(re Desert Storm, happy to change that if anyone can think of a better name - I got stuck!)
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June 11, 1981: Iran launches a massive offensive on Iraq and then ceases: they worry the US and Israeli might leave Iraq alone to spite them (the regime doesn't think the Israelis actually care about the dead in Jerusalem), but felt the need to make a point to Iraq.
June 12, 1981: It's clear Israel wants to flatten Saddam and to hell with Iraq afterwards, which is a huge problem for Bush - and Baker is rushing around the Middle East trying to convince Arab leaders that American won't allow this, to keep them from opposing it. A compromise is agreed, that Saddam Hussein needs to be removed but the Baathist government can remain. Bush hopes this means there'll be a coup attempt and end the conflict sooner. Both Jordan and Turkey are being sounded out to allow foreign troops in, in case ground operations are needed and because the US really wants at least one Arabic Muslim country to be involved for the look of the thing (Turks not being Arabs is considered irrelevant).
June 14, 1981: After days of intense wrangling and horse-trading, Nixon gets Suslov to agree to not properly oppose the war - the Soviets can condemn it publicly for the look of the thing - on the promise that the Baathists will remain in power, that Iraq won't be occupied by US or Israeli troops, and Bush will "keep Begin on a leash". Much of this is kept secret at the time.
At the same day, Thatcher pledges British support. The Royal Navy will patrol the Iraqi maritime border to free up US and Israeli resources. The British people are lukewarm on this: the general perception is that while Saddam is a bastard, Israel did start it.
Neither Jordan nor Turkey is biting so far, and it's discussed whether to reach out to Kuwait.
June 16, 1981: Iraq launches another attack on Israel, this time targeting Israeli shipping - two planes are shot down but one warship is damaged, killing thirteen soldiers, and a cargo ship is sunk taking the lives of sixteen sailors. The problem is the ship was, in fact, Turkish, and Turkey declares war as a result.
June 17-18, 1981: Bush convenes a hastily-arranged "Ankara Conference" with Begin, Thatcher, and Admiral Ulusu. It's made clear that this is a retaliatory action to "the callous slaughter of innocents", with the Turkish sailors mentioned as well as the Jerusalem dead, and that this action is to remove "the mad dog Saddam Hussein" rather than "to punish the innocents of Iraq". A twenty-four hour ultimatum is given. Without the knowledge of Begin or Thatcher, Bush - going back to CIA mentality - quietly asks Ulusu if Turkey can talk to Iran on "our behalf", to share any intelligence they have on Iraq and to keep out of Desert Storm.
At midnight, Hussein orders an attack on HMS Sheffield in the hope of scaring the alliance into backing off. The destroyer is startled by two Iraqi ships but manages to sink one before retreating to a friendly port, badly damaged. Iraqi media trumpets this as "FIRST BLOOD"; the British media runs with a famous image of HMS Sheffield's deck partly burning while sailors still man the guns, with the Sun running with "BRITISH STEEL". The day sees air battles between Iraqi and US-Israeli forces, downing two Americans and one Israeli pilot to six Iraqis during air-defence raids. Still believing he can scare off at least part of the alliance, Saddam orders bombardment of border towns in Hakkari Province - most of the nearby areas have been evacuated but thirty two civilians and sixteen police & army running the evacuations are killed. (Most of the civilians were Kurdish but at this point, they'll be counted as good decent Turks) Turkey retaliates with the shelling of Iraqi border villages, killing twenty four civilians, and accelerates plans to seize the border city of Zakho if the war drags on.
June 21, 1981: Iraqi missiles hit Haifa during rush hour traffic; two hundred and thirty people are killed. Israel retaliates with an air raid on Bahgdad itself, killing ninety two civilians & emergency services and also Iraq's agriculture minister (and nineteen airmen and soldiers) at the expense of four pilots. While Bush supports this in public, in private he's furious that Begin didn't warn him about this and that each deliberate or seemingly deliberate attack on civilians chips away at support for Desert Storm. Begin and Bush have a vicious discussion, and while Begin comes out of it deciding not to do this again, he doesn't admit this to Bush.
