Had Argentina Been Anglophone, Would It Have Been More Prosperous & Populous Today? (ctd.)

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: Before 1900' started by dovibear, Nov 22, 2018.

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  1. rfmcdonald Well-Known Member

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    Ignoring that Chile's record under Pinochet was not all that, Argentina at the start of the 1970s was still a relatively rich country. As the author of that paper noted, had it simply continued its growth trend, Argentina now would be as wealthy a country as Spain or New Zealand.

    Was the breakdown of Argentine politics into the dirty war of the 1970s inevitable? I'd choose to say not. With different personalities in charge, things could have gone differently. One certainly does not have to go to the lengths of having Argentina conquered by the British Empire and anglicized to make the territory of Argentina a First World country, not that this would be a good strategy either.
     
  2. dovibear Well-Known Member

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    Pinochet and the Chicago Boys, let's just say, set the foundation for the "Chilean miracle" that started to occur after the return to democracy in 1990. Despite presiding over horrific human rights abuses and severe economic downturns during his regime.

    But we're already getting a little off-topic by discussing Pinochet, the Dirty War dictators, etc.
     
  3. dovibear Well-Known Member

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    Or, once British Argentina has the colonies/protectorates federated and becomes a "white dominion", if it comes to that, the political elite (on the federal level and on the provincial level in many of the provinces) is mainly Hispanic while the economic elite is mainly Anglo, in a similar manner to how for a long time Quebec's political elite was French and its economic elite was Anglo, or how South Africa's political elite (from the formation of the Union of South Africa in 1910 until the abolishment of apartheid in 1994) was Afrikaner and its economic elite was Anglo.
     
  4. juanml82 Well-Known Member

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    So, like OTL during the first half of the 20th century?
     
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  5. dovibear Well-Known Member

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    In OTL Argentina, both the political and economic elites were mainly Hispanic and they were quite interconnected (to a greater degree, as far as I believe, than the political and economic elites in the Anglo countries), although certainly the economic elite (I'm not sure as much the political elite) was quite connected with Britain. OTL Anglo-Argentines comprised a good portion of the economic elite, but nowhere near as much as in ATL British Argentina.
     
  6. dovibear Well-Known Member

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    If Argentina had continued its GDP per capita growth trend past the early 1970s, with different personalities leading the country, it might be a wealthier country than IOTL but it would still have had political/economic breakdowns, albeit like those of the 1950s and 1960s and not like during the Dirty War era and thereafter. I mean, there were coups and such already in the 1950s/1960s (e.g. Ongania).
     
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  7. LouisTheGreyFox The Hyperactive Furry Historian

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    I have another question. If a British Argentina exists then what happens to the rest of Latin American politically? Would plenty of countries in South America (if not Latin America in general) would still end up becoming dictatorships? Is Pinochet butterflied away? Would the 1963 Brazilian coup be butterflied away (that is if it still gets rid of the monarchy)?

    I mean to think of it I wonder what a British Argentina would feel being surrounded by neighbors that aren't democracies.
     
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  8. juanml82 Well-Known Member

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    Maybe this British Argentina is the one propping up anticommunist dictatorships
     
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  9. Lenwe Well-Known Member

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    No?, most of the Chicago boys policies were thrown by the windows in the 1982 economic crisis, this is like Saying the Hitler Regiment give the conditions to the spectacular economic develop of Western Germany after the WWII, after all the economical institutions proposed and developed by Hitler weren´t changed by the new Democratic government and only introduced "minor" economics reforms.
     
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  10. dovibear Well-Known Member

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    I see the Pinochet dictatorship being butterflied away for sure, because IOTL Salvador Allende won the 1970 Chilean election by just a whisker, and somewhat less of a percentage of people living in poverty in Chile (which is an implication of a British and wealthier Argentina - the two going hand in hand in my opinion) means that the more moderate Jorge Alessandri wins instead. An Alessandri presidency is less likely to lead to Augusto Pinochet staging a coup and taking over the country with an iron fist.

    With a British Argentina around, I still see dictatorships popping up in Brazil, Peru, and various other Latin American countries. I have a strong feeling that the democracy in British Argentina would be strong enough to survive despite being near dictatorial countries. Just look at countries like Costa Rica, Botswana, India, and Israel.
     
