keep the thrones of Germany, Italy, and Hungary (the fourth child was a embarassing wreck from a 19th century PoV anyway).

Nivek, this idea goes along with the feasible parts of your proposal, without the thrice-ASB part of detaching Pomerania and Silesia and adding them to Poland, which no sane German would consent to.

 

[Nivek]

Got an idea to make the deal more palatable to the Prussians. What if the Habsburg, in order to have Prussian assent to the German unification, compromise a bit with the partition of their lands, and give the throne of Galicia to an Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen ? It would be an obvious placeholder for the throne of whole Poland, and the Habsburg may add under the table guarantees to support a Hohenzollern candidate for the throne of the United Baltic Duchies. A placeholder bid for controlling Poland (and the UBD) seems a more workable deal than an unwieldy co-rulership within Poland, and it seems to me that FWIV and Bismarck might accept the deal. The Habsburg still keep the thrones of Germany, Italy, and Hungary (the fourth child was a embarassing wreck from a 19th century PoV anyway).

Nivek, this idea goes along with the feasible parts of your proposal, without the thrice-ASB part of detaching Pomerania and Silesia and adding them to Poland, which no sane German would consent to.

Mi Idea comes from this map:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ion.svg/710px-Map-GermanConfederation.svg.png

the red line is obviously the frontier who the Pan-Germanist Want... and that Exclude both Royal Prussia and East Prussia... for that i have that crazy idea( a proto 'modern' poland combined with the Prussia part as a dual semi-feudal State... the east nobility was more reactonary than the people think) beside his crown with being co-ruler in Germany(that was the Idea of Jared and work fine.. thanks to the counterweight of the Netherlands) but again you make the good prize for the Hohenzoller(Poland to the Sigmarine.. but they will want the Full Baltic in Personal Union.. later to germanize)

That was from far teh best idea so long... i think FWIV can Accept that(but the pride hit to be a vassal of the habsburg will hate it.. for that the co-rule in the German Empire)

Att
Nivek von Beldo

 

[Eurofed]

THE PRUSSIANS... GOD THE PRUSSIANS. THEY HATE THE IDEA OF THE Frankfurt Parliament Since the Start(all their actions was to won time and destroy the liberal and give some consolation prize... and the Prussian Constitution is the lovechild of that) and again the main obstacle ever.

See my proposal for the throne of Poland/Galicia (and promsies of support for the UBD) as a consolation prize.

b. The North-South Problems is a big Issue(unlike Italian mary-sue utopia Eurofed's like thinking) but solve with the POD and some internal change(again the South is ultra agrarian without resource.. before the massification of Tourism and Terciary Sector).

Well, a federal constitution may easily allow Naples to keep some of its budding industry, instead of losing it entirely to the North like OTL. Anyway the PoD is going to jump-start Italian OTL 20th century industrialization, with the corresponding internal immigration from south to north. If worse comes to worse, in a few decades this is going to make the South still a backward, crime-ridden area like OTL 2010, but not the social hellhole it was in OTL 19th century.

c. the magyar are ultra-reactionaries(and that is the only powerbase in the kingdom) but again can be solved internally(external meddling can make bad blood)

Hopefully.

D. Posen in the Kingdom of Poland IS ASB WITH THE POD... YOU NEED TO DESTROY THE PRUSSIAN FOR THAT...

Well, Hohenzollern Poland may easily make that more palatable for the Prussians, but again, the idea is to go along with the partition of the province that was proposed in 1848 by the Frankfurt Parliament, which left Prussia/Germany with most of the land and the choicest bits. Honestly I dunno what Prussia's reaction to the proposal was.

1. The Slavs are trouble-makers(ask the Austrians, Ottomans and etc in OTL) and they always are seeing as the vassals of the Tsar... unless you make an inversion(like the Kaiser of all The Slavs or some similar) the German will accepted the Slavs as a minority but not support some plan who can make problems in their allies(Hungary) or another nations(Ottomans,etc).

