Habsburg Empire collapses in 1867

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Deleted member 1487

What if instead of the Ausgleich the Hungarians and other nationalities opted for independence instead and broke up the Habsburg Empire? How would the dissolution have shaken out and what would happen as a result of the fracture?
 
Croatia almost certainly wouldn't go, and Transylvania is going to become Hungary's worst nightmare when the Kingdom of Romania forms.

In a way, the Austrian Empire had a better chance of reform without having to deal with Hungary. Austria would be forced to look westward, which would improve relations with Russia and would have an easier time reforming the army, which would have changed so much. A smaller but tougher Austria is much better placed to be on the winning side in whatever war the butterflies replace WWI with.
 

Deleted member 1487

Croatia almost certainly wouldn't go, and Transylvania is going to become Hungary's worst nightmare when the Kingdom of Romania forms.

In a way, the Austrian Empire had a better chance of reform without having to deal with Hungary. Austria would be forced to look westward, which would improve relations with Russia and would have an easier time reforming the army, which would have changed so much. A smaller but tougher Austria is much better placed to be on the winning side in whatever war the butterflies replace WWI with.
Do you think the Habsburgs would mismanage smaller Austria on their own?
 
The Austrians were certainly good at mismanagement. Part of the reason why I think a smaller Austria is a more efficient Austria is because it gives them fewer opportunities to screw things up.
 

Deleted member 1487

The Austrians were certainly good at mismanagement. Part of the reason why I think a smaller Austria is a more efficient Austria is because it gives them fewer opportunities to screw things up.
Or just concentrate their incompetence...
 
What if instead of the Ausgleich the Hungarians and other nationalities opted for independence instead and broke up the Habsburg Empire? How would the dissolution have shaken out and what would happen as a result of the fracture?
A TL dedicated about that, Hungary and Croatia become independent, Galicia is partitioned, Bohemia-Moravia goes under another Hapsburg and join the North German Federation and after a Franco/Italian-Prussian war Austria(and B-M) join the new born German empire.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/austria-inside-a-greater-german-empire-tl.339580/
 
A TL dedicated about that, Hungary and Croatia become independent, Galicia is partitioned, Bohemia-Moravia goes under another Hapsburg and join the North German Federation and after a Franco/Italian-Prussian war Austria(and B-M) join the new born German empire.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/austria-inside-a-greater-german-empire-tl.339580/

If Austria-Bohemia-Moravia went for a grand german solution, the one that was considered before Prussia was able to impose the small german solution, then there will not be the Prussia-led Germany as emerged OTL and it will more probably remain a German Confederation than become a German Empire.
 
If Austria-Bohemia-Moravia went for a grand german solution, the one that was considered before Prussia was able to impose the small german solution, then there will not be the Prussia-led Germany as emerged OTL and it will more probably remain a German Confederation than become a German Empire.
It would be more decentralized but it would not stay as decentralized as the German Confederation was if Prussia was able to impose it trough war. Probably there would be no internal war anymore and Austria would get the same deal Bavaria got.
 
What if instead of the Ausgleich the Hungarians and other nationalities opted for independence instead and broke up the Habsburg Empire? How would the dissolution have shaken out and what would happen as a result of the fracture?

Potentially, a lot of annexations and creation of proxies of various kinds, ranging from allied protege states to outright puppet states. As mixed as the populations of many of the Empire's various states and provinces were, and given how many international borders or potential neighbors there were, if Hungary broke off successfully in the 1860s, then the fragmentation is unlikely to stop there. Plenty of potential "endangered Germans" (or fill in the blank with Russians or Italians or whomever) to provide a pretext for intervention.

Prussia/Germany, Russia, Italy, Greece, Serbia are all potential claimants, as would be Romania, as mentioned above, along with independence and irredentist movements of various stripes ... There would be a scramble that is as likely to lead to a wider multi-national conflict as it would be to lead to any sort of stable resolution.

A "scramble" except with army corps, rather than gunboats and colonial expeditions, could very well lead to a wider European war, in the same way a "scramble" for the Turkish Empire would have - except this one is in the heart of Central Europe.
 
What if instead of the Ausgleich the Hungarians and other nationalities opted for independence instead and broke up the Habsburg Empire? How would the dissolution have shaken out and what would happen as a result of the fracture?

It could only happen if the Austrian armies were totally destroyed. Hungary didn't have an army of its own, and even after Koniggratz the remaining Austrian forces could have stomped a revolt - though in order to do so Austria might have to buy a hasty peace, perhaps by ceding Bohemia to Prussia and Trentino to Italy.
 
