Grenadye Alaso!:A Haiti TL
- Thread starter Marcus Licinius Crassus
- Start date
Pretty much this is the issue. However, events in Russia is drastically going to change the calculus of France.
Well I don't want give too much away but Charles X will double down which will lead his downfall. A second French Revolution will happen and be more bloody than the first since he is a hardcore absolute monarchist. So things are going to be messy,messy,messy for France.
Well the US will effected heavily. The war in Haiti and the upcoming Russian revolutionary wars is going to bankrupt France. A second bloodier French Revolution is going to occur. Let us say when the revolutionaries take power they spread the spirit of the Revolution to Spain and Portugal by supporting revolutionaries in those countries.
So that will mean the House of Bourbon entire royalist court flees to Mexico and rules it. Let us say that the House of Bourbon will lead to the economical and military reforms Mexico needs.Cuba and Puerto Rico swears fealty to the Mexican empire. Central America is absorbed to the empire in a bloody proxy war between Gran colombia and the Mexican empire. A stronger,expansionist Mexico with reconquista in the brain. This will scare Haiti and Gran Colombia to be more militaristic. That means they defeat the Tejas revolt,defeat the US in war. Since they are monarchist they will be pro slavery and will ally with the Confederacy and Brazil. This will lead to a system of alliances in the America which will lead to a major conflagration. And let us say Haiti does to the CSA what Cuba did to Angola.
IIRC, it's 1825. At this point, they're not really too concerned about Haiti, so realistically, if they keep at this level, no worries.
But big changes are gonna come very soon to North America.
And let us say Haiti does to the CSA what Cuba did to Angola.
I was rolling my eyes at yet another CSA fantasy but this, this right here seems quite quiche.
Following.
Deleted member 67076
Now this is a fun timeline.
I have to say, you've drastically changed a lot just by killing off Boyer alone. Much of the economic restrictions with landholding and trading came with him IIRC (including the inability for foreigners to own land on Haitian soil, prompting traders to marry into local commercial families) and also the policy of collecting most government revenues through customs duties rather than tax farming. In return, we get a brutal unification war against a foreign power that hammers siege mentality and military rule into the state.
And also you've avoided much of the grievances in the East in one foul swoop through federalism and a reversal of those blatantly idiotic policies put in after 1822. Still one problem that's not been solved yet: The commercial Elite of El Cibao isn't going to be happy if they cannot trade, and the embargoes on Haiti from other nations were a severe issue that needs to be addressed somehow. Without the indemnity of France this should be lessened (and the unification of Gran Colombia kept, therefore creating a new market to sell to), but its still going to be a concern in the mid term.
All this said, I have concerns for the future wellbeing of the state. Mainly debt and decentralization. I have my doubts the Fermage is sustainable in the long run; that sort of forced labor is easily turned into peonage, which tends to decentralize the state as landlords have private armies. These decentralization trends are aided by the geography of the island and the lack of infrastructure. The latter of which is the real roadblock to development. As of this time it takes almost 2 months just to travel from Le Cap to Samana or from Port-Au-Prince to Santo Domingo just on a wagon. Marching soldiers? Even longer. And with the increasing militarization and arming of society, this makes the possibility of regional Caudillos rising a very real threat. Once you have those, bringing them to heel is a massive pain.
The second one is debt. As you said, keeping up a large army is expensive, which requires large amounts of money being made. Same thing with all the money needed to repair the damage from this war and improve infrastructure. Given the economy, this means extraction of commodities, mainly sugar and coffee, but also tobacco, logging and ranching in the east. All of these are subject to massive fluctuations in price over time, and thus aren't steady sources of income, which gives you boom and bust cycles (less so than in Central America due to the economic diversity). I fear the state might have to borrow in order to make up the deficit. Of course, this can be solved by simply just diversifying the economy into other sectors- manufacturing, new crops (if Hispaniola were to somehow get something like Nutmeg or any other east Indian spices that'd be a major source of income), etc.
I have to say, you've drastically changed a lot just by killing off Boyer alone. Much of the economic restrictions with landholding and trading came with him IIRC (including the inability for foreigners to own land on Haitian soil, prompting traders to marry into local commercial families) and also the policy of collecting most government revenues through customs duties rather than tax farming. In return, we get a brutal unification war against a foreign power that hammers siege mentality and military rule into the state.
