Grigory Yavlinsky Wins the Elections in 1996
- Thread starter Sarthak
- Start date
Well 3rd, not 4th, at it is implausible, but don't really think ASB.
Let's see... In real life communists almost won 1996 elections (according to many political scientists they even won, but due to massive fraud and Zyuganov's readiness to reach compromise Yeltsin managed to stay as president for second term). General Lebed was third, running on nationalist ticket. Yavlinsky was only fourth with 7.4% of votes - twice less than Lebed and nationalists. So what would happen if Yavlinsky win (let's suppose that Yeltsin decided not to run himself and heavy used administrative power to fraud elections in favor of his protege)?
Massive discontent and protests, union between communists and nationalists in Duma and possible military coup d'etat with generals Lebed and Lev Rokhlin acting together to overthrow unpopular Yavlinsky. That would happen before NATO campaign in Yugoslavia and before second war in Chechnya, so new red-brown Russia would mostly likely be more aggressive than in OTL
Lebed was not a nationalist, he was an architect of the peace with Chechnya and generally acted as a reasonable strong hand. He had good chances in case Yeltsin would drop from the race after the first tour for some reason.
I agree that Lebed himself was not a nationalist politician. But he played nationalist card. And in 1996 he ran on ticket of Congress of Russian Communities. Which was a left-nationalist movement
What is a plausible POD for someone who only got 7.4% of the vote winning? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Russian_presidential_election#Results
I dunno. It's not ASB, but it's implausible.
Longer 1993 Crisis leading to greater disapprovement of Yeltsin? Zyuganov and Yavlinsky forming coalition like how it was offered OTL?
StirlingSilver
Banned
There were several opinion polls showing Yavlinsky in second leading up to the election. I think folks are forgetting elections aren't predetermined
Exactly. I personally believe Yavlinsky's policies would have been severely helpful to the Russians, his proposed plans were even better than the Communists plan. According to the book I read Russia's Crony Capitalism it said that Zyuganov and Yavlinsky also both considered a coalition government with each other. Perhaps that idea takes root if the polls of the original polls go through?
StirlingSilver
Banned
Probably. Progressives and the Communists don't seem super differentiated in this time, as much of the Communists talking points were watered down
StirlingSilver
Banned
Oh shit, idk lol. I wish I was better educated on the matter. Obviously, the biggest thing would be no Putin, but I think that if Yavlinsky won, it may lead to a period of multiparty democracy in Russia, since they definitely weren't one of the major two parties