H.W Bush/Dole 1980 (Collaborative Thread)

July 14th 1984: Czechoslovakian state TV (CST) switch sides to the demonstrators. The audience are shown how brutal the police and militia are in controlling the situation. In Bratislava and Decin the army is closing the border to Austria, Hungary and the GDR.

July 15th 1984: The Czechoslovak army storms the building of CST in Prague

July 15th 1984: West and East German TV air newscasts in Czech to inform the Czech people about the events in their country. ORF (Austria) and Magyar Televizio (Hungary) do the same in Slovak

The studio's in Brno and Bratislava are still in the hands of the people and they still air reports from Prague

 
July 29th 1984: The Soviet Union, East Germany, Hungary and Bulgaria decided to participate in the Olympic Games in Los Angeles. Making it one of the most exciting Olympics since 1968.

August 15th 1984: Hungary announces they will stop spying on East-German visitors who meet their West-German relatives. Hungarians are allowed to travel to the west without special permission. The GDR announces that no visas are needed to visit their country. The EEC, the Nordic countries and Switzerland lift the obligation for visas for East Germans.

August 17th 1984: Libiyan terrorists attack a discotheque in West-Berlin. Simultanious an attack on a hotel in Amsterdam takes place. 130 lives were lost in total. The terrorists try to flee to the Soviet-Union but were arrested by the KGB upon arrival in Moscow. Hans Modrow orders the East-Berlin firebrigade to assist their colleagues in West-Berlin*

* In the GDR, the firebrigade was part of the army.
 
Why would Rumsfeld run against Bush. They're pretty close politically in many areas.

I get that they may not like themselves personally. But that isn't a reason to run against him. I don't want this to end up like the Bush 2012 TL in which every Democrat runs against Obama

Pretty much what Golfman said:

It would make far more sense for someone like Phil Crane or Jesse Helms to mount a primary challenge, not Rumsfeld.

I don't really mind whatever way this collab goes, or who ultimately receives the nomination, but I do feel that I have to defend my suggestion. The reason I suggested it goes far beyond Rumsfeld and Bush Sr's rivalry, though that would have to play into it. From the beginning of his political career, Rumsfeld was very ambitious and a political ladder climber, and he did contemplate presidential runs a number of times in the 80s, including a run against Bush in 88 which obviously never materialized.

Additionally, he held different policy views from HW that would have given him cause to launch a campaign against him. The first that comes to mind is that he was much more aggressively hawkish and opposed to detente (like Reagan) whereas Bush was more open to the policy of detente as favored by Kissinger and Nixon. For Bush to pull back on military spending (as he has ITTL) it would almost certainly raise red flags for Rumsfeld. Secondly, he was/is a major student of the school of neoliberal economics, like Reagan and Thatcher, while Bush obviously was not. Thirdly, while not especially more socially conservative than Bush, he was to a certain degree. There are good reasons why Reagan considered asking him to be the Veep rather than Bush.

So in my mind, if Rumsfeld had the proper motivation, for instance Dick Cheney or Milton Friedman giving him a call and encouraging him to run, and the right base (dissatisfied Reagan supporters for instance) he would and could mount a notable insurgency campaign. He wouldn't have the Christian right flocking to him in droves by any means, but he was politically nimble and ambitious enough to angle for their support to a certain degree.

So those are my thoughts. By no means should any changes be made to what has been put down; I just wanted to make sure that no one thought that that suggestion was out of the blue or wholly implausible.
 
I don't really mind whatever way this collab goes, or who ultimately receives the nomination, but I do feel that I have to defend my suggestion. The reason I suggested it goes far beyond Rumsfeld and Bush Sr's rivalry, though that would have to play into it. From the beginning of his political career, Rumsfeld was very ambitious and a political ladder climber, and he did contemplate presidential runs a number of times in the 80s, including a run against Bush in 88 which obviously never materialized.

