Had the Axis Won in Eurasia and Africa, Did They Have a Chance at Conquering North America?

As shown in title; had the U.S. stayed out of the war completely, no oil embargo against Japan, no lend-lease to the Soviets, Axis makes better strategic decisions and ultimately subjugates all of the old world powers (Great Britain, USSR) capable of bringing them down, would they have a shot at crossing the Atlantic and/or Pacific, and waging a successful war of aggression against U.S.A.?
 
I'll play along because I'm bored at work:

If everything goes right for the Axis and everything goes wrong for the Allies/USSR maybe the Axis can attempt to cross the Atlantic/Pacific and attempt some sort of "war of aggression" in the Western Hemisphere. Unless the Axis spent years building ships/planes and the Americans spent those same years NOT building ships/planes that "war of aggression" wouldn't go well for the Axis.
 
I'll play along because I'm bored at work:

If everything goes right for the Axis and everything goes wrong for the Allies/USSR maybe the Axis can attempt to cross the Atlantic/Pacific and attempt some sort of "war of aggression" in the Western Hemisphere. Unless the Axis spent years building ships/planes and the Americans spent those same years NOT building ships/planes that "war of aggression" wouldn't go well for the Axis.
See now, I'd just say that the Axis wouldn't stand a chance. The U.S. would probably be adequately scared of such a scenario to be building an air force and navy to defend their own coast or the sovereignty of any nations that may lay in an invasion route to the Western hemisphere.
 
See now, I'd just say that the Axis wouldn't stand a chance. The U.S. would probably be adequately scared of such a scenario to be building an air force and navy to defend their own coast or the sovereignty of any nations that may lay in an invasion route to the Western hemisphere.

Yeah, you'd need monumentally stupid American leadership coupled with monumentally smart Axis leadership...and even then it is toss up at best.
 
Well, they'd have the industrial capacity and resources to outbuild the US. And, to get this scenario in the first place, also the competence to use it well enough. Which is the big problem, really.
 
For Great Britain to lose doesn’t the sea mammal have to work?

IMHO not even a chance.

Germany would be too busy trying to kill as many “undesirables” as possible. They would need to garrison the crap out of the USSR. Russia was also practicing scorched earth. How long to get Baku up and running after being blown up? Real war is not Hearts of Iron. You don’t get to just add Russia’s production points to Germany’s. You have to retool, train, fix, find employees, etc. They didn’t even share the same RR gauge.

Then there is the US. They started gearing up for war on the Navy side in the late 1930s. Two Ocean Navy Act passed right after Fall of France. That would probably still happen no matter what is going on in the Pacific. What about the Manhattan Project? That was started out of fear of Germany, not Japan. Invasion fleets don’t survive nuclear bomb blasts. Super long range bombers under development in case US had to bomb Germany if GB fell. Then despite all of that, there is a rather large ocean between Europe and the US. There is a rather huge ocean off of the west coast of the US. So if they could build a Navy large enough to get a fleet to the US, find the people to field an Army large enough to invade the US, they would then have to supply them. Once again from RSR, “Amatures study tactics, Professionals study logistics.”
 
For Great Britain to lose doesn’t the sea mammal have to work?

IMHO not even a chance.

Mo, they just have to beat the Russians. They would have the industrial capacity of Europe and able to outbuild Britain + USA. After that, the Germans would have air superiority and could bomb Britain into submission rather easily.

Who let you out of ASB? :)

very few things are ASB and the Axis winning in Europe and China isn't even close. there are plenty of PODs that would get you there


to the OP: it simply demands that the Axis develop the Abomb and a means of delivering it to the US before the Americans build one and can deliver it to Eurasia. Difficult but possible especially in an Axis wins in Europe scenario
 
Mo, they just have to beat the Russians. They would have the industrial capacity of Europe and able to outbuild Britain + USA. After that, the Germans would have air superiority and could bomb Britain into submission rather easily.
Doesn't this entire scenario depend on how they defeat the Soviets, on how they manage to keep the Soviet government from rebuilding their forces and going back after their territories with a bloodlust?
 
No. America by the end of WW2 had half of entire world’s industrial production. No way they can beat the US Navy in hometurf.

In this “Axis Wins” timeline Europe would be presumably be bombed out, and it would take decades for Japan to develop China’s industry. Not to mention the US probably be doing the same for the Western Hemisphere.

