Habsburg Bavaria - consequences for German unification?

In another thread a scenario was presented where a Habsburg proposal to trade the Austrian (earlier Spanish) Netherlands with Bavaria was accepted (some time between the end of the War of Spanish Succession and the end of the Napoleonic wars). In this scenario Austria might be able to keep Silesia, as Prussia would be weaker compared to Austria. Would this mean that Austria would take the lead in the unification of Germany? If so, would an Austria-dominated Germany be less militaristic than Germany was in the first half of the 20. century?
 
Depends on how strong Prussia is. If Prussia remains a major rival to Austria, then you likely don't get German unification, or you get Germany split into northern and southern camps. If Prussia remains a minor rival, it will likely be excluded from an Austria-united Germany. If Prussia gets knocked out altogether (e.g. a no miracle of Brandenburg scenario), then it will likely be included in an Austria-united Germany.

As for what Germany could look like in such a scenario, I could see Protestants having a very hard time of it, sooner or later. Many might end up leaving to America and Britain. Germany will probably be less militaristic. However, I suspect it will maintains its efficiency, neatness and rule-following. This seems to be inherent to Germanic culture from Hannover to Zurich to Vienna to South Tyrol, regardless of national borders.
 
Depends on how strong Prussia is. If Prussia remains a major rival to Austria, then you likely don't get German unification, or you get Germany split into northern and southern camps. If Prussia remains a minor rival, it will likely be excluded from an Austria-united Germany. If Prussia gets knocked out altogether (e.g. a no miracle of Brandenburg scenario), then it will likely be included in an Austria-united Germany.

As for what Germany could look like in such a scenario, I could see Protestants having a very hard time of it, sooner or later. Many might end up leaving to America and Britain. Germany will probably be less militaristic. However, I suspect it will maintains its efficiency, neatness and rule-following. This seems to be inherent to Germanic culture from Hannover to Zurich to Vienna to South Tyrol, regardless of national borders.

I think that, by that time, no one was pushing religion anymore.

I don't think Austria could conquer the independent duchies by force into germany. If they became "Pan-Germanists", then the other Habsburg territories would revolt.

The Habsburgs tried enforcing their will for centuries and failed. France would not allow it.
 
Seeing that Bavaria is at the same time the least 'Germanic' of all German states, yet in many ways tries to be more Prussian then historic Prussia, I think that if Bavaria ended up under Austrian Habsburg control, Germany would simply unify without it and Bavaria would end up an Austrian province like Tirol (with which it shares many similarities, geographically, economically and culturally). OTL Bavaria was the latest state to join Germany and only became the economic powerhouse it is today after a massive development effort paid for by federal Western German funds in the 1950's. Without Austria launching a similar effort a Habsburg Bavaria would still be a rural region with brewing and ski-tourism as its biggest economy. And although it would be a 'brotherland' to unified Germany, it would still be considered Austria.... Which causes its own series of butterflies when the Nazi party starts forming in the beerhalls of Munich and Nuremberg... Or would they form in the beerhalls of Köln instead?
 
Seeing that Bavaria is at the same time the least 'Germanic' of all German states, yet in many ways tries to be more Prussian then historic Prussia, I think that if Bavaria ended up under Austrian Habsburg control, Germany would simply unify without it and Bavaria would end up an Austrian province like Tirol (with which it shares many similarities, geographically, economically and culturally). OTL Bavaria was the latest state to join Germany and only became the economic powerhouse it is today after a massive development effort paid for by federal Western German funds in the 1950's. Without Austria launching a similar effort a Habsburg Bavaria would still be a rural region with brewing and ski-tourism as its biggest economy. And although it would be a 'brotherland' to unified Germany, it would still be considered Austria.... Which causes its own series of butterflies when the Nazi party starts forming in the beerhalls of Munich and Nuremberg... Or would they form in the beerhalls of Köln instead?

If Bavaria ended up as part of Austria some time in the hundred year period before 1815, there would be so many butterflies that the nazis would never even exist. Would there even be an early twentieth century great war and if so, which powers would line up on each side. Things might change a lot even before then. Depending on how early the POD there might not even be a French revolution and hence no Napoleonic France. If Austria got Bavaria after the War of Spanish Succession, there might even be no War of Austrian Succession.
 
Seeing that Bavaria is at the same time the least 'Germanic' of all German states, yet in many ways tries to be more Prussian then historic Prussia, I think that if Bavaria ended up under Austrian Habsburg control, Germany would simply unify without it and Bavaria would end up an Austrian province like Tirol (with which it shares many similarities, geographically, economically and culturally). OTL Bavaria was the latest state to join Germany and only became the economic powerhouse it is today after a massive development effort paid for by federal Western German funds in the 1950's. Without Austria launching a similar effort a Habsburg Bavaria would still be a rural region with brewing and ski-tourism as its biggest economy. And although it would be a 'brotherland' to unified Germany, it would still be considered Austria.... Which causes its own series of butterflies when the Nazi party starts forming in the beerhalls of Munich and Nuremberg... Or would they form in the beerhalls of Köln instead?