Additionally, he held different policy views from HW that would have given him cause to launch a campaign against him. The first that comes to mind is that he was much more aggressively hawkish and opposed to detente (like Reagan) whereas Bush was more open to the policy of detente as favored by Kissinger and Nixon. For Bush to pull back on military spending (as he has ITTL) it would almost certainly raise red flags for Rumsfeld. Secondly, he was/is a major student of the school of neoliberal economics, like Reagan and Thatcher, while Bush obviously was not. Thirdly, while not especially more socially conservative than Bush, he was to a certain degree. There are good reasons why Reagan considered asking him to be the Veep rather than Bush.

So in my mind, if Rumsfeld had the proper motivation, for instance Dick Cheney or Milton Friedman giving him a call and encouraging him to run, and the right base (dissatisfied Reagan supporters for instance) he would and could mount a notable insurgency campaign. He wouldn't have the Christian right flocking to him in droves by any means, but he was politically nimble and ambitious enough to angle for their support to a certain degree.

So those are my thoughts. By no means should any changes be made to what has been put down; I just wanted to make sure that no one thought that that suggestion was out of the blue or wholly implausible.

I just feel that, despite those factors, it makes no sense for Rumsfeld of all people to challenge Bush.

You mentioned how he is very ambitious, and he definitely is, but challenging a popular incumbent like that would kill his political career.
 
I just feel that, despite those factors, it makes no sense for Rumsfeld of all people to challenge Bush.

You mentioned how he is very ambitious, and he definitely is, but challenging a popular incumbent like that would kill his political career.

After Reagan passed him over as Vice, his political career was dead in the water anyways. But I get what you're saying, I agree, I don't think he would feel altogether secure challenging a strong incumbent. However, he did have his own principles, and Bush's rejection of neoliberal economic policies and scaling back of military spending would almost certainly bother him greatly (probably the latter moreso than the former) enough to take action of some sort, whether it would be merely speaking outt or all the way up to launching his own presidential bid (like I said it was something he considered in '88). It is no sure fact by any means that he would have done so, and I am not vehemently attached to the idea either, but what I am saying is that it is not implausible.

Anyways, I don't want to clutter up this thread with a debate, so I will reiterate that by no means am I protesting the direction the TL has taken, and I don't think any changes should be made either.
 
February 28th, 1984: Senator Joe Biden wins the New Hampshire Democratic Primary with 37.8%, followed by Gary Hart with 27.86% and Walter Mondale with 11.97%

March 6th, 1984: Gary Hart wins the Vermount primary with over 70% of the vote, with Biden gathering 20%, and Mondale with only 7%. In the aftermath, Mondale drops out of the race, and endorses Joe Biden.
 
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September 17th 1984: In Sweden, Olof Palme is voted out of government. The Moderates and Centerpartiet lead by Jens Sjövall will form a new government.

October 1st 1984: Altough commercial tv is banned in Hamburg and West-Berlin, the Luxemburg channel RTL Plus start in these cities. The owner Compagnie Luxembourgoise de Telediffusion rents transmitters in the GDR. The main Saturdaynight show of the GDR "Ein Kessel Buntes" will also been aired in West-Germany, Austria and Switzerland.
 
March 4, 1984: Maine and Vermont caucases for Republicans. [1] Bush gets 50% and 46% respectively, Robertson having 32/34%. Crane's team are severely shocked by these results and the Democrats make hay that Robertson's results come right after his leaked AIDS letter. Pundits are confused as Bush has done better than polling suggested and Crane worse.

March 5, 1984: New polls find that Robertson's stance of ending AIDS funding has hurt the anti-Bush conservative vote - Republicans who were against him on economic & foreign policy grounds rather than religious values & domestic social policy grounds were very unhappy with Robertson's letter and a large chunk think Crane is helping his chances. The religious conservatives, meanwhile, are sticking with Robertson. Crane's team realise they can't win without Robertson getting out of the race and when Robertson rebuffs a plea to quit, they start digging for as much dirt as possible.