An Axis Victory in Europe timeline is already highly unlikely, invasion of the Americas? Pure ASB.
 
Two Ocean Navy Act passed right after Fall of France.

Or, more to the point, the Two Ocean Navy act was passed due to the fall of France. With Germany left alone (Even momentarily before war with the USSR) on the continent. And this buildup persisted, and would continue to persist, throughout the war and until 1944, as after D-Day and the successful invasion the number of warships cut by the US was in the 100s - and further programs were cut later. Sans a successful toehold in Europe, the Navy is going to continue to expand at a monumental rate.

So even that alone shows how pointless a Naval War against the US Navy is in a Germany victorious timeline - even if the Germans gain access to every part of the British/French/etc Navies, combined with the Italian Navy... It'd not really be enough to even threaten. (let's not ignore how damaged the fleets would be in the aftermath of such a war as well. And let's ignore that at the least the British Fleet would have fled to the remainder of the Empire long before it'd defect to the Germans, even if they managed to not sink the French fleet (and it wasn't scuttled). By the time the Germans would have defeated the USSR/UK in such a world (as highly, highly improbable/impossible that'd be, the US Navy would have reached a scale that the Germans couldn't cope with.

So, on top of that, the US is not embargoing Japan? Then that implies that the Japanese are not being as threatening as OTL. Because if they are, there isn't much of a reason that war doesn't break out. Sure, Pearl Harbor may not be launched, but the war drums were beating louder and the favorability of war was growing by the month according to the period polling data. Eventually, somehow, the hand would be forced. The scenarios have already been well explored.

So no embargo and war in Japan means that Japan has not aggressed outside of China, which means that the UK, and eventually the USA, will start protecting the former colonial regimes - the US far more interested in replacing the regimes, of course, than the UK would be in maintaining them. Aid would continue to reach China, and the war would likely continue for some time.

Let's not forget that, in the event of the capitulation of a nation to the Germans, their territory in the New World would be occupied precisely to prevent the Germans from launching an assault against them. The nearest base for the Germans would be Brest in France (the Azores were to be occupied as early as 1940 under war plans to prevent their fall - in the event of Germany succeeding in conquering Europe, they certainly will be occupied precisely to prevent them from being used as a base.

So, let's picture our scenario. Stupid lucky Germans through ASB influenced dice rolls have managed to conquer everything by 1944/1945. They spend a few years and decide to launch an invasion in that time frame. And this is a German Fleet, accompanied by (likely) the Italian and French Fleets, who combined would have 1 aircraft carrier in 1941. Graf Zeppelin is not a carrier, it is an overengineered refit.

For that matter, let's just quote Plan Z, planned to be complete by 1948...

Type Projected Completed
Battleships
10 4
Battlecruisers 3 0
Aircraft carriers 4 0
Panzerschiffe 15 3
Heavy cruisers 5 3
Light cruisers 13 6
Scouts 22 0
Destroyers 68 30
Torpedo boats 90 36

Yes, 4 total aircraft carriers, of which the US would outnumber the Germans about 8-1. Not counting light carriers or escorts; that's basically near fleet carrier comparison there. Let's not even go into smaller vessels, at which point there simply isn't comparison. The Germans planned to have 68 destroyers in total by that time - the US planned to have 410 - along with even more DE to fight the submarine menace. The only projected numbers that might be close would be the battleships - without the Pacific war, the US would "only" have 17 to the projected German 10. With the cancellation of the Montana, they'd instead be trading battleship hulls for even more carriers, which would doom the German fleet even further.

And this is on top of the Germans having to operate on the far end of their operational range - the French and Italian fleets are even worse off, being short legged and used to the Mediterranean. They'd be forced to steam to the US Coast, or some other territory, to try and invade, and where they'll have to bring their supplies and invasion army with them. If they try to attack the US shore, that also brings into account the harbor defenses, which outrange anything the Germans could hope to build in terms of gunnery. It also brings them into range of land-based warfare, and gives plenty of tiem for the fleet to intercept... That is, if the silent service hadn't taken care of them.

