Had Germany not invaded Belgium in WW1, would the UK get directly involved in the war and how?

[kham_coc]

En-route, the German warships mistake a British ship for a French troop transport and open fire, sinking the ship within minutes. This is witnessed by the light cruiser HMS Dublin, which begins shadowing the German ships, radioing their positions to the British Fleet and news of the sinking. While frantically coaling in Messina, Souchon learns of his error and that the British are out for blood. The British Fleet is in Malta completing needed boiler repairs to HMS Indomitable and HMS Indefatigableand is also frantically taking on coal for the coming hunt.

There is no mistaking required, as Churchill had already (Illegally) ordered the RN to defend French troop transports.

 

[Catspoke]

This is a pretty well written and reasonable way to keep the UK joining the war without Germany invading Belgium, but unfortunately it still somewhat relies on the Germans threatening Belgium. I'm more envisioning a universe where the POD is that Schlieffen plan is scrapped altogether and instead alternative strategies are a adopted, the most likely of which being the Germans focus the majority of their forces on breaking Russia instead of France. At the same time though it's looking like the Mittelmeerdivision is a likely rub point anyways.

Is the whole Goeben raiding the convoys off Algeria really a thing in a east front first scenario? It isn't like there is an immediate need to delay the arrival of French troops in such a time line. Its an expensive warship to risk losing it frivolously, and its deployment would yes, very easily bring the British in the war. Might be best to just stay in Austria awaiting events.

 

[Aghasverov]

Although that may be true(ish) for the area around Besancon and Belfort, you got to remember that to the north there are the Vosges (very mountainous) and the Jura (even more mountainous).

If they want to advance in the direction of Paris, there is a mountainous/hilly region at the west of what today is the highway from Nancy to Lyon. It's a longer way than through Belgium and the hilly/mountainous part is longer too, and mostly more mountainous. Yes there is a flat(tish) part between there and the border of Switserland, but from the hills/mountains at the westside of todays highway you've got an excellent view of what is happening to the east of them. Which is were the Germans are coming from.

I think there's some very good reasons the Germans didn't pursue a great push through the Belfort Gap, or across the Vosges.... Looks like a deathtrap to me...

 

[Post]

I think there's some very good reasons the Germans didn't pursue a great push through the Belfort Gap, or across the Vosges.... Looks like a deathtrap to me...

That and the logistics are going to suck. I'm not sure, but the railnetwork is probably a lot less dense as in Belgium.

 

[Simreeve]

In reality, the treaty over Belgium was not that important. Germany had also signed that same treaty. Also there was a treaty over Luxemburg, noone cared about. The Netherlands should have entered the war on the allied site when Germany invaded Luxemburg. Those treaties, especialy when they are old are significantly less important than people claim they are. Britain entered the war, because it was afraid of German domination of the continent. Belgium was a useful excuse. Switserland would also have been as good of an excuse for Britain. It is just that Germany would not be able to accomplish as much if they went through Switserland instead of Belgium.

The fact that Prussia (not 'Germany') had also signed that treaty, and that Prussian-led Germany had then violated Belgium's promised neutrality, made the fact that they broke the treaty more important rather than less so: A government that's already broken one treaty can't be trusted not to break others as well, and obviously it's easier to show them the error of their ways before they've crushed your potential allies.

 

[AtomicWaffles]

Is the whole Goeben raiding the convoys off Algeria really a thing in a east front first scenario. It isn't like there is an immediate need to delay the arrival of French troops in such a time line. Its an expensive warship to risk losing it frivolously, and its deployment would yes, very easily bring the British in the war. Might be best to just stay in Austria awaiting events.

That's a good point actually, hadn't thought of that. However I wouldn't be surprised if instead of just not being there, the Goeben, Breslau and likely a couple of other ships are instead deployed to the Black Sea and used to deny Russian Merchant shipping from reaching Crimea, considering that at the time 80-90% of Russian imports came through there. If Germany's plan was to go all out against Russia, they're going to do anything they can to destroy the Russian war effort, and so I can absolutely see them deploying a squadron to blockade/convoy raid the region. However this is far from where the British would be deployed so it's still unlikely to be a rub point.

