Habsburg Resurgence: The Federal Empire Rises.

[J VonAxel]

With Serbia still in the A-H camp, Russia is out of the Balkan business for now.
They already burned their bridges with Bulgaria when they pulled out all their officers/advisers during the Serb-Bulgarian war in 1895. Reason it's called the captains war, Bulgaria didn't have any officers left above the rank of captain.
Romania has a big conflicting land claim with Russia(Moldova) making any alliance difficult. At this time the Ottomans or the Germans can offer them much more.
Greece is in the British camp, and any interference their will unleash a massive backlash. The Brits will see it as an attempt at both the Suez and the Bosporus.
Montenegro is just too small.
Albania doesn't exist.
Leaving the Russians alone against the Turks and that would just be Crimea all over. So for the moment the whole pan-Slavic movement best get shelved.

The Berlin-Baghdad railway lines will be easier to get through diplomatically at this time. Fewer small nations in the way and those that exist smaller or friendlier than OTL.

Regarding the diarchy, you should start with an appointed Imperial Chancellor alla Germany. Who steadily grows more democratic and powerful.

The biggest step forward on effective government is a bicameral parliament. A senate with part appointed nobles and part national representation(start with more nobles then senators and shift over time). I would think 4 senators for Austrians and Hungarians and 2 for the other nationalities Czechs, Slovaks, Croats, Bosnians, Bulgarians, Slovenians, Jews and Italians. (Did I forget any?)
And a lower house with proportional representation this would have to start with a limited vote-franchise. But don't forget to give the lower house the power of the purse.

Rince and repeat at lower levels of government.

Maybe have FF inherit early, so he can push through the changes.

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

With Serbia still in the A-H camp, Russia is out of the Balkan business for now.
They already burned their bridges with Bulgaria when they pulled out all their officers/advisers during the Serb-Bulgarian war in 1895. Reason it's called the captains war, Bulgaria didn't have any officers left above the rank of captain.
Romania has a big conflicting land claim with Russia(Moldova) making any alliance difficult. At this time the Ottomans or the Germans can offer them much more.
Greece is in the British camp, and any interference their will unleash a massive backlash. The Brits will see it as an attempt at both the Suez and the Bosporus.
Montenegro is just too small.
Albania doesn't exist.
Leaving the Russians alone against the Turks and that would just be Crimea all over. So for the moment the whole pan-Slavic movement best get shelved.

The Berlin-Baghdad railway lines will be easier to get through diplomatically at this time. Fewer small nations in the way and those that exist smaller or friendlier than OTL.

Regarding the diarchy, you should start with an appointed Imperial Chancellor alla Germany. Who steadily grows more democratic and powerful.

The biggest step forward on effective government is a bicameral parliament. A senate with part appointed nobles and part national representation(start with more nobles then senators and shift over time). I would think 4 senators for Austrians and Hungarians and 2 for the other nationalities Czechs, Slovaks, Croats, Bosnians, Bulgarians, Slovenians, Jews and Italians. (Did I forget any?)
And a lower house with proportional representation this would have to start with a limited vote-franchise. But don't forget to give the lower house the power of the purse.

Rince and repeat at lower levels of government.

Maybe have FF inherit early, so he can push through the changes.

Well we'll see who lives long enough to inherit. Someone might just do something extremely stupid.

Well for the Legislative it could be the the Senate (upper) and the National Assembly (lower). The Kaiser can found (or join) and head political parties if he/she so desires.

I like the Chancellor idea. In what fashion should he be elected? PMOUK or POTUS? This'll probably occur after WWI and involve some heavy anti-British sentiment so they might try to avoid appearing to much like Westminster.

So Bulgaria probably won't do anything too stupid and A-H will know that. Hmm....

The Chancellor would probably be the judge nominator for the supreme court (similar to POTUS). But the Kaiser is the CaC.

 

[J VonAxel]

Like I said at first you would have the Chancellor appointed by the Kaiser, later this would morph into the leader of the largest party in the NA. Maybe with the official rule being that the Kaiser still appoints the Chancellor, but in reality it is always the majority leader. I would throw in a safety valve that the Kaiser can still veto the Chancellor but only at the cost of a major political crisis and/or abdication(like in the Netherlands or Belgium).

