Habsburg Resurgence: The Federal Empire Rises.

[J VonAxel]

Remember Italy had almost as many land claims on France as on A-H.

And the only way people think A-H is joining Japan is if A-H actually declares war on Russia. A war between Italy and A-H will actually help Russia, as A-H will start pulling troops and reserves from their northern and eastern frontiers and shift them south towards Italy. This means Russia could draw down its strength in the Ukraine and Southern Poland move them elsewhere, if not to Siberia as the logistics did not allow a bigger army there.

Should France get the idea that joining Russia would get them the loving attentions of the RN they will dump Russia without hesitation.

 

[Magyarország]

Thanks for the feedback! I'm glad I ran all that by you.

How does this sound:

Italian nationalists assassanate FJ while remnants of the Black Hand aim at FF. It doesn't have to be at the same time (e.g. the anarchists get to FF before the Italians get to FJ). A-H blames Italy for it and delivers an them an ultimatum. Italy's government refuses, saying they didn't do it. So A-H declares war. Could some think A-H is jumping in on the Japaneses' side if the Russo-Japanese war is still going when this happens? Would France come to the Russian's aid if it meant they'd have the British potentially whaling away at them?

Is Germany just abandoning Italy? They tried very hard to keep them and A-H from breaking up the Triplice iOTL.

I'm honestly unsure if France was more interested in maintaining one alliance over the other. I'm sure there's someone here with better understanding of the relationship between Entente memers iOTL. In fact, when did the British and French form their Entente?

I would also point out that the A-H government is going to be on complete disarray when the two are assassinated. The Empire very much relied on FJ to function. I suppose the burden is going to fall on the Minister-Presidents of Austria and Hungary.

Then again, I guess if von Hötzendorf is Chief of Staff by then, he'll definitely be the loudest voice to pre-emptively attack Italy regardless of common sense.

I still don't know how the R-J War can be expanded without Russia getting completely mauled.

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

Is Germany just abandoning Italy? They tried very hard to keep them and A-H from breaking up the Triplice iOTL.

I'm honestly unsure if France was more interested in maintaining one alliance over the other. I'm sure there's someone here with better understanding of the relationship between Entente memers iOTL. In fact, when did the British and French form their Entente?

I would also point out that the A-H government is going to be on complete disarray when the two are assassinated. The Empire very much relied on FJ to function. I suppose the burden is going to fall on the Minister-Presidents of Austria and Hungary.

Then again, I guess if von Hötzendorf is Chief of Staff by then, he'll definitely be the loudest voice to pre-emptively attack Italy regardless of common sense.

I still don't know how the R-J War can be expanded without Russia getting completely mauled.

Yeah just checking withe R-J War thing.

And yes, I plan for von Hoetzendorf to be Cheif of Staff by then.

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

And A-H will stubbornly refuse to back down.

 

[lukedalton]

The problem in a A-H vs Italy scenario is that Conrad and co. aim to a 'short and victorious' war to teach the italian a lesson, unfortunely Italy is a great power not a civil war ravaged small Serbia and while probably victorious the war will neither be short or cheap.
While not good as the austrian side, the italian border is still good enough for defense (and if italy is alone will maintain a defensive stance) and with Conrad in charge the K.u. K. is saddled with one of the worst commander of the war, probably on par of Cadorna (the good thing is that the italians had another Chief of Staff...ironically a personal friend of Conrad)

Germany will probably not give A-H a blank check in this case, a war between his allies or even an Italy that had just left the CP really doesn't serve any of her short, medium and long term interest and neither London and Paris will want a war that can expand without control at this stage.
In all probability the initial Austrian attack to Italy will be succesfull as OTL first invasion of Serbia

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

I'll just edit in a bold message declaring this non-canon if this doesn't go over well (e.g. if I can't just edit it).

Excerpt from Le Petit Parisien, February 11, 1908. This translation, 2004 National Archives from material on loan from Habsburg Federal Archives.

EMPEROR FRANZ JOSEPH AND ARCHDUKE FRANZ FERDINAND ASSASSINATED!
FIELD MARSHAL HOETZENDORF SAYS ITALIANS ARE TO BLAME!
​

Austrian Emperor Franz Joseph and his Nephew Archduke Franz Ferdinand were assassinated at a gathering of Balkan Leaders near Cetinje, Montenegro yesterday. Prince Nikola had called for the gathering to promote cooperation of the Balkan countries against Turkey. The center of attention up until then had been a heated discussion between King Theodore of Serbia and Prince Ferdinand of Bulgaria over the Captains' War. The Emperor was standing and watching the two men talking at each other; The Archduke was discussing the prospects of a planned division of Bosnia-Herzegovina with Prince Nikola when suddenly a shot rang through the air and a bullet entered into his skull. Moments later, a second shot hit Franz Joseph. The old emperor died later in the evening after succumbing to his injury.