If the Hungarians try independence, then the various minorities are going to try jumping ship. Plus perhaps you get revolts by the Magyar against the aristocracy as they see themselves being turned right back into serfs. And the Germans around Budapest aren't going to be happy to go without a fight. As if they would have a choice.
 
It could only happen if the Austrian armies were totally destroyed. Hungary didn't have an army of its own, and even after Koniggratz the remaining Austrian forces could have stomped a revolt - though in order to do so Austria might have to buy a hasty peace, perhaps by ceding Bohemia to Prussia and Trentino to Italy.
Ceding an entire kingdom? They might offer some of Galicia to the Russians if things get dire, but I doubt they would give their oldest and most valuable possesses ions to their enemy.
 
Ceding an entire kingdom? They might offer some of Galicia to the Russians if things get dire, but I doubt they would give their oldest and most valuable possesses ions to their enemy.


Would Russia want Galicia? It would mean taking in thousands of Poles and Jews, neither of whom would be welcome.

Re Bohemia, I had in mind that in the aftermath of Koniggratz it was under Prussian occupation, so if Austria were on the ropes against a Hungarian rising, the Prussians might decide to keep it.
 
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Would Russia want Galicia? It would mean taking in thousands of Poles and Jews, neither of whom would be welcome.

Re Bohemia, I had in mind that in the aftermath of Koniggratz it ws under Prussian occupation, so if Austria were on the ropes against a Hungarian rising, the Prussians might decide to keep it.
I was thinking only a portion, probably the eastern half that had Ruthenians. Might be they just start the League of Three Emperors a bit early, since this would set a bad precedent. And the Russians might want all of it, who knows. They had progressively gained almost all the land from Poland-Lithuania, so it would just be clearing up loose ends. Might be they get a deal about the Balkans instead.
 

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Well, if we firmly believe the Habsburgs and all their followers were 100% idiots then this ATL will of course go at least as bad as OTL and we will spend a good part of our life filtering out the "evidence" pointing to this - just a question of looking (and overlooking) enough. If we OTOH believe the Habsburgs are nothing short of divine representation here on Earth then any PoD will of course mean the Habsburgs ruling the Universe before Easter!

I think Easter is a bit optimistic ;), but as I have before stated that I consider Hungary the biggest problem of the Habsburgs then getting rid of Hungary of course ought to give some opportunities. "Going federal" was on the agenda in late 19th/early 20th century Austria-Hungary, but had no chance with the Hungarians stubbornly blocking anything touching their special role and alongside taking well care of limiting the power of the Kaiser and the army. We of course can't know if such an opportunity would have been utilised but a very big obstacle certainly would have been removed.

Another potential would however have been added and that is of course the loss of prestige involved in loosing a major part of the Empire. In this context I think the future personal role of the Kaisers would be reduced and would be indispensable if some kind of federal constitution is the result of the separation.

The economical core areas of the Empire, Austria and Bohemia, will still be inside the Empire and I guess we will still see the OTL growth in industrialisation - in OTL only second to that in Russia.

As others have already stated life will not necessarily be easy for the new independent Hungary and would offer a splendid opportunity for the Germans and Slavs of the Habsburg Empire to find a common enemy. I guess we could very well see a 2nd Austro-Hungarian War before 1900. In an OTL context we would automatically assume Russia to be allies of the enemies of the Habsburgs, and they might still be, but it will be much more difficult in this ATL because in this ATL it is the Hungarians who are seen as the curse of the Slavs on Balkan.

But Christmas is sure very realistic :cool:


...I still haven't said which Christmas :p
 
As others have already stated life will not necessarily be easy for the new independent Hungary and would offer a splendid opportunity for the Germans and Slavs of the Habsburg Empire to find a common enemy. I guess we could very well see a 2nd Austro-Hungarian War before 1900. In an OTL context we would automatically assume Russia to be allies of the enemies of the Habsburgs, and they might still be, but it will be much more difficult in this ATL because in this ATL it is the Hungarians who are seen as the curse of the Slavs on Balkan.


The Hungarians were also seen (however odd this may sound to modern ears) as "liberals". The Tsar would decidedly not fancy a liberal state on his doorstep, esp in view of the long-standing ties between Hungarian and Polish nationalists.
 
The Hungarians were also seen (however odd this may sound to modern ears) as "liberals". The Tsar would decidedly not fancy a liberal state on his doorstep, esp in view of the long-standing ties between Hungarian and Polish nationalists.
But wouldn't this be balanced against the free hand it could give Russia in the Balkans?
 
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