I would not go with a directly elected Chancellor or other kind of head of government.
You can see for yourself what happens if the HoG is not in sync with congress in the current and near past USA. And with the Kaiser already the Head of the Armed forces as well as taking on the ceremonial functions, there is really no need. This is also the standard method for constitutional monarchies, in fact I don't recall any CM's where the is not a PMoUK/Chancellor of Germany kind of setup.

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

Well. Here's some international reaction that semi-promised.

Excerpt from The Inevitable: Politics in the lead up to WWI

Serbian War: Reaction
​

While the Austrian and Serbian reaction to the war was relatively mixed, the reactions of the other great powers varied greatly:

Russia was absolutely livid. They had last two potential allies, Serbia had gone firmly into Austria-Hungary's camp. Bulgaria would stay neutral, and would probably wait to declare independence until the Great Powers were distracted.

This completely set the Russians back in the Balkan Peninsula. All the countries there were one of three things; Neutral, Allied to Austria-Hungary, or Austria-Hungary itself! Russia set about building a covert team to infiltrate the Balkan countries and do whatever was necessary to curb Austro-Hungarian expansion.


Nippon took advantage of Russia's distraction to plan something big...

Italy was less than impressed with the Austrian actions, but believed (to an extent) their claims that it was all just a 'happy accident'. They made plans for war on Austria-Hungary though, just in case.

France was somewhat annoyed. They made a few attempts at allying with Greece and Bulgaria, only to find that Austria-Hungary had begun beating them to the punch in the latter, having guaranteed it's support should Bulgaria declare independence. Greece opted to remain neutral.

Deutschland expressed positivity to the idea that an ally was asserting itself.

Britain was glad Russia had been effectively kicked out of the Balkans, but was mildly worried about Austria-Hungary's mild revitalization.

America was neutral on the matter. On one hand Austria-Hungary had effectively expanded into the Balkan Peninsula. On the other hand, they had stopped Russian expansion and secured an ally, possibly reducing the powderkeg potential of Balkan countries. But perhaps not...

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

Like I said at first you would have the Chancellor appointed by the Kaiser, later this would morph into the leader of the largest party in the NA. Maybe with the official rule being that the Kaiser still appoints the Chancellor, but in reality it is always the majority leader. I would throw in a safety valve that the Kaiser can still veto the Chancellor but only at the cost of a major political crisis and/or abdication(like in the Netherlands or Belgium).

I would not go with a directly elected Chancellor or other kind of head of government.
You can see for yourself what happens if the HoG is not in sync with congress in the current and near past USA. And with the Kaiser already the Head of the Armed forces as well as taking on the ceremonial functions, there is really no need. This is also the standard method for constitutional monarchies, in fact I don't recall any CM's where the is not a PMoUK/Chancellor of Germany kind of setup.

I see. Just floating around some ideas, that all. I might have the Austrian monarch retain more power than the UK, though. Just so there aren't a bunch of UK clones everywhere.

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

Here's a map:

Not sure if Lombardy was still part of Austria in 1903, but I couldn't find any other map without B-H.

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

I found it on Bing images.

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

Found a better one I think:

Also Found on bing image search.

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

Except Turkey is too big.

 

[J VonAxel]

this is the A-H official 1905 map

 

[Magyarország]

Maybe have FF inherit early, so he can push through the changes.

Hah, that's laughable. FF was more absolutist than FJ ever was. He might even be an obstacle to democratisation and federalism.

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

this is the A-H official 1905 map

Thank you. Don't know why I couldn't find that.

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

Hah, that's laughable. FF was more absolutist than FJ ever was. He might even be an obstacle to democratisation and federalism.

That's why I still plan for him to die. That and I didn't factor him living into my plans.

 

[lukedalton]

Not sure if Lombardy was still part of Austria in 1903, but I couldn't find any other map without B-H.

Ehm Lombardy was acquired by the Kingdom of Italy in 1859 due to the 2nd war of independence and Veneto in 1866 due to the third; the austrian intervention in Serbia and the influence that will get there will prompt Italy to demand some compensation due to art.7 of the CP treaty.
Wien reaction will be the usual...nothing happened, nothing is changed, you will not receive anything, putting more stress on the alliance

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

Ehm Lombardy was acquired by the Kingdom of Italy in 1859 due to the 2nd war of independence and Veneto in 1866 due to the third; the austrian intervention in Serbia and the influence that will get there will prompt Italy to demand some compensation due to art.7 of the CP treaty.
Wien reaction will be the usual...nothing happened, nothing is changed, you will not receive anything, putting more stress on the alliance

Thank you for the feed back! Did you see this:

Italy was less than impressed with the Austrian actions, but believed (to an extent) their claims that it was all just a 'happy accident'. They made plans for war on Austria-Hungary though, just in case.