The reaction from Vienna has been quite astonishing. It seems that Field Marshal Franz Conrad von Hoetzendorf has convinced the government and military of Austria-Hungary that The Italians are to blame. While Italian officials denied this, it seems that the Austrians are already mobilizing near the Italian border. Incidents have been reported but there has been no declaration of war by either side. This morning, the Austrians issued an ultimatum to Italy demanding the government turn over those responsible and denounce their criminal actions. German Kaiser Wilhelm II is desperately trying to ease tensions between the two, but has stated that they will remain neutral in any conflict between their two allies.

Meanwhile it seems that the coronation of Archduke Karl is being rushed, with it being scheduled to occur on the 13th. He has announced his intention for a peaceful resolution and is confident that even if the assassins are found to be Italian that they are merely rogue actors. He stated that he trusts the Italian Government had no part in the crimes committed. Let us all hope von Hoetzendorf does nothing foolish in the meantime.

 

[lukedalton]

Ehm, Conrad blaming the italians or the italian goverment is ok but issuing an ultimatum demanding Lombardy-Venetia back no; first they don't want it back as it mean another troublesome minority in the empire and second it's basically clear that it's blatant land grab and they can make a lesser effort and declare war immediately.

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

Ehm, Conrad blaming the italians or the italian goverment is ok but issuing an ultimatum demanding Lombardy-Venetia back no; first they don't want it back as it mean another troublesome minority in the empire and second it's basically clear that it's blatant land grab and they can make a lesser effort and declare war immediately.

I will edit and fix that.

 

[lukedalton]

I will edit and fix that.

It will probably something akin to OTL ultimatum at Serbia

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

It will probably something akin to OTL ultimatum at Serbia

Except Italy is at least borderline Great Power. Serbia was a midgrade power at best.

 

[lukedalton]

Except Italy is at least borderline Great Power. Serbia was a midgrade power at best.

A mix of people enraged (nobody really cares for FF, but FJ was another story), shocked (two at the same time is an hard pill) and the institutional chaos will mean that Conrad and co. will have a little more leeway if they play their cards well and a similar note can be send...with people realizing only after what's has been done; hey the man had a really hard one for a war against Italy (or Serbia) in OTL and this occasion is too much to not try to instigate one.
Personally i really doubt that will be the amazing success that he image and victory will be costly, but he will try.

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

Okay. I won't change what the article says concering the ultimatum since it is somewhat vague about and newspapers aren't always accurate in the first few days after an event.

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

Is it possible that the Italians see this (the ultimatum) and say 'screw it, they want a war, well give it' thinking that they at least have a fighting chance so they might as well? Or are the Italians smarter than that?

EDIT: fixed my grammar.

 

[lukedalton]

Is it possible that the Italians see this (the ultimatum) and say 'screw they want a war, well give it' thinking that they at least have a fighting chance so they might as well? Or are the Italians smarter than that?

The second, sorry not because i'm italian but because there was a clear understanding that alone Italy can't beat A-H so better stay on the defensive and maybe get some international sympathies and distance themselfs by the assassination accusation so better being the attacked party and convince France or/and UK to support them or at least Germany to remain neutral and at the time in charge there is Giovanni Giollitti one of the most important and influential (and intelligent) politician of the time (there is a reason if this in Italy is called the Giollitian era).

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

The second, sorry not because i'm italian but because there was a clear understanding that alone Italy can't beat A-H so better stay on the defensive and maybe get some international sympathies and distance themselfs by the assassination accusation so better being the attacked party and convince France or/and UK to support them or at least Germany to remain neutral and at the time in charge there is Giovanni Giollitti one of the most important and influential (and intelligent) politician of the time (there is a reason if this in Italy is called the Giollitian era).

Just checking out the options. Is Conrad patient enough that he'll wait for Karl to be crowned? Does Karl have to be crowned to have a say in the matter?

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

Did Anyone ask about the Spanish Flu yet? If WWI happens early (and by extension, ends earlier than OTL) I was wondering if that would butterfly the Spanish Flu as we know it. Just wondering.