This is a very wide-ranging topic. Difficult to make blanket statements.

2. Support Eurofed idea but very unlikely... The Checzs as a 'peasant dialect' don't have a revival until after the fail 1848 and the defeat of Austria after the Seven Week War

True, Greater German unification in 1848 may stop the Czech national revival in its tracks and lead to assimilation of the Czechs, like the Slovenes.

3 Who Which Sea Acess?)(an crazy idea... Merge Prussia east of the Oder with Poland as an Prusso-Poland Kingdom as a reward to the Hohenzollern.. in that way can solve the problem)

ASB, ASB, and thrice ASB. But see my idea for an Hohenzollern Galicia/Poland.

5. Alert of Cliche.. by Cliche being Subvertedeek:)... I'm Not Pasha.. but again.. the Ottomans unless severe crushed by the russian... is very unlikely to collapse(even the Prussia can find a safe-heaven in the more conservative and pro-prussian ottomans.. ask Moltke the Elder) being ASB without Good Explained(you have as rival russia... the ottomans is the natural enemy russia... so is my ally...that is Historical Laws.. see the WW1).

Actually TTL has a reasonable chance of being an Ottoman reasonable success story, even if they are not likely to hold everything they had in 1848.

7. Pan-Scandivanism was at rise in that Era... and with having a more powerful Germany in the south... the King of Denmark can swallow his pride and ask for friendship to Gustav of Sweden

8. Like Eurofed say.. but again... the SSM suffer sabotage from the Imperial Power(who a weak and tributary China than an stroger one) but again.. throw an dice...

Yep.

P.S Why always the Italian wankage(several discussion with italians let me tu undertand why...)

Turning the question on its head, why do you dislike Italy success TLs so much ? Dislike for Ameriwanks I can understand.

 

[Eurofed]

Mi Idea comes from this map:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ion.svg/710px-Map-GermanConfederation.svg.png

the red line is obviously the frontier who the Pan-Germanist Want... and that Exclude both Royal Prussia and East Prussia... for that i have that crazy idea( a proto 'modern' poland combined with the Prussia part as a dual semi-feudal State... the east nobility was more reactonary than the people think) beside his crown with being co-ruler in Germany(that was the Idea of Jared and work fine.. thanks to the counterweight of the Netherlands) but again you make the good prize for the Hohenzoller(Poland to the Sigmarine.. but they will want the Full Baltic in Personal Union.. later to germanize)

Ahh, now I understand better your proposal, you meant the parts of of the Kingdom of Prussia that were outside the German Confederation's borders (sorry, I had misunderstood the Oder-Neisse line). Theoretically feasible from an Hohenzollern PoV, but I think that German nationalists would cry murder about West and East Prussia. Detaching Posen and uniting it with Hohenzollern Galicia might be theoretically feasible, but again I think partition of Posen would be the most likely solution.

The Habsburg shall have no problems with secretly guaranteeing a personal union for the UBD to the Hohenzollern. It's just that they can't (yet) go public with it. Russia is going to be pissed enough with the Kingdom of Galicia, with an Hohenzollern (or an Habsburg for that matter) on the throne is an obvious irredentist claim on Congress Poland with 4-A backing. The new states would best need at least half a decade of nation-building before they tackle the war with Russia (and France).

 

[Van555]

I'm impressed you guys followed along...

right now I'm calculating a response but i Shall be done by the end of night.

 

[Van555]

alright here Are some of my judgement calls in regards:

1.I think the best Pod is an epiphany of some sort for the Hapsburg Revelation That Nationalism is A tool for success as he might say to the reactionary members of Austrian military Might say " we are breaking the realm into pieces so they can create a greater whole... a European whole beyond the intractable fighting we have witnessed.

On the issue of South America And Central America Nivek has a strong point, it easiest to create a different America BY Producing a different tone.

