Grover Cleveland Re-elected in 1888

Well one thing for sure, a new president after a Cleveland second term ends in 1893 would very likely have annexed Hawaii. Former American citizens turned disloyal Hawaiian citizens overthrew the Hawaiian monarchy in hopes of being annexed by the United States. American Marines stationed on US warships visiting Pearl Harbor aided in their surrounding of the Royal Palace in Honolulu and arresting and overthrowing Queen Liliuokalani. Cleveland angrily ordered the Marines and Naval personnel back home and demanded the rightful Queen be restored to her throne. Of course, led by Sanford Dole, they instead opted to set up a republic and waited till 1898 when an expansionist president, William McKinley, annexed the islands.

Perhaps American expansion into a World Power may have come earlier than it did in 1898 with the conquests and annexation of such territories as Hawaii, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the Philippines. This assuming Cleveland doesn't run for and win what would then have been an unprecedented third term. (Remember, he won the popular vote in three consecutive elections. (1884,1888, and 1892.)
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Well one thing for sure, a new president after a Cleveland second term ends in 1893 would very likely have annexed Hawaii. Former American citizens turned disloyal Hawaiian citizens overthrew the Hawaiian monarchy in hopes of being annexed by the United States. American Marines stationed on US warships visiting Pearl Harbor aided in their surrounding of the Royal Palace in Honolulu and arresting and overthrowing Queen Liliuokalani. Cleveland angrily ordered the Marines and Naval personnel back home and demanded the rightful Queen be restored to her throne. Of course, led by Sanford Dole, they instead opted to set up a republic and waited till 1898 when an expansionist president, William McKinley, annexed the islands.

Perhaps American expansion into a World Power may have come earlier than it did in 1898 with the conquests and annexation of such territories as Hawaii, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the Philippines. This assuming Cleveland doesn't run for and win what would then have been an unprecedented third term. (Remember, he won the popular vote in three consecutive elections. (1884,1888, and 1892.)
Question--wouldn't the Hawaiian planters prefer to wait until a new, pro-annexation U.S. President is in power in the U.S. before launching their coup in Hawaii? If so, then the 1893 Hawaiian coup could be delayed by either a couple of months or a couple of years in this TL!
 
it may mean President McKinley in 1892 instead of 1896. The public would have been in the mood for a change; there was already dissatisfaction with the economy, though of course not so great as after the Panic of 1893 and ensuing depression. The Republicans would blame all the nation's problems on Cleveland's resistance to higher tariffs.

OTOH, a Republican victory in 1892 is the best possible thing for the Democrats; in OTL, the fact that the Democrats controlled the White House at the time of the 1893-1897 depression wrecked the Democratic Party for a generation. (Note Walter Lippmann's comment in his second book, *Drift and Mastery* [1914]: "I know how bogeys are made. I was a child of four during the panic of '93 and Cleveland has always been a sinister figure to me. His name was muttered with monstrous dread in the household. Then came Bryan, an ogre from the West, and a waiting for the election returns of 1896 with beating heart. And to this day, I find myself with a subtle prejudice against Democrats that goes deeper than what we call political conviction." Of course, Democrats would face a split between gold and silver forces even had the GOP won in 1892; but whichever faction won the Democratic nomination in 1896 would probably win the election and would get credit for the recovery of the late 1890s.)
 
True possibly on the Panic of 1893. However, remember, Cleveland was president once again by 1893 when the Queen was overthrown. The immediate need to get rid of her before she could gain steam in her opposition of the "pro-American Constitution" forced on her late brother King David Kalakua may have led to the hastiness of their actions even though the return of the anti-expansionist Cleveland was back in the White House. Perhaps they hoped he would have considered the acquisition of Hawaii too good an opportunity to not turn it down. He did turn it down.
 
Also, having Cleveland win in 1888 means either no or a delayed "Panic of 1893," correct?