 

[Magyarország]

Just checking out the options. Is Conrad patient enough that he'll wait for Karl to be crowned? Does Karl have to be crowned to have a say in the matter?

Karl and Conrad had a very poor relationship. The latter was sacked the moment a replacement was available.

When the war happens, A-H does have a couple of things on their side despite having Conrad leading them: There is no Potiorek leading armies and when they realise that invading Italy is not a walk in the park, they have the definitely superior defensive position. Still, this is the era of the Cult of the Offensive and A-H is on a revenge mission against Italy... they can only hope for a quick breakthrough to Venice to limit the effectiveness of Italy's defensive positions at the border, which is Home By Christmas type of overconfidence.

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

Karl and Conrad had a very poor relationship. The latter was sacked the moment a replacement was available.

When the war happens, A-H does have a couple of things on their side despite having Conrad leading them: There is no Potiorek leading armies and when they realise that invading Italy is not a walk in the park, they have the definitely superior defensive position. Still, this is the era of the Cult of the Offensive and A-H is on a revenge mission against Italy... they can only hope for a quick breakthrough to Venice to limit the effectiveness of Italy's defensive positions at the border, which is Home By Christmas type of overconfidence.

Who would be a good replacement for Conrad? Other than his OTL replacement, of course (just weighing my options before I go with Someone).

 

[lukedalton]

Did Anyone ask about the Spanish Flu yet? If WWI happens early (and by extension, ends earlier than OTL) I was wondering if that would butterfly the Spanish Flu as we know it. Just wondering.

Depend on what version of his origin you believe, many think it's started in the USA and was brought in Europe by their troops, others go for China and merchants marine.

Who would be a good replacement for Conrad? Other than his OTL replacement, of course (just weighing my options before I go with Someone).

For now nobody, till he fail and fail big and for long time he is untouchable as it was considered by far the most competent and brilliant officer for the role...OTL FF had to recall him as his substitute was even worse

Karl and Conrad had a very poor relationship. The latter was sacked the moment a replacement was available.

When the war happens, A-H does have a couple of things on their side despite having Conrad leading them: There is no Potiorek leading armies and when they realise that invading Italy is not a walk in the park, they have the definitely superior defensive position. Still, this is the era of the Cult of the Offensive and A-H is on a revenge mission against Italy... they can only hope for a quick breakthrough to Venice to limit the effectiveness of Italy's defensive positions at the border, which is Home By Christmas type of overconfidence.

I have a bad feeling about this; a Caporetto style breakthrough it's not on the card unless Italy roll always one and A-H always 20 and probably something more. OTL happened after more than two years of grueling battles and Cadorna management of troops and officers corps plus infiltration tecnique still not even in the mind of the various command staff.
Conrad move will probably be similar to the Strafferexpedition, an offensive through Trentino to encircle the italian army on the austrian border; OTL success greatly depended by the fact that was move many considered extremely idiot to do as the logistic of such offensive will be extremely weak and strained with even in case of success the austrian troops risk to find themselfs encircled and low on supply.

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

Depend on what version of his origin you believe, many think it's started in the USA and was brought in Europe by their troops, others go for China and merchants marine.



For now nobody, till he fail and fail big and for long time he is untouchable as it was considered by far the most competent and brilliant officer for the role...OTL FF had to recall him as his substitute was even worse



I have a bad feeling about this; a Caporetto style breakthrough it's not on the card unless Italy roll always one and A-H always 20 and probably something more. OTL happened after more than two years of grueling battles and Cadorna management of troops and officers corps plus infiltration tecnique still not even in the mind of the various command staff.
Conrad move will probably be similar to the Strafferexpedition, an offensive through Trentino to encircle the italian army on the austrian border; OTL success greatly depended by the fact that was move many considered extremely idiot to do as the logistic of such offensive will be extremely weak and strained with even in case of success the austrian troops risk to find themselfs encircled and low on supply.

1) I'll butterfly it then. Until Otto succeeds Karl, of course. Then it makes a belated appearance.

2) So Conrad does something extremely stupid and gets replaced as soon as possible.

3) It'll be a bloodbath when it starts. Was Saletta still Chief of staff in February? Either way Cadorna was offered the position when Saletta retired in 1908 (which will probably happen still), and Pollio may have been murdered in 1914 to make way for Cadorna IOTL due to being an Austrophile. Among Italians. In WWI. His wife was even Austrian. So could Conrad take advantage of this? I have my doubts about that.