Napoleonrules
Banned
So many possible butterflies. Just a few come to mind.
1. If the Americans pacify Haiti there is no way that they are not getting Santo Domingo at some point. Weakening neighbor sharing a border? As Florida (and to a lesser extent Texas) how that went. I can easily see an invasion like Jackson going into Florida, or a Republic of West Florida analog, happening here. Another, less likely but more fun possibility: in real life the spanish took it back during a reconquista in 1808. With the Spanish and British closing in, the French could have surrendered it...to the Americans. Has potential for all sorts of fun. French are losing it anyway, they can use it to buy favor with the Americans. Will Spain and Great Britain be willing to start a war over 2/3 an island that the Americans could very well legally own (the Louisiana Purchase notoriously did not include borders).
2. Not sure there would be a War of 1812. The Americans could be more focused on internal improvements (in so much as growing and strengthening Haiti) than picking a fight with an albeit distracted giant. They would have much more to lose.
3. If 1812 does happen, I don't see the British spurring a slave revolt. A pacified Haiti is much more valuable to them as a potential territory than a burning American possession is to them. Realistically the Americans wouldn't be able to reinforce the island consistently against the BN so it would make more sense to just try and take the island.
4. A successful taking of Haiti would have to cause the USN and Army to be built up (militia isn't taking and holding the island in all likelihood). Not saying huge buildup, but I would think more than six frigates would have to be built or in the process of being built at this point. Not to mention a much larger (though not huge by any stretch) Army. A war between American and Britain with a much better prepared US is certainly interesting. Not saying outright American victory, but certainly a large war in scope.
5. Possible change in race relations: assume 1812 goes off and Britain invades Haiti. I don't see the Americans offering emancipation in return for fighting, but I do see a major opening here for free coloreds and those of mixed race. Get a Petion or possibly returned Rigaud to offer to help defend against the British (who they would have no loyalty towards) in return for greater rights? Americans might see that as a better outcome than a British Haiti. Certainly would have major butterflies going forward not the least of which a change to the one drop policy.
Here's a question for you: what would the Americans call Haiti? I doubt they will call it Haiti, since that is the name the slaves gave it. Would they revert to Saint Domingue? I can see the Spanish half staying Santo Domingo but Saint Domingue and Santo Domingo would be a bit too confusing. I will say that Cap Francois which turned to Cap Hatien could change to Cape America or possibly Cape Washington. That city did appear to like to change name.
I say possibly Western Hispaniola? Or maybe some old native term? Look at our Western states at how many are named after Indian tribes- even Mormon Utah is named for the Ute tribe.
A question, since you developed this ATL farther than I could have- How about the Spanish-American War of 1898; already occupying Hispaniola would the Americans be as concerned with Cuba? And if the war does still start, would the US care to keep Puerto Rico because Hispaniola is already doing the strategic purpose of a PR, and if no, then what happens to PR? Could having already successfully(?) incorporating Hispaniola lead the US to KEEP Cuba instead of a Platt Amendment? If S-A War still happens and the US keeps both Cuba and Puerto Rico, then buys the Danish West Indies in 1916 (US Virgin Islands) could this lead to French and British (and Dutch) colonies in the Caribbean to want to join the USA in the 1960s-1980s instead of independence? Or maybe the West Indies Federation (1958-1963 OTL) is actually successful as and becomes a dominion as a counterweight to imperialist American influence in the Caribbean?
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