Hadrian's Consolidation - reboot

[Hecatee]

What does Rome have that China wants? Oh sure, there's lots of things the Romans can teach them ittl, but material goods that are so expensive they can be carried that far profitably?

Increased trade could easily just lead to a faster outflow of bullion to the east, worsening Rome's currency woes. iOTL, it was bad enough. Iirc.

That is an excellent question. The answer is cash (or rather bullion), glasswork, maybe some other forms of artwork, and more cash. The Romans on the other hand want mainly silk and taxes : the trade with the far east (though the silk road) was the source of a large part of the imperial budget, maybe as much as 20% (eastern trade overall made for up to 1/3rd of the imperial budget). That a lot of these taxes was in fact but a fraction of their bullion losses was not that well understood, although guessed as seen in Pliny.

 

[Fortuna]

Well maybe with its technological advantage Rome will sell technological goods to China like steam engines or those canal digging machines they have but not actually teach the Chinese how to make them so as to keep them dependent on the Roman's for it and also put all manuals for it in Latin as an extra barrier. Bit of a strange idea but for now that seems like the only thing Roman's can really sell to china
The modern day analogue to this would be how Israel manufactures a lot of high technology and sells it, of course they don't put the manuals in Hebrew or anything but my point still stands that you can sell technological goods.

 

[KACKO]

Well maybe with its technological advantage Rome will sell technological goods to China like steam engines or those canal digging machines they have but not actually teach the Chinese how to make them so as to keep them dependent on the Roman's for it and also put all manuals for it in Latin as an extra barrier. Bit of a strange idea but for now that seems like the only thing Roman's can really sell to china
The modern day analogue to this would be how Israel manufactures a lot of high technology and sells it, of course they don't put the manuals in Hebrew or anything but my point still stands that you can sell technological goods.

At that stage, if Chinese have better metallurgy once you sell one steam machine and teach thwm operate it, few years, heck few month and they are making copies.

 

[Fortuna]

At that stage, if Chinese have better metallurgy once you sell one steam machine and teach thwm operate it, few years, heck few month and they are making copies.

Good point I guess the Roman's just don't have anything to give the Chinese at this point

 

[Ridcully]

Do the Chinese have much amber? if not that could be something the Romans export to them, also would provide Rome with the incentive to further control the supply of amber in Europe.

 

[SpaceRome]

Do the Chinese have much amber? if not that could be something the Romans export to them, also would provide Rome with the incentive to further control the supply of amber in Europe.

according to wikipeadia, the prussian coast has over 90% of the world's amber... so if the romans are going to steal silkworms from korea or china and seize germania major in some amber-rush, the trade deficit might be entirely reversed to make it favorable to rome instead of the east

 

[TheArbiterofAwesome]

I understood that the trade item that was going to be sold to China in this TL was glasswork?

A ton of the ancient shipwrecks which came from China were carrying pottery/porcelain. Is that a thing yet here or is that something they began doing later? If I remember correctly Chinese dishes/bowls were prized because the clay they used gave them a whiter look.

With Rome essentially cutting out the middleman how does this affect the Silk Road itself? How much damage does this do financially to the various trade states along it and does this weaken Rome's eastern enemies enough that Mesopotamia may be worth the effort to retake? Having trade ports open to the East (like in Southern Mesopotamia) to support sea trade with China appears likely to become vitally important and enormously profitable and right now they only directly control a few in the northern Red Sea, correct? IIRC the expelled Jews ITTL are controlling trade in Socotra, Axum, Yemen, Sudan, and southern coastal Egypt, correct? Would weakened Silk Road states be more inviting targets for Central Asian barbarians than Eastern Europe?

As an aside: should they really go all in for the Indian Ocean trade I would love to see a Roman Somalia.

 

[Hecatee]

I understood that the trade item that was going to be sold to China in this TL was glasswork?

A ton of the ancient shipwrecks which came from China were carrying pottery/porcelain. Is that a thing yet here or is that something they began doing later? If I remember correctly Chinese dishes/bowls were prized because the clay they used gave them a whiter look.

