Halifax Doesn't Deal

1940: Hitler is triumphant on the Continent. British forces have been evacuated from Dunkirk, but everyone fears invasion.

Tentatively, Prime Minister Halifax puts out peace feelers. However, Germany is unwilling to make a peace that Britain finds reasonable (I.E. withdrawing from Northern France and Belgium).

Moreover, nobody's really inclined to trust Hitler in any case.

With Churchill conveniently dead because of a <taxi accident in New York/liver cancer/some other awful thing>, how does PM Halifax lead Britain differently?
 
1940: Hitler is triumphant on the Continent. British forces have been evacuated from Dunkirk, but everyone fears invasion.

Tentatively, Prime Minister Halifax puts out peace feelers. However, Germany is unwilling to make a peace that Britain finds reasonable (I.E. withdrawing from Northern France and Belgium).

Moreover, nobody's really inclined to trust Hitler in any case.

With Churchill conveniently dead because of a <taxi accident in New York/liver cancer/some other awful thing>, how does PM Halifax lead Britain differently?

Interesting point you make. Thanks. The first thing that comes to mind is, more cautiously. The second is, less successfully when it comes to recruiting the US help.
 
Interesting point you make. Thanks. The first thing that comes to mind is, more cautiously. The second is, less successfully when it comes to recruiting the US help.

Why less successfully in hthe case of the latter?

I think you could argue that Roosevelt would like Halifax more in some ways; Halifax, for instance, seems to be more moderate wrt/ India's independence movement than Churchill.
 
Why less successfully in hthe case of the latter?

I think you could argue that Roosevelt would like Halifax more in some ways; Halifax, for instance, seems to be more moderate wrt/ India's independence movement than Churchill.

Churchill knew the target better. He could talk not only to Roosevelt but to the Americans too in a language that would have appeal for them.

The USA would probably have an easier going with Halifax in the final years of the war, when colonies, the Free French, the policies in the Med and in Eastern Europe etc. became more urgent issues, yes. But I was talking about coaxing US help in 1940-41.
 
First, remember that Halifax was Churchill's man in Washington during the war. He got along with Roosevelt very well.

Halifax, while part of Chamberlain's camp during the initial build-up to war, saw the writing on the wall a bit before most of the appeasers did and began working for rearmament earlier as a result. He oversaw a lot of the upgrades to the AA defenses around London, for example, and was pushing for the draft early.

Halifax would have been far more inclined to support a coup within Germany, especially if he thought it had any chance of success. He would have also been far less inclined to work with the Soviets than Churchill even was.

The Battle of Britain is going to still happen, and probably in much the same way. Increasing amounts of Americans are going to want to get involved, and December 7th is still likely to happen.

Interestingly, you might see a change in how the independence of India goes after the war-Halifax knew the players involved and was very interested in the issue.
 
It depends on how much you think rhetoric matters.
Halifax isn't going to be as adept at speaking.
Well I guess you never know untill your called upon to do it but it seems unlikely.

But given most policy choices are going to come from others who would presumerably be in much the similar positions as OTL much the same should occur.
 
Halifax does a deal

The Cabinet may have stuck out for better terms, Chamberlain felt betrayed by Hitler and the Labour Party may have wanted to fight on. However he probably would have made a deal, rather more favourable than that made with tjhe Vichy regime in France. We probably wouldn't have had a unofficial war with Vichy France and De Gualle would have got nowhere. Britain would have a free hand in the Empire apart from possibly handing over soken token ex-German colonies. Hitler would have a free hand uin Europe and Britaion would be left alone. Labour may have gone into opposition but wartime censorship would remain with censorship or criticism of the agreement. There may have been economic migrants working in GHermany, a lot went from the non occupied parts of France. Initially forced labour wasn't used outside occupied countries

Would Mussolini have come in for the spoils as he did when he though Britain was defeated.

Nazi Germany grows into a super power threatening the United Stetes. Japan would be less likely to come in, they were beaten by the RusSians at Nomahan and Britain would have been free the send modern battleships and aircraft carriers out East and possibly even modern aircraft. Britain would face a long term war trying to hang onto India.
 
If Britain stays at war but with Churchill not Prime Minister two things follow.

1) Issues around India are much more open than in OTL.

2) Churchill's abence will have a big effect on post war politics. I am certain that Churchill mitigated the tory defeat in 1945. Without it the Conservatives would have done even worse.
 
Personally I suspect that if the terms were unreasonable, ahd they probably would be, Halifax might step down as PM. He would have real issues governing from the Lord's in the long-term and there would be a lot of pressure for a fresher face not connected with appeasement.
 
Halifax

On the assumption (in the scenario) that Churchill was killed in New York in 1931, Halifax becomes Prime Minister on May 10th 1940.

As others have said, it's probable Halifax would have enjoyed a better realtionship with Stalin and a less good one with Churchill but I suspect he would have come to recognise the true extent of Soviet political ambitions by 1945.

On the assumption that other WW2 events happen as they did in OTL, Halifax leads a different National Government (Attlee, Sinclair and Bevin but possibly no Beaverbrook). Another key difference is Butler as Foreign Secretary (he had served with Halifax at the Foreign Office). I can't see what difference any of this would have made to the 1945 election. I disagree slightly with Derek on this - I think the Conservatives were victims of social and political forces they could neither control nor understand.

I also think Halifax would have been less the ardent Atlanticist and more in favour of a stronger "European" element so the recovery of France and the restoration of democracy to Germany would have been important.

