What if the Yuan dynasty decided to concentrate on developing gun powder weapons to control the large hostile masses of Chinese people with in there empire?
Would the Yuan dynasty be more successful than in OLT?
Gunpowder weapons disporportionally benefit agricultural societies rather than nomadic. This is because the Mongol advantage lay in horse archery, which took years to get proficient at while any farmer can be quickly trained to use firearms. Gun powder weapons were a force multiplier for the less skilled. As the Mongols were completely outnumbered by their Chinese subjects, a gunpowder revolution would and did work against them.
In fact firearms originated in the Song dynasty as a means to counter the Jurchen and Mongol threat. This failed to save the Song, but subsequent advances in firearms would eventually turn the tide. The Yuan dynasty was overthrown by Chinese rebels aided by gunpowder weapons. The early Ming book on firearms, Huolongjing details very sophisticated developments in firearms such as matchlocks during Mongol occupation. The matchlock was likely invented in China to fight Mongols. The same pattern is found on the Russian steppes, where firearms finally allowed the Russians to overthrow the Mongol yolk.
Little wonder then that when another nomadic conqueror, the Manchus ruled China, they placed high priority to increase the reliance of archery in the army in lieu of muskets. The result was in the two hundred years from 1644 the use of firearms in the Chinese army declined from 40% to 20%.