I intended to indicate that Italy was making plans to attack at a moments' notice. I said less than impressed because they are used to being snubbed (or worse) by Austria, so they didn't share Russia's reaction. They also decided to do something that might get on A-H's nerves a bit...

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

I'm gonna do another Newspaper update soon. What do you all think I should focus on?

Here are some things I wanted to run by you all, some mutually exclusive:

Russo-Japanese war leads to earlier WWI. Probably not plausible unless FJ and Co stubbornly refuse to back off after some incident. Of course, it wouldn't be FJ and Co if the incident I have in mind happens. It might be Otto I and Co. But why would someone murder FJ and FF? Italy does it and then blames Russia perhaps? All you need there is for A-H to believe it. The Italians are a bit more miffed than they're letting on.

Earlier Italo-Turkish and Balkan Wars from 1908-1911 (mutually exclusive with option 1). There are two variations of this one. Version A is similar to OTL, just without the second war due to A-H being dragged via friendship treaty. Version B gets a bit more complicated. Basically, the Balkan League jumps the gun and goes to war with Turkey before it looks like the war in Libya is done and over with. Russia mistakes this for a CP mobilization against Turkey and Declares war on the entire CP.

FJ and FF are assassinated Sometime between late 1903 and 1911. How do you all feel about an Otto I reign before Karl takes charge? He's going to die on schedule regardless.

The Great War begins in 1911 (mutually exclusive with option 1). I'll probably combine this with options 2a and 3, with the Italy framing Russia after assassinating FJ and FF.

What do you all think?

 

[Magyarország]

About FJ, FF and Otto:

I decided to read up on Otto since I knew he was of poor health and was curioud about what killed him iOTL. Turns out, FF had tuberculosis and it was thought that he would die before FJ or renounce his rights to the throne, and Otto contracted syphilis in around 1900. Apparently, his last two years were spent in Egypt under severe pain, so I don't think he'd become Emperor if both FJ and FF are dead by 1904. He also had poor reptation at court (just like FF ironically). If Otto does become Emperor, then he would definitely work on preparing Karl the moment the Imperial and Royal crowns have sat on his head knowing the Empire would have to deal with 3 Emperors in short succession. Definitely a good thing in the long-ish term, though.

Why would someone murder FJ or FF? Well, the anarchist that killed FJ's beloved wife didn't need much of a reason. Are they murdered at the same time? That'd be difficult since the two had a notoriously awful relationship and I don't think they were ever out in public together. It also doesn't help that while FF has plenty of domestic enemies, not so much FJ, so it would have to be a foreign-sponsored thing like FF iOTL. Maybe Russian or Italian-sponsored remnants of the Black Hand? Maybe both somehow?

I feel like the Russo-Japanese War option would make it really one-sided towards the Central Powers. After all, Japan is allied with the UK and with Japan a co-beligerent against Russia, who has to fight a two-front war (with one front being a logistical nightmare) and can't send their navy to fight an island nation...

About the Balkan War... the Balkan League seems rather pro-CP (if not pro-A-H, even!), so would A-H even participate? Their influence in the region is clearly not under threat. That is, unless (until?) the league falls apart from infighting over the spoils and Italy tries to snatch Albania (unacceptable for Austria since it would close off the Adriatic). Definitely makes an interesting and appropriately-confusing start to a world-war.

 

[J VonAxel]

At this time Italy is the more likely opponent, Russia doesn't have a real conflict with A-H yet. The couple of Polish farms are just not enough to get worked up about and the Pan-Slavic movement is still aimed at the Ottomans at the moment. No poor slavic cousins being oppressed by the Austrians and no little Serbia falsely accused and invaded.

So no one is going to believe that suddenly out of the blue the Tsar decided to whack FF & FJ. And I don't think anyone would be able to pull off a double assassination and then somehow get the blame shifted to a third party. If Italy where to try something like this the most likely outcome would be that both A-H and Russia would pile up on Italy.