OK, what I'm saying is that maybe America through Isolationism and or less Imperialism create a Strong american community. OK, less politician talk means a stronger Latin American with less coups and no more than Otl expansion plus Santa Domingo most likely. no more dominating the American Union than Germany does our EU. MORE COMING

 

[Van555]

2. In regards to Europe the Emperor's decision nearly causes a second round of Napoleonic wars in scale the first Holstein war nearly results in general war only stopped by Britain. Denmark losses Holstein and swallows a bitter pill and get pushed into a Scandinavian sphere the new nations feel very surrounded forgetting older feuds as well their enemies don't see those feuds. They see a reemergence of Hapsburg power unseen in centuries any internal wars mean an intervention and restructuring in favor of France and Russia I think so compromises are had.

also I wonder how the Crimean war should go.

Hungary does begin to break down due to pig headed attitudes in the 1860's which breaks out i think 1867 or so

However this means nations need allies even the "proto-eu" so they have to pick some "poor" choices namely the Ottomans who get a whole bunch of cool stuff and infrastructure meaning no Young Turks and British backing... for now

anyway for the Czech situation they become A rather culturally autonomous province but still slowly move to a federal situation called " the bohemian process"( I guess) that other minority regions will embrace.

The polish situation is interesting one of the "fatal flaws in the foundation" that the infamous general boulanger will later cite in his grand elan plan to the emperor before he mad the faithful decision.

Our hero Kaiser Ferdinand( with a more liberal Franz Joseph and the Frankfurt crew behind him play the Junkers against the people like they later due in Italy and Hungary to get them to agree to Franz josepth getting the "crown in the gutter" with Key Concessions. however in the end Prussia is a bit too independent and refuses to partition posen as previously promised but does stop the germanization policy as a consolation to the galcian comenwealth.

Knowing it's going to come up soon a too preserve a front of stability an alternative is proposed that is accepted but rather unlikely it seems give Poland a coastline or even a port and the issue is dropped. where to get that port... only Prussia can provide it unless we turn east thoughts

this kinda a pull so im not sure if it'll work but wierder things have happend

Also in general Italy will be significantly less corrupt than our timeline and generally more prosperous, larger too

Sicily will at wost be the equivalent of normal southern Italy our timeline

Thoughts anyone and don't worry the timeline won't look this bad

 

[Eurofed]

2. In regards to Europe the Emperor's decision nearly causes a second round of Napoleonic wars in scale the first Holstein war nearly results in general war only stopped by Britain. Denmark losses Holstein and swallows a bitter pill and get pushed into a Scandinavian sphere the new nations feel very surrounded forgetting older feuds as well their enemies don't see those feuds.

This seems a feasible solution to the Schleswig-Holstein crisis, and a way to push Denmark and Norway-Sweden towards confederal unification.

also I wonder how the Crimean war should go.

In all likelihood an alliance of convenience between France and Russia with Britain neutral.

Hungary does begin to break down due to pig headed attitudes in the 1860's which breaks out i think 1867 or so

Perhaps an Hungarian-Croat Ausgleich ?

However this means nations need allies even the "proto-eu" so they have to pick some "poor" choices namely the Ottomans who get a whole bunch of cool stuff and infrastructure meaning no Young Turks and British backing... for now

Quite reasonable (although they shall have to give up rights on Tunisia and Libya).

anyway for the Czech situation they become A rather culturally autonomous province but still slowly move to a federal situation called " the bohemian process"( I guess) that other minority regions will embrace.

Feasible.

The polish situation is interesting one of the "fatal flaws in the foundation" that the infamous general boulanger will later cite in his grand elan plan to the emperor before he mad the faithful decision.

Oh, le Hubris.

Our hero Kaiser Ferdinand( with a more liberal Franz Joseph and the Frankfurt crew behind him play the Junkers against the people like they later due in Italy and Hungary to get them to agree to Franz josepth getting the "crown in the gutter" with Key Concessions. however in the end Prussia is a bit too independent and refuses to partition posen as previously promised but does stop the germanization policy as a consolation to the galcian comenwealth.

