Hi all, sorry if this isn't the right place for something like this
I'm currently trying to hammer out some details on my first 'real' timeline (as opposed to just a general setting) and would welcome any feedback on ways to make it more plausible, feasible, or just plain less ASB, which I fear it is at the minute.
The TL is called "The Shadows These Days Cast" (originally "The Shadow These Days Cast", I changed it for euphony, although "The Shadow..." also refers to a previous version with less Britwank, no Japanese Empire and a nominally independent Germany), which is derived from the speech Churchill gives ITTL instead of "We Shall Fight On The Beaches".
The original premise was "Britain gets the atomic bomb first", which I quickly realised was not a feasible P.O.D. at all. I did however learn that Britain had begun its own nuclear programme, but agreed to turn all its scientists and theoretical work over to the Manhattan Project as the latter was thought to have had a better chance of developing a practical application for the work. So my initial avenue of enquiry was "what can I change to make the opposite happen?" My blunderings have led me to posit a P.O.D. in the 1920s (an electrical impulse in Margaret Sanger's brain?), with America more fully embracing the eugenics/racial hygiene movement, with a more comprehensive Immigration Act of 1924 (Johnson and Reed don't need the support of Gompers to push the Act through so it restricts Jewish immigration and puts "swarthy Southern Europeans" in the same category as Asian Indians) and an earlier and more conclusive Buck v. Bell. that rules out a future Skinner v. Oklahoma.
My hope is that this would have several effects:
1.) America is weaker overall, fighting off race riots and industrial sabotage by Italian fifth-columnists throughout the war.
2.) In the 1930s Britain fears that growing ideological parallels between America and Germany will see the former supporting Germany's side in any future continental dispute. A top-secret espionage programme is funded against both Germany and the USA (note: is it even remotely plausible that the British Government would consider spying on an Allied power?).
3.) America is no longer a friendly place for Italian and Jewish migrants. Scientists including Enrico Fermi and Leó Szilárd emigrate to or remain in Britain and Chamberlain authorises a British atomic programme named Project Pendragon (seriously, I need a better name than this) in 1939. This is augmented by American research after the attack on Hawaii (see below).
4.) After a bill proposing the sterilisation of Asian-Americans is narrowly defeated inthe Californian Senate (how ASB is this? I need a big wake-up call that will utterly inflame Japanese public opinion in the Home Islands), Japan sees America as a future aggressor, not just a possible barrier to Japanese expansion. A "Hawaii Operation" is authorised as in OTL, but includes plans for a third strike that keeps America out of the Western Pacific for twelve months (too long?).
5.) America refuses to declare war on Germany and is subsequently discovered to have considered seeking a deal with Hitler that would see him sever all links with the Japanese in exchange for the cessation of Lend-Lease to Britain (this sounds like a suspiciously poor deal - how much aid did Germany actually give Japan?). These so-called Washington Telegrams are intercepted by British intelligence and find their way onto Churchill's desk.
How would this affect the war in Europe? Would Hitler (if he even comes to power at all) even feel the need to attack Western European countries if he thought there was a chance of America backing him up? My notes atm have him invading France as per OTL, but due to British intelligence a rump French Republic survives/there's a much larger resistance movement to keep Germany busy, taking pressure off the British Isles.
He then attacks the Soviet Union (thus far more or less unaffected by the butterflies?) and is stalemated well west of Stalingrad (why?). In 1943 Britain tests the first atomic bomb in the Flannan Isles (is this even remotely plausible? in my notes I have the British scientists wildly underestimating the radius of the fireball, but is it just better to have them use Canada?) and then uses it against Hamburg and Berlin.
I must admit I've been unable to track down details of just how deep a bunker has to be before a ~20 kT weapon ceases to be effective (or indeed how deep the Berlin bunker system was), but I've generally assumed that with no lead shielding the Third Reich is decapitated, leaving the Soviet Union to pick up the pieces. They spend the next ten years rooting out the last rogue generals, leading to not a little resentment towards the British.
Italy surrenders unconditionally to the British. A British-French expeditionary force clears out France and the Benelux countries with little effort - they'll later learn that on receiving the news of the atomic destruction of Berlin hundreds of thousands of Germans have gone uncurably insane or committed suicide (hopefully not too ASB - the Japanese didn't have such a massive national meltdown, but then they hadn't lost their second World War after being told they were the master race). They have just enough manpower to secure the Rhineland (?) and are forced to leave the rest to Stalin - the shattered Germany is eventually integrated into the Soviet Union as an ASSR. When the French report (possibly imaginary) Soviet troops crossing the Rhine Churchill is forced to threaten the Soviets with atomic attack if they advance any further.
The U.S.A. appeals to Britain to use atomic weaponry against Japan. Britain refuses, and Churchill reads the Washington Telegrams on the BBC. He subsequently signs a peace deal with Hirohito that leaves Burma and other imperial possessions in the hands of the Japanese (this seems incredibly ASB - abandoning historic parts of the Empire just to spite America? of course, it's unlikely Britain will have the manpower to prosecute the Pacific war further) with the assurance that any further advances will be met by atomic attacks on all major Japanese cities. Japan agrees. The U.S.A., facing borderline revolution at home, a loss of face in Europe and a brutal naval meatgrinder in the Pacific, retreats and eventually signs a perpetual ceasefire (possibly even more ASB - I later learned they could have won the war with a naval blockade, although admittedly in this TL America will have to rebuild its fleet with a severely restricted industrial base).
The result is nearly ten years of Britain as sole atomic power, which... IN REALITY WOULD NOT IN ANY WAY STOP ITS DECLINE UNLESS THEY WERE PREPARED TO NUKE INDIA, but hey. The Soviet Union detonates their Bomb in the early 50s, followed by the U.S.A. and finally Japan (except the U.S.A. did have some research...). Cue four-way Cold War (with France and its remaining colonies, some of which it signs over to Britain in exchange for post-war loans, as British lapdog), which eventually collapses into three-way as the protectionist imperialism of the European and Asian powers combine (and, apparently, Britain conveniently forgets about Burma, Papua New Guinea, Malaysia...). Also according to this map all the other European powers just roll over and play dead. So, yes, in need of work. Any (more) thoughts?