 

[Helmuth48]

That's a good point actually, hadn't thought of that. However I wouldn't be surprised if instead of just not being there, the Goeben, Breslau and likely a couple of other ships are instead deployed to the Black Sea and used to deny Russian Merchant shipping from reaching Crimea, considering that at the time 80-90% of Russian imports came through there. If Germany's plan was to go all out against Russia, they're going to do anything they can to destroy the Russian war effort, and so I can absolutely see them deploying a squadron to blockade/convoy raid the region. However this is far from where the British would be deployed so it's still unlikely to be a rub point.

That was probably the plan in OTL as well. This article on the 'Pursuit of Goeben and Breslau' states:

Without specific orders, Souchon had decided to position his ships off the coast of Africa, ready to engage when hostilities commenced in order to attack French transport ships, which were headed toward Toulon. He planned to bombard the embarkation ports of Bône and Philippeville in French Algeria. Goeben was heading for Philippeville, while Breslau was detached to deal with Bône. At 18:00 on 3 August, while still sailing west, he received word that Germany had declared war on France. Then, early on 4 August, Souchon received orders from Admiral Alfred von Tirpitz reading: "Alliance with government of CUP concluded 3 August. Proceed at once to Constantinople." So close to his targets, Souchon ignored the order and pushed on, flying the Russian flag as he approached, in order to evade detection. He carried out a shore bombardment at dawn before breaking off and heading back to Messina for more coal.[6]

Under a pre-war agreement with Britain, France was able to concentrate her entire fleet in the Mediterranean, leaving the Royal Navy to ensure the security of France's Atlantic coast. Three squadrons of the French fleet were covering the transports. However, assuming that Goeben would continue west to Gibraltar, the French commander, Admiral de Lapeyrère, sent the "Groupe A" of his fleet to the west in order to make contact, but Souchon was heading east and so was able to slip away.

At 09:30 on 4 August Souchon made contact with the two British battlecruisers, Indomitable and Indefatigable, which passed the German ships in the opposite direction. Neither force engaged as, unlike France, Britain had not yet declared war with Germany (the declaration would not be made until later that day, following the start of the German invasion of neutral Belgium). The British started shadowing Goeben and Breslau but were quickly outpaced by the Germans. Milne reported the contact and position, but neglected to inform the Admiralty that the German ships were heading east. Churchill therefore, still expecting them to threaten the French transports, authorised Milne to engage the German ships if they attacked. However, a meeting of the British Cabinet decided that hostilities could not start before a declaration of war, and at 14:00 Churchill was obliged to cancel his attack order.[7]

This article about the 'Ottoman entry into World War I' states the following about the seizure of the Ottoman battleships and the closing of the straits, a month before the Ottoman Empire became involved in the war:

On 28 July 1914 Winston Churchill asked for the requisition of two modern warships being built by British shipyards for the Ottoman navy. These were Sultân Osmân-ı Evvel, which had been completed and was making preparations to leave, and Reşadiye. Despite questions about the legality of such a seizure, the request was granted at a Cabinet meeting on 31 July, together with an offer to Turkey to pay for the ships. On 2 August, the British requisitioned them, thereby alienating pro-British elements in Constantinople.[27]

On 28 September, the Ottoman government in defiance of the 1841 treaty regulating the use of the Turkish straits linking the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, closed the Turkish straits to international shipping, causing an immense blow to the Russian economy.[41] The Straits were vital for Russian commerce and for communications between the Western Allies and Moscow.[42]

 

[Dorknought]

If not however, the Germans almost certainly win the war considering just how awful the Russian army was in hindsight and how the superior German navy would be able to easily overpower the French navy where even if Germany can't break through the Western front, they could blockade the French into submission. Of course at the same time, if the British are fervently indirectly supporting the French, they might also still attempt trade with the French regardless of a German blockade which could leave France with a method of getting around the blockade, and might even inflame hostilities to the point the sinking of British shipping would cause the UK would join the war.