As long as the Poles have reasonable hopes that the Habsburg alliance shall support independence of Congress Poland from Russia, it is a liveable compromise.

Knowing it's going to come up soon a too preserve a front of stability an alternative is proposed that is accepted but rather unlikely it seems give Poland a coastline or even a port and the issue is dropped. where to get that port... only Prussia can provide it unless we turn east thoughts

Restoring the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth under Hohenzollern Galicia and getting a sea access through Lithuania ?

Notice that plausible casus belli with Russia are piling up fast. In order to settle some of its potential internal conflicts, the Habsburg bloc is writing several expansionist checks that sooner rather than later need to be settled by a war with Russia.

Also in general Italy will be significantly less corrupt than our timeline and generally more prosperous, larger too

Sicily will at wost be the equivalent of normal southern Italy our timeline

 

[Keb]

Our hero Kaiser Ferdinand( with a more liberal Franz Joseph and the Frankfurt crew behind him play the Junkers against the people like they later due in Italy and Hungary to get them to agree to Franz josepth getting the "crown in the gutter" with Key Concessions.

One moment, Ferdinand? Ferdinand I of Austria?

The man is a bad choice to say the least. He had ... problems. Epilepsy for one and a pretty bad case of it, too (with, often, a dozen or more seizures per day). Contemporary sources classify him as feeble-minded, but that's hard to quantify, given the use of feeble-minded as something of a catch-all term at the time. He was said to be not-too-bright, though.

The issue here would be his regency council, though Ferdinand was never actually proclaimed incapable of ruling, the triumvirate that essentially held the power in his stead (Metternich, Kolowrat and Archduke Louis) were arch-reactionaries. The revolutions eventually deposed them (and Ferdinand himself), but by then the momentum may be lost.

Considering Franz Joseph did turn 18 that year, might it not be a better idea for him to ascend to the throne before the revolutions begin? Without the reactionary trio in charge, Franz's advisors might steer the course differently ... and Franz himself is young, he could get swept up by the liberal tide.

 

[Eurofed]

One moment, Ferdinand? Ferdinand I of Austria?

The man is a bad choice to say the least. He had ... problems. Epilepsy for one and a pretty bad case of it, too (with, often, a dozen or more seizures per day). Contemporary sources classify him as feeble-minded, but that's hard to quantify, given the use of feeble-minded as something of a catch-all term at the time. He was said to be not-too-bright, though.

The issue here would be his regency council, though Ferdinand was never actually proclaimed incapable of ruling, the triumvirate that essentially held the power in his stead (Metternich, Kolowrat and Archduke Louis) were arch-reactionaries. The revolutions eventually deposed them (and Ferdinand himself), but by then the momentum may be lost.

Considering Franz Joseph did turn 18 that year, might it not be a better idea for him to ascend to the throne before the revolutions begin? Without the reactionary trio in charge, Franz's advisors might steer the course differently ... and Franz himself is young, he could get swept up by the liberal tide.

Well, I would defer on Imperial Vienna's expertise on this, but the PoD requires that key members of the Habsburg ruling elite opportunistically support the liberal-national revolutions in 1848. We have so far assumed that it needs to include Archduchess Sophia, and she influenced his son Franz Joseph very much, so we can assume that where goes the mother, so goes the son. In order for the events of 1848 in Germany, Italy, and the Habsburg lands themselves to be swayed to the dynasty's favor, we need it to take this stance very soon, in Spring 1848.

Therefore, we may assume that ITTL the abdication of Ferdinand occurs soon after the revolution in Vienna. Franz Joseph, with Sophia as the power behind the throne, takes over, dismisses the arch-reactionary trio, announces his willingness to grant a constitution and his support for the national aspirations of the Germans, the Italians, and the Hungarians, and implements the daring partition plan with his brothers.

 

[Van555]

Yeah, that actually what I want to get across that though the Hapsburg alliance is strong it is based on irredentianism and national will for better or worse