Part 41: The theories of a Georgian (Finale)
The study of nations and civilizations is an odd field. Many men have come up with many theories and hypotheses about the path of nations. Marx, Hegel, Spengler, Ibn Khaldun, the list rolls and rolls on of men who try to understand the direction of history itself. By no means is it a purely academic pursuit either – simply ask anyone on the street how they feel about things and you'll find that many people consider these things.
Even an odd Georgian man in his Dacha did a little theorizing one night. His theory was one of light and dark, stability and instability. He believed there was an inevitable march to history in a particular direction. He predicted the future of the world with an ugly little glint in his eyes,“But it will be dark soon. And the dawn waits.” is what he said all those years ago. His belief in this dawn was that there was a final dawn awaiting humanity that made all the evils he did justified. It was appropriately Hegelian, or perhaps Marxian if your prefer.
But has it really went in that direction? Perhaps not how he meant. Europe had swung hard against Stalin and the empire that he built. From the Spirit of '94 and the Revolutions of New October Europe had, for the most part, liberated themselves. There were no foreign armies marching, no secret paymaster schemes. The revolutions and uprisings in Europe were entirely domestic and grassroots affairs.
The vast majority of Europe was free. The only state which had not fallen to civil war or transitioned into Democracy was the GDR. Even the Soviet Union herself had collapsed and gone away, leaving little more than Russia, Belarus, and Central Asia as hanger-ons for the new state led by Lebed. Ukraine, the Baltic states, the Caucuses, they were all gone from Russia's grasp. Even Stalin's ancestral home of Georgia was living free albeit having to deal with the numerous issues of warring, banditry, terrorism, and economic stagnation that the region inherited from the Soviets even after leaving.
The former Soviet states of the Caucuses, circa 1998
The GDR herself was falling apart just like the rest of the remaining Marxism-Leninist states were. Outside of GDR the only self-proclaimed Marxist-Leninist states left alive as of 2000 were the Indochinese states and Cuba. None of these groups looked like they had long to live, considering their economies were stalling and collapsing under the weight of economic mismanagement and opposition from the people themselves.
Even the supposedly dangerous Socialist giant under Wang collapsed into disrepair and faded away. Much to the surprise of everyone, the military even kept their promise of elections. After several hundred million dead or so because of Mao and Wang it was perhaps only understandable that the military would go ahead and allow China to try the democracy thing that they heard so much about.
Chinese Presidential elections of 1996, Round 1:
Wei Jingsheng (Independent), 36.3%
Lucie Cheng (Social Democratic Party of China), 23.7%
Xu Wenli (National Democratic Party), 21.1%
Bai Zhijian (Chinese Reformed Communist Party), 8.4%
Ren Wanding (Chinese Liberal Party), 6.1%
Others, 4.4%
Chinese Presidential Elections of 1996, Round 2:
Wei Jingsheng (Independent), 69.1%
Lucie Cheng (Social Democratic Party of China), 30.1%
Others/Blank Ballots, 0.8%
Wei and the reformers had won against the solid leftists, although their narrow victory pointed to the worrying fact that China was not fully behind this new economic system. Regardless the reformers planned to push forward and forge a capitalist democracy in a time when the global economy wasn't looking too hot. It would take a great deal of effort to create a culture of democracy and transition the economy but it wasn't something that the government could afford to put off. After all, the government might be free of military influence for now but if things go bad, who says the Warlord period is anything that China can't repeat?
Wei Jingsheng, China's first freely elected leader
Russia and the rest of the post-Communist states had many of those similar issues. They had to transition to a market economy and help foster a democratic environment. For Russia Lebed might not really have to abide by democracy, he had other things to contend with. This issue was instability which only begat more and more violence and then more and more instability. The former Marxist-Leninist states of Africa had this too. They had shifted away from Marxism-Leninism not from the people's demands but because it was no longer worthwhile to stay involved with Russia's sinking empire. Now they could transition to the market however they liked, just without Soviet subsidies and without Soviet backing. More than a few African nations, formerly Communist or not, fell into chaos following the end of the Cold War. In some parts of Africa, things looked bright of course. South Africa had her elections and they went well, Nelson Mandela won his election as mentioned previously and his government continued without much in the way of problems. Things were peaceful at least in South Africa.
So in the end, it appeared that Capitalism had won. It won the struggle against Marxism-Leninism. Does this mean that Marxism's criticisms were wrong? Does this mean that there is no future for the left? While one might be inclined to crow on and on about the various liberal capitalist lines of thought, the existence of people like Alexander Lebed and his insistence in engaging in the market economy on his own terms seems to promote the idea that perhaps things are not as solid as they think. Indeed South America herself is seeing the beginnings of something of a strongly leftist character now that the US isn't in the business of overthrowing democracies down south. Perhaps that's why the mutterings of a “Post-Cold War Consensus” are never much more than mutterings.
