H.W Bush/Dole 1980 (Collaborative Thread)

November 11 1981: Steven Spielberg, inspired by the decreased morale that began in the 1970s, announces that he will be working on an adaptation of Batman for the Silver Screen, with an intended release by 1984. He expresses interest in John Travolta playing the titular role and Mork and Mindy star Robin Williams playing the Joker. Spielberg states in an interview that his film will take cues from writer Dennis 'O' Neil's grittier interpretation of the Dark Knight, instead of the more popular camp interpretation prevalent in the 1960s.

November 13 1981: Comic actor John Belushi expresses interest in portraying the Penguin in a potential sequel to Spielberg's Batman, citing his status as a long-term fan of DC comics, particularly Batman.
 
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June 12th, 1981: The Adventures of Indiana Jones: Raiders of the Lost Ark, directed by Stephen Spielberg and produced by George Lucas, is released in theaters, to financial success.

July 10th, 1981: Escape from New York, directed by John Carpenter, and starring Kurt Russell, and Donald Pleasance as "President Conifer", debuts in theaters.

July 15th, 1982: The Hulk, written by Alan Moore, debuts. The story features the Hulk in increasing bizarre adventures. Many involving the military industrial complex, and his own sanity, as the Bruce Banner persona begins to disappear. It is revealed that the military had planned the Hulk's accident (by directing Rick Jones and his friends to the site) in order to study the effects of Gamma Rays on humans, and perhaps create an army. Thunderbolt Ross was unwittingly used as a tool for observations of the Hulk, while the former pursued him. The Hulk also explore bizarre dimensions with Dr. Strange, and goes into more alien territories than before. The more horror oriented nature of the strips, as well as the emphasis on the more monster like nature of Hulk, manage to garner acclaim, and even gain attention from outside the comics industry, partially because of the popular "Hulk" television show. Moore's work on the Hulk, as well as Frank Miller's work on Daredevil bring out what is called "the Marvel renaissance."
 
January 3rd, 1982: President Bush declares a PHSE (Public Health State of Emergency) when an unknown virus known by the insidious acronym AIDS starts spreading around the U.S, particularly around homosexual males. He increases research spending on investigating the causes of the virus, much to the ire of the more conservative Republicans, who deem Bush a "moral degenerate" for publicly supporting measures against a "gay disease". In retaliation, Bush angrily defends his choices against the self-titled "Rabid Reds", decrying their insensitivity towards suffering Americans, stating at a speech on January 10th: "We have a duty to help our fellow brothers and sisters, regardless of their personal choices. I may not agree with some of the lifestyles of these afflicted people, but that's no excuse to deny them help! I will not tolerate this sociopathic behavior, not on my watch!"
 
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May 13th, 1981: Pope John Paul II is shot and killed by Mehmet Ali Ağca, a Turkish gunman who shots himself, after Pope John Paul II, enters St. Peter's Square in Vatican City to address a general audience.

May 19th, 1981: After laying in state for the maximum six days, Pope John Paul II, is laid to rest in a tomb within St. Peter's Basilica.

May 28th, 1981: The Cardinals are sealed with the Sistine Chapel awaiting the Papal Conclave, ready to vote on their next pope.
 
(re Desert Storm, happy to change that if anyone can think of a better name - I got stuck!)

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June 11, 1981: Iran launches a massive offensive on Iraq and then ceases: they worry the US and Israeli might leave Iraq alone to spite them (the regime doesn't think the Israelis actually care about the dead in Jerusalem), but felt the need to make a point to Iraq.

June 12, 1981: It's clear Israel wants to flatten Saddam and to hell with Iraq afterwards, which is a huge problem for Bush - and Baker is rushing around the Middle East trying to convince Arab leaders that American won't allow this, to keep them from opposing it. A compromise is agreed, that Saddam Hussein needs to be removed but the Baathist government can remain. Bush hopes this means there'll be a coup attempt and end the conflict sooner. Both Jordan and Turkey are being sounded out to allow foreign troops in, in case ground operations are needed and because the US really wants at least one Arabic Muslim country to be involved for the look of the thing (Turks not being Arabs is considered irrelevant).

June 14, 1981: After days of intense wrangling and horse-trading, Nixon gets Suslov to agree to not properly oppose the war - the Soviets can condemn it publicly for the look of the thing - on the promise that the Baathists will remain in power, that Iraq won't be occupied by US or Israeli troops, and Bush will "keep Begin on a leash". Much of this is kept secret at the time.

