Hail, Britannia

[aaa]

Originally the party was just campaigning for home rule. When that was acheived in 1949 the SNP was quickly reorganised toward Scottish independence. William Wolfe led the party through two independence referendums in 1968 and 1977. But both were defeated, with 1977 being a close affair until Trudeau brought in some of his empire-wide reforms to the confederal governance system and distribution of powers. When they returned to power in 2003 under Alex Salmond they organised another referendum in 2006. Similar to the OTL 2014 referendum this was close, but ultimately won by the No side due to economic arguments (loss of access to British markets tariff free) and the EU saying Scotland would join the back of the queue (in order to not piss off the British imperial government).

Unfortuntely the SNP haven't been able to shake Scottish independence, described ITTL as "their obsession". Unlike IOTL there hasn't been a material change to Scotland's circumstances so appetite for another referendum wasn't strong enough at the 2017 election. To counter any independence thoughts it has been suggested to send a member of the royal family north of the border as the next Lord Lieutenant.

The SNP have been following a logical process from regionalism -> full home rule -> independence. There is a regionalist faction of the party, that espouses a relationship similar to the associated states in the Pacific - recognised independence but tied to the United Empire for defence, foreign affairs and economic matters - but they are a small, but growing minority. The suggestion of most nationalists is Scotland becomes an independent Commonwealth realm at first, and then move to either a republic or a separate monarchy in residence.

Looking ahead, I imagine that if the SNP lose the 2021 election then the regionalists will probably displace the nationalists as the dominant faction within the SNP and independence will be relegated to the backburner and only rear its head every 40 years or so (or if something happens to undermine the Union).

Got it! Is there a similar separatist/independence movement in Ireland? Or any movement dedicated to separating Ulster/NI from the rest of the island? How successful are they?

Edit: to follow this, who are the party leaders in the Lords?

 

[LeinadB93]

Got it! Is there a similar separatist/independence movement in Ireland? Or any movement dedicated to separating Ulster/NI from the rest of the island? How successful are they?

So Ireland is... complicated... especially when comparing the OTL politicians and politicla trends to TTL. @Gonzo was most gracious in putting together a suggested list of Irish first ministers, which I am in the process of combining with my own list as I map the most recent Irish election.

Current ideas:

In Irish politics the concept of a "united Ireland" trumps everything else, so home rule was enacted on an All-Ireland basis in both the late 18th and late 19th centuries. Basically a lot of Irish parties are regionalist in nature, but none of them are willing to rock the status quo too much, as the idea of independence is a heated issue. There was a brief Easter Rising equivalent ITTL, but given it was put down by the local Irish forces than the British it doesn't result in the same chain of events than OTL. The Irish Unionists, which draw a lot of support from Ulster, have consistently made clear that any moves towards independence would be opposed by them and result in a vote in Ulster on secession. Sinn Féin remains broadly monarchist but gradually takes on centre-left and social democratic policies, along with more regionalist policies pro-independence positions (sort of akin to TTLs SNP). Fianna Éireann is the main Irish republican party, which advocates for complete Irish independence from the Empire as a republic.

Edit: to follow this, who are the party leaders in the Lords?

TBH the Lords is not completely mapped out, my current thoughts are:

Conservatives: Lockwood Smith, Lord Smith of Paparoa (New Zealand)​

Social Democrats: Amir Peretz, Lord Peretz of Larache (Gibraltar)​

Liberals: Valerie Jarrett, Baroness Jarrett (Ohio Country)​

The other parties in the Commons are either unrepresented in the Lords, or have fewer than 6 peers so don't have a formal leader in the Lords and instead just coordinate amongst themselves and with the Commons leader.

 

[LeinadB93]

The 2018 Welsh general election (formally the 24th Welsh general election) was held on 10 May 2018 to elect, under the mixed member proportional system, the 80 members of the Welsh National Assembly, of the 24th Parliament. Of the 80 members, 40 are elected under first-past-the-post in single-member constituencies, with the other 40 being allocated to closed party lists as "top up" seats based on each party's share of the popular vote.

The incumbent centrist Liberal Party, led by incumbent First Minister Kirsty Williams, had governed since 2012 in a coalition with the centre-left nationalist Plaid Cymru – the Party of Wales, often referred to simply as Plaid. Despite the relative popularity of the government going into the election, criticism of the management of NHS Wales and the lagging state of the Welsh economy were key issues in the election and resulted in the governing Liberals losing 4 seats, reducing them to the second-largest party in the legislature, while Plaid gained 3 seats. This still left the coalition with a workable majority.