March 7, 1984: The gutter press are somehow informed that Pat Robertson was married a few months later than he publicly states and thus his child was born out of wedlock.[2] (This is especially sent to the South Carolina papers, the day before the caucas) Robertson blames Bush - when asked on live TV, a clearly irritated Bush says "East Germany is in chaos and you think I care about Robertson's marriage?".

July 22-6, 1984:
General strike across Czechslovakia. Attempts by security forces to break the strike in Bratislava on the 23rd lead to a night of riots and thirteen protestors & five militias killed, with foreign media reporting this across the country. President Husák decides to buy time and, after seeking assurances from Moscow that they won't intervene (he remembers the Prague Spring), publicly agrees to call off the militias on the 25th and to 'look into' reforms.

August 12th, 1985: Alan Moore quits Marvel Comics over the rewrites on Twilight of the Superheroes - he doesn't tell Kevin O'Neill or Karen Berger, which ticks off both people[3]. (When the fanzine press ask him why, he'll tell them) At the same time, he's arranged for Eclipse, who are doing well with V For Vendetta, to publish a new comic by him and Steve Parkhouse called Big Numbers.

August 13th, 1985: Kevin O'Neill is asked if he'd like to draw a planned solo title for Moore's Hulk and Strange supporting character Constantine. He is and recommends Pat Mills as writer, having enjoyed their collaboration at 2000 AD. (Jim Shooter isn't a fan of O'Neill's art and wouldn't have normally wanted O'Neill on the comic, but he wants to limit damage in case O'Neill might jump ship with Moore)

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[1] Guessing, caucases aren't easilty available for 1984 Repubs. BUTTERFLIES.
[2] In OTL this only came up when Robertson mentioned it but it's safe to assume if someone had gone looking for dirt, they could have found this and trumped it up
[3] Alan Moore has been accused of taking bridge-burning stances without telling his collaborators by artists like Gibbons and Lloyd
 
September 13th, 1984: Derby-Lewis, believing the Americans will accept chemical weapons after all if it's a fait accompli, orders a chemical attack on Johannesburg, aimed at clearing the most fortified border and pouring in infantry fast. Both the MK and Johannesburg Liberty Council were expecting a heavy bombardment of that same area and had contingency plans - fallback positions and commands to fall back once it got "heavy", faked-up weaponry to make certain parts look stronger than they were, evacuation & medical plans for civilians. As a result, less soldiers are killed than Praetoria expected and the infantry finds itself forced back to the outskirts, having made a hole but nothing devastating.

The death toll and injuries are also worse than the MK expected, especially civilian deaths and injuries - and treatment is near-impossible for the latter. Six hundred and eighty nine people die in the end, the bulk civilian. As international condemnation comes in from all corners, Derby-Lewis and his emergency cabinet agree that America will "abandon" them after all.

September 14th, 1984:
"Operation Deplorable" in South Africa: the government announces it is withdrawing from multiple disputed areas, and all white South Africans and a percentage of Asians will be evacuated. In other disputed areas, all "Africans" are being given a 48-hour window to "leave". They promise a ceasefire during this process. The rebel leadership and foreign powers are aware this will allow the regime to consolidate & rearm, while lumbering the rebels with sudden acquisitions and a refugee population they can't control. Some civilians begin to evacuate while others wonder how in the hell this can work, yet others protest.

All remaining EEC nations bar Ireland (due to the need for the consulate in Johannesburg) withdraw their ambassadors at the same time. Bush gets on the red phone to Moscow and (since he can see Eastern Europe is falling from the Soviet orbit easy) states that the US will not come to South Africa's aid "unless the country is sliced up on ethnic grounds, there are weapons of mass destruction used by other parties offensively, or there is genocide against the Afrikaners".