Anyone who followed politics knew that it wasn't the “end of history” no doubt much to the chagrin to Hegel or Fukuyama. There is no end of history in the physical sense, but 2000 saw no end to history in the philosophical sense either. There is more to be told. Much more blood and sweat must be shed on the earth's fertile clay before the story of the world – or even America would be over.
And at the same time, what of Spengler? What of the Western World's supposed Untergang, her downfall? Only the future could tell us if Spengler would be proven right. Spengler believed that the West would slowly lose its vigor and after 2000 the most popular form of government would be a sort of ad hoc Caesarism with governments ruling by executive fiat. Does that seem like the future from this point? Maybe not, but much can change in a few years. After all no one expected President Leland in 1988.
The future still has much in store, does it not?
It was these very important questions that the man thought about as he waited in the dacha. In a spartan room the man and a young confidant sat in chairs at a table, both their eyes transfixed upon a television blaring out news from America. The Americans recently finished up their elections and today the man they elected was being sworn in. It was, as the man had come to understand, an important election in American history.
"Any man who loves Communism has no brains; Any man who loves Capitalism has no heart." - Alexander Lebed, 2005
The man took a drag on a cigarette, “I thought they would have gotten rid of him. The Americans are different from what I had expected.”
The young confidant nodded in silent agreement. The two kept silently listening to the TV go on about the election and the signing in of the President. Such a thing had never happened in Russian history.
The man wasn't sure about democracy even if he liked to pretend to be heading in that direction in public.
“If we continue at the pace we're going it will be less than a decade before we have reincorporated the Ukraine and the Caucuses. From there we can begin to disrupt the Americans and what they have and we can move to incorporating other states into our Commonwealth. From there...” The man continued on about his plans for the future. To destroy the America, if you ask him, was as easy as taking what worked for them and then adapting it to your own position. A 'if you can't beat 'em, join 'em' type of plan. Once America was gone then Russia could do as she wished. To do such a thing however was a great challenge that would assuredly take decades. The third Rome would not be built in a day! For now his machinations must lay undetected.
Then the TV flashed a different set of colors, different from the previous images showing DC's palette of greens, navy blues, and whites. A news alert. A local anchor, interrupting the dubbed over broadcast from the US. Both the men perked up in their chairs and stopped smoking.
What the text on the screen said was incredible news. This was most unexpected.
At that moment, a soldier bust through the wooden double doors into the room. “General Lebed!” the soldier's face was red and he was obviously exhausted. “The American President's been-”
“We saw.” said the smoking man in his baritone voice as he stood up. “The television told us. They just say 'shot' what is his status?”
“Dead perhaps...?” the young confidant lurched forward with wide eyes.
The soldier took a few hasty breaths and leaned his hand on the door frame. “Our sources say that he's heading towards the hospital now. They believe that the wounds aren't fatal.” The disappointment of the young confidant was obvious on his face. The older man, Lebed, kept his typical stony expression.
“So not dead. I see. I am starting to understand these Americans more.” Lebed blew out some smoke, “Is the meeting with Doosan still on then?”
The soldier regained his composure and was back in form once more, “They're already waiting in the conference room, sir.”
Lebed took one final drag and put the butt out on the wood table. As he exhaled he looked over to his confidant and shook his head. “You worry too much. We want him alive Maxim, not dead.” Lebed walked out of the room without looking back. He had more important things to do than wonder about the future any longer.
The soldier followed Lebed out of the room and towards the conference room where the South Korean businessmen were waiting. The young confidant was left alone, still taking drags and staring aimlessly out the open doors.
He turned back around and looked at the picture of the American President before the assassination being displayed on the TV. He looked happy just that morning. He went from feeling like the greatest man in America to being carted off to the emergency room in a matter of an hour.
The TV buzzed, “...We have just received news that the American President has arrived at George Washington University Hospital and is receiving emergency care as we speak...”
The young confidant shook his head, “History, she is a harsh mistress!”
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I decided to finish this up early.
So, that's that for Part I. This is my first TL that I technically finished and I think it shows. There's some ideas that I wasn't able to fully articulate and show while there's also important stuff that I really dropped the ball on.
In the redux for Part I and Part II I'll be redoubling my efforts and I'll be adding onto and changing things to make it better. One particular aspect I'll be focusing in on will be abortion which I feel like I pretty much forgot about. I stepped into writing this without a 100% firm understanding of the period so that's something I got wrong. So I'm happy to say that I've planned the redux to weave abortion and the Supreme Court into the story as a major issue for America. That's just the beginning of the things I've planned to fix and readjust. Domestic issues in general are something I'll be focusing more on because I feel like I focuses too much on foreign stuff during the TL.
I think the theme I was going for also got jumbled up somewhere down the line so I'll be working on that as well.
As far as when I'll finish the redux and Part II, I'm not totally sure. There's a lot of stuff to write and I've restricted my side projects to only be worked on during the weekend so that I can finish more important stuff during the week.
Anyway, I hope you guys enjoyed this attempt. It certainly wasn't easy for me to write all of this (nearly 90,000 words) and sometimes I dropped the ball with the TL but I certainly enjoyed writing and posting it up on AH and on SV.