I can however see a scenario where some Italian nationalist assassinates FF & FJ at some official gathering. (as already stated they would not be in the same room unless mandated by duty) Which would kick off the 4th war of Italian unification but this time with worse results for the Italians. As there is no distraction for the A-H at the moment they can focus all their troops on the Italian front.

Regarding the Balkan League v the Ottomans, I don't think that is likely. Both Serbia and Bulgaria are still smarting from their war a decade ago. Romania is still working out the kinks in their newly united country, and Greece doesn't have the navy yet to keep out the Ottoman reinforcements or even invasions of Greece proper. They needed the next 7 years to get their house and armies in order.

 

[lukedalton]

I'm gonna do another Newspaper update soon. What do you all think I should focus on?

Here are some things I wanted to run by you all, some mutually exclusive:

Russo-Japanese war leads to earlier WWI. Probably not plausible unless FJ and Co stubbornly refuse to back off after some incident. Of course, it wouldn't be FJ and Co if the incident I have in mind happens. It might be Otto I and Co. But why would someone murder FJ and FF? Italy does it and then blames Russia perhaps? All you need there is for A-H to believe it. The Italians are a bit more miffed than they're letting on.

Earlier Italo-Turkish and Balkan Wars from 1908-1911 (mutually exclusive with option 1). There are two variations of this one. Version A is similar to OTL, just without the second war due to A-H being dragged via friendship treaty. Version B gets a bit more complicated. Basically, the Balkan League jumps the gun and goes to war with Turkey before it looks like the war in Libya is done and over with. Russia mistakes this for a CP mobilization against Turkey and Declares war on the entire CP.

FJ and FF are assassinated Sometime between late 1903 and 1911. How do you all feel about an Otto I reign before Karl takes charge? He's going to die on schedule regardless.

The Great War begins in 1911 (mutually exclusive with option 1). I'll probably combine this with options 2a and 3, with the Italy framing Russia after assassinating FJ and FF.

What do you all think?

An earlier Italo-Ottoman war is difficult; it's not that people in Rome wake up a random morning and decided to invade Libya, before there was a big diplomatic work to obtain the agreement of various power. Take on example the position of Italy during the first Moroccan crisis, in exchange it get the ok from France.
If you imply that the italians will finance and support an assasination attempt on the Hapsburg royals, stop there, it will not happen; nobody want a war against A-H...at least without allies and only in a time of our choosing as everybody knows that one on one Italy will be very hard pressed, plus it's not really the style of work of any Great Powers as it bring too much troubles.
If you want an italian move that will irritate A-H, it will be trying to gain more influcence in Montenegro and Albania; Wien will try to stop it and Berlin will try to mediate between the two, probably proposing a division of the two (thing that Wien will refuse as it had always possesed a 'demand everything and give up nothing' attitude towards Italy as their interest in the zone more or less are the same, plus there is the question of the 'irredente'). Another move will be to prop up the fortifications at the Austrian border, both just in case (FF was a notorious anti-italian and Conrad even more).
In any case, no compensation mean that the alliance is deader than death almost 10 years earlier than OTL, this is not like the Bosnian crisis were some little legal justification at least existed (more or less on par 6 years later with Italy remaining neutral), here there are been an invasion and a big extension of Wien influence; people in Rome will neither believe that's has been an 'happy accident' or even care; and this during a period that Italy had the most pro-cp, pro-german goverments ever; even keeping the various nationalist group in check and censor them.
You want a war with Italy? Just let loose Conrad, without FF to rein him, there is not even need of an excuse...he will probably thing that italians had killed the two even if the assassin was wrapped in the Russian flag, speak Russian, called itself IVan and prey to the Tsar

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

Thanks for the feedback! I'm glad I ran all that by you.

How does this sound:

Italian nationalists assassanate FJ while remnants of the Black Hand aim at FF. It doesn't have to be at the same time (e.g. the anarchists get to FF before the Italians get to FJ). A-H blames Italy for it and delivers an them an ultimatum. Italy's government refuses, saying they didn't do it. So A-H declares war. Could some think A-H is jumping in on the Japaneses' side if the Russo-Japanese war is still going when this happens? Would France come to the Russian's aid if it meant they'd have the British potentially whaling away at them?