With Rome essentially cutting out the middleman how does this affect the Silk Road itself? How much damage does this do financially to the various trade states along it and does this weaken Rome's eastern enemies enough that Mesopotamia may be worth the effort to retake? Having trade ports open to the East (like in Southern Mesopotamia) to support sea trade with China appears likely to become vitally important and enormously profitable and right now they only directly control a few in the northern Red Sea, correct? IIRC the expelled Jews ITTL are controlling trade in Socotra, Axum, Yemen, Sudan, and southern coastal Egypt, correct? Would weakened Silk Road states be more inviting targets for Central Asian barbarians than Eastern Europe?

As an aside: should they really go all in for the Indian Ocean trade I would love to see a Roman Somalia.

AFAIK Chinese ceramics are not yet what they'd latter become, Jade would be a more likely export if it were not so restricted to the imperial family. So THE export is silk, silk and even more silk as the demise of the land silk road in the collapse of the Parthian and subsequent plague has cause a darth of silk in Rome.
Also note that there are very few roman ships at present time, and the sailing was done in part thanks to help by the Jewish traders who provided experimented sailors knowing the way up to India. The Jews will be the new middlemen but don't have much manpower and so can only rely on their money to influence the rulers of the areas. They will be able to deliver trading goods to either the Red Sea or the Persian Gulf roman ports (the Romans control the mouths of the Euphrated and Tigris), where the roman main taxes on the product are raised. There traders carry the goods overland to either Alexandria, Gaza or Antiochos for transport to Italy or further away.

The nations on the old Silk Road are indeed weakened, that's why I do indeed think they will fall prey to invasion and become the doors to India...

 

[TheArbiterofAwesome]

Thank you for your answer, Hecatee. I'm really enjoying this take. It's one of my favorite ongoing series at the moment.

I can see that there are few ships currently, but won't construction of them amp up as trade via sea becomes more extensive and profitable? Will the Romans be looking to expand through the Arabian peninsula to add more forts/fort towns (&, by extension, more protection of their ships from potential pirates, which usually become a thing in poorly protected shipping lanes)? Are there any seafaring states in that area (like modern Oman, UAE, etc) at that time that could be a problem? If there is no real organized opposition could Rome sort of accidentally digest the Arabian peninsula over several decades of steady settlement? It would make Mesopotamia much more easily defended to only have to defend one side.

What about Africa? Rome received trade via the Nile and other overland traders with gold and ivory OTL. We know they had animals from SubSaharan Africa in the Colosseum. Will there be any trading outposts set up a la the Portuguese in the Age of Exploration or the Arabs before them in East Africa? Would the Ivory gained in Africa be a good enough trade item for the Chinese?

 

[Hecatee]

Thank you for your answer, Hecatee. I'm really enjoying this take. It's one of my favorite ongoing series at the moment.

I can see that there are few ships currently, but won't construction of them amp up as trade via sea becomes more extensive and profitable? Will the Romans be looking to expand through the Arabian peninsula to add more forts/fort towns (&, by extension, more protection of their ships from potential pirates, which usually become a thing in poorly protected shipping lanes)? Are there any seafaring states in that area (like modern Oman, UAE, etc) at that time that could be a problem? If there is no real organized opposition could Rome sort of accidentally digest the Arabian peninsula over several decades of steady settlement? It would make Mesopotamia much more easily defended to only have to defend one side.

What about Africa? Rome received trade via the Nile and other overland traders with gold and ivory OTL. We know they had animals from SubSaharan Africa in the Colosseum. Will there be any trading outposts set up a la the Portuguese in the Age of Exploration or the Arabs before them in East Africa? Would the Ivory gained in Africa be a good enough trade item for the Chinese?

Happy to make something people enjoy

I don't think their will be that many new ships, at least for quite some time because the road remains very, very long, and a lot can be lost in a four year journey, so that's the kind of investment few are ready to make beside the state, and the state won't because it want to keep the silk price high to benefit from the border taxes... Also the truly adventurous explorers are rather few, don't expect a full blown age of exploration at this point in time

For the Arabian Peninsula, OTL by this point you probably have roman guarrisons in northern Arabia cities such as Hegra, a Nabatean town. Further south they tried in the age of Augustus, but retreated and currently they consider once more than the import taxes on incent and other similar product is more interesting than paying for the cost of maintening control of the incense growing areas. So they don't really plan on expending, except maybe in the Persian gulf area. So Oman maybe, Yemen no.

