Had Eastern Europe avoided Communism, how much more developed would it be right now?

Thomas1195

Banned
It would be significantly less developed.
No, at least not for Czechoslovakia, whose industry was superior to Austria and was one of the 10 biggest by 1938 (due to the fact that the industrial heartland of AH Empire was actually in Bohemia, not Austria). It would gain a lot from Marshall Plan.

Then Poland and Hungary, both had higher per capita GDP than Spain, Greece and Portugal, and would also gain significantly from Marshall, especially Poland since they share border with Russia.

For Romania, it depends on how they use their oil reserves and Marshall aid.

Finally, I think Bulgaria and Yugoslavia would be the same or less developed, or slightly more if Marshall aid was used more efficiently.
 
No, at least not for Czechoslovakia, whose industry was superior to Austria and was one of the 10 biggest by 1938 (due to the fact that the industrial heartland of AH Empire was actually in Bohemia, not Austria). It would gain a lot from Marshall Plan.

Then Poland and Hungary, both had higher per capita GDP than Spain, Greece and Portugal, and would also gain significantly from Marshall, especially Poland since they share border with Russia.

For Romania, it depends on how they use their oil reserves and Marshall aid.

Finally, I think Bulgaria and Yugoslavia would be the same or less developed, or slightly more if Marshall aid was used more efficiently.

The effects of Marshall Aid are vastly overrated. Likely most of these countries would continue to stagnate under corrupt tinpot dictatorships and mountains of foreign debt. Brain drain would be a huge issue too. Obviously some countries would come out more harmed than others.
 
My assertion was in the context of a concentration of enemy troops in northern France so large, that the landing itself faced a significant risk of failure, not whether it wouldn't have made sense to point OTL's Overlord at Spains beaches.

edit: as to which ports, I would figure these

Ah, OK. Understood.

I can't really offer a very strong counter argument here. You make a great case, and in all honesty I don't even believe very strongly in the position I'm arguing. I could go your way almost as easily as I went this way. Thing is, if you take the Russians completely out of the war right from the beginning, so many other things are going to go so differently that it's almost impossible to account for every scenario. Given what we know, I think your guess is every bit as good as mine. Either way it makes for some interesting speculation.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
The effects of Marshall Aid are vastly overrated. Likely most of these countries would continue to stagnate under corrupt tinpot dictatorships and mountains of foreign debt. Brain drain would be a huge issue too. Obviously some countries would come out more harmed than others.
Well, if minor Axis combatants like Hungary, Romania or Bulgaria; or even non-Axis like Poland experienced regime changes towards democracy under Wallies occupation/liberation like Italy and Japan, they would have no problem developing much faster than under Soviet regime. Many of these countries were actually richer than Spain, Greece and Portugal.

For Czech, it was a democracy and had the biggest industrial base among the small countries (like Austria, Scandinavia or Low Countries) in Europe, so it would not face 4 lost decades under Communism.
 
If we take "Eastern Europe" really narrow, this would open up another question: How much more developed would be Russia, Ukraine and Belarus without Red October or, alternately, after a White victory in the Russian Civil War? Because that's a path that's really never been taken, a Russian bear that has never existed this way IOTL.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
If we take "Eastern Europe" really narrow, this would open up another question: How much more developed would be Russia, Ukraine and Belarus without Red October or, alternately, after a White victory in the Russian Civil War? Because that's a path that's really never been taken, a Russian bear that has never existed this way IOTL.
They would be more better off under a Kerensky regime than under a White Junta
 

Towelie

Banned
On one hand, you can make the point that Communist ideology was often forcefully implemented with industrialization and even urbanization seen as prerequisites that needed to be speeded along, so Eastern Europe was probably to an extent developed by brute force much as it had been in Russia.

But the central planning of communism inhibited the growth of Eastern Europe, and post Communism saw the dismantling of the old inefficiencies come alongside oligarchy that picked winners and losers based off of political power from the old regime and those who were fortunate enough to luck into the right position at the right time.

That being said, if Communism was avoided, that might mean that the German Army was cleared of Eastern Europe by the Allies. This means significantly more damage and more people killed.

There really is no way to know.
 
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