From Grey's speech to Parliament 3 August 1914:

My own feeling is that if a foreign fleet, engaged in a war which France had not sought, and in which she had not been the aggressor, came down the English Channel and bombarded and battered the undefended coasts of France, we could not stand aside …(Cheers) with our arms folded, looking on dispassionately, doing nothing … But I also want to look at the matter without sentiment, and from the point of view of British interests … We are in the presence of a European conflagration; can anybody set limits to the consequences that may arise out of it? … We feel strongly that France was entitled to know – and to know at once! – whether or not in the event of attack upon her unprotected northern and western coast she could depend upon British support. In that emergency … yesterday afternoon I gave to the French Ambassador the following statement:​

​

‘I am authorised to give an assurance that if the German fleet comes into the Channel or through the North Sea to undertake hostile operations against the French coasts or shipping, the British fleet will give all the protection in its power …’​

​

I read that to the House, not as a declaration of war on our part … but as binding us to take aggressive action should that contingency arise …​

 

[Tibi088]

From Grey's speech to Parliament 3 August 1914:

My own feeling is that if a foreign fleet, engaged in a war which France had not sought, and in which she had not been the aggressor, came down the English Channel and bombarded and battered the undefended coasts of France, we could not stand aside …(Cheers) with our arms folded, looking on dispassionately, doing nothing … But I also want to look at the matter without sentiment, and from the point of view of British interests … We are in the presence of a European conflagration; can anybody set limits to the consequences that may arise out of it? … We feel strongly that France was entitled to know – and to know at once! – whether or not in the event of attack upon her unprotected northern and western coast she could depend upon British support. In that emergency … yesterday afternoon I gave to the French Ambassador the following statement:​

​

‘I am authorised to give an assurance that if the German fleet comes into the Channel or through the North Sea to undertake hostile operations against the French coasts or shipping, the British fleet will give all the protection in its power …’​

​

I read that to the House, not as a declaration of war on our part … but as binding us to take aggressive action should that contingency arise …​

It questionable at best of how compatible that is with the definition of neutrality. And knowing Grey I have doubts if he would communicate the terms clearly to Germany, And knowing Churchill I would not be surprised if he gave the order to attack the germans if the Hoschsee Flotte was out in a vulnerable (meaning cant escape battle with the Grand Fleet) position even outside of the Channel using the flimsiest of pretexts.

OTOH in an east first scenario Germany will not need to declare war on France like OTL - they wont have a need to attack them as per the Schlieffen plan. So ITTL the DoW will come of France.

 

[jonnic123]

This sort of the crux of the problem. OTL the Germans expected the war to be over before the British could decisively intervene, adopting a strategy that offers the opportunity for Britain to build up its army and for a naval blockade to bite seems to go against their entire philosophy. They have the same dilemma in WWI as WWII, they can't leave a hostile and powerful France at their back while they turn east. What the German really needed to do was avoid the diplomatic ineptitude that made Britain, France and Russia willing to work together, but that probably means a pre 1900 POD.

not necessarily, if the dogger bank incident during the Russian Japanese war causes an escalation between the UK and Russian forces or even a sort of cold war type stand off. I could see Germany doing little to antagonise the British while they deal with Russia. As soon as France is attacked then DOW is pretty much guaranteed. Having a hostile power across the channel again is not going to be acceptable to any party.

 

[Garrison]

not necessarily, if the dogger bank incident during the Russian Japanese war causes an escalation between the UK and Russian forces or even a sort of cold war type stand off. I could see Germany doing little to antagonise the British while they deal with Russia. As soon as France is attacked then DOW is pretty much guaranteed. Having a hostile power across the channel again is not going to be acceptable to any party.

But then you are piling up the PODs since there's really connection between Dogger Bank and the Schlieffen Plan and honestly it requires just too much diplomatic finesse from Willhemine Germany not to antagonize the British.

 

[jonnic123]

But then you are piling up the PODs since there's really connection between Dogger Bank and the Schlieffen Plan and honestly it requires just too much diplomatic finesse from Willhemine Germany not to antagonize the British.

all true but the premice is the schieffene is not the game the Germans chose in this tll

 

[lhagambia]

The British did not go to the aid of the French in 1870 when the Prussians attacked and without a direct reason to intervene they might sit it out in the short term.

Failing to invade Belgium means the Schlieffen Plan can't be used, that means a slogging match through the border.

 

[Rattenfänger von Memphis]

Let’s consider what past reasons had motivated Great Britain to consider going to war and/or issuing of ultimatums that might have led her into fighting a war. And what also deterred her from going to war. I think Riain summed it up well:

The difference between TTL and OTL is while the PoD is smaller than the invasion of Belgium it will be a direct action against Britain, her colonies or ships.

