Habsburg England instead of Habsburg Spain

You've just created a decades to centuries long Franco-Prussian alliance. You've doomed central and western europe. are you happy now?
:)
What Prussia? In 16th century?


Speaking about really useful allies for 16th century France-Ottomans and Zapolya, maybe Jagiellons too (weaker Habsburgs and lack of Pavia could encourage Sigismund to fully support his brother-in-law or to claim Bohemia for himself) I wonder how situation in Hungary develop? Seems that Zapolya should be more successful.
 
@alexmilman What do you think happens with Portugal and Scotland? Scotland is in a very perilous position being cut off from their most important ally, unless they sail around Ireland to reach France, and in those days, any sea voyage is fraught with it's own perils without having to worry about running into English, Dutch, and Burgundian raiders.

As for Portugal, I have to imagine their English alliance (now with 60% more Habsburg!) is still a main part of their foreign policy, right after trying not to get gobbled up by Castile and Aragon and maintaining their lucrative trade routes, but with a focused Spain that doesn't have to support Habsburg wars across the continent, Portugal has even more pressure on them with an archenemy that may soon become utterly flushed with American gold and silver.

It would also be in Spain's interests to not get too caught up in too many northern affairs. Asides from Portugal, there doesn't seem to be anywhere else in Western Europe that Fernando and Isabel would want to or need to expand into. What they could do is make every effort to turn the bulk of the Western Mediterranean into a Spanish lake apart from whatever France and the northern Italian states control.

Scotland has a serious problem though. I feel like they will try to re-cultivate ancient ties to Scandinavia and ally themselves with Denmark, while hoping the Auld Alliance can retain it's teeth.

Portugal will be part of ATL Spain (who will be ruled by the House of Avis) as all three most realistic way for preventing the Habsburg takeover would bring an union between Castile, Aragon and Portugal
a) the posthumous daughter of Juan, prince of Asturias survive. She will be married to a Portuguese’s cousin (either a surviving Miguel or João III)
b) Miguel da Paz, only child of Isabella, Princess of Asturias and Girona and Queen of Portugal survive. The boy is the heir of Castile and Aragon as his mother was the eldest daughter of Ferdinand and Isabella and at the same time is also the heir of Portugal as he is the fistborn son of Manuel I of Portugal
c) Instead of marrying Isabella (who either died or had taken vows after the death of her first husband) first and then Maria, Manuel married directly Juana.


Scotland likely will keep alive as much is possible the Auld Alliance, alternating weddings with France and England as is most convenient for them.
Why you talk about Dutch raiders? They would NEVER exist in the scenario about we are talking...
By the way Elizabeth of York is too old for marrying Philip of Austria-Burgundy (who was once engaged to her younger sister Anne)...
 
Portugal will be part of ATL Spain (who will be ruled by the House of Avis) as all three most realistic way for preventing the Habsburg takeover would bring an union between Castile, Aragon and Portugal
a) the posthumous daughter of Juan, prince of Asturias survive. She will be married to a Portuguese’s cousin (either a surviving Miguel or João III)
b) Miguel da Paz, only child of Isabella, Princess of Asturias and Girona and Queen of Portugal survive. The boy is the heir of Castile and Aragon as his mother was the eldest daughter of Ferdinand and Isabella and at the same time is also the heir of Portugal as he is the fistborn son of Manuel I of Portugal
c) Instead of marrying Isabella (who either died or had taken vows after the death of her first husband) first and then Maria, Manuel married directly Juana.

That sounds like Torvald's unified Spain TL.

By the way Elizabeth of York is too old for marrying Philip of Austria-Burgundy (who was once engaged to her younger sister Anne)...
She would actually be about the same difference from Philip in age as Eleanor of Aquitaine and King Henry II, and that didn't seem to stop them from making a politically advantageous marriage. Though with that said, I do acknowledge that if Maximilian happened to not be married when she came on the market, he would try and take her for himself. Otherwise, I have no doubt that were he still married, a marriage to Elizabeth of York, the future Queen of England is a marriage he would eagerly pursue for his son and heir.
 
That sounds like Torvald's unified Spain TL.
That is simply the most viable alternative to Habsburg Spain, at least without messing with Ferdinand and Isabella’s children

She would actually be about the same difference from Philip in age as Eleanor of Aquitaine and King Henry II, and that didn't seem to stop them from making a politically advantageous marriage. Though with that said, I do acknowledge that if Maximilian happened to not be married when she came on the market, he would try and take her for himself. Otherwise, I have no doubt that were he still married, a marriage to Elizabeth of York, the future Queen of England is a marriage he would eagerly pursue for his son and heir.
That was another time, and Elizabeth and England are simply not worth the risk in a situation in which Philip is the only son of Maximilian (and also his only son by Mary of Burgundy). A younger wife had much more chances to give Philip’s the needed heirs...
Plus if their father live is likely who both Elizabeth and Cecily will be married before the deaths of both their brothers. Plus from Edward IV’s point of view would much better marrying Elizabeth to his brother Richard (who would be widowed by Anne Neville now) if look who his sons would die shortly.
Without the OTL circumstances and with Edward pushing for it the English parliament and nobility would accept such match (who would prevent a new likely civil war) without trouble
 
Felipe II has a son with Mary I of England ("Philip", 1556-1619). Felipe's eldest son Carlos lives longer (1545-*1588) and begets a daughter ("Maria", 1567-1620) and a son ("Pedro", 1570-1632).