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To get this to happen, you need a US of Man in the High Castle levels of apathy, and where invasion of US territory provides a decided "meh" reaction. The US in 1936 was over 40% of global warmaking potential. Germany, the USSR, France, and Italy combined couldn't quite match that - and the US never maxed out its economy as did every other nation in the war. And with a head start on naval production, there's no way to for Germany to catch up. And as the US can deny staging points that even hope to be in range for a medium distance...
 
Even if the US and British navies/air forces magically vanished the Axis didn’t have the means to actually put troops on American soil in any plausible scenario.

In comparison it took the WAllies (who had most of the world’s warmaking potential between them) several years to invade France after the Red Army had bled German strength in the East. France was 90 miles away from England. Nazi occupied France is over 3000 miles away from the East Coast and Japan is over 5,000 miles away from the West Coast.

German and Japanese troops could magically land on the East/West Coast and assuming no atomic bomb the US Army would still easily push them back into the sea. ASB would have to give the Axis super soldiers and comic book advanced technology for it to work.
 
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Fenestella

Banned
Nazis' South American friends who sheltered the fugitive Nazis in need would have been the victorious Nazis' friends indeed, more and more Latin American countries would jump the US ship and jump on the Axis bandwagon.
 
Yes since Eurasia + Africa has more resources than Americas they would eventually outbuild the US navy and army, given the government is stable and efficient which OTL Nazis were not.
 
Nazis' South American friends who sheltered the fugitive Nazis in need would have been the victorious Nazis' friends indeed, more and more Latin American countries would jump the US ship and jump on the Axis bandwagon.

I think the US marines would have something to say about that. It would NOT be the first time the US toppled a Latin American government doing things they didn't like, and it wouldn't be the last.
 
Mo, they just have to beat the Russians. They would have the industrial capacity of Europe and able to outbuild Britain + USA. After that, the Germans would have air superiority and could bomb Britain into submission rather easily.
And the fact you think that’s how this works is rather telling. Conqueringva country doesn’t magically add their industry to yours. Russia is going to be depopulated, and it’s remarkably difficult to get labor out of a hundred million corpses.

And kindly name one instance where a country was simply bombed into submission.

Even setting that aside, the US’s industry was GREATER than all of Europe at this point in history.

to the OP: it simply demands that the Axis develop the Abomb and a means of delivering it to the US before the Americans build one and can deliver it to Eurasia. Difficult but possible especially in an Axis wins in Europe scenario

Any scenario that requires the ASTOUNDINGLY awful Nazi atomic project to succeed is borderline ASB at minimum. The Germans hated theoretical science, and viewed atomic research in particular as “Jewish” science. What’s more, their team utterly failed to even get started, believing it would take more uranium than existed to make a bomb. But that was a good thing for them, because they ALSO thought a reaction would be self-limiting. Meaning that if they’d ever gotten to the stage of testing a reaction it would have killed everyone there.


Nazis' South American friends who sheltered the fugitive Nazis in need would have been the victorious Nazis' friends indeed, more and more Latin American countries would jump the US ship and jump on the Axis bandwagon.

And then the US Navy shows up along with marines/the army and politely informs the idiots in charge that they really should reconsider. Or they inform the suddenly extremely well-equipped neighbors of that country that season’s open.

Even at its most isolationist the US drew the line at the Western Hemisphere.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Yes, 4 total aircraft carriers, of which the US would outnumber the Germans about 8-1. Not counting light carriers or escorts; that's basically near fleet carrier comparison there. Let's not even go into smaller vessels, at which point there simply isn't comparison. The Germans planned to have 68 destroyers in total by that time - the US planned to have 410 - along with even more DE to fight the submarine menace. The only projected numbers that might be close would be the battleships - without the Pacific war, the US would "only" have 17 to the projected German 10. With the cancellation of the Montana, they'd instead be trading battleship hulls for even more carriers, which would doom the German fleet even further.
It's actually not even that close. The US would have 17 new battleships (North Carolina class and up) plus the 12 Standards, the two New Yorks and Arkansas. That's thirty-two battleships against Germany's ten. Three-to-one odds is not a formula for success for Germany. And that's not even counting @CalBear favorite ships, the six Alaska class. Which would probably be tasked with hunting down Germany's heavy cruisers and pocket battleships. And that's assuming that the carriers completely miss the German fleet (unlikely) or the two sides run into each other in bad weather and the aircraft are grounded. In other words, no matter how Germany meets the USN, they lose. And not only do they lose, they get crushed.
 
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