In 1861, in the Trent Affair , Great Britain got very angry when the United States removed two Confederate passengers from a British ship. The United States backed down and released the two men. Lesson: Don’t mess with the British Navy.

In 1870, during the Franco-Prussian War, France had a much larger navy than Prussia but France treaded carefully so as to not affect British trade:

But the main reason for the only partial success of the naval operation was the fear of the French command to get political complications with Great Britain. This deterred the French command from trying to interrupt German trade under the British flag.

Great Britain sent an 1890 ultimatum to Portugal ordering them out of trying to acquire a land link between the Portuguese colonies of Angola and Mozambique, land that Great Britain wanted for herself.

In 1893, Siam became a potential flashpoint between France and Great Britain:

In France, many were calling for a protectorate to be imposed upon Siam. But the events of July 13, followed by the blockade, which harmed British interests far more than French (British trade accounted for 93% of Siam exports), alarmed the British, who put pressure on both the Siamese and French governments to reach a negotiated settlement.

In 1896, the Kruger Telegram from Kaiser Wilhelm II angered the British who viewed it as interference in their dealing with the Boers in South Africa.

In 1898, in the Fashoda Incident, Great Britain ordered France out of the Sudan. And at some point there was also a British ultimatum to Belgium to vacate some African territory that Great Britain considered her own.

In 1904, in the Dogger Bank Incident, the Russian Baltic Fleet, on its way to fight Japan, mistakenly fired on British fishing boats causing a very serious incident.that could have led to a war had not Russia profusely apologized and paid for damages. At the time, Japan was in an alliance with Great Britain.

In 1911, the Agadir Crisis between Germany and France, led to the British sharply reprimanding Germany though not by name…

According to Robert K. Massie’s “Dreadnought”, page 733, David Lloyd George, British Chancellor of the Exchequer, was known to be “a radical, a pacifist. His views on foreign affairs . insofar as they were known, were considered to be pro-German; certainly he had always strongly favored an Anglo-German understanding.”

However, Lloyd George was angry because the German Government was ignoring Great Britain in Germany’s bullying of France. Some of his words on the Agadir Crisis from “Dreadnought”, page 732:

“I would make great sacrifices to preserve peace. I conceive that nothing would justify a disturbance of international goodwill except questions of the gravest national moment. But if a situation were to be forced upon us in which peace could be preserved by the surrender of the great and beneficent position Britain has won by centuries of heroism and achievement, by allowing Britain to be treated, where her interests were vitally concerned, as if she were of no account in the Cabinet of nations, then I say emphatically that peace at that price would be a humiliation intolerable for a great country like ours to endure….”

So, with those examples of Britain’s concerns, consider if this scenario, in which Germany never invades Belgium, can be a casus belli to get Great Britain into World War 1. Let’s further assume that there is a daring, but highly rational, carefully plotted Wilhelmine diplomacy going on toward Great Britain.

First of all, we know that there will be no attacks by German ships on the French Atlantic coast and certainly no German naval blockade of France because Germany does not want Great Britain to come into the war on France’s side.

In 1912, there was an informal agreement (not sanctioned by the British Cabinet at large) whereby the French fleet would be concentrated in the Mediterranean and the British fleet could concentrate in the Atlantic against her naval rival Germany and, in effect, be responsible for defending the French Atlantic coast.

Sir Edward Grey, British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, on August 2, 1914 (before the OTL German ultimatum to Belgium) got a majority of the British Cabinet to agree to prevent the German High Seas Fleet from attacking France’s Atlantic coast… From “Dreadnought”, pages 900, by Robert K. Massie:

On Sunday morning, Grey brought the Cabinet along, urging that “we could not stand the sight of the German Fleet coming down the Channel and, within sight and sound of our shores, bombing the French coast.” The majority agreed and Grey was authorized to tell Cambon ((the French Ambassador))…the High Seas Fleet would be held at bay. This was too much for John Burns, who promptly resigned.

So, Germany and Austria-Hungary go to war with Russia. Germany totally ignores France, not even bothering to declare war on France even if France declares war on Germany. (Consider it a “Sitzkrieg” or “Phoney War” a la 1939 – 1940). In the Triple Alliance, Italy is only required to enter a war in which France attacks Germany, Italy has no treaty obligations regarding a war with Russia.