September 15th, 1984:The evacuations in South Africa are an utter mess, especially as minor militias use this as a license to attack regime forces & isolated farms, and significant minorities of whites & Asians and around two-thirds of black South Africans are refusing to go. Violence is used (mainly on the latter) to break various protestors but in the chaos, the state can't stop word of this getting out. The MK, ANC, and others in the main rebel alliance hold off under advice from the Soviet Union, while Botha broadcasts from an unknown location into 'white' SA. Plans are being made for an attack, while foreign powers find it impossible to get their nationals out.

The United States ejects the South African ambassador and a mob sacks the embassy; the police allow it to happen, which they will be officially reprimanded over.
 
September 16-17th, 1984: Announcement of majority rebel alliance and affiliated political wings as "South African goerment-in-exile" at 09:00 local time, which is recognised within seconds by the USSR, Cuba, and Angola. (Soviet jets, with Cuban pilots included for optics, are immediately and quietly ordered to African allies) Other African nations follow over the course of the day.

The key event is then 12:20 local time, following hours of propaganda broadcasts primarily aimed at the areas whites are being evacuated from; this is centred around Botha, who condemns the "traitors" for "bringing this great nation to ruin" and calls for "rebellion like the Boers did against previous tyrants". (He is very unhappy it's come to this but this is better than a nuclear war) Sporadic protests, some swiftly turning into riots, spring across the 'abandoned' areas - local rebel militias considered 'unreliable' are told to attack security forces. Operation Deplorable is upended. Faced with orders to use violence, including lethal, against resisters, half the demoralised security forces down arms.

"Exile" forces have been steadily moving small numbers of troops and supplies to the areas where the black population are about to get forced out. At 6:10, the bulk of their forces begin a public march while their advance guard links up with locals and hits strategic targets. The advance guard suffers horrific losses, while the remaining ground-to-air Soviet rockets are used up defending the "frogleap" marching from air attack (which still takes a moderate toll). Radio broadcasts from the "goverment in exile" warn white residents of this battlezone to "evacuate calmly", which gums up roads and prevents regime reinforcements. (Male black residents are told, via different language broadcasts, to assist)

Derby-Smith orders troops to abandon "the traitors" who protested and Botha - along with some loyal white or Jewish communists and two black officers to keep things 'on message' - is rushed into the area, with small number of soldiers, to proclaim this will be a "autonomous soviet" run by locals. (Rebel leadership are divided on what model a future South Africa should be using but in the short term, they want as many white people as possible to think it'll All Be Fine)

In the early hours of the morning, Russian and Cuban-pilot jets enter South African airspace claiming justification under the UN's anti-genocide rules. The Soviets take heavier losses due to their focus on taking out aircrafts that attack rebels; while South Africa technically wins, it means the disputed areas are now almost entirely entire "government in exile" control. At 09:10, the fighting stops as Johannesburg asks for surrender. This is rejected but during the lull, Russian ammunition is being flown in (without it, the rebels would basically collapse at this point). In the regime's remaining territory, over two thousand assumed troublemakers - 90% being black, Asian, or white Jewish - are being executed, while a heavy curfew means only a few hundred at the new border can flee.

This, world leaders know, is the most dangerous point, where Derby-Smith could decide all is lost and go nuclear.
 
December, 1982: ET: The Extra-Terrestrial is released on the Atari 2600, based on the film of the same name. It is received with moderate success and praise.

April 3rd, 1984:
Joe Biden wins the New York primary, with Gary Hart in a close second place.
 
September 18th, 1984: Derby-Lewis plans to have five planes, three with warheads, on a 24/7 patrol around 'safe zones' - while fronting that all five are armed - outside of the ones for maintenance. He believes this will deter anyone. What actually happens is that at 21:00 in Washington DC (03:00 South Africa), a US stealth bomber on a spying mission spots the warheads being moved to AFB Swartkop. Bush is phoned mid-dinner and has to very quickly decide whether to alert the Soviets to attack the base or drop a 10-kiloton setting B61 bomb.