Would Halifax have remained Tory leader after the 1945 landslide ? I suspect not - in OTL he never really recovered from the loss of his eldest son in 1942 and I also think he lacked the internal fortitude of Churchill.

Butler becomes Conservative leader in 1946 and Prime Minister in 1951 and leads a long period of liberal Tory Government through the 1950s. In 1964, after thirteen years in office, Butler loses the General Election to Wilson's Labour party. Labour returns with a majority of 30.

Reginald Maudling becomes the new Conservative leader in 1965 but Wilson wins a landslide in 1966 and a much narrower victory in 1970 after which Maudling stands down and is replaced by Edward Heath who leads the Conservatives back to Government after Labour's failure to deal with industrial unrest and the aftermath of the Yom Kippur War.

Heath struggles in vain with the massive economic problems faced by Britain in the 1970s and after a second oil price shock in 1978, he is forced from Government during the "Winter of Discontent" in 1978-79.

Denis Healey is the new Prime Minister and instigates radical economic reform cutting public spending and taxes. Labour is re-elected in 1983 and 1987 by which time Healey has retired and Roy Hattersley is Prime Minister.

Hattersley grossly mishandles Britain's entry into the Exchange Rate Mechanism and the subsequent economic collapse in 1990 paves the way for a Conservative victory in 1991 under Douglas Hurd. The Hurd Government will serve two terms before it is ousted by a Liberal-Labour Coalition led by Tony Blair in 1999.

After the Coalition falls apart over the Iraq War in 2005, the Liberals switch to supporting the Conservatives under Ken Clarke who then becomes Prime Minister.
 
But we know pretty well exactly what the main terms were going to be, as another poster has listed them above.

1. Recognition of Germany's domination of continental Europe.
2. Handing back a few places like South West Africa and Tanganyika.

I think that the UK would have had to adopt the Nurenberg Laws in the long term and incorporate its economy into that of the Reich, and I suspect also that democracy as a political concept would be finished in Britain.

Apart from those, however, at least if we can believe all the reported private conversations Hitler had with his entourage, together with his speeches and Mein Kampf, the New Order would be built on the two pillars of a Germany supreme in Eurasia and a British Empire supreme at sea and in South Asia and Africa.

Hitler always wanted a close relationship with the Brits and rather despised the Italians.

A racists wet dream, and God help humanity.
 
I don't see a Halifax-led government agreeing to those terms. I really don't. Honestly, with the situation as it was, in all likelihood the war itself is going to conduct itself much as it does historically-America will inevitably get involved, and it's going pear-shaped from there. British security depends on no single dominant power on the continent, and Halifax is of the old school. He's not going to accept German dominance of the continent.
 

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But we know pretty well exactly what the main terms were going to be, as another poster has listed them above.

1. Recognition of Germany's domination of continental Europe.
2. Handing back a few places like South West Africa and Tanganyika.

I think that the UK would have had to adopt the Nurenberg Laws in the long term and incorporate its economy into that of the Reich, and I suspect also that democracy as a political concept would be finished in Britain.

Apart from those, however, at least if we can believe all the reported private conversations Hitler had with his entourage, together with his speeches and Mein Kampf, the New Order would be built on the two pillars of a Germany supreme in Eurasia and a British Empire supreme at sea and in South Asia and Africa.

Hitler always wanted a close relationship with the Brits and rather despised the Italians.

A racists wet dream, and God help humanity.


The acceptance of the Nuremberg Laws and being folded into the Reich economy would only happen in an outright surrender. That is vanishingly unlikely.
 
A racists wet dream, and God help humanity.

Yes, and nothing that Halifax would swallow. While the racism, end of democracy, and end of an independent economy might come in the long run if someone stupid enough would accept the peace terms Hitler would have offered, those other terms are up front in plain sight, and Halifax was not a stupid. He'd see they'd mean the end of British secure independence, not to mention of its position in Europe. He'd reject them, and go on with the war.
 
1940: Hitler is triumphant on the Continent. British forces have been evacuated from Dunkirk, but everyone fears invasion.

Tentatively, Prime Minister Halifax puts out peace feelers. However, Germany is unwilling to make a peace that Britain finds reasonable (I.E. withdrawing from Northern France and Belgium).

Moreover, nobody's really inclined to trust Hitler in any case.

With Churchill conveniently dead because of a <taxi accident in New York/liver cancer/some other awful thing>, how does PM Halifax lead Britain differently?

You could have him shot down, though that might take out any of Attlee, Eden, Simon and Samuel as well (I think at one point they all flew with him). He was often in the air, and sometimes very dangerously so, during the final week of the Battle of France

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
It depends on how much you think rhetoric matters.
Halifax isn't going to be as adept at speaking.
Well I guess you never know untill your called upon to do it but it seems unlikely.

But given most policy choices are going to come from others who would presumerably be in much the similar positions as OTL much the same should occur.

Well, 1941 could be the turning point, with Hess flying in. Of course, changes of events etc may have altered that too, but if we assume it was a mix of Hess's hopes and British Intelligence hard work, then if Britain still holds out under Halifax then a mission to try to work with a 'peace party' seems likely. The question is whether Halifax would be more open to pressure than would Churchill ?

With Hitler's representative coming to visit them (albeit in secret etc) it has the makings of a propaganda coup for the British if they DO decide to deal, because the Germans have made all the running and they can play that up

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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