Germany makes public declarations that she will guarantee not to violate the borders of Belgium, Luxembourg and Switzerland and encourages France to do likewise. And for good measure (and propaganda purposes), Germany also pledges not to attack France. This veiled contempt will clearly demonstrate to Russia how worthless France is as an ally and might encourage the Tsar to consider early peace talks. Besides, France has nothing that Germany truly needs or wants.

In OTL, during the Franco-Prussian War, once she was assured Belgium’s neutrality would be respected by both Germany and France, Great Britain was in no rush to enter that war. I see no reason that she would be in a haste to enter TTL war either, given the conditions I am presenting. Ihagambia summed it up…..

The British did not go to the aid of the French in 1870 when the Prussians attacked and without a direct reason to intervene they might sit it out in the short term.

Germany uses her navy, which is the second most powerful navy in the world, second only to the British Navy, to launch naval attacks upon Russia’s Baltic coast, but many battleships are also sent out to all the oceans except for the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea, to show Germany has only the utmost respect for British sensitivities. The German ships make no attempt to attack French ships and only defend themselves if attacked. No commerce raiding, no U-Boats, no stop and search, no threat to anyone’s trade, including France. By this somewhat unusual strategy, Germany could cast France in both the role of a war-like nation and a weakling who is hiding behind Great Britain’s skirts.

This naval strategy does run the risk of a potential Copenhagenization. Might this be a casus belli where Great Britain sees an opportunity to strike and cripple the naval might of Germany ?

Paul Emil von Lettow-Vorbeck’s original orders sending him to the German colony of Kamerun, instead of German East Africa, are maintained. It seems reasonable to assume that the French can only successfully attack the two German African colonies of Togo and Kamerun since the German Navy would rule the seas as far as France was concerned. Tiny Togo would fall quickly but Lettow-Vorbeck’s OTL success in German East Africa, could be be readily transferred to TTL’s Kamerun. ( OTL British are noted for highly regarding their chivalrous enemies like Lettow-Vorbeck himself, the Red Baron, Rommel, the Emden’s Karl von Müller..)

Once the French attack Togo and Kamerun, (something Germany may have actually hoped for) this gives Germany the green light to do likewise to French colonies (the British certainly believe in fair play, correct?). Germany avoids attacking any French colonies in Africa or the Western Hemisphere but focuses on the small, remote French possessions in the Pacific Ocean. Tahiti and French Polynesia are taken by German battleships operating out of German New Guinea, the Bismarck Archipelago, Kiaochau, German Samoa, and the Marianas, Marshalls and Caroline Islands.

A German fleet also seizes the French Chinese possession of Guangzhouwan (close to and similar to Great Britain’s Hong Kong). The Germans promptly return Guangzhouwan to China as a goodwill gesture.

Back to the war with Russia: the Germans win battles but the Russians refuse to make peace. All during this war with Russia, Germany has repeatedly urged Great Britain to mediate an end to the struggle, publicly calling the British “an honest broker”, Bismarck’s old title.

This Russian reluctance causes Germany to announce she intends to re-establish an independent Kingdom of Poland from Russia’s territory( but certainly not from German or Austrian territory). Poland’s freedom has long been desired in Western Europe, not the least in France.

The Germans end Russification in all the territories they have, or will, conquer plus end discriminatory laws and pogroms against the Jews of the Russian Empire. Germany pledges to liberate the subject peoples and help them establish independent states in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine.

These measures should greatly appeal to the many immigrant minorities in the United States and probably to President Wilson and the American people at large since Russia has a bad reputation as a hulking, massive, unpredictable, cruel power. But what will Great Britain think, considering its Irish problem ? Could this widespread world rebuilding and unilateral shape-shifting by the Germans be the casus belli that brings Great Britain into the war ?

Germany also attempts to get other nations to attack Russia, and to a much lesser degree, France. She encourages Romania to take mainly-Romanian Moldavia and the Ottoman Empire to recover territories lost to Russia in the Caucasus. She tempts China with recovering large parts of Siberia that Russia took from China in the past. Germany also entices Japan to take the rest of Sakhalin Island, Manchuria and the eastern Siberian landmass and to get an indemnity from Russia “this time”, unlike in 1905. Germany also dangles an isolated French Indochina before Japanese eyes. Germany might even encourage Italy to consider taking French Somaliland and redeeming the “losses” to France of Tunisia in 1881 and even Nice and Savoy in 1860.