Not necessarily. "Slowing investment in railroads was an additional deflationary influence. Railroad expansion had long been a potent engine of economic growth, ranging from 15 to 20 percent of total national investment in the 1870s and 1880s. Construction was a rough index of railroad investment. The amount of new track laid yearly peaked at 12,984 miles in 1887, after which it fell off steeply. Capital outlays rose through 1891 to provide needed additions to plant and equipment, but the rate of growth could not be sustained. Unsatisfactory earnings and a low return for investors indicated the system was over built and overcapitalized, and reports of mismanagement were common. In 1892, only 44 percent of rail shares outstanding returned dividends, although twice that proportion of bonds paid interest. In the meantime, the completion of trunk lines dried up local capital sources. Political antagonism toward railroads, spurred by the roads’ immense size and power and by real and imagined discrimination against small shippers, made the industry less attractive to investors. Declining growth reduced investment opportunity even as rail securities became less appealing. Capital outlays fell in 1892 despite easy credit during much of the year. The markets for ancillary industries, like iron and steel, felt the impact of falling railroad investment as well; at times in the 1880s rails had accounted for 90 percent of the country’s rolled steel output. In an industry whose expansion had long played a vital role in creating new markets for suppliers, lagging capital expenditures loomed large in the onset of depression.

"European depression was a further source of weakness as 1893 began. Recession struck France in 1889, and business slackened in Germany and England the following year. Contemporaries dated the English downturn from a financial panic in November. Monetary stringency was a base cause of economic hard times. Because specie — gold and silver — was regarded as the only real money, and paper money was available in multiples of the specie supply, when people viewed the future with doubt they stockpiled specie and rejected paper. The availability of specie was limited, so the longer hard times prevailed the more difficult it was for anyone to secure hard money. In addition to monetary stringency, the collapse of extensive speculations in Australian, South African, and Argentine properties; and a sharp break in securities prices marked the advent of severe contraction. The great banking house of Baring and Brothers, caught with excessive holdings of Argentine securities in a falling market, shocked the financial world by suspending business on November 20, 1890. Within a year of the crisis, commercial stagnation had settled over most of Europe. The contraction was severe and long-lived. In England many indices fell to 80 percent of capacity; wholesale prices overall declined nearly 6 percent in two years and had declined 15 percent by 1894. An index of the prices of principal industrial products declined by almost as much. In Germany, contraction lasted three times as long as the average for the period 1879-1902. Not until mid-1895 did Europe begin to revive. Full prosperity returned a year or more later..." https://eh.net/encyclopedia/the-depression-of-1893/

I don't see how having Cleveland in the White House from 1889-93 would negate these factors working for depression.
 
Not necessarily. "Slowing investment in railroads was an additional deflationary influence. Railroad expansion had long been a potent engine of economic growth, ranging from 15 to 20 percent of total national investment in the 1870s and 1880s. Construction was a rough index of railroad investment. The amount of new track laid yearly peaked at 12,984 miles in 1887, after which it fell off steeply. Capital outlays rose through 1891 to provide needed additions to plant and equipment, but the rate of growth could not be sustained. Unsatisfactory earnings and a low return for investors indicated the system was over built and overcapitalized, and reports of mismanagement were common. In 1892, only 44 percent of rail shares outstanding returned dividends, although twice that proportion of bonds paid interest. In the meantime, the completion of trunk lines dried up local capital sources. Political antagonism toward railroads, spurred by the roads’ immense size and power and by real and imagined discrimination against small shippers, made the industry less attractive to investors. Declining growth reduced investment opportunity even as rail securities became less appealing. Capital outlays fell in 1892 despite easy credit during much of the year. The markets for ancillary industries, like iron and steel, felt the impact of falling railroad investment as well; at times in the 1880s rails had accounted for 90 percent of the country’s rolled steel output. In an industry whose expansion had long played a vital role in creating new markets for suppliers, lagging capital expenditures loomed large in the onset of depression.

"European depression was a further source of weakness as 1893 began. Recession struck France in 1889, and business slackened in Germany and England the following year. Contemporaries dated the English downturn from a financial panic in November. Monetary stringency was a base cause of economic hard times. Because specie — gold and silver — was regarded as the only real money, and paper money was available in multiples of the specie supply, when people viewed the future with doubt they stockpiled specie and rejected paper. The availability of specie was limited, so the longer hard times prevailed the more difficult it was for anyone to secure hard money. In addition to monetary stringency, the collapse of extensive speculations in Australian, South African, and Argentine properties; and a sharp break in securities prices marked the advent of severe contraction. The great banking house of Baring and Brothers, caught with excessive holdings of Argentine securities in a falling market, shocked the financial world by suspending business on November 20, 1890. Within a year of the crisis, commercial stagnation had settled over most of Europe. The contraction was severe and long-lived. In England many indices fell to 80 percent of capacity; wholesale prices overall declined nearly 6 percent in two years and had declined 15 percent by 1894. An index of the prices of principal industrial products declined by almost as much. In Germany, contraction lasted three times as long as the average for the period 1879-1902. Not until mid-1895 did Europe begin to revive. Full prosperity returned a year or more later..." https://eh.net/encyclopedia/the-depression-of-1893/

I don't see how having Cleveland in the White House from 1889-93 would negate these factors working for depression.
I guess there is a reason it is called "The Gilded Age."
 