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  11. Clandango Disestablishmentarianist

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    Oh dear. Seems like this will push Argentina out of the 'we're all buddies here' things that Latin America had. Well, some say they did. Basically ever single border in South America had some war or major dispute at it, though Brazil made out like a bandit as Bolivia, Peru, and others didn't want to waste the men and money finding a war in the middle of nowhere. I don't know if Argentina would stay in one piece in this world. Where are all the Anglophones going to come from, anyways? The British managed to make Ontario mostly Anglophonic, but that was because they had tens of thousands, perhaps a hundred thousand or so, Loyalists to fill the place with.
     
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  12. dovibear Well-Known Member

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    Even IOTL, in the early 20th century, Argentines (I assume along with Uruguayans) thought of themselves as separate from the rest of South America - there was "Argentina" and there was "South America" - and they thought of themselves as being a piece of Europe in the South American continent. A British Argentina would accentuate that sort of feeling.

    More as for British Argentina, it would in large part ultimately stay as one piece - and add Uruguay, the Falklands/Malvinas, and those parts of Tierra del Fuego and far southern Patagonia that IOTL are in Chile. Most likely Cordoba ultimately stays in Argentina (though for a long time in the 1800s it's an independent republic of its own), and maybe Cuyo* (also an independent republic for a long time in the 19th century), and maybe Corrientes/Misiones too (if those aren't already colonized by ex-guerrillas - like Artigas and his followers - originally from Uruguay). Otherwise, Tucuman/Salta and surrounding areas ultimately become either their own republic or join Bolivia, and the Chaco (and perhaps Corrientes/Misiones too) join Paraguay.

    *Cuyo has too few road and rail links to neighbouring Chile, with even those links liable to shut down due to foul mountain weather, to warrant union with Chile in all probability.

    The Anglophones coming to Argentina - who aren't enough to form a majority over the whole country - come from the same sources that came IOTL to the Anglo lands. Slightly more people migrate from Britain and Ireland than IOTL, and a few of those who IOTL went to the USA (the largest recipient of such immigrants) or to Canada, Australia, etc. go instead to Argentina. Regarding Ontario (plus New Brunswick), it is true that the initial Anglo immigrants were Loyalists from the USA, but subsequently many more came straight from the British Isles.
     
  13. LouisTheGreyFox The Hyperactive Furry Historian

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    So for much of the early days basically it be only British settlers arriving.
     
  14. dovibear Well-Known Member

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    Throughout most of the 19th century, yeah that would be the case. Though at that time there might be some settlers from Germany, Holland/Belgium/Luxembourg, Scandinavia, Switzerland, and even North Italy who would go especially to the family farms of such areas as Entre Rios and Santa Fe, plus - when Buenos Aires is independent through the 1830s or 1840s - some from France, Italy, etc.

    Around the turn of the 20th century, immigration from throughout Italy and Spain - plus Eastern Europe - becomes much more important (with Italians and Spaniards being attracted to Argentina, for various reasons, despite being in the British Empire), though there's still plenty of immigration from the British Isles and Northwest Europe at that time too.
     
  15. HowAboutThisForAName Manservant to Melon the Mischievous Mog

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    This presents an excellent opportunity to explain the two popular forms of exploring alternate history.
    1. Absolutely everything after the POD is different and no one who was born IOTL is born ITTL. This is the butterfly affect, where the ripples of a successful British conquest of Argentina changes the course of world history. I tend to think this is the more realistic of the two. The coup, Pinochet, and the Latin dictatorships are automatically butterflied away. Something similar might occur in its place depending on the probability determined prior to the POD and how the POD affected those probabilities, but tends towards ‘unlikely’.
    2. World history follows a similar course to our own and all the people born IOTL are still born after the POD, but lead different lives. I call this the parallel universe affect, and it is much less realistic. It’s especially popular among map-centric timelines like Kanan’s New England and Leinbad’s Hail Britannia but occasionally pops up in actual timelines. Carp’s Kingdom of Corsica has elements of this (a banquet that ticks of the Genoese public still happens a decade after the POD) but isn’t a perfect example. Pinochet would still exist but we wouldn’t know in what capacity, as would Hitler and Ariana Grande. Because history tends to be formulaic in these timelines most of the dictatorships would probably still occur.
     
