Gulf disaster

Driftless

Donor
The US dodged a very destructive bullet with the New Madrid Earthquakes of 1811-12. The area was comparatively sparsely populated and developed when the quakes hit. If they hit even 50 to 75 years later, the damage and loss of life would have been catastrophic.

Earthquake. Enough said.

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But yes, the New Madrid Fault is basically a ticking time bomb, assuming the theory where the fault was extinct after 1812 and all quakes on the fault since then are merely aftershocks is false. Though I've never heard the Mississippi Delta is vulnerable to quakes as much as Memphis and further north.
(snip)

It would've been better if those quakes had hit then instead of in 1811-1812. The local government would have some clue as to planning for the disaster and most important future disasters as well as the potential for damage quakes can cause. The Eastern United States has a specific geology which amplifies earthquake waves, as seen in the 2008 Illinois earthquake (I was over 150 miles from the earthquake, and felt the ground shaking, and thought it was a dream, and hours later, people were talking about the earthquake), or the 2011 Virginia earthquake. Memphis politicians, corrupt as New South Memphis was, might've planned for it, and hopefully with their influence on the rest of Tennessee dragged Nashville and the rest of the state along with it. Basically, a 7.0 New Madrid quake will cause far more damage over a larger area than an equivalent 7.0 San Andreas quake would cause.

Right now, Memphis, Tennessee has minimal plans regarding a major quake (Nashville has even less, I don't know about other major cities). Few buildings are built to code. The state of Tennessee has people working on it, but it's a small committee which has other jobs (some are college professors in state universities, and they have minimal influence). I'm not sure of the situation in Paducah, St. Louis, or elsewhere in the danger zone. If a quake happened, and the Mississippi River was affected as in 1812 (it ran backwards, formed Realfoot Lake, etc.), West Tennessee would be mostly cut off. The highways (Interstate 40) would be wrecked and in need of repair, as would the back roads, the airports (Memphis as a freight hub would be wrecked) likewise, the Mississippi unnavigable (that will have huge impact on more than just the Lower Mississippi region). I'm pretty sure that Little Rock, St. Louis, Paducah, Nashville, Clarksville, and most major cities near the fault zone will all have significant damage as well and tie up emergency responders. It will be very difficult to get the emergency supplies to where they are needed, and you are dealing with an unprecedented national disaster.

California is relatively well-prepared for this, as bad as "The Big One" would be for that state. I'd rate New Madrid Part 2 as number two on worst disasters to potentially hit the US, right behind 1700 Cascadia Earthquake Part 2 (which has devastating effects both regional and global). Now, since I live in Middle Tennessee (disaster zone), I might be biased, but outside of something like Yellowstone erupting, it's hard to think of a worse disaster which affects such a large region. The effects of this will run into hundreds of billions of dollars in damage.

And while you're at it, have this earthquake strike in February/March, so you're just in time for the South's late winter/spring weather, which includes snow, freezing rain, days of nothing but rain (and mild or worse flooding), severe thunderstorms, and why not have a major tornado outbreak strike the same region, since that's what happens from February to May in the South. You can even have multiple tornado outbreaks strike within a few weeks of each other, since that's how the climate works.

The following point is decidedly a tangent from the original post....

There's a Point-of-departure for an ASB timeline (geologic event). Move the New Madrid Earthquakes to 1862-63, coinciding with the campaigns for the control of the Mississippi during the American Civil War. That's a very pivotal series of battles drawn out over a year. The quake itself would pose issues, but the impact on the river and it's immediate environs, plus the impact on cities in the region would likely change the course of the campaign.
 
This is decidedly a tangent from the original post....

There's a Point-of-departure for an ASB timeline (geologic event). Move the New Madrid Earthquakes to 1862-63, coinciding with the campaigns for the control of the Mississippi during the American Civil War. That's a very pivotal series of battles drawn out over a year. The quake itself would pose issues, but the impact on the river and it's immediate environs, plus the impact on cities in the region would likely change the course of the campaign.

Oh yeah, great chaos. The South gets wrecked hard (probably Vicksburg to the northern border of the CSA, and beyond of course), but in return, the North can't use the Mississippi for a few months at least.
 
Yellowstone going off is pretty much the end of the United States as a nation...

Quoted for truth. It truly is on a different level- like a large asteroid strike. The entire world would be affected.