Bush orders it dropped and then immediately informs Moscow of what's about to happen. Swartkop is taken out with half of the country's warheads - the town of Centurion and over 150,000 people are wiped out, and Praetoria and the Gauteng province panic. Derby-Lewis swiftly announces an immediate surrender and then shoots himself for it at 03:49 local time. At 21:36, Americans still watching TV or radio see an emergency broadcast: the President, sounding tired, announcing the "pre-emptive strike" and that the USSR will not be responding in kind.
 
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September 19th, 1984: Glen Syndercombe is rushed into command of the 'Praetoria' forces and the spokesman of the government: the navy is the only branch that hasn't been associated with war crimes and oppression. All 'Praetoria' forces stand down within South Africa and the goverment-in-exile promises to follow the Geneva Convention. (There are quite a few violations, rarely encouraged from above but definitely overlooked) The Soviet foreign minister flies in and 'goverment-in-exile' political and military figures travel with him to Praetoria, with the Irish ambassador as a semi-neutral foreign witness. Initial discussions say that Namibia will be granted independence, the country will reorganise on soviet lines "to allow the dignity and equality of all peoples in South Africa", Johannesburg will be the new capital, and officials will be handed over for war crime trials (Syndercombe wants to reduce the numbers but knows he has to hand over some). More specific haggling will carry on.

Celebrations across South Africa are widespread - the rest of the world is more sombre, even in Africa, and both organised & spontaneous marches against nuclear weapons occur in dozens of countries. Bush's approval ratings fluctuate depending on which poll you look at and many people in the US are edgy.

In the UK, PM Foot and Foreign Secretary Shirley Williams seize the moment and put out feelers to Moscow and Beijing about arms reductions. Moscow, which is quite freaked out by how close things had come to the balloon truly going up, is receptive.
 
September 18th, 1984: Protests in New York City against the use of nuclear weapons in South Africa end in riots, and the arrest of fifteen people, including the organizer of the protests, a volunteer for the New York Public Interest Research Group named Barack Obama. From prison, Obama claims that "he never realized that the protests would turn violent".
 
September 21st, 1984: John Lennon releases his newest album; Pennyroyal Tea. Unlike his two most recent works, this one is in Lennon's words: "A soft, escapist little romp that'll keep me from going anymore insane then I am." In an interview on the Tonight Show, Lennon is asked about how he was inspired to create Pennyroyal Tea. Lennon responds that: "Ya know, I love reading fan letters because a lot of the fans are as passionate about music as I was when I was their age and I received this really nice letter from a lad named Kurt Cobain of Aderdeen, Washington! The boy apparently really liked my stuff and the Beatles' stuff growing up and he all but asked me to write an album about all these song ideas he had. Some of it's pretty wonky stuff, but I don't mind that, since I'm pretty wonky myself! Besides, I'm turning 44 next month and maybe this'll inspire other people to take up the post in a couple years if I get bored again!" Many people take this as a sign that Lennon is intending to retire from music once more, but he does not reveal his intentions.

October 9th, 1984: On Lennon's 44th birthday, his former Beatle bandmate Paul McCartney contacts him on the phone, telling him that he would like to bury the hatchet and at least be friends with Lennon, if not creative partners. Touched by the offer, Lennon accepts, though he offers him a role on his next album if he is interested. McCartney tells him that he will consider, but warns him that George Harrison still isn't very eager to work with, much less see Lennon for quite some time.

October 9th, 1990: John Lennon celebrates his 50th birthday. At this point, he has reunited with his former Beatle bandmates and together, they release a special collaborative album entitled: Fab Four Forever. Utilizing the unused Get Back album cover idea, the four former Beatles stand in the building they stood in for Please, Please Me, while smiling. Lennon allegedly teared up upon gazing at the album cover, showing gratitude that the four did not split apart permanently after the disastrous 1981 benefit concert.
 
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