Look we have an expert on Bavaria here :eek:
 
In another thread a scenario was presented where a Habsburg proposal to trade the Austrian (earlier Spanish) Netherlands with Bavaria was accepted (some time between the end of the War of Spanish Succession and the end of the Napoleonic wars). In this scenario Austria might be able to keep Silesia, as Prussia would be weaker compared to Austria. Would this mean that Austria would take the lead in the unification of Germany? If so, would an Austria-dominated Germany be less militaristic than Germany was in the first half of the 20. century?

There are a lot of possible consequences.

Here's one:

If Austria also retains Silesia, that means that the the Hapsburg domain is weighted more toward Germany. The Hapsburgs will be more interested in further territorlal expansion in Germany. One probable area for this is "Hither Austria" in southwestern Germany.
HithAust.jpg
These holdings were the remnant of the original Hapsburg domain, which also included Switzerland. OTL, when the HRE was consolidated in 1803-1806, they were ceded to Baden and Wurttemberg. which also absorbed the other petty states in the area. Vienna didn't care much, and with Bavaria in between they were not well-connected to the rest of the Hapsburg lands.

If Bavaria is Hapsburg, there's a broad connection, and most likely the Hapsburgs add those petty states, forming a solid wedge of territory all the way to the Rhine.

There are lots of ways for unification to play out. Prussia is the second power in Germany, with holdings scattered across the north; it could unify north Germany. Austria could gain Franconia as well as Bavaria. There might be some minor states wedged into the center-west of Germany: Hesse, Hesse-Darmstadt, Hesse-Kassel, the Palatinate.

With much extra German ballast, Austria will more effectively command Hungary. It could end with a sprawling, predominantly German but deeply polyglot state stretching from the Rhine to Transylvania; a second north German state from east Prussia to the Rhine; and a buffer of several minor states in between.

HithAust.jpg
 
With a POD in the War of Spanish Succession, there's no guarantee that Prussia ever rises to be a great power to begin with. The Silesian Wars are likely butterflied away.
 
With a POD in the War of Spanish Succession, there's no guarantee that Prussia ever rises to be a great power to begin with. The Silesian Wars are likely butterflied away.

Unless we assume that also the rise of nationalism should be butterflied away (which I see no particular reason why it should), that gives rise to interesting scenarios in the nineteenth century. With Austria in control of both Bavaria and Silesia, Prussia would probably be more similar to Saxony in power. If all the German areas should be united under one state, Austria would be the most likely state do do the job. But then the question arises what should happen to the non-German states? Should they become part of Germany to?

And what would happen to Poland in this scenario? Would it still be divided? If so, I assume only Russia and Austria would be involved in the division (?).
 
And what would happen to Poland in this scenario? Would it still be divided? If so, I assume only Russia and Austria would be involved in the division (?).

That would depend heavily on Poland's internal political situation. Will Russia still manage to intervene in Polish politics and make it a satellite state? If they do, they may prefer to keep it Poland that way (as they did for a time in OTL) rather than partition it, especially as Austria might not be terribly interested in it either as they were the most reluctant in OTL. And a lot can change with a POD decades before the partitions began.
 
That would depend heavily on Poland's internal political situation. Will Russia still manage to intervene in Polish politics and make it a satellite state? If they do, they may prefer to keep it Poland that way (as they did for a time in OTL) rather than partition it, especially as Austria might not be terribly interested in it either as they were the most reluctant in OTL. And a lot can change with a POD decades before the partitions began.

Long time since I read about this, but IIRC Poland and Saxony was in personal union at some point of time the year 1700 (+/-). Could anyone remind me about this more exactly?
 
There are a lot of possible consequences.

Here's one:

If Austria also retains Silesia, that means that the the Hapsburg domain is weighted more toward Germany. The Hapsburgs will be more interested in further territorlal expansion in Germany. One probable area for this is "Hither Austria" in southwestern Germany.
View attachment 260147
These holdings were the remnant of the original Hapsburg domain, which also included Switzerland. OTL, when the HRE was consolidated in 1803-1806, they were ceded to Baden and Wurttemberg. which also absorbed the other petty states in the area. Vienna didn't care much, and with Bavaria in between they were not well-connected to the rest of the Hapsburg lands.

If Bavaria is Hapsburg, there's a broad connection, and most likely the Hapsburgs add those petty states, forming a solid wedge of territory all the way to the Rhine.

There are lots of ways for unification to play out. Prussia is the second power in Germany, with holdings scattered across the north; it could unify north Germany. Austria could gain Franconia as well as Bavaria. There might be some minor states wedged into the center-west of Germany: Hesse, Hesse-Darmstadt, Hesse-Kassel, the Palatinate.