However, the opposition centre-left Labour and Social Democratic Party, commonly just Labour, under new leader Huw Lewis, had benefited from the Liberal losses at this election, gaining two list seats and becoming the largest party. The centre-right moderate conservative Unionists lost two seats, while the left-wing Ecological Party won their first seat in the legislature, with leader Amelia Womack taking Newport West from the Liberals.

Under established convention, Kirsty Williams was given the opportunity to establish a majority coalition and initial negotiations between the Liberals and Plaid appeared fruitful until 13 May, when Leanne Wood announced that the nationalists would not sign another coalition agreement unless an independence referendum was held in the next parliament. This was unacceptable to the Liberal leadership, and two days later Huw Lewis and Kirsty Williams announced an "anti-referendum" confidence and supply agreement between the two parties to allow Labour to govern as a minority, with the provision of the next election being held in 2021.

At the first meeting of the new legislature, Huw Lewis was formally elected as the candidate for the Office of First Minister, with his nomination being forwarded to the Queen-Empress and the Prince of Wales, who formally appointed Lewis as the next Welsh First Minister.

Spoiler: Notes

Credit to @Turquoise Blue for much of the Welsh political system.

 

[Analytical Engine]

Go Liberal Party Go!

 

[StormStar]

Is there any political movement/discourse on that the current system of devolution/member states acting hot bed for separatism instead of allowing the people to govern themselves more locally as was intended, and needs to be changed?

Has their been any problems with National governments overstepping their authority and trying to assume some of the responsibility of the Imperial Government?

Have there been any arguments about the amount of representation given to any of constituent countries in the Imperial Parliament (either too much or too little)?

I ask because these arguments have come up a few times in the OTL UK over last couple of years and I would guess they would exist in the TL UKE.

 

[Deleted member 78540]

just to clarify, in this timeline because i would have been born in NYC, I'd be an empire citizen and I'd be able to freely move anywhere I pleased in the CTA? Like I could just say "I'm moving to Ireland"?

Once again, I wish this timeline was real

 

[LeinadB93]

Go Liberal Party Go!

Indeed

Is there any political movement/discourse on that the current system of devolution/member states acting hot bed for separatism instead of allowing the people to govern themselves more locally as was intended, and needs to be changed?

Not particularly, while there might be some minor movements in certain provinces/states/dominions against home rule, these are minor and have no mainstream support. There may be some on the political right that decry home rule/devolution as precipitating the breakup of the union and the collapse of the empire, but these are very minor voices.

Has their been any problems with National governments overstepping their authority and trying to assume some of the responsibility of the Imperial Government?

Florida has been a regular culprit in terms of overstepping its powers over foreign affairs; influencing parts of the Caribbean and Central America, particularly throughout the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Every constituent country has a Minister of External Affairs (or equivalent) that handles relations with the Imperial government and the other dominions, and occassionally (usually those with external land borders) relations with neighbouring sovereign states. In the modern day its very rare for a national government to come close to overstepping its authority, as the imperial government will usually step in beforehand and "suggest" they think again or face going to court to test the legality of their planned course of action...

The counter situation has happened a few times; where the imperial government maybe oversteps into what the naitonal governments consider their areas of competence. The most high profile incident was the Civil Rights era of Carolina, where the imperial government had to step in to enforce an end to segregation and enforce the enfranchisement of Afro-Carolinians (a legacy is that any electoral law in Carolina or its states is reviewed by the impeial parliament, and the states must use federal electoral boroughs). Many dominion government opposed this as an over-reach by the imperial government; condeming the imperial interference in a dominion matter, while still condeming segregation. When the imperial government stepped into Louisiana in the later stages of The Troubles, it was still controversial, but less so.

Have there been any arguments about the amount of representation given to any of constituent countries in the Imperial Parliament (either too much or too little)?

Not recently, as since the adoption of MMP seats are allocated based on population with each constituent country guaranteed at least one seat. But historically there was much criticism that the original Act of Union declared that no constituent country would have its representation in the Commons reduced without its consent; so whenever the census took place, each constituent country automatically had the same number of seats as the previous census - regardless of any change in its population - and then any enlargement of the Commons had to be made based on that.

just to clarify, in this timeline because i would have been born in NYC, I'd be an empire citizen and I'd be able to freely move anywhere I pleased in the CTA? Like I could just say "I'm moving to Ireland"?