And also you've avoided much of the grievances in the East in one foul swoop through federalism and a reversal of those blatantly idiotic policies put in after 1822. Still one problem that's not been solved yet: The commercial Elite of El Cibao isn't going to be happy if they cannot trade, and the embargoes on Haiti from other nations were a severe issue that needs to be addressed somehow. Without the indemnity of France this should be lessened (and the unification of Gran Colombia kept, therefore creating a new market to sell to), but its still going to be a concern in the mid term.
All this said, I have concerns for the future wellbeing of the state. Mainly debt and decentralization. I have my doubts the Fermage is sustainable in the long run; that sort of forced labor is easily turned into peonage, which tends to decentralize the state as landlords have private armies. These decentralization trends are aided by the geography of the island and the lack of infrastructure. The latter of which is the real roadblock to development. As of this time it takes almost 2 months just to travel from Le Cap to Samana or from Port-Au-Prince to Santo Domingo just on a wagon. Marching soldiers? Even longer. And with the increasing militarization and arming of society, this makes the possibility of regional Caudillos rising a very real threat. Once you have those, bringing them to heel is a massive pain.
The second one is debt. As you said, keeping up a large army is expensive, which requires large amounts of money being made. Same thing with all the money needed to repair the damage from this war and improve infrastructure. Given the economy, this means extraction of commodities, mainly sugar and coffee, but also tobacco, logging and ranching in the east. All of these are subject to massive fluctuations in price over time, and thus aren't steady sources of income, which gives you boom and bust cycles (less so than in Central America due to the economic diversity). I fear the state might have to borrow in order to make up the deficit. Of course, this can be solved by simply just diversifying the economy into other sectors- manufacturing, new crops (if Hispaniola were to somehow get something like Nutmeg or any other east Indian spices that'd be a major source of income), etc.
True, and depending on how many French troops are sent, the US is going to take a real interest in the place all of a sudden...
Zachariah
Banned
You know, for someone who keeps saying that he doesn't want to give too much away, you've already come out and given an awful lot away. Just try and save a few surprises for us, okay?Well the US will effected heavily. The war in Haiti and the upcoming Russian revolutionary wars is going to bankrupt France. A second bloodier French Revolution is going to occur. Let us say when the revolutionaries take power they spread the spirit of the Revolution to Spain and Portugal by supporting revolutionaries in those countries.
So that will mean the House of Bourbon entire royalist court flees to Mexico and rules it. Let us say that the House of Bourbon will lead to the economical and military reforms Mexico needs.Cuba and Puerto Rico swears fealty to the Mexican empire. Central America is absorbed to the empire in a bloody proxy war between Gran colombia and the Mexican empire. A stronger,expansionist Mexico with reconquista in the brain. This will scare Haiti and Gran Colombia to be more militaristic. That means they defeat the Tejas revolt,defeat the US in war. Since they are monarchist they will be pro slavery and will ally with the Confederacy and Brazil. This will lead to a system of alliances in the America which will lead to a major conflagration. And let us say Haiti does to the CSA what Cuba did to Angola.
Now this is a fun timeline.
I have to say, you've drastically changed a lot just by killing off Boyer alone. Much of the economic restrictions with landholding and trading came with him IIRC (including the inability for foreigners to own land on Haitian soil, prompting traders to marry into local commercial families) and also the policy of collecting most government revenues through customs duties rather than tax farming. In return, we get a brutal unification war against a foreign power that hammers siege mentality and military rule into the state.
And also you've avoided much of the grievances in the East in one foul swoop through federalism and a reversal of those blatantly idiotic policies put in after 1822. Still one problem that's not been solved yet: The commercial Elite of El Cibao isn't going to be happy if they cannot trade, and the embargoes on Haiti from other nations were a severe issue that needs to be addressed somehow. Without the indemnity of France this should be lessened (and the unification of Gran Colombia kept, therefore creating a new market to sell to), but its still going to be a concern in the mid term.
All this said, I have concerns for the future wellbeing of the state. Mainly debt and decentralization. I have my doubts the Fermage is sustainable in the long run; that sort of forced labor is easily turned into peonage, which tends to decentralize the state as landlords have private armies. These decentralization trends are aided by the geography of the island and the lack of infrastructure. The latter of which is the real roadblock to development. As of this time it takes almost 2 months just to travel from Le Cap to Samana or from Port-Au-Prince to Santo Domingo just on a wagon. Marching soldiers? Even longer. And with the increasing militarization and arming of society, this makes the possibility of regional Caudillos rising a very real threat. Once you have those, bringing them to heel is a massive pain.
The second one is debt. As you said, keeping up a large army is expensive, which requires large amounts of money being made. Same thing with all the money needed to repair the damage from this war and improve infrastructure. Given the economy, this means extraction of commodities, mainly sugar and coffee, but also tobacco, logging and ranching in the east. All of these are subject to massive fluctuations in price over time, and thus aren't steady sources of income, which gives you boom and bust cycles (less so than in Central America due to the economic diversity). I fear the state might have to borrow in order to make up the deficit. Of course, this can be solved by simply just diversifying the economy into other sectors- manufacturing, new crops (if Hispaniola were to somehow get something like Nutmeg or any other east Indian spices that'd be a major source of income), etc.
On the trading part that is the reason why I made a unified Gran Colombia. This will create a massive market in which can trade and also other Latin American states like Argentina since an Imperial Mexican nation head by the Spanish royal family will make them fear reconquista. Maybe even trade with Great Britain since they wont be too thrilled with an expansionist Mexican Empire. So the elites in El Cibao will have their fears tempered.
The post war years are going to be very difficult. I will say the first 5 years will see major challenges he will face trying to enforce his rule. That is why he will try to make the fermage system profitable. Maintaining a large army is expensive,rebuilding the infrastructure is going to be expensive. He will also be in support for making roads to connect the various cities to strengthen centralization. I am trying to figure what could come after the fermage system or if he can create a new farming system after the war. In any case Toussaint implementation of the fermage system was working well. Money was slowly entering the treasury and he was slowly rebuilding the infrastructure. It was aborted because of nappy. I'll probably take some ideas you mentioned to diverse the economy. Haiti is an agriculture economy so new crops from the East could be introduced to help it.
And on the issue of the Caudillos there will be men who will try to challenge the rule of Marchand Dessalines. As I said it will not be an easy road for Gueirrier however in the end Haiti will turn out better in the end. Tough choices will be made but being a war hero and having the support of the many generals will help him enforce his will.
Yeah I got carried away. Anyway there will be an update tonight.
Marcus Licinius Crassus has said that Haiti will be more nationalist after the war, and restrictions like that are often a by-product of nationalism so they may exist anyway. On the other hand, Haiti will need a lot of money, so there might be many exceptions, especially for Colombian trading houses.
OTOH, a lot of the postwar military construction will probably involve building roads.
There was a lot of under-the-table trade with Britain during the Christophe monarchy, so this should also be possible under Guerrier, especially if relations between the UK and post-1830 France are tense. Also, I'd expect a lot of indirect trade via Gran Colombia, with Haitian investors owning warehouses in Cartagena where goods can be transferred to Colombian ships and "laundered" with Colombian bills of lading for shipment to Europe and the United States.
If some kind of efficient marketing system for smallholders (e.g. provincial marketing boards) can be established, that would help. Maybe this could begin in the south where Pétion already created a large smallholder class which would resist having their land confiscated and being forced back onto plantations. A possible alternative would be to require them to devote a certain percentage of their land to cash crops and to market the crops through government boards, which would of course take a percentage of the earnings off the top.
Yup Christophe and Toussaint did some trading with the UK with the agreement they wouldn't try to instigate a slave revolt in Jamaica. So with the major changes coming the UK may see Haiti as a trading partner as long they promise to not expand to Jamaica. I like your idea of indirect trade from Haiti to Gran Colombia to markets in Europe and North America by transferring goods in Colombian ships.
And the last point on the fermage/corvee system. It is very doubtful that trying to implement a corvee systems in the south will go smoothly. I like the ideas you presented because it could work having a system where the small landowners would be required to grow cash crops and have it taxed meanwhile they can get a profit from trading. It could work. It could be implemented in the south,while the corvee/fermage system is implemented in the north and East.
Reality Starting to Hit
Reality Starting to Hit.
Fort Drouet
Perrin's campaign: Perrin's force goal was to take Marchand Dessalines. He went on to take the towns of thomzeau, Croix des bouquets, Gantheir and Fond Parisien with little ease. With that, he marched up north. He asked Charles X for reinforcements because they were being slowed down by guerrilla attacks and the outbreak of yelloe fever. Perrin believed opening another front in the East was important because it would divide the Haitian forces. Perrins forces engaged Haitian troops in the battle of Gros Morne. Haitian fighters had the high ground and were bombarding French troops at the bottom. The battle started at 9 am and finished at 11 pm. It was an intense contest. In Perrin's memoirs, he recalled that at that point “No end in sight. The black fighters would not give up or surrender. They made up pay heavily in each engagement. I knew that this war would not end quickly as promised.”
In every engagement, French troops won. French forces took more land but were still harassed by guerrilla forces in jungles and mountains in the countryside. By the