At the same day, Thatcher pledges British support. The Royal Navy will patrol the Iraqi maritime border to free up US and Israeli resources. The British people are lukewarm on this: the general perception is that while Saddam is a bastard, Israel did start it.

Neither Jordan nor Turkey is biting so far, and it's discussed whether to reach out to Kuwait.

June 16, 1981: Iraq launches another attack on Israel, this time targeting Israeli shipping - two planes are shot down but one warship is damaged, killing thirteen soldiers, and a cargo ship is sunk taking the lives of sixteen sailors. The problem is the ship was, in fact, Turkish, and Turkey declares war as a result.

June 17-18, 1981: Bush convenes a hastily-arranged "Ankara Conference" with Begin, Thatcher, and Admiral Ulusu. It's made clear that this is a retaliatory action to "the callous slaughter of innocents", with the Turkish sailors mentioned as well as the Jerusalem dead, and that this action is to remove "the mad dog Saddam Hussein" rather than "to punish the innocents of Iraq". A twenty-four hour ultimatum is given. Without the knowledge of Begin or Thatcher, Bush - going back to CIA mentality - quietly asks Ulusu if Turkey can talk to Iran on "our behalf", to share any intelligence they have on Iraq and to keep out of Desert Storm.

At midnight, Hussein orders an attack on HMS Sheffield in the hope of scaring the alliance into backing off. The destroyer is startled by two Iraqi ships but manages to sink one before retreating to a friendly port, badly damaged. Iraqi media trumpets this as "FIRST BLOOD"; the British media runs with a famous image of HMS Sheffield's deck partly burning while sailors still man the guns, with the Sun running with "BRITISH STEEL". The day sees air battles between Iraqi and US-Israeli forces, downing two Americans and one Israeli pilot to six Iraqis during air-defence raids. Still believing he can scare off at least part of the alliance, Saddam orders bombardment of border towns in Hakkari Province - most of the nearby areas have been evacuated but thirty two civilians and sixteen police & army running the evacuations are killed. (Most of the civilians were Kurdish but at this point, they'll be counted as good decent Turks) Turkey retaliates with the shelling of Iraqi border villages, killing twenty four civilians, and accelerates plans to seize the border city of Zakho if the war drags on.

June 21, 1981: Iraqi missiles hit Haifa during rush hour traffic; two hundred and thirty people are killed. Israel retaliates with an air raid on Bahgdad itself, killing ninety two civilians & emergency services and also Iraq's agriculture minister (and nineteen airmen and soldiers) at the expense of four pilots. While Bush supports this in public, in private he's furious that Begin didn't warn him about this and that each deliberate or seemingly deliberate attack on civilians chips away at support for Desert Storm. Begin and Bush have a vicious discussion, and while Begin comes out of it deciding not to do this again, he doesn't admit this to Bush.

June 23, 1981:
The First Intifada breaks out in Gaza. (The West Bank, while unhappy about the war, has lost people from Iraqi attacks and merely simmers) This is spontaneous but Iraqi intelligence sees this as exploitable.

June 25, 1981: After a week of naval exchanges, the Royal Navy (with Israeli support and unwittingly using Iran-supplied intell) carries out Operation Dagon: cracking Iraqi naval communications to entrap much of its attacking fleet, while a secondary group attacks naval ports. Hundreds of sailors are killed or crippled - and HMS Brilliant and HMS Avenger are sunk during the battle - but the Iraqi navy effectively no longer exists.

Barely noticed in the West, IDF troops batter Palestinian youths at a protest - one protestor is killed. A riot breaks out that night and is harshly stopped.

June 29, 1981: Conference at Camp David (it's too risky to use Ankara again). To everyone's shock, Iraq still isn't suing for peace despite Operation Dagon. Bush is extremely worried about this becoming a second Vietnam; US support relies on low US casualties and six dead airmen so far are already worrying people. Ulusu proposes seizing Zahko to startle the Iraqi army into turning on Saddam and while Bush is aware this is Turkey being opportunistic, it does seem like the best alternative. It's agreed that land operations will be carried out by mid-August if Saddam does not surrender.