Great Britain at this time would be similar to OTL World War I United States. She would be getting rich and making money by selling supplies to both sides (Germany and France). Her people would not be dying in war. She might swallow what I have described above since Germany would not actually be taking any Russian territory for herself but there is one area that Great Britain might have objections…

In 1907, Great Britain and Russia had concluded the Anglo-Russian Convention in which Persia was, in effect, divided between them. North Persia was a Russian sphere of influence while South Persia was allotted to the British sphere. Central Persia was open to both. All this was done without consulting the Persians.

If Germany, along with the other nations she is tempting, also urges Persia to overthrow the Russian control of North Persia, might not the British be fearful that the Persians might attempt to drive her out of South Persia ?

Would that be a bridge too far for Great Britain,or would she have reached that bridge long before this ?

What Germany gets out of all of this is a reputation for restraint and basically seeking to live in peace, not war-like Huns spreading terror everywhere. Like Bismarck’s Germany, the Kaiser’s Germany is a satiated power notably not seeking conquests. She is known as a loyal ally, defending Austria-Hungary, much like Great Britain is defending France. And, most importantly, Germany enhances her position in Europe by substantially altering her eastern frontiers for the better. As A. J. P. Taylor expressed the situation in his book “The Origins of the Second World War”, pages 20 – 21, for OTL post-World War I, it also applies to the scenario described above:

In March 1918 the new Bolshevik rulers made a peace of surrender at Brest-Litovsk. Subsequent defeat in the West compelled Germany to abandon the gains which she then made. The larger result could not be undone. Russia fell out of Europe and ceased to exist, for the time being, as a Great Power. The constellation of Europe was profoundly changed—and to Germany’s advantage. Where there had formally been a Great Power on her Eastern frontier, there was now a No Man’s land of small states and beyond it an obscurity of ignorance.

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

Secondly, the War might not have been so popular in Britain and especially Ireland. The "Rape of Belgium" (especially of Belgian Nuns) was a rallying cry for recruitment in Ireland. Would the Irish Parliamentary Party have backed it so whole heartedly if it were seen in Ireland as a cynical excuse to defeat an economic rival? Would Labour in Britain.

These sentiments wouldn’t prevent the DOW but could affect how the war developed.

This part is also crucial in terms of American involvement. The Rape of Belgium swung American public opinion in favor of the Entente, which made the US government less inclined to block arms shipments to Britain, which led to American losses to USW, and thus, American entry into the war. It's possible that the weapons sales still happen without the Rape of Belgium, but that would also depend on what happens in Ireland. If unrest in Ireland leads to the Black and Tans rampaging a few years early, the USA is definitely not going to back the British cause.

It is not as impractical as people often claim it is. The parts bordering Germany and France are the lowest parts of Switserland. Mind you, that does not make it practical. Just not as unpractical as people think it is. Belgium was a better choice. At best the highest parts of Belgium are comparable to the lowest parts of Switserland. Especialy since I doubt Britain would care which neutral nation you invaded, Belgium or Swotserland. Both would be a good reason for a casus Belli.

Belgium's position along the coast made it an issue of much greater concern in terms of British security. Also were there any comparable treaties Britain had signed vis a vis Switzerland?

 

[NoMommsen]

Firt I would like to adress some naval matters:

Without the Invasion of Belgium Britian doesn't declare war on August 4, so the Goeben & Breslau go west, refuel in Spain, and head back to Germany. ...

... never ever considered IOTL since the assassination of Sarajevo.
On 3rd August (after first the request for the Goeben to show up at Constantinople or 2nd August was rejected, only after the Kaiser learnt of the signing of the german-ottoman pact they were all fire 'n flame for) both Tirpitz as well as v.Pohl (just another sign of the rather ... suboptimal organisation of the german naval high command) sent orders to Suchon to head towards Consrtantinople ASAP.
This order reached Suchon IOTL after he learnt of the state of war with France on 3rd August and only a few hours before he conducted the bombardement of Bone and Philippville.