Once again, I wish this timeline was real

Yep so as a citizen of the United Empire you could travel, live and work in any part of the CTA; so all of North America, most of the Caribbean, Australasia, Hawaii, Cyprus and most of the Pacific and the Nordic Federation. Plus there is reciprocal arrangements to ease access to the Schengen Area, though without the same freedoms to work and reside in the EU.

So yeah, as a Columbian you could as easily move to Carolina or Ireland as you could to Patagonia or Cuba. As the name suggests, the CTA functions pretty much the same as the OTL equivalent between the UK and Ireland.

 

[Wayside]

The counter situation has happened a few times; where the imperial government maybe oversteps into what the naitonal governments consider their areas of competence. The most high profile incident was the Civil Rights era of Carolina, where the imperial government had to step in to enforce an end to segregation and enforce the enfranchisement of Afro-Carolinians (a legacy is that any electoral law in Carolina or its states is reviewed by the impeial parliament, and the states must use federal electoral boroughs). Many dominion government opposed this as an over-reach by the imperial government; condeming the imperial interference in a dominion matter, while still condeming segregation. When the imperial government stepped into Louisiana in the later stages of The Troubles, it was still controversial, but less so.

Does this mean that dominions maintain their own military forces? I'd imagine that they would have some sort of National Guard equivalent, of course.

 

[Julio974]

Does Volt Europa exist in this timeline? And is it stronger than OTL?

 

[TheReformer]

The 2018 Welsh general election (formally the 24th Welsh general election) was held on 10 May 2018

It confuses me how, even for Wales, the party system features 94.88% left of centre electorate. The lowest collective vote centre of right parties have ever scored in the popular vote in Wales IOTL is 21%. It seems kinda weird for there to be essentially no centre right party. Well, excluding one Assembly election in 1999 when Plaid was more right wing.

Outside of that, cool box! Love the map.

 

[Analytical Engine]

It confuses me how, even for Wales, the party system features 94.88% left of centre electorate. The lowest collective vote centre of right parties have ever scored in the popular vote in Wales IOTL is 21%. It seems kinda weird for there to be essentially no centre right party. Well, excluding one Assembly election in 1999 when Plaid was more right wing.

The Liberals aren't left of centre, though. The post expressly states that they are centrist.

 

[TheReformer]

The Liberals aren't left of centre, though. The post expressly states that they are centrist.

Maybe I should re-word. It surprises me that there are only 5% of the electorate that carries even vaguely right of centre views

 

[Analytical Engine]

Maybe I should re-word. It surprises me that there are only 5% of the electorate that carries even vaguely right of centre views

Firstly, the Unionists won 6.53%, not 5%.

Secondly, who's to say that a sizeable portion of said right of centre voters don't vote for the Liberal party? AMS is still subject to tactical voting.

Thirdly, the percentages add up to 101.41%, so I call shenanigans.

 

[TheReformer]

Thirdly, the percentages add up to 101.41%, so I call shenanigans.

😂 I hadn't realised that.

Anyway, I agree centre-right voters might vote Liberal, which is why I asked! I feel it unlikely though that only 7% of the Welsh electorate is conservative, given that the lowest OTL result the conservatives have received during their most right-wing leadership periods is around 21%, and that during those periods Plaid was more conservative. I can think of few to no examples of a nation where there such a small conservative presence. But of course, as I've mentioned already, that's why I'm asking - out of curiosity as to why, maybe Plaid is more Conservative ittl.

 

[aaa]

Random question—but are there any right-wing regionalist/separatist parties anywhere in the empire?

 

[Pokemon Master]

Random question—but are there any right-wing regionalist/separatist parties anywhere in the empire?

it's @LeinadB93's call, but if I had to guess, there might be a right-wing separatist party in Carolina that includes some people from OTL who I won't discuss here to avoid this thread getting locked or moved to Chat

 

[aaa]

it's @LeinadB93's call, but if I had to guess, there might be a right-wing separatist party in Carolina that includes some people from OTL who I won't discuss here to avoid this thread getting locked or moved to Chat

That’s an excellent idea, and seeing as we haven’t seen any Carolinian elections in this thread as of yet, I strongly second it.

 

[sarahz]

😂 I hadn't realised that.