CaliGuy

Banned
it may mean President McKinley in 1892 instead of 1896. The public would have been in the mood for a change; there was already dissatisfaction with the economy, though of course not so great as after the Panic of 1893 and ensuing depression. The Republicans would blame all the nation's problems on Cleveland's resistance to higher tariffs.

OTOH, a Republican victory in 1892 is the best possible thing for the Democrats; in OTL, the fact that the Democrats controlled the White House at the time of the 1893-1897 depression wrecked the Democratic Party for a generation. (Note Walter Lippmann's comment in his second book, *Drift and Mastery* [1914]: "I know how bogeys are made. I was a child of four during the panic of '93 and Cleveland has always been a sinister figure to me. His name was muttered with monstrous dread in the household. Then came Bryan, an ogre from the West, and a waiting for the election returns of 1896 with beating heart. And to this day, I find myself with a subtle prejudice against Democrats that goes deeper than what we call political conviction." Of course, Democrats would face a split between gold and silver forces even had the GOP won in 1892; but whichever faction won the Democratic nomination in 1896 would probably win the election and would get credit for the recovery of the late 1890s.)
Question--couldn't Cleveland oppose bills such as the Sherman Silver Purchase Act and thus either delay or outright prevent the Panic of 1893?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Not necessarily. "Slowing investment in railroads was an additional deflationary influence. Railroad expansion had long been a potent engine of economic growth, ranging from 15 to 20 percent of total national investment in the 1870s and 1880s. Construction was a rough index of railroad investment. The amount of new track laid yearly peaked at 12,984 miles in 1887, after which it fell off steeply. Capital outlays rose through 1891 to provide needed additions to plant and equipment, but the rate of growth could not be sustained. Unsatisfactory earnings and a low return for investors indicated the system was over built and overcapitalized, and reports of mismanagement were common. In 1892, only 44 percent of rail shares outstanding returned dividends, although twice that proportion of bonds paid interest. In the meantime, the completion of trunk lines dried up local capital sources. Political antagonism toward railroads, spurred by the roads’ immense size and power and by real and imagined discrimination against small shippers, made the industry less attractive to investors. Declining growth reduced investment opportunity even as rail securities became less appealing. Capital outlays fell in 1892 despite easy credit during much of the year. The markets for ancillary industries, like iron and steel, felt the impact of falling railroad investment as well; at times in the 1880s rails had accounted for 90 percent of the country’s rolled steel output. In an industry whose expansion had long played a vital role in creating new markets for suppliers, lagging capital expenditures loomed large in the onset of depression.

"European depression was a further source of weakness as 1893 began. Recession struck France in 1889, and business slackened in Germany and England the following year. Contemporaries dated the English downturn from a financial panic in November. Monetary stringency was a base cause of economic hard times. Because specie — gold and silver — was regarded as the only real money, and paper money was available in multiples of the specie supply, when people viewed the future with doubt they stockpiled specie and rejected paper. The availability of specie was limited, so the longer hard times prevailed the more difficult it was for anyone to secure hard money. In addition to monetary stringency, the collapse of extensive speculations in Australian, South African, and Argentine properties; and a sharp break in securities prices marked the advent of severe contraction. The great banking house of Baring and Brothers, caught with excessive holdings of Argentine securities in a falling market, shocked the financial world by suspending business on November 20, 1890. Within a year of the crisis, commercial stagnation had settled over most of Europe. The contraction was severe and long-lived. In England many indices fell to 80 percent of capacity; wholesale prices overall declined nearly 6 percent in two years and had declined 15 percent by 1894. An index of the prices of principal industrial products declined by almost as much. In Germany, contraction lasted three times as long as the average for the period 1879-1902. Not until mid-1895 did Europe begin to revive. Full prosperity returned a year or more later..." https://eh.net/encyclopedia/the-depression-of-1893/

I don't see how having Cleveland in the White House from 1889-93 would negate these factors working for depression.
Thanks for all of this information, David! :D
 
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