Therefore IOTL he would head towards Constantinople without any bombardement of french assets becomming there the well known threat to the russians as of IOTL. ... maybe with some more stokers still alive without the racing to the Dardanelles of IOTL to escape the Brits.

... The 2 British built battleships go to Turkey, ...

Simply : NO.

For the umpteenth time :
the seizure of the Resadiye (later HMS Erin) and Sultan Osman-i Evvel (former Rio de Janeiro, later HMS Agincourt) was already dead set at 29th July by Churchill, the yard informed to hold back the ships on 30th July and on 31st the yards Captain superintendent ordered to do so.
On 1st August finally the seizure was execute at afternoon, this info reaching Constantinople late at night being the straw that broke the last francophil-Pasha-camels back in favor of finally signing the german-ottoman alliance the next day.
The battleships were 'lost' for Turkey well before there was any action at all at the comming western front or any DoW outspoken.


Then ... as always/so often I'm astonished how firm and how well so many know what 'Britain' should/would do :

might the Hell freeze​

or

the Heavens burn to ashes​

Britain will/must/has to go to war against Germany no matter what

• no matter that all political parties were deeply divided on that question - military intervention or not - even the conservatives only the ones leaning somewhat more to it the others more away from it
• no matter that all the important politicians in England/Britain at this time had MUCH more than only one agenda called war, like
  • no matter that there's an irish question
  • no matter that there's a tariffs question (btw : this was Bonar Laws very special pet project)
  • no matter that there' a Welsh Church disestabishment question
  • no m,atter that there's some Scottish Home Rule question once again raising its head
  • no matter there's an land tax reform question (once again after 1912 and yet pet project of Lloyd George)
  • etc.
• no matter that all these played as much (if not even more) a role in the daily political cabale at as the silly continentals and their affairs
• no matter that there were as well germanophils and francophob and almost only russophobes aside the so much highlightened francophils.

Therefore I would rather agree with @agw

...
So the longer the delay the more it feels quite possible public mood would turn and Britain would avoid fully committing ...

 

[NoMommsen]

From Grey's speech to Parliament 3 August 1914:

... In that emergency … yesterday afternoon I gave to the French Ambassador the following statement:​

​

‘I am authorised to give an assurance that if the German fleet comes into the Channel or through the North Sea to undertake hostile operations against the French coasts or shipping, the British fleet will give all the protection in its power …’​

​

I read that to the House, not as a declaration of war on our part … but as binding us to take aggressive action should that contingency arise …​

... once again one of those Grey'ish ... incorrectnesses bordering lies (?).
Actually he sent a note with this content already on 1st August evening maybe after having learnt (by what source ? ... the 'official' informing telegram of Buchanan arrived at Whitehall at 23:15 well,after the informal cabinet meeting at No. 10 that evening had ended ...) of the german DoW against Russia on return from his evening (about 20:30) meeting with the king manufacturing the famous "misunderstanding" of Prince Lichnowsky on returning to his then 'home' at Haldanes house.
They then walked to Asquith and a/the quickly scribbled note reached the french ambassador shortly after 22:00 (as Cambon wrote in a letter to his son).

However, as @Rattenfänger von Memphis already said:
a contingency (german ships attacking french coast or ships) ITTL even less probable than - at first - IOTL as being asked about exactly that the german - including Tirpitz - couldn't be fast enough ensuring to comply to this english demand.

 

[pjmidd]

but many battleships are also sent out to all the oceans except for the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea, to show Germany has only the utmost respect for British sensitivities.

That makes no sense , Germany does not have the worldwide bases to support them , the ships themselves are not really suitable for long range operations and the screen even less so. Might send some cruisers but the bigger stuff will stay in the Baltic.

 

[Rattenfänger von Memphis]

but many battleships are also sent out to all the oceans except for the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea, to show Germany has only the utmost respect for British sensitivities.

That makes no sense , Germany does not have the worldwide bases to support them , the ships themselves are not really suitable for long range operations and the screen even less so. Might send some cruisers but the bigger stuff will stay in the Baltic.

It made sense in OTL 1904 so I think it would probably also make sense in TTL 1914 – 1915.

In October 1904, during the Russo-Japanese War, Russia’s Baltic Fleet sailed from St. Petersburg all the way across the world where it was destroyed in the May 1905 Battle of Tsushima near Japan. The Baltic Fleet made this 7-month journey without the benefit of any worldwide Russian bases.