Anyway, I agree centre-right voters might vote Liberal, which is why I asked! I feel it unlikely though that only 7% of the Welsh electorate is conservative, given that the lowest OTL result the conservatives have received during their most right-wing leadership periods is around 21%, and that during those periods Plaid was more conservative. I can think of few to no examples of a nation where there such a small conservative presence. But of course, as I've mentioned already, that's why I'm asking - out of curiosity as to why, maybe Plaid is more Conservative ittl.

OTL parts of the Canadian maritimes have been known to reach these sorts of levels

 

[TheReformer]

OTL parts of the Canadian maritimes have been known to reach these sorts of levels

In seats in some places perhaps, but New Brunswick for example that elected an entirely Liberal legislature in 1987 still had nearly 30% of the electorate vote for the conservatives. Meanwhile in Nova Scotia the Prog Cons' lowest electoral vote share in recent history has been 24%. The same goes for the Newfoundland Progressive Cons who won as few as 7 seats in 2015 still won 30% of the vote.

Basically even if a party underperforms in the actual seat count, there is always a conservative electorate greater than 7% as in this case. The very minimum threshold of right of a major right of centre party should he at least in double digits, or more. So I'm curious as to whether Plaid is more conservative ittl, or Labour is.

 

[LeinadB93]

Does this mean that dominions maintain their own military forces? I'd imagine that they would have some sort of National Guard equivalent, of course.

Yes indeed, they are variously described as the "Royal Guard" or "Royal Militia" and are basically TTL's equivalent of the OTL National Guard - they are under the control of the dominions, but can be imperialised during war time or an emergency (i.e. The Troubles).

Does Volt Europa exist in this timeline? And is it stronger than OTL?

Volt Europa does not exist ITTL, as European federalism is stronger and more mainstream than OTL due to a existence of a strong and intact superpower (the Soviet Union) on the eastern border. The EU has certain elements which make it a more democratic institution, and give it greater democratic legitimacy, like a bicameral legislature where both chambers are popularly elected, and direct election of the Commission President. So the impetus for Volt Europa's creation IOTL does not exist ITTL. More to come on the EU.

Thirdly, the percentages add up to 101.41%, so I call shenanigans.

Honestly, you'd think teaching Maths would mean I could check that numbers add up to less than 100!! Corrected now 🤪

Plus I'm bing watching 'Allo 'Allo...

Outside of that, cool box! Love the map.

Thanks

It confuses me how, even for Wales, the party system features 94.88% left of centre electorate. The lowest collective vote centre of right parties have ever scored in the popular vote in Wales IOTL is 21%. It seems kinda weird for there to be essentially no centre right party. Well, excluding one Assembly election in 1999 when Plaid was more right wing.

The Liberals aren't left of centre, though. The post expressly states that they are centrist.

Maybe I should re-word. It surprises me that there are only 5% of the electorate that carries even vaguely right of centre views

Firstly, the Unionists won 6.53%, not 5%.

Secondly, who's to say that a sizeable portion of said right of centre voters don't vote for the Liberal party? AMS is still subject to tactical voting.

Anyway, I agree centre-right voters might vote Liberal, which is why I asked! I feel it unlikely though that only 7% of the Welsh electorate is conservative, given that the lowest OTL result the conservatives have received during their most right-wing leadership periods is around 21%, and that during those periods Plaid was more conservative. I can think of few to no examples of a nation where there such a small conservative presence. But of course, as I've mentioned already, that's why I'm asking - out of curiosity as to why, maybe Plaid is more Conservative ittl.

In many ways the Welsh Liberals are closer to the OTL Australian Liberals than the OTL Liberal Democrats. They are still a centrist party following social liberalism, but with a strong strands of classical liberalism and liberal conservatism. So they are slightly right of centre, and many "small c" conservatives back them rather than the Unionists. Hope that makes sense.

Random question—but are there any right-wing regionalist/separatist parties anywhere in the empire?

it's @LeinadB93's call, but if I had to guess, there might be a right-wing separatist party in Carolina that includes some people from OTL who I won't discuss here to avoid this thread getting locked or moved to Chat

That’s an excellent idea, and seeing as we haven’t seen any Carolinian elections in this thread as of yet, I strongly second it.

Carolina is in the works, and indeed the local Heritage affiliate is right-wing and the most separatist of all the Heritage affiliates - a legacy of their disatisfaction with the infringement on "dominion rights".

@Pokemon Master - does your offer of looking at New Jersey still stand?