Mary I dies in 1561. There is a Spanish-dominated regency in England for Philip until 1564, when the Spanish are expelled after a palace coup in favor of an English regency led by Philip's aunt Elizabeth. Regent Elizabeth also renews her father's breach with the Catholic Church, and young Philip is raised as a Protestant. He marries "Margaret Stuart" (1566-1631), only daughter of Mary Queen of Scots, also raised Protestant, and founds the House of Habsburg in England and then Scotland by fathering four sons and three daughters.

Felipe would Do Something about this, but illness and ongoing quarrels with his heir Carlos interfere. Then Felipe dies in 1567, and Carlos isn't interested. "Maria" marries Ranuccio Farnese (eldest son of the great Duke of Parma, 1569-*1618). They have a son "Juan" (1593-1629). "Pedro" succeeds Carlos in 1588, and has a daughter "Ysabel" (1594-1641) and a son "Fernando" (1606-1621). "Ysabel" marries "Juan Farnese"; they have a son, "Felipe" (1616-1681). When "Fernando" predeceases his father, "Pedro" names "Felipe Farnese" as his heir. "Felipe III" succeeds in 1632, replacing the House of Habsburg with the House of Farnese.
 
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:)
What Prussia? In 16th century?


Speaking about really useful allies for 16th century France-Ottomans and Zapolya, maybe Jagiellons too (weaker Habsburgs and lack of Pavia could encourage Sigismund to fully support his brother-in-law or to claim Bohemia for himself) I wonder how situation in Hungary develop? Seems that Zapolya should be more successful.
Right. Here the OTL rise of Prussia is almost ASB...
Well Jan everything depend by how we arrive to this Habsburg England-Burgundy, Habsburg Empire and not-Habsburg Spain.

In my opinion the smarter way for doing it is:

a) Maximilian has children (at least a son and a daughter by Bianca Maria) but is not really needed (as we have another way for having the same outcome)

b) Isabella Juana (aka Juan and Margaret’s daughter) and/or Miguel da Paz (Manuel and Isabella’s son) survive. Either would be enough but is better if both survive as their wedding would be the most logical thing to do (and we would have the least butterflies)

c) Karl, Duke of Burgundy married an ATL daughter of Catherine of Aragon, who is her only living child and the heiress of England (we have three ways for it: a posthumous daughter by Arthur; the only surviving child she had by a longer living Arthur; a daughter by Henry born early from their wedding, who without the Spanish takeover by Philip, will happen in 1505).

Poland here will be most likely allied with Austria as he will most likely marry Maximilian and Bianca’s daughter instead of Barbara Zapolya.

Take out Ernest and Eleanor (ATL children of Maximilian and Bianca) and you can have the same results with the OTL children of Philip and Juana
1) Eleanor, Queen of Poland as second wife of Sigismund I (no need for a match with either England or Portugal)
2) Karl V, Holy Roman Emperor, Duke of Burgundy and King of England jure uxoris (married to his cousin Elizabeth Tudor, daughter and heiress of Henry VIII of England and named after both her grandmothers)
3) Isabella, likely still Queen of Denmark
4) Maximilian, Archduke of Austria and husband of Anne of Hungary and Bohemia
5) Mary, Queen of Hungary as wife of Louis II
6) Catherine

Karl will not like much the need to marry two sisters to the Jagiellons and to renounce to his share of Austria in favor of Maximilian but is still better than marrying Anna himself (plus Austria will be only a bother for him as part of Burgundy is in the Holy Roman Empire and so his branch can still be the Imperial one and England fully replace it)
 
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That is simply the most viable alternative to Habsburg Spain, at least without messing with Ferdinand and Isabella’s children


That was another time, and Elizabeth and England are simply not worth the risk in a situation in which Philip is the only son of Maximilian (and also his only son by Mary of Burgundy). A younger wife had much more chances to give Philip’s the needed heirs...
Plus if their father live is likely who both Elizabeth and Cecily will be married before the deaths of both their brothers. Plus from Edward IV’s point of view would much better marrying Elizabeth to his brother Richard (who would be widowed by Anne Neville now) if look who his sons would die shortly.
Without the OTL circumstances and with Edward pushing for it the English parliament and nobility would accept such match (who would prevent a new likely civil war) without trouble
Right, see, I was trying to avoid coming up with a scenario that was too similar to an existing TL that I'm actually following and enjoying. Takes the fun out of all this for me.