That same day, the First Intifada breaks out into major violence: Iraqi intelligence has made contact with various militias and encouraged them to do this now, to give Israel a "bloody nose in front of its friends", and promises arms. (Iraq has no interest at this point in actually sending arms but wants to redirect Israeli focus) Armed gangs attack Israeli police and army across Gaza, resulting in two deaths and nine serious injuries to twenty one dead youths.


June 30 to August 1, 1981: The Gaza Strip erupts. The Palestinian militants are expecting imminent aid from Iraq - all they get is a missile strike that accidentally hits East Jerusalem and kills twenty three Arabs - and the angry youth are swept up in the fury. Israeli forces fall back across the Strip to a few more defendable bases and go into siege mode. Once the Palestinians have exhausted themselves, helicopter gunships drive them back from the bases and bombard four suspected militant HQs (of which two are not). Riot damage is extensive, as fires ran out of control, and Palestinians deemed 'collaborators' have been attacked or killed; over a hundred rioters & militants or youths suspected of it were killed in the fighting, with sixteen Israeli troops dead (nine of them during the sudden shock of the initial attacks).

Israel organises tank crews and infantry to, in Begin's words, "bring down the hammer". This gives Iraq its distraction. The militants have overextended and exhausted themselves though: unless Iraqi guns actually show up, they're screwed.


August 5, 1981: Sympathy protests in West Bank are harshly crushed - this actually causes greater anger than the 'Sacking of Gaza', as many people in East Jerusalem believed the Gazans were fools manipulated by a man who'd been killing them. The riot police have now made this a local issue.


August 9, 1981: Saddam finally has guns smuggled into Gaza but they're intercepted. Bush has this paraded in the US media, trying to turn falling support for Desert Storm around.


August 12, 1981: A false build-up of allied forces starts at the wrong end of the Iraqi border, as a counterintelligence move. Meanwhile, Nixon - at great effort - has convinced the Soviets to allow this as long as the US only makes a limited invasion, leaving the rest to Turkey. (Nixon is lying about where the US is going to invade but the Soviets know he's lying)


August 23, 1981:
The Intifada is officially over, with hundreds dead and thousands in jail or displaced - three sympathy protests and riots have been crushed in the West Bank. With this distraction over, the delayed land invasion of Iraq can started. The invasion of Zakho catches Iraq off guard: the defences are overwhelmed in massed Turkish and US firepower, before paratroop landings herald the arrival of armoured divisions. Fifty one locals are killed in the invasion and US engineering corps work to get the power back on & hospitals running. The race is also on to fortify the city for the expected Iraqi retaliation. Bush publicly calls again for Saddam to stand down "for the sake of your people" and propaganda leaflets are dropped across the country.

Officially, the Soviet Union condemns this. Behind the scenes, Bush reiterates to Turkey that this is the furthest the US can go.
 
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July 15th, 1982: The Hulk, written by Alan Moore, debuts. The story features the Hulk in increasing bizarre adventures. Many involving the military industrial complex, and his own sanity, as the Bruce Banner persona begins to disappear. It is revealed that the military had planned the Hulk's accident (by directing Rick Jones and his friends to the site) in order to study the effects of Gamma Rays on humans, and perhaps create an army. Thunderbolt Ross was unwittingly used as a tool for observations of the Hulk, while the former pursued him. The Hulk also explore bizarre dimensions with Dr. Strange, and goes into more alien territories than before. The more horror oriented nature of the strips, as well as the emphasis on the more monster like nature of Hulk, manage to garner acclaim, and even gain attention from outside the comics industry, partially because of the popular "Hulk" television show. Moore's work on the Hulk, as well as Frank Miller's work on Daredevil bring out what is called "the Marvel renaissance."

Very nice. One recurring thing I have noticed with Moore's work is taking the major themes of classic characters and then upending them (ie Miracle/Marvelman's previous adventures being a computer similuation, Swamp Thing not actually being human, Supreme's existence being a constantly occurring retcon, etc), and it seems you captured that idea here with the Hulk, which is neat.