The Baltic Fleet was only able to make this journey because the Germans, who did have worldwide bases, helped them to do so. As Lamar Cecil in his book “Wilhelm II : Volume Two”, pages 90 – 91, states:

Nicholas II had come to the conclusion that the war with Japan could be won only by sending his Baltic squadron halfway around the world to relieve the beleaguered fortress ((Port Arthur in Manchuria)).

Russia was ill-prepared for such an extraordinary undertaking, since its navy had few colliers and no colonial ports in which to take on coal. Fuel would therefore have to be delivered by foreign ships in harbors belonging to friendly powers.

To get the Baltic squadron under way, Russia contracted with the Hamburg-American Line (HAPAG), Germany’s largest steamship company, to coal the fleet as it moved from Kronstadt, the harbor for St. Petersburg, to Vladivostok, Russia’s principal port on the Pacific, from which point the relief of Port Arthur would be undertaken.

Wilhelm had given formal approval to the HAPAG contract, and from the beginning he was determined to use Nicholas’s naval plight to extract an alliance from Russia.

By the end of 1904, the Russian armada lay at anchor off German South West Africa, where it took on coal.

What the Germans did for the Russians, they could undoubtedly do for themselves.

The German colonies stretched from the Atlantic Ocean to the Indian Ocean and on to the Pacific Ocean. Germany had a lot of coal and a lot of colliers and their navy was superior to the French. And in TTL, the French navy is the only enemy navy they are facing since TTL Germany is strenuously trying to avoid making an enemy of Great Britain, hence no war at sea.

This TTL Germany only decides to seize small, remote French Pacific islands like Tahiti in French Polynesia, and only if the French first attack the German colonies of Togo and Kamerun. That is the extent of their naval war so they may not have to send out very many naval units, and maybe not any battleships because the OTL existing German ships in the Pacific were clearly enough to easily take over these French Pacific islands as the September 22, 1914 Bombardment_of_Papeete[/B]]Bombardment of Papeete shows:

The Bombardment of Papeete occurred in French Polynesia when German warships attacked on 22 September 1914, during World War I. The German armoured cruisers SMS Scharnhorst and Gneisenau entered the port of Papeete on the island of Tahiti and sank the French gunboat Zélée and freighter Walküre before bombarding the town's fortifications. French shore batteries and a gunboat resisted the German intrusion but were greatly outgunned. The main German objective was to seize the coal piles stored on the island, but these were destroyed by the French at the start of the action.

The German vessels were largely undamaged but the French lost their gunboat. Several of Papeete's buildings were destroyed and the town's economy was severely disrupted. The main strategic consequence of the engagement was the disclosure of the cruisers' positions to the British Admiralty, which led to the Battle of Coronel where the entire German East Asia Squadron defeated a Royal Navy squadron.

Of course, the Germans did not take over Papeete because, OTL, they were also having to avoid the British and Japanese fleets with whom they were at war unlike TTL

 

[NoMommsen]

That makes no sense , Germany does not have the worldwide bases to support them , the ships themselves are not really suitable for long range operations and the screen even less so. Might send some cruisers but the bigger stuff will stay in the Baltic.

May I ask what let you assume that?

• Revenge class : 7.000 nmi at 10 kn
  • Bayern class : 5.000 nmi at 12 kn
• Queen Elizabeth class: : 5.000 nmi at 10 kn
  • König class : 8.000 nmi at 12 kn
• Iron Duke class : 7.780 nmi at 10 kn
  • Kaiser class : 8.000 nmi at 12 kn
• King George V class : 6.310 nmi at 10 kn
  • Helgolan class : 5.500 nmi at 12 kn
• Orion class : 6.730 nmi at 10 kn
  • Nassau class : 8.300 nmi at 12 kn

Tbh ... I can't see much of difference at least in range qualifying the RN ships more for long range operations that the HSF ships ... (rather the different, given that the HSF ships range are calculated at a higher speed than their RN counterparts).

The ranges of the german large cruisers you recommend range from 4.200 nmi of the Roon class to 5.080 nmi of the PÜrinz Adalbert class with the Scharnhorst class in between with 4.800 nmi.