Also, these wide age discrepancy marriages between an older woman and younger man kept happening throughout the medieval period and into the early modern period. Elizabeth is a Queen Regnant in waiting, even if she is years older, that's still a Queen Regnant. You pull the trigger if it falls in your lap. Even Charles V had to give it a shot when he married his son to Mary, and she was much older than Elizabeth or Eleanor comparatively. The times weren't all that different. However, I conceded earlier that if Maximilian was a widower again and hadn't married Anne of Brittany when he did, than he would be running to try and wed Elizabeth himself.
 
Portugal will be part of ATL Spain (who will be ruled by the House of Avis) as all three most realistic way for preventing the Habsburg takeover would bring an union between Castile, Aragon and Portugal
a) the posthumous daughter of Juan, prince of Asturias survive. She will be married to a Portuguese’s cousin (either a surviving Miguel or João III)
b) Miguel da Paz, only child of Isabella, Princess of Asturias and Girona and Queen of Portugal survive. The boy is the heir of Castile and Aragon as his mother was the eldest daughter of Ferdinand and Isabella and at the same time is also the heir of Portugal as he is the fistborn son of Manuel I of Portugal
c) Instead of marrying Isabella (who either died or had taken vows after the death of her first husband) first and then Maria, Manuel married directly Juana.
You forgot the variant d) which is the most plausible than the three first, depending on a single horse accident not happening. First husband of Isabella survives, Isabella does not ruin her health by mourning and produces child/ren/ more healthy and likely to survive than OTL Miguel.
 
Right, see, I was trying to avoid coming up with a scenario that was too similar to an existing TL that I'm actually following and enjoying. Takes the fun out of all this for me.

Also, these wide age discrepancy marriages between an older woman and younger man kept happening throughout the medieval period and into the early modern period. Elizabeth is a Queen Regnant in waiting, even if she is years older, that's still a Queen Regnant. You pull the trigger if it falls in your lap. Even Charles V had to give it a shot when he married his son to Mary, and she was much older than Elizabeth or Eleanor comparatively. The times weren't all that different. However, I conceded earlier that if Maximilian was a widower again and hadn't married Anne of Brittany when he did, than he would be running to try and wed Elizabeth himself.
But Philip had already an heir and in the worst case Karl’s eldest daughter Maria who was married to her Austrian cousin Maximilian had more than enough sons for preserving the dynasty...
Same for Geoffrey of Anjou and Henry II of England: both had younger brothers when they married older women. Excluding his father here Philip is the last Habsburg male and the only one with Burgundian blood so he need to marry carefully for preventing the extinction of the dynasty...

Plus if Elizabeth is already the heiress of her father before marrying, political reasons would put her uncle Richard at the top of the list of candidates. If she married while her brother are still alive then Maximilian (not Philip who is already engaged to her sister Anne) would be a very good match.

And Ivan unless you follow exactly the same POD the scenario will be inevitably much different: having Isabella Juana born alive and surviving and married to a cousin from Portugal is different than Torbald’s POD (same if you have a surviving Miguel married to Madeleine of Navarre, Eleanor of Austria or Mary Tudor the elder)....


You forgot the variant d) which is the most plausible than the three first, depending on a single horse accident not happening. First husband of Isabella survives, Isabella does not ruin her health by mourning and produces child/ren/ more healthy and likely to survive than OTL Miguel.

Valena I simply consider Alfonso of Portugal as a dead man walking unless he do not marry Isabella of Aragon and Castile (his death was too much convenient for Ferdinand and I think he had likely arranged it)...
[Same story for Francis Phoebus of Navarre from the moment in which he thinked to marry Juana la Belraneja and remember who Ferdinand's half brother Chales of Viana was poisoned by either Ferdinand's mother or half-sister (who likely poisoned her other sister) and he was likely to follow this examples for securing his crown and inheritance]
 
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But Philip had already an heir and in the worst case Karl’s eldest daughter Maria who was married to her Austrian cousin Maximilian had more than enough sons for preserving the dynasty...
Same for Geoffrey of Anjou and Henry II of England: both had younger brothers when they married younger women. Excluding his father here Philip is the last Habsburg male and the only one with Burgundian blood so he need to marry carefully for preventing the extinction of the dynasty...

Plus if Elizabeth is already the heiress of her father before marrying, political reasons would put her uncle Richard at the top of the list of candidates. If she married while her brother are still alive then Maximilian (not Philip who is already engaged to her sister Anne) would be a very good match.

And Ivan unless you follow exactly the same POD the scenario will be inevitably much different: having Isabella Juana born alive and surviving and married to a cousin from Portugal is different than Torbald’s POD (same if you have a surviving Miguel married to Madeleine of Navarre, Eleanor of Austria or Mary Tudor the elder)....




Valena I simply consider Alfonso of Portugal as a dead man walking unless he do not marry Isabella of Aragon and Castile (his death was too much convenient for Ferdinand and I think he had likely arranged it)...
Alfonso can marry Anne of York the younger instead, while Kate of York marries Philip.
 
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