January 3rd, 1982: President Bush declares a PHSE (Public Health State of Emergency) when an unknown virus known by the insidious acronym AIDS starts spreading around the U.S, particularly around homosexual males. He increases research spending on investigating the causes of the virus, much to the ire of the more conservative Republicans, who deem Bush a "moral degenerate" for publicly supporting measures against a "gay disease". In retaliation, Bush angrily defends his choices against the self-titled "Rabid Reds", decrying their insensitivity towards suffering Americans, stating at a speech on January 10th: "We have a duty to help our fellow brothers and sisters, regardless of their personal choices. I may not agree with some of the lifestyles of these afflicted people, but that's no excuse to deny them help! I will not tolerate this sociopathic behavior, not on my watch!"

I was curious to see how HW would handle the AIDS issue. This makes sense, I see it being an extension of "Compassionate Conservatism" which would definitely be in his ideological toolkit. I expect that his denial of the conservative wing will come back to bite him; much of the 70s was centered around the cultural turn toward conservatism, something from which Reagan and Thatcher greatly benefited. As long as Bush holds back the tide, we will see interesting results. If his ratings fall low enough, we might see a more ideologically conservative challenger for the Republican Nomination in '84.


Once again, great job! You have a really good handle on this, definitely keep going. I am curious to see how committed to this course of action the US will be, and how it plays out for Turkey and Iran.

I'll hopefully be back later today and post some more dates pertinent to the USSR and to pop culture.
 
Remember everybody. In this timeline, Hussein dies on November 4th, 1981. I'm fine with you guys deciding how most things will go in this timeline, but I'd prefer you guys accept his death in this timeline.
 
August 24-26, 1981: Iraq's retaliation at Zakho is fierce but, as the country is running out of missiles and has devastated air power, is primarily tank and infantry. With American anti-tank firepower and heavy armour, Iraq has to back off (though dozens of American and Turkish soldiers are killed and wounded). The Battle of Zakho revives American support for the war, which now seems closer to ending and glamorous on TV. Turkey mobilises to take advantage of the opening.

What's not known for a few more years is that the Russian ambassador quietly informs Saddam that the Americans can't advance any further that Zakho. Suslov has started to worry that the USSR looks weak if it doesn't do anything and America gets too easy a ride, and he & his closest allies are concerned that America might go back to Vietnam-style actions if Iraq isn't a meatgrinder for them. As a result, Saddam promises his generals that America won't dare come any further for fear of casualties and if they just trust him...

August 28, 1981: Turkey's advance runs afoul of heavy Iraqi counterattack, mostly based around Iran-style human wave attacks. Almost twelve thousand Iraqis (a number of them forcibly conscripted) are killed in the first day, to over five thousand Turks. (The fighting and heavy Turkish response also kills a thousand civilians, but this is not realised at the time) Turkey halts the advance to rethink tactics and as American ground forces did not show up, Saddam appears to have 'guessed' correctly. Ulusu and his closest ministers are concerned at how the Turkish public will react: their regime needs the people to see the military has competent and stable, and getting surprised by what seemed like a beaten foe will be a problem.

August 29-September 1, 1981: Slow Turkish advance ends on the 30th and instead Turkey digs in against the human wave attacks. While Turkey is still winning, and Iraq running out of anything beyond warm bodies, Turkish casualties have gone up to eleven thousand and Ulusu has to dismiss several mid-ranking officers for 'incompetence' as a cover. Bush's joint chiefs propose hitting Iraq's oil wells to take the pressure off Turkey and a high-level, highly conflicted debate is had by Bush's cabinet over this - and then between Bush & his ambassadors and several key allies, as this will likely impact oil prices, and then with the Saudis to try and get them to agree to not raise prices. (They agree that prices will only rise to 5% at highest)

On September 1st, all four of the allied nations hit an oil well each. This is deliberately organised to make sure they can't be repaired for months. The Labour Party officially condemns this as "hurting civilians rather than the dictator", "not the justified action that we were supporting".

Iraq's officer corp and ministers are terrified that Saddam is leading them off a cliff and the first talk of a coup takes place.
 
September 3rd, 1981: U.S House of Rep. Al Gore, though in support of the war against Iraq, voices his desire for alternative fuel during this hard time, feeling that the American people need a source of energy that: "Can't be blown to bits by missiles."
 
September 5th, 1981: With oil prices rising rapidly across the country, several green energy protestors and electrical engineers hold mass rallies against the impracticality of fossil fuel. They state that they have a vision that could "change the country, change the world and maybe make us not go to war over barrels of black water!" What this idea is, no one knows...yet
 
September 2, 1981: Oil prices start to go up across the world.