With much extra German ballast, Austria will more effectively command Hungary. It could end with a sprawling, predominantly German but deeply polyglot state stretching from the Rhine to Transylvania; a second north German state from east Prussia to the Rhine; and a buffer of several minor states in between.

And I assume the Austrian Netherlands also could be included in an Austria-lead unification of Germany. After all, what constitutes Germany is a subjective question. It would also help if Austria, at a relatively early time, managed to get hold on some areas in Western Germany, around the Rhine.
 
If we're giving the Bavarian Wittelsbachs the Austrian Netherlands, it's worth noting that when/if the Palatine line inherits from them, you end up with a state that extends to modern Jülich and Berg - i.e., much further east than contemporary Belgium. I'm not sure how important that is.

More broadly, I think it depends massively when this is happening. Is it happening at the end of the War of the Spanish Succession, with Max Emanuel never restored to Bavaria and instead given Belgium as a consolation prize? This is so contrary to British and Dutch interests that I have a hard time seeing that as plausible. Is it happening after the War of the Bavarian Succession? Is it happening in the mid/late 1780s? In those cases, you have the Duke of Zweibrücken refusing to agree, and Frederick and the British/Hanoverians claiming to act in the name of the German constitution to prevent it, and Austria having no real support from either of their nominal allies.
 
Too much butterflies to acount? did the french revolution happen? did napoleon happen? did the revolutionary wars happen? did prussia won rhineland or keep all their polish partition territory instead?

If prussia keep all their polish territory(and won austria one in exchange to allow the cowtrading between austria and bavaria, you need to bribe the Potsdam general first ;) ) that would make prussia an indepent nation of germany itself.
 
Austria would be very well placed to unify Germany if it controlled Bavaria between 1714 and 1795 per the original thread. If we want it to affect the War of Austrian Succession (so that Silesia remains Austrian), then it has to occur before 1740 so the time period is between 1714-1740.

Since Frederick the Great was born in 1712, it's highly likely he will become King of Prussia and want to attack Austria to control Silesia. However, with Austria controlling Bavaria, Frederick won't have an important ally. Furthermore, if we assume Austria gained Bavaria, then we likely have a scenario where a woman isn't inheriting the Austrian throne, preventing Frederick (and others) their pretext to attack Austria. It's likely Frederick will seek something else to attack in order to expand Prussia, although what that is I don't know. Lots of potential for butterflies here.

However, I am assuming Austria likely enters the 19th century with both Silesia and Bavaria. Keeping Silesia gives Austria an important region for heavy industry. Bavaria has few natural resources, but it seems to have good human capital, farmland, forests, and population. It will certainly be the most powerful German state entering the 19th century.

However, besides Silesia, the main thing that enabled Prussia to unify Germany was the industrial base of the Rhine and Ruhr. That was assigned to it as a result of the Congress of Vienna to compensate it for loss of its Polish territories to Russia (although Prussia does control a little bit of the land there because of earlier acquisitions).

Without the Napoleonic Wars (and Napoleon is likely to be butterflied away), that rich Rhenish territory is likely to be divided up into whatever German principalities it was. Of course, the Austrians benefit because they are still Holy Roman Emperors since Napoleon never abolished it.

It is going to be a slow process though of turning the Holy Roman Empire into a true national state. The little princes of the Empire don't want to surrender their autonomy. However, it is possible by mid to late 19th century, the rise of industrial power and nationalist feeling (although this late will be much subdued since there is no Napoleon and perhaps not even a French Revolution) can probably get the Habsburgs to enact reforms that centralizes the empire more and eliminates customs barriers.

However, there are so many other important factors to consider - what does France do, what do the other major states of the Empire do, how strong are nationalist feelings, what is the balance of power?

So much changed in the 19th century because of Napoleon, it is hard to project any clear path started earlier.
 
To be clear, most are referring to only the borders of the Elecotrate of Bavaria? I see the northern portions that were seperate duchies and states might not all end up under the Austrians, or they would end up in their own duchies in the empire at some point even if part of Bavaria for a while, like how Salzburg was part of Upper Austria for a while after its annexation.
 
Add in the Austrian Netherlands to the mix and you could see a very interesting Germany take shape.
 
How long until the church lands around the Burgundian areas became fully Wittlesbesh instead of just having their sons as bishops?
 
Is it happening after the War of the Bavarian Succession? Is it happening in the mid/late 1780s? In those cases, you have the Duke of Zweibrücken refusing to agree, and Frederick and the British/Hanoverians claiming to act in the name of the German constitution to prevent it, and Austria having no real support from either of their nominal allies.

I suppose you could see something in a POD where the Prussians lose the 7 years war? But then everyone would be opposed to this transfer, save maybe France; and even France would probably prefer the Austrians with indefensible outposts on its border.
 
With a POD in the War of Spanish Succession, there's no guarantee that Prussia ever rises to be a great power to begin with. The Silesian Wars are likely butterflied away.

Unless Charles VI gets a son, the War of Austrian Succession still likely happens.
 
Top