For Africa, it seems that the policy OTL was more of having trader or hunting expeditions going into the land but not much more. Distance, climate and little return on investment made sure they did not want to go, also they knew of organized kingdoms such as Axum so did not want to mess any further south than Nubia. Here we could see trading posts appear along the coast, but not now : the exiled Jews have no interest in helping them do so and thus the romans lack knowledge to found such trading posts.

Ivory for China is probably not worth it, they have enough far closer sources availlable, same for turtle shells for instance.

The most important thing for now is that the silk trade keeps happening. It has been suggested that part of the troubles of the 3rd century for the Romans were due to troubles with the silk trade due to Chinese political unstability that disrupted trade and thus the Roman state's incomes : here by keeping China more stable for longer I do make the Pax Romana longuer and thus the Empire stronger on the long term with new internal sources of income, conquest in all directions kind of disrupts this consolidation...

 

[Shogun]

If the Roman Empire survives long enough, could we see trade and commerce grow between the Empire and the various West African kingdoms and empires (Ghana, in particular) that arose in the region on the back of the gold and salt trade beginning in the 8th century AD? I'll be very interested in seeing how Rome and Ghana interact in your timeline.

 

[Hecatee]

If the Roman Empire survives long enough, could we see trade and commerce grow between the Empire and the various West African kingdoms and empires (Ghana, in particular) that arose in the region on the back of the gold and salt trade beginning in the 8th century AD? I'll be very interested in seeing how Rome and Ghana interact in your timeline.

I must confess I'm totally ignorant on the topic of Western (or Eastern for that matter) Africa in those periods, and none of the books of my library would help me get up to speed, I'll have to see if I find something on Academia.edu before I start going in this area... This lack of knowledge is one of the reasons I've kept to the "classical" world until now and very vague about China and the East. Also if it were a Greek TL I could see more expeditions, but that was not really in the Romans's mentality, so it may need special circumstances... Anyway I'll be thinking about it, but not for tomorrow's update which is far more pragmatic...

 

[EmperorOfTheNorthSea]

The Ghana Empire and the West African civilization won't be ready to set off until about 500 A.D.

 

[TheArbiterofAwesome]

A couple pirate fighting Roman towns in Oman launching expeditions to find and fight bands of ancient pirates in hidden bases within the fjords there just sounds cool.

On Mauretania: was there a reason the Empire chose the southern border there that they did and never seem to have pushed past it? Was it simply a function of the lack of anything worth pursuing in the coastal area immediately south of there? I understand the reasons for the East being Axum/Nubia and the center was a vast area of desert. I'm just interested in the area that became Morocco as it seems the Romans didn't really take much more than a sliver of the northern portion of the region.

 

[TheBerlinguer]

First post in this thread for me and going back to what has been written in the last page or so about the trade balance between Han China and the Roman Empire, I have a question:

would Roman like Ginseng?

By the current ATL time, Chinese medicine was already high on that plant, as miraculous as it was rare, and I wonder if some scholar among the many participating in Albinus' expedition could pull a Linnaeus 1600 years in advance and write a treatise about the properties of the root of the Panax, the "all-healing" plant. Albinus himself or one of the commanders who will lead the next expeditions could think about going to Korea and picking up some of that vegetal gold to try to make it grow on imperial territory (Ginseng loves colder climates and mountainous valleys shielded from excessive sunlight, items that are not that rare in the European part of the Imperium).

Why would that be important?

Because China just couldn't get enough of that root. In the 1700's Appalachian Ginseng was a great asset for the British trade companies since it was deemed high-quality enough that the Chinese would buy as much as the American colonists could grow and it therefore made a really convenient alternative to bullion as a trade item for the British coffers. Perhaps (and that's a big perhaps since cultivation of Ginseng was never tried on a vast scale in Europe) that dynamic could also apply to TTL's Rome-China commercial relationship.