September 3-4, 1981: The coup plotters in Iraq are mostly rounded up, after one of them snitched. Saddam declares "enemies within and without", makes a call for a purge, as well as various curfews and deliberate brownouts to conserve oil "for our martyrs". Control of the army is greater centralised - but said army is forced back when Iran takes advantage of the internal chaos and finally launches a long-planned attack, having had secret assurances from Turkey that the US will be convinced to allow it. Operation Eighth Imam sweeps Iraqi forces out of all Iranian territory and begins shelling border positions, in preparation for invasion.

Turkey finds out they can't convince Bush: the White House will not budge on allowing Iran to make territorial gains. Bush actually finds the phone number for Iran's foreign minister off allied nations and calls his office to personally tell Iran to back off - the startled minister manages to talk Bush into allowing them to threaten a border crossing, though not actually do it, in order to save face. Iraqi forces are now split between two fronts and the Israelis (unaware of the Bush deal and wanting to stop things before Iran moves in) bombs central Bahgdad again.

Internationally, oil prices have reached the 5% increase limit the Saudis agreed to - but to global dismay, some other suppliers and companies are raising it further.

September 7, 1981: Iraqi officers at the Turkish front consider this to be a distraction from the greater Iranian threat and are deeply unhappy with the purging of their higher-ups, not to mention having to order teenagers to rush at tank guns. To the utter shock of most of the world, the officers order a ceasefire without checking with the Turks and demand Bahgdad sends them to Iran. Saddam orders the offices shot for mutiny but finds much of the exhausted, demoralised army is not listening. Bush seizes a chance and has Turkey and Israel hold off, while the US uses every way it has to send messages to Iraq that this will all be over if Saddam goes away.

September 8, 1981: In the early hours, the Republican Guard seals off the presidential palace and several key buildings, expecting a major coup attack. There's actually just a very small delegation sent to ask Saddam to step down; a very confused army major finds much of the centre abandoned. The army seize their chance and declare armistice. Saddam is still, according to him, in power, but is generally under seige and the allies are happy to consider this the end. Saddam being handed over to trial and imprisonment is one of the conditions for peace, though Begin is willing to wait for Saddam to give up & come out rather than pressure the army to charge in, and as expected, Turkey wants to keep Zakho.

Bush makes a media blitz over this, with a speech that circles back to his original claim that this war was about Saddam personally and not the average Iraqis: "the people of this proud nation have themselves thrown him out." He also says "I will listen to any reasonable proposal for how this country can serve its people better" on oil and energy. While this was just meant as a sop to the protestors, Gore calls up the White House and tells him of the idea going around for electric cross-country train links. Bush, intrigued at the idea of having his name pinned to infrastructure rather than a war, agrees to talk more about this,

[Train idea from TheGuy]
 
Guys, while I originally intended for Hussein to be dead on Nov. 4th, 1981, he can die sooner in this TL if you think it would work better. The only rule is that he cannot survive past Nov 4th 1981.
 
September 17th, 1981: Former Gov. of California and Presidential candidate Ronald Reagan voices his disgust over the continued anti-war movement. He bluntly states in an interview with the New York Times that: "If I was in charge of this country, these young degenerates would show respect for our great nation! Patriotism keeps dying with our new generation and it won't get any better!"
 
Sorry, but this is a more plausible 1980 map

c113b107c445145c04450d7fe0a6f852.png

Carter wins more of the South (Reagan won states like Mississippi and Alabama by less than 6%) due to Bush being moderate. However, because Bush is moderate, no Anderson run.

States like Minnesota, Maryland and Hawaii go to Bush narrowly (if you gave all Anderson votes to Reagan 1980 OTL Reagan wins those 3 states)

What do you guys think?
 
Sorry, but this is a more plausible 1980 map

c113b107c445145c04450d7fe0a6f852.png

Carter wins more of the South (Reagan won states like Mississippi and Alabama by less than 6%) due to Bush being moderate. However, because Bush is moderate, no Anderson run.

States like Minnesota, Maryland and Hawaii go to Bush narrowly (if you gave all Anderson votes to Reagan 1980 OTL Reagan wins those 3 states)

What do you guys think?

I'll accept it, but that's the last we will post of the election results. We're far into the timeline now. Would you like to participate?
 
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