June 23, 1981: The First Intifada breaks out in Gaza. (The West Bank, while unhappy about the war, has lost people from Iraqi attacks and merely simmers) This is spontaneous but Iraqi intelligence sees this as exploitable.
June 25, 1981: After a week of naval exchanges, the Royal Navy (with Israeli support and unwittingly using Iran-supplied intell) carries out Operation Dagon: cracking Iraqi naval communications to entrap much of its attacking fleet, while a secondary group attacks naval ports. Hundreds of sailors are killed or crippled - and HMS Brilliant and HMS Avenger are sunk during the battle - but the Iraqi navy effectively no longer exists.
Barely noticed in the West, IDF troops batter Palestinian youths at a protest - one protestor is killed. A riot breaks out that night and is harshly stopped.
June 29, 1981: Conference at Camp David (it's too risky to use Ankara again). To everyone's shock, Iraq still isn't suing for peace despite Operation Dagon. Bush is extremely worried about this becoming a second Vietnam; US support relies on low US casualties and six dead airmen so far are already worrying people. Ulusu proposes seizing Zahko to startle the Iraqi army into turning on Saddam and while Bush is aware this is Turkey being opportunistic, it does seem like the best alternative. It's agreed that land operations will be carried out by mid-August if Saddam does not surrender.
That same day, the First Intifada breaks out into major violence: Iraqi intelligence has made contact with various militias and encouraged them to do this now, to give Israel a "bloody nose in front of its friends", and promises arms. (Iraq has no interest at this point in actually sending arms but wants to redirect Israeli focus) Armed gangs attack Israeli police and army across Gaza, resulting in two deaths and nine serious injuries to twenty one dead youths.
June 30 to August 1, 1981: The Gaza Strip erupts. The Palestinian militants are expecting imminent aid from Iraq - all they get is a missile strike that accidentally hits East Jerusalem and kills twenty three Arabs - and the angry youth are swept up in the fury. Israeli forces fall back across the Strip to a few more defendable bases and go into siege mode. Once the Palestinians have exhausted themselves, helicopter gunships drive them back from the bases and bombard four suspected militant HQs (of which two are not). Riot damage is extensive, as fires ran out of control, and Palestinians deemed 'collaborators' have been attacked or killed; over a hundred rioters & militants or youths suspected of it were killed in the fighting, with sixteen Israeli troops dead (nine of them during the sudden shock of the initial attacks).
Israel organises tank crews and infantry to, in Begin's words, "bring down the hammer". This gives Iraq its distraction. The militants have overextended and exhausted themselves though: unless Iraqi guns actually show up, they're screwed.
August 5, 1981: Sympathy protests in West Bank are harshly crushed - this actually causes greater anger than the 'Sacking of Gaza', as many people in East Jerusalem believed the Gazans were fools manipulated by a man who'd been killing them. The riot police have now made this a local issue.
August 9, 1981: Saddam finally has guns smuggled into Gaza but they're intercepted. Bush has this paraded in the US media, trying to turn falling support for Desert Storm around.
August 12, 1981: A false build-up of allied forces starts at the wrong end of the Iraqi border, as a counterintelligence move. Meanwhile, Nixon - at great effort - has convinced the Soviets to allow this as long as the US only makes a limited invasion, leaving the rest to Turkey. (Nixon is lying about where the US is going to invade but the Soviets know he's lying)
August 23, 1981: The Intifada is officially over, with hundreds dead and thousands in jail or displaced - three sympathy protests and riots have been crushed in the West Bank. With this distraction over, the delayed land invasion of Iraq can started. The invasion of Zakho catches Iraq off guard: the defences are overwhelmed in massed Turkish and US firepower, before paratroop landings herald the arrival of armoured divisions. Fifty one locals are killed in the invasion and US engineering corps work to get the power back on & hospitals running. The race is also on to fortify the city for the expected Iraqi retaliation. Bush publicly calls again for Saddam to stand down "for the sake of your people" and propaganda leaflets are dropped across the country.
Officially, the Soviet Union condemns this. Behind the scenes, Bush reiterates to Turkey that this is the furthest the US can go.