I live 476 miles (766km) away and the estimates for ashfall here (out of prevailing winds, mind you) are on the order of a foot (~25cm). St Louis would see a centimeter, and the east coast maybe a third of that! Just imagine how much would be injected into the upper atmosphere...

yellowstone-supervolcano-ash-us.jpg
 
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Yellowstone is akin to nuclear winter for the Northern Hemisphere, perhaps triggering another ice age. Perhaps even civilization ending. Thankfully it is a very low probability event.

Having grown up in Galveston County Texas, I actually spoke to elderly survivors of the Great 1900 Storm (which killed a lot of people not only in Galveston but throughout the county). There is a really good monument to it on the Galveston Seawall, although the seawall is even more a monument. A category 5 is no joke on the Texas Gulf Coast at least, as Indianola (where it still around) would attest and are a high probability event.

A major Mississippi Flood (a very wet year in the Plains with some heavy spring rains can do it), particularly if an early (say early June) hurricane or tropical storm came ashore and stalled (and the record for most rain in 24 hours was 45 inches in Alvin Texas as a result of Tropical Storm Claudette coming ashore and stalling) very possibly could trigger a failure of the Old River flood control project. That is a low probability event. (subject to change depending on what actual effects Global Warming has)

A major 9-10 scale is low probability, but a 7 scale quake is running at about 25-40% chance according to this, although I have seen other figures (higher and lower)

http://showme.net/~fkeller/quake/strength.htm

but even that level of quake would knock down all of the all too plentiful unreinforced brick buildings I have seen in Memphis and Saint Louis and the seismic waves on the Valley would be bad news indeed for a lot of medium and small sized towns between the two cities.
 
Jun 30 Cat 5 Hurricane hits Philadelphia
Aug 23 Big One Los Angeles Earthquake 9.2
Aug 25 Cat 3 Hurricane hits New York
Aug 28 Cascadia Earthquake/Tsunami
Dec 06 Great Northern Blizard, Washington/Oregon to New England
Dec 11 New Madrid Earthquake
Dec 18 Southern states ice storm
Mar 29 Southern states tornado outbreak, Oklahoma to Carolina
May 29 Great Midwest flood, Mississippi changes course

Did I cover everybody?

Yellowstone just to catastrophic
 
Alternate 9-11 had 4th plane crash into oil refineries in Philadelphia. Refineries are next to populated city streets. Within a mile or so of Philadelphia Airport, I-95, Delaware River. So huge explosion and fire in densely populated area when children were let out early from school. Interstate closed, airport closed.

What if it hits Three Mile Island?
 
A good sized hunk of space rock impacts in the gulf of Mexico.
Big enough to cause major tsunamis all across the Gulf of Mexico but just below the world wide oh crap threshold.
 

Driftless

Donor
A good sized hunk of space rock impacts in the gulf of Mexico.
Big enough to cause major tsunamis all across the Gulf of Mexico but just below the world wide oh crap threshold.

I don't think you can prepare for something on that scale, but substantial stretches of the gulf coast are not much above current sea level and are so very heavily populated. Compound that condition with rising sea levels and you are looking at a massive loss of life, even from a "small" tsunami.

I believe parts of the Pacific Northwest have developed reality based contingency plans to deal with Tsunami's arising from offshore seismic events - a very real possibility for them.

Where would you even go on the Gulf Coast, with little or no warning of such a catastrophe? I had family that used to stay in the Gulf Shores area of Alabama for part of the winter. There's not that many exits from those barrier islands.
 
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A good sized hunk of space rock impacts in the gulf of Mexico.
Big enough to cause major tsunamis all across the Gulf of Mexico but just below the world wide oh crap threshold.
Given the "right" size, that's a good one. Make it a bit bigger than the Tunguska meteor, and drop it on NOLA.
 
I don't think you can prepare for something on that scale, but substantial stretches of the gulf coast are not much above current sea level and are so very heavily populated. Compound that condition with rising sea levels and you are looking at a massive loss of life, even from a "small" tsunami.

I believe parts of the Pacific Northwest have developed reality based contingency plans to deal with Tsunami's arising from offshore seismic events - a very real possibility for them.

Where would you even go on the Gulf Coast, with little or no warning of such a catastrophe? I had family that used to stay in the Gulf Shores area of Alabama for part of the winter. There's not that many exits from those barrier islands.

Well for one evacuate don't wait until the Weather Channel is using your house to pinpoint the storm. Keep track of where the storm is and it will be. The bigger the storm evacuate soon. Better go then get hit by it. Last but not least have supplies pre bagged for everyone.
 
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