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  16. dovibear Well-Known Member

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    Or we could say that a proportion of the people born IOTL (whether a large minority or a majority) are still born after the POD and live more or less the same lives (in some cases maybe the exact same lives), and the rest who are born IOTL do live different lives ITTL.
     
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  17. HowAboutThisForAName Manservant to Melon the Mischievous Mog

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    Literally impossible to be 100% the same, unless you’re perhaps a North Sentinelese or an isolated Papuan native. If I turn on the television and instead of President of Argentina Mauricio Macri it’s La Platan Prime Minister Julia Gillard that’ll affect me, either minutely or as it happens quite substantially as this means Australia, my home country, presuming it still exists, won’t have Gillard as a historical PM. On a micro level perhaps the broad arch of a person’s life will look the same, PMs are pretty interchangeable here nowadays, but on the macro level it just doesn’t make good sense to have certain events happen exactly as IOTL, which brings me to my wider point.
    Your proposition on page 8 that the two world wars would happen as IOTL because ‘the POD isn’t far back enough’ is frankly entirely false and one of the reasons I was prompted to clarify the two generally accepted butterfly affects. I’m not saying a revanchist Germany following a wide European war in the early 1900s going ham on all its neighbours is necessarily impossible, but with a POD in the early 1800s the Nazis are almost 100% sure to be erased as we know them.
    A timeline I'm a huge fan of is Palmera, and it walks a fine line between parallelism and divergence as the goal is to explore a black-majority Florida within a timeline akin to our own rather than making something wholly unique, but even it doesn't follow world history exactly as that would be completely unbelievable. The world follows the same arch of history, but with differences in the detail. Many historical figures post-POD still exist, but they'll always lead somewhat different lives and they're intermixed with parallel figures who are like OTL figures and yet unique in ways that make sense given the ripples of the initial POD. As for the WWII analogue, instead of Nazism it's Vultism; instead of Adolf Hitler it's Karl Kreiger; instead of the Fernando Po Crisis it's the Bioko Crisis.

    So, circuitously, yes, if people who exist IOTL are still born after the POD they may lead similar lives to their OTL counterparts. But it won't ever be 100% the same, and so it must follow that important events in world history won't be 100% the same either. Sorry to sound so truculent, but that post's been bothering me for a week.
     
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  18. Lenwe Well-Known Member

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    AS I much i Love the Argentinenas, this is absolute Rigth, they are a bunch of guys more egocentric with haute opinion of themselves, arrogant and more self-centred that the stereotypical Argentinean, BEFORE the 2001 crisis, after they are pretty normal, assuming nothing else changes I don´t see how this will be really different.

    Cuyo have and is the principal route and road connecting Chile and Argentina and there will be more routes connecting both side of the Andes if only one country was in both sides and not, like as was historically used as a frontier were both sides have the interest that the roads connecting both sides are easily controlled, closed and defended
     
  19. dovibear Well-Known Member

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    All that you say might be indeed so, but for the purposes of storytelling it's easier to just use OTL personalities and OTL events (rather than what the ATL counterparts actually might be), especially if a) they're outside the geographic region that's the focus of the TL (in this case, outside the Southern Cone and South America in general) and b) the phenomena in the world in general are broadly the same. If one uses that sort of device, that might be a "historical fiction" in that TL, the way that in OTL historical fiction we very often use somewhat different names for the same event or historical figure.

    What you're saying is that if Cuyo becomes a part of Chile there would be many more railroad and paved road crossings between the two sides of the Andes, over more mountain passes, than what exist IOTL?
     
  20. Lenwe Well-Known Member

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    Yes, the same way there is a lot of passes and roads between California and Nevada, or between both side of the Urals, If the mountain it´s used as a frontier there is little interest and incentive to develop better/more roads and improve communication and interconnection between both side of the mountain. as was the case in OTL, in an hypothetical scenario were Cuyo is in union with Chile, there will be incentive and interest to develop more mountain passes and to make more easy the travel between both side of the country
     
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