Some times the breaks just go your way.
It would hard for the battle to go much better for the USA with any commander, so we can largely ignore this possibility. Perhaps butterflies means the Japanese don't damage any carrier or the submarine does not find it heading home. This is by far the least likely outcome.
The decision made by USA commanders were sound, and perhaps Halsey makes the same ones. Or he makes different once with similar outcomes. Second least likely.
Now to the probable. Halsey was as aggressive as any commander we had, so he likely makes more aggressive decisions. He will not lose surprise before the Japanese attack Midway, at least until they send planes that way. But he may do some of the following.
1) There was a false report of sightings before the real sighting. He may well move towards this report. Or he may just have his ships a few 10's of miles away from OTL for any number of smaller reasons such as when he launches planes. The butterfly from this is the Japanese likely spot the USA fleet hours earlier. So likely we don't hit the carriers with planes refueling and the Japanese launch a half attack much earlier in the day. Even their very weak one carrier attack later in the day did significant damage to the USA.
2) Other poster point of on full strike is valid. Again, luck does not go USA way.
3) Again, if Halsey wins carrier battle, he likely pursues west risking surface battle at night.
So what is likely result. Japan had terrible damage control. If we get the full strike finding the carriers, then the Japanese likely lose 1-2 carriers. The USA will lose whichever carriers the Japanese find. Japan will the send on Midway planes on second half strike. It is very variable on planes finding carriers and how much damage a single hit does. But if I had to bet, I would go with 2 Japanese and 3 American carriers lost. Island defense holds, and after initial failure, Japan retreats since the main objective is done. Marines are played up as heroes and it is months later before public learns about carrier losses. Small side chance Torch is delayed due to naval assets sent to Pacific. Japan finishes bases in Solomon Islands. War picks up again in early 1943 with CP push.
I am not saying Halsey was bad, this is just butterfly working of a perfect day IOTL. If you just rolled 99 on the percentile dice, you never take a reroll to see if you can get 00. It is sort of the reverse of Hitler in command in 1942 where almost any random general does better that year.
I'll begin by pointing out that the movie, as usual with Hollywood shit, plays fast and loose with the facts. Mitchum as Halsey is seen in the hospital recommending Spruance as his replacement to Nimitz leaving the viewer with the understandable, but wholly false, idea that Spruance was in command at Midway from the start. The movie then further reinforces that false idea by giving Glenn Ford as Spruance more screen time than Robert Webber as Frank Jack Fletcher.
The movie has it right. In the hospital, it does show Halsey recommending Spruance for command of his carriers. But later when Nimitz talks to him to give him the command (seems like scene walking on carrier talking about spark plugs), the movie has Nimitz say that Fletcher will be in overall command once they link up.
The movie does chose to glorify Spruance more by giving him Heston (fictional character) as his Air commander along with the subplot about the internment camps. It is the way Heston is used to tie the various scenes together that makes Spruance seems more important.