 

[Fortuna]

First post in this thread for me and going back to what has been written in the last page or so about the trade balance between Han China and the Roman Empire, I have a question:

would Roman like Ginseng?

By the current ATL time, Chinese medicine was already high on that plant, as miraculous as it was rare, and I wonder if some scholar among the many participating in Albinus' expedition could pull a Linnaeus 1600 years in advance and write a treatise about the properties of the root of the Panax, the "all-healing" plant. Albinus himself or one of the commanders who will lead the next expeditions could think about going to Korea and picking up some of that vegetal gold to try to make it grow on imperial territory (Ginseng loves colder climates and mountainous valleys shielded from excessive sunlight, items that are not that rare in the European part of the Imperium).

Why would that be important?

Because China just couldn't get enough of that root. In the 1700's Appalachian Ginseng was a great asset for the British trade companies since it was deemed high-quality enough that the Chinese would buy as much as the American colonists could grow and it therefore made a really convenient alternative to bullion as a trade item for the British coffers. Perhaps (and that's a big perhaps since cultivation of Ginseng was never tried on a vast scale in Europe) that dynamic could also apply to TTL's Rome-China commercial relationship.

This is a pretty good idea I approve, but what if the Roman's like ginseng too much and end up over harvesting it. They've already done it before with a plant that was used as birth control but due to how much the Roman's liked it they made it go extinct.

 

[TheBerlinguer]

This is a pretty good idea I approve, but what if the Roman's like ginseng too much and end up over harvesting it. They've already done it before with a plant that was used as birth control but due to how much the Roman's liked it they made it go extinct.

Well, this the TL where Hadrian prevented that plant (or was it another one? Anyway a currently extinct plant due to overexploitation by the Romans) from completely disappearing, so at least there's that as a precedent against your scenario. It should also be remembered that it would be counterintuitive for the Romans to let a plant go extinct so soon after starting to cultivate it --maybe that'd be a real problem after one or two centuries of intensive exploitation, but in the meantime things could have changed so much on the international level the trade balance between Rome and Serica might by then be a non-issue.

 

[Fortuna]

Well, this the TL where Hadrian prevented that plant (or was it another one? Anyway a currently extinct plant due to overexploitation by the Romans) from completely disappearing, so at least there's that as a precedent against your scenario. It should also be remembered that it would be counterintuitive for the Romans to let a plant go extinct so soon after starting to cultivate it --maybe that'd be a real problem after one or two centuries of intensive exploitation, but in the meantime things could have changed so much on the international level the trade balance between Rome and Serica might by then be a non-issue.

Alright I see, I wasn't even aware Hadrian prevented the extinction of a plant anyways good point my argument has been silenced

 

[Hecatee]

Well, this the TL where Hadrian prevented that plant (or was it another one? Anyway a currently extinct plant due to overexploitation by the Romans) from completely disappearing, so at least there's that as a precedent against your scenario. It should also be remembered that it would be counterintuitive for the Romans to let a plant go extinct so soon after starting to cultivate it --maybe that'd be a real problem after one or two centuries of intensive exploitation, but in the meantime things could have changed so much on the international level the trade balance between Rome and Serica might by then be a non-issue.

Wasn't mine I'm afraid, when I looked at the data I had the impression that Sylphium had already died by the time of Hadrian and so I could not save it...

 

[Shogun]

I must confess I'm totally ignorant on the topic of Western (or Eastern for that matter) Africa in those periods, and none of the books of my library would help me get up to speed, I'll have to see if I find something on Academia.edu before I start going in this area... This lack of knowledge is one of the reasons I've kept to the "classical" world until now and very vague about China and the East. Also if it were a Greek TL I could see more expeditions, but that was not really in the Romans's mentality, so it may need special circumstances... Anyway I'll be thinking about it, but not for tomorrow's update which is far more pragmatic...

Then I encourage you to start with 'Africa: A Biography of the Continent' by John Reader, and 'The Civilizations of Africa: A History to 1800' by Christopher Ehret.

And I think I would also purchase, 'An African Classical Age: Eastern and Southern Africa in World History 1000 BC to AD 400' by the same author.