H.W Bush/Dole 1980 (Collaborative Thread)

Good question. The way we have Bush handling ART and Desert Storm, his brand of Republicans will probably do well.

Gains for Republicans in the Senate and House. Republicans may push up to 200 Seats in the House. Republicans continue control of the Senate, maybe gain two or three seats.
 
February 17, 1982: Bush appears with the governor in Birmingham, talking up the jobs and wealth that the Southern Line will bring. A Gallup poll finds his approval rating at 62%, a peacetime high for him.

February 21, 1982: The United States begins an embargo on Libyan oil, on grounds of terror sponsorship. [Earlier than OTL due to approval ratings and succees in Desert Storm]

February 24, 1982: To Bush's irritation, Director Inman informs the Congressional intelligence committees about planned operations in Nicaragua. These are approved - most of the Congressmen are fine with anti-communist operations - but Bush is worried this sets a precedent, and one he can't publicly talk against.
 
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October 2nd, 1981: Former HUD Secretary, Carla Anderson Hills is confirmed as the US's first woman justice on the Supreme Court

May 3rd, 1982:
President Bush visits Pope Leo XIV in Vatican City. The two find common agreement in anti-communism(but disagree on how to bring Democracy to Communist countries) and helping victims of AIDS. The Pope says to Bush, "It makes no difference that they are homosexuals, Jesus ate with sinners, not because they were healthy, but because they were sick."
 
May 4th, 1982: Secretary of Defense Robert Bennett proposes that the U.S military conduct Normandy-style landings in Cuba, with the intention of overthrowing dictator Fidel Castro. Bennett argues that the invasion will not only emphasize the U.S' influence as a global power and terrify the USSR, but also bring in much-needed money to the economy, by transforming Cuba into a beach resort, complete with casinos.
 
May 4th, 1982: Secretary of Defense Robert Bennett proposes that the U.S military conduct Normandy-style landings in Cuba, with the intention of overthrowing dictator Fidel Castro. Bennett argues that the invasion will not only emphasize the U.S' influence as a global power and terrify the USSR, but also bring in much-needed money to the economy, by transforming Cuba into a beach resort, complete with casinos.

Was this seriously considered? I could see operations like that being bandied around in the cabinet during the height of the Castro scare, but it seems out of place here.
 
It wasn't considered in the OTL, no. I do think it has the potential to be interesting, though.

I guess I'm a little skeptical for two reasons, the first being that Cuba was sort of a lost cause. Serious plans to invade it had pretty much died since the Bay of Pigs and it was firmly in the Soviet fold. Heck, it was actively participating in proxy wars in Africa alongside Warsaw Pact nations. If there was conflict to be had with Cuba, it was almost certainly never going to be direct. Secondly, an invasion of Cuba would almost certainly draw the total ire of the USSR. Bush would know when to pick his battles, and invading a key regional ally of the Soviets would not be advisable.

However, if the Cubans were to get even more seriously involved in Africa (say, sending troops to directly assist in overthrowing the apartheid govt in SA - that would almost certainly reverse any apathy Bush would have towards supporting the government of SA), and the US and Cubans were to subsequently cross swords (maybe the Cuban forces down US planes or something else like that, I'm just throwing out ideas), I could see the potential for escalation. It all depends on how much the US wants to go to war with Cuba, and whether the USSR decides to let Cuba handle its own mess in this case.

Edit: In a nutshell what I'm saying is is that Cuba would have to fuck up pretty badly to simultaneously bring down the thunder from the US and force the USSR to back off and let things happen. And Castro is no idiot.
 
I want this to happen in the TL, as I think it has the potential to shake things up.
I'm just worried how the Soviet Union perceives it. It could be a second Cuban Missile Crisis. Oh wait I got an idea. Somehow the Soviets intercept reports of the plan to invade Cuba only days before the actual invasion. Bush immediately cancels it and denies it fervently. Eventually the truth is revealed a year or two later, jeopardizing the failure of the Bush presidency, and possibly raises the question of impeachment. Nixon giving Bush advice would be excellent.
 
I'm just worried how the Soviet Union perceives it. It could be a second Cuban Missile Crisis. Oh wait I got an idea. Somehow the Soviets intercept reports of the plan to invade Cuba only days before the actual invasion. Bush immediately cancels it and denies it fervently. Eventually the truth is revealed a year or two later, jeopardizing the failure of the Bush presidency, and possibly raises the question of impeachment. Nixon giving Bush advice would be excellent.

That'd be interesting. What sort of incident do you think would provoke the US to ponder an invasion? Or are you envisioning a serious bout of overconfidence on their part?
 
That'd be interesting. What sort of incident do you think would provoke the US to ponder an invasion? Or are you envisioning a serious bout of overconfidence on their part?
Maybe a KAL Flight 007 like event, only over Cuba and with a majority of Americans. Perhaps the flight has to make an emergency landing, Cuba being the only option. Air Traffic Control doesn't respond, and when the Aircraft attempts to land, Cuban Air Force shoots it down. A preliminary report merely suggests an invasion, The Soviets intercept it, but they take it at face value. Bush denys it because he doesn't want to be perceived as a war monger.
 
I'm just worried how the Soviet Union perceives it. It could be a second Cuban Missile Crisis. Oh wait I got an idea. Somehow the Soviets intercept reports of the plan to invade Cuba only days before the actual invasion. Bush immediately cancels it and denies it fervently. Eventually the truth is revealed a year or two later, jeopardizing the failure of the Bush presidency, and possibly raises the question of impeachment. Nixon giving Bush advice would be excellent.

I'd prefer that the invasion actually occurs and succeeds.
 
An invasion of Cuba will not work, 1.) it would incur the wrath of the USSR, 2.) it would incur the wrath of the UN and the international community, 3.)this:
It's not gonna happen thanks to the virtual agreement between the US and USSR outlined in 1962.

Finally, there's no reason for the US to invade at this juncture.
A proxy conflict between Cuba and the US would work, though. Perhaps in South Africa, when Cuba sends troops to help the ANC-SACP, while the US (discreetly) helps the Apartheid government.
 
A proxy conflict between Cuba and the US would work, though. Perhaps in South Africa, when Cuba sends troops to help the ANC-SACP, while the US (discreetly) helps the Apartheid government.

Why would Cuba do that when the USSR exists?
 
An invasion of Cuba will not work, 1.) it would incur the wrath of the USSR, 2.) it would incur the wrath of the UN and the international community, and 3.)this:


A proxy conflict between Cuba and the US would work, though. Perhaps in South Africa, when Cuba sends troops to help the ANC-SACP, while the US (discreetly) helps the Apartheid government.

I like this. Also doesn't Botha and someone else in the government die. I can see civil war brewing in South Africa.
 
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