Gulf crisis 1990 : Saddam's asymmetric response

[Johnrankins]

The way I see this going down is Saddam's aim is to boost oil prices and he sends in a covert team as a "terrorist cell" to do the damage. He tries to make sure it is deniable and tries to make it look like it was done by Al Qaeda or some Saudi rebel group. This is the only way it makes sense to me, maybe someone else can come up with another idea.

 

[Monk78]

The way I see this going down is Saddam's aim is to boost oil prices and he sends in a covert team as a "terrorist cell" to do the damage. He tries to make sure it is deniable and tries to make it look like it was done by Al Qaeda or some Saudi rebel group. This is the only way it makes sense to me, maybe someone else can come up with another idea.

Use Palestinian proxies ?

 

[Johnrankins]

Use Palestinian proxies ?

That could work.

 

[ivanotter]

Sadam was already talking to a lot of the Arab League members.

What was his objective?
1) Not to pay Kuwait
2) reverse the insult

Apparently, nobody really liked Kuwait anyway. And Kiwait tended to be rather arrogant and demeaning to Sadam. He put his case forward t the other Arab countries that he had stood up to the non-Arab Iran (Persia!) and now he just asked for lenient terms from Kuwait.

Saudi had paid over some $50 billion, which is a lot - even for Saudi coffers.

Apparanetly Kuwait offered Sadam $500,000 (not millions) payable over vive years with $100,000 per year. Now that is a slap in the face!
Kuwait basically called in their loans. Sadam saw those as donations, so something had to break.

If he had managed to stick to just invading a corner of Kuwait (the areas disputed) he might have got away with it.

The trigger is Saudi. They were not confident about Sadam not also reaching his paws out for a corner of Saudi.

So, if he had stayed the course, shooting the banker when you can't pay, and kept it all as an Arab conflict, he could have managed - for some years.

Saudi pumped oil to sustain their own developments. That messed with the oil price. So they knew Sadam was unhappy about that as well.

So long-term Sadam had a few options:
1) Drag it on for years via resolutions and obfuscations in Arab League and others
2) Start another war against Iran

It might be a bit unrealistic to think that Sadam would just sit quietly and not do anything.

 

[Alanith]

What about KSA and Arab gulf countries will they not try to stop saddam in their own ?

*laughing noises*

Good luck with THAT. If you thought the Iraqis were bad in Iran the KSA would make them look like a WP or NATO tier army.

 

[Monk78]

*laughing noises*

Good luck with THAT. If you thought the Iraqis were bad in Iran the KSA would make them look like a WP or NATO tier army.

Nah
I’ve heard some claims that Saudi pilots will make mince meat out of Iraqi Air Force in 48 hrs given their superb training , then pound the Iraqi army Making the “ highway of death” look like a picnic by comparison

and the Saudi navy will blockade Iraq into submission

once that is done perhaps the Saudi and gulf state armored columns might take Basra holding it until saddam withdraws and pays indemnity

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Nah
I’ve heard some claims that Saudi pilots will make mince meat out of Iraqi Air Force in 48 hrs given their superb training , then pound the Iraqi army

And if you seriously believe that, I have a bridge in Kansas to sell you. “Superb training”, of the people who had to be coached step-by-step into make an air-air kill during the Gulf War by an American AWACS. Positively laughable.

Suffice to say, had the Gulf States militaries been at all up to the task of taking on Iraq, they wouldn’t have so eagerly welcomed the US.

Also, as pointed out, they didn’t like Kuwait enough to go to bat for them over a disputed territory, so they probably would also limit themselves to making disapproving mouth noises at most.

 

[Alanith]

Nah
I’ve heard some claims that Saudi pilots will make mince meat out of Iraqi Air Force in 48 hrs given their superb training , then pound the Iraqi army Making the “ highway of death” look like a picnic by comparison

and the Saudi navy will blockade Iraq into submission

once that is done perhaps the Saudi and gulf state armored columns might take Basra holding it until saddam withdraws and pays indemnity

I can’t tell if you’re serious or not. Who are these claims by, the Saudi’s propaganda machine? The Saudi’s are probably the absolute worst army in the Middle East. Top of the line American gear goes only so far. They had to be coached through every step of the process in making a2a kills in GW1. Those are the people you want leading the charge against Saddams hardened troops and giving him an excuse to invade KSA for reasons of “self defense”. Well if nothing else a world without the house of Saud is certainly a better one.

 

[Monk78]

I can’t tell if you’re serious or not. Who are these claims by, the Saudi’s propaganda machine? The Saudi’s are probably the absolute worst army in the Middle East. Top of the line American gear goes only so far. They had to be coached through every step of the process in making a2a kills in GW1. Those are the people you want leading the charge against Saddams hardened troops and giving him an excuse to invade KSA for reasons of “self defense”. Well if nothing else a world without the house of Saud is certainly a better one.

 

[brooklyn99]

For some strange reason, I'm intrigued about the aptness (or supposed lack thereof) of the Saudi Arabian army around the Gulf War period, yet uneducated on the finer details. Could that be more explained?

If they are as incompetent as many posters ascribe them to be, how would any of you suppose an Iraqi-Saudi conflict would've gone down, after Saddam makes his move on Kuwait and the Saudis (hypothetically) decide to confront him on that while the US (hypothetically) decides to stay out of it, on the sidelines? What do you suppose of the possible results in this scenario?

 

[ivanotter]

From a military perspective it might have been a great idea to invade Saudi. However, Saddam was not looking at purely military objectives. It was all about politics.

Invading Kuwait (with tacit approval by US ambassador - thank you!) could be explained away. It was not a major threat and nobody liked Kuwait. Kuwait invasion was not necessarily a threat to Saudi. And Saddam did not want to be at odds with Saudi rulers.

Invading Saudi would trigger a world response, and I believe Saddam knew this perfectly well. So, intimidate them and threats and things would be fine, but not overstepping the line.

That also negates whether Saudi defense were competent or not. It was all political.

Saddam could have done many things:

1) Pulling out but putting in a new management of Kuwait - his puppets
2) Pin-pricks of Iran, but not into major war - that might unite the Arab world against Iran (and Iran is not Arab).
3) Building other alliances - Syria, etc - appeal to Turkey in NATO
4) Visit Saudi and show how good a Muslim he is - That he tried with Iran after they called him the 'smaller devil' (US being the greater devil). Saddam tightened up Iraq laws, went to Mosque, prayed in public - all to show Iran how good he was - but to no avail). Personal insult to him!

So all short of actual war.