Just my two cents:

- an all inclusive Balkan League will have the same medium-long time problem of Italy and A-H relationships in the CP as Bulgaria, Greece, Romania and even Serbia (even if puppetizated) have their eyes in a lot of the same territory (and Romania had interest in Transylvania), so i'm not very optimistic regarding Wien keeping things working for long.
- Conrad plan IMVHO will probably a less prepared 'Strafexpedition' that will end with almost no gain for the Austrian and just a lot of death (as OTL); much also depend if the italian command ITTL will believe the information that an troops are massing in Trentino unlike OTL
 
Just my two cents:

- an all inclusive Balkan League will have the same medium-long time problem of Italy and A-H relationships in the CP as Bulgaria, Greece, Romania and even Serbia (even if puppetizated) have their eyes in a lot of the same territory (and Romania had interest in Transylvania), so i'm not very optimistic regarding Wien keeping things working for long.
- Conrad plan IMVHO will probably a less prepared 'Strafexpedition' that will end with almost no gain for the Austrian and just a lot of death (as OTL); much also depend if the italian command ITTL will believe the information that an troops are massing in Trentino unlike OTL

A) Well there is a book ITTL called Decades of Tragedy: The Balkan Crisis 1903-1933 for a reason.

B) There won't quite be an Italo-Austrian war yet. Just a crisis in 1908. For now.
 
Hey everyone!

I am currently working on the Russo-Japanese war update. My Idea to start it off would be the Russians are more aggressive in their demands to Japan. Then suddenly a Russian warship blows up (unknown causes).

The Japanese rush to surprise Russia before war can be declared and stumble upon the Russian fleet rushing out to meet the Japanese as soon as war is declared.

The Russians accidentally start the war in the battle that ensues (Decisive Russian victory).

The Kaiser makes an attempt to encourage Czar Nicholas II to establish Russia as the Eastern hegemon and guard Europe from the yellow peril (his words not mine).

What do guys think?
 
Hey everyone!

I am currently working on the Russo-Japanese war update. My Idea to start it off would be the Russians are more aggressive in their demands to Japan. Then suddenly a Russian warship blows up (unknown causes).

The Japanese rush to surprise Russia before war can be declared and stumble upon the Russian fleet rushing out to meet the Japanese as soon as war is declared.

The Russians accidentally start the war in the battle that ensues (Decisive Russian victory).

The Kaiser makes an attempt to encourage Czar Nicholas II to establish Russia as the Eastern hegemon and guard Europe from the yellow peril (his words not mine).

What do guys think?

A decisive russian victory can be crippling for the IJN, they have limited resources and were kept in the war by loan given by american financers; the entire siege of Port Arthur and so the war can have a different outcome if the japanese loss are big enough to give the russian the possibility of leave their base, or at least to have a much less aggressive attitude due to initial defeat.
Nicky II it's probably idio...ehm pridefull enough to buy Willie suggestion, expecially if there is a favorable beginning and a russian victory in the war con prop up the Tsar and his goverment (expecially if the 1905 revolution is avoided and at least limited to some scattered riot, not that this mean that a revolution will never happen, probably the contrary as the nation problems were a little to big to be easily resolved, just that the big explosion is a little delayed).
General objective will be evict the Japanese from Korea and reparations; in any case i doubt that Russia will not keep a very watchfull eye on the balkan before, during and after the war as it's basically their backyard and panslavism it's an important political force at the moment.
 
Wait, what? How the hell does Russia manage to trash the IJA? Where is the fleet coming from? The Russian Pacific Fleet was hardly enough to fight them and reinforcements will take months and at that point, OTL is inevitable since the Russians have such a massive disadvantage. The best Russia can do is win the land war somehow. Doubt they can hold Port Arthur, though.

I'm not saying that Japanese victory inevtiable, but... the advantage was thoroughly on their side in the war even if it was a close affair iOTL.
 
Wait, what? How the hell does Russia manage to trash the IJA? Where is the fleet coming from? The Russian Pacific Fleet was hardly enough to fight them and reinforcements will take months and at that point, OTL is inevitable since the Russians have such a massive disadvantage. The best Russia can do is win the land war somehow. Doubt they can hold Port Arthur, though.

I'm not saying that Japanese victory inevtiable, but... the advantage was thoroughly on their side in the war even if it was a close affair iOTL.

Well, at least OTL the initial attack at Port Arthur was not a textbook operation; the initial wave of destroyers was intercepted by a russian destroyer flottilla, but it has order to not start anything yet so they retreat to report and even during the battle the overall majority of the torpedoes missed or not exploded...except the three that hit the best russian units and the battle the following day was still a minor russian victory as the IJN was not still capable of fully blockade Port Arthur.
So in that case a more aggressive stance can bring the severe mauling of the japanese destroyers and the Russian Navy can hit harder against the IJN in the engagement against the bigger units that were following ( nothing of crippling just a more decisive russian victory)...this can force Tojo to be more prudent and sap some of japanese confidence.
Finally it's important to consider that at the end of the war, Japan was on the brink of bankrupcy
 
Well, at least OTL the initial attack at Port Arthur was not a textbook operation; the initial wave of destroyers was intercepted by a russian destroyer flottilla, but it has order to not start anything yet so they retreat to report and even during the battle the overall majority of the torpedoes missed or not exploded...except the three that hit the best russian units and the battle the following day was still a minor russian victory as the IJN was not still capable of fully blockade Port Arthur.
So in that case a more aggressive stance can bring the severe mauling of the japanese destroyers and the Russian Navy can hit harder against the IJN in the engagement against the bigger units that were following ( nothing of crippling just a more decisive russian victory)...this can force Tojo to be more prudent and sap some of japanese confidence.
Finally it's important to consider that at the end of the war, Japan was on the brink of bankrupcy
Except that there is a major problem with the Russians intercepting the Japanese fleet (let alone the destroyer flottila) is that the Japanese attacked at night. It's nigh-impossible for the Russians to intercept unless the destroyers literally bump into each other and the odds of the Russians even expecting a surprise night attack are very low. Remember that the Russians didn't take the Japanese seriously at all until the Far East Fleet was practically gone and even then...

"and the battle the following day was still a minor russian victory as the IJN was not still capable of fully blockade Port Arthur."

That's a rather blatant lie. The next day, the Russians lost a cruiser in the battle of Chemulpo Bay. If you meant the following significant naval battle of the Yellow Sea in August (six months after the war started) was definitely inconclusive and the Russians had severe casualties. Remember, Japan has the home advantage while Russia can't repair severly damage ships (I don't think Port Arthur had the facilities, but I could be wrong) and they have a big chance being interned in China. By that time, Port Arthur was besieged since July, the IJA had the advantage (though not decisively until Mukden) and the Russians couldn't do anything after Ulsan.

Japan,s near bankrupcy, while true, is irrelevant unless the war drags on, which is a terrible idea for Russia to do.
 
Except that there is a major problem with the Russians intercepting the Japanese fleet (let alone the destroyer flottila) is that the Japanese attacked at night. It's nigh-impossible for the Russians to intercept unless the destroyers literally bump into each other and the odds of the Russians even expecting a surprise night attack are very low. Remember that the Russians didn't take the Japanese seriously at all until the Far East Fleet was practically gone and even then...

And IRC that happened in OTL, basically the two destroyers forces found each other due to pure chance...almost ASB? Sure, but reality had plenty of times demonstrated to be unrealistic; even a little earlier a russian gunboat come near the japanese fleet transporting troops to land in Inchon, and the brief firefight seen no score from either side.
Image if the fleet is more combat ready due to the Tsar order to be more aggressive (OTL many russian officers were partying during that night), or in general if more troops and equipment are sent on the Far East before the war; sure the Russian will be understimate the Japanese but the situation in the Balkans mean that the war need to be resolved quickly or the Bezobrazov Circle decide and succeed in bring General Kuropatkin away from the Far East before the war due to his perceived reluctance in a war against Japan.

Even a month more it's something that Japan can't afford, even more if the general loss are heavier than OTL and while their hometurf advantage his great and important the limit at the resources that the nation can put on the war effort it still a very important factor
 
And IRC that happened in OTL, basically the two destroyers forces found each other due to pure chance...almost ASB? Sure, but reality had plenty of times demonstrated to be unrealistic; even a little earlier a russian gunboat come near the japanese fleet transporting troops to land in Inchon, and the brief firefight seen no score from either side.
Image if the fleet is more combat ready due to the Tsar order to be more aggressive (OTL many russian officers were partying during that night), or in general if more troops and equipment are sent on the Far East before the war; sure the Russian will be understimate the Japanese but the situation in the Balkans mean that the war need to be resolved quickly or the Bezobrazov Circle decide and succeed in bring General Kuropatkin away from the Far East before the war due to his perceived reluctance in a war against Japan.

Even a month more it's something that Japan can't afford, even more if the general loss are heavier than OTL and while their hometurf advantage his great and important the limit at the resources that the nation can put on the war effort it still a very important factor
I would argue that Russia can't afford another month either. They wouldn't have accepted the humiliating peace if they were confident about turning things about.

I haven't read anything about a destroyer squadron meeting up the Japanese attackers and because of how unlikely that is, I'm not inclined to believe it. Especially since it also means that the Russian destroyers didn't react to it.

Finally, a couple of questions:

Can the Czar even give such an order in time for the fleet to be in such a stance? Arguably, the Japanese would launch their attack as soon as they realise they might lose the surprise element.

How would a Russian ship randomnly explode that would lead to then blaming the Japanese? Sounds very Maine-like, but how can that happen in these circumstances unless the Japanese really ARE behind it, meaning that it would be all part of the planned surprise attack and give the Russians even less time to react. If it's a random explosion, then why would they blame the Japanese? Unlike the Maine incident, the Russian ship wouldn't be in a Japanese port in a conflict zone heavily involving them. It would be in Port Arthur where Russians were responsible for and I doubt the other great powers would believe the story of Japanese somehow behind it. Hell, if anything, it makes Russia look like the aggressor and drags the UK against the Russians! In fact, now that I think about it, if the Russians sail out to meet the Japanese fleet before war is declared, then there is no doubt that Russia would be taken as the aggressor, activating the Anglo-Japanese alliance... which has way bigger consequences in the end. It put Russia in a much worse situation and gives Japan the financial backing it needs to prosecute the war.

Is the Russian Far Eastern Fleet even able to act if they are ordered to take aggressive actions? I don't know enough about the fleet's situation to answer this myself. Would they even bother taking the order seriously, not seeing the Japanese as a credibly threat if was hasn't been declared? What was the quality of officers in the fleet? Their commanders? Considering the failures of OTL and how they weren't to defeat the Japanese even once, I'm curious if the quality of the fleet was part of the problem.
 
I haven't read anything about a destroyer squadron meeting up the Japanese attackers and because of how unlikely that is, I'm not inclined to believe it. Especially since it also means that the Russian destroyers didn't react to it.

The russo-Japanese War 1904-1905 by Geoffrey Jukes basically the Russian Admiral sent the destroyers as a early warning and totally by change they found the Japanese flottilla and the russian reacted they retreated to alert the base (the one reason they were not totally caught by surprise) and seem that they have not received the order to engage any enemy. Plus the gunboat engagement on the transports and their escort directed at Inchon.

I would argue that Russia can't afford another month either. They wouldn't have accepted the humiliating peace if they were confident about turning things about.

It's a matter on who blink first and how the Tsar react to the protest, as if by change or pure luck the 'Bloody Sunday of 1905' is averted, it buy times for the Russian on the internal front.

Can the Czar even give such an order in time for the fleet to be in such a stance? Arguably, the Japanese would launch their attack as soon as they realise they might lose the surprise element.
.

Tojo initial attack at Port Arthur was launched on the premise that the Russian were ready to launch a strike and so the IJN needed to attack first...but the japanese had bad intelligence as the Russian Fleet had still no plan to sortie for the moment, maybe ITTL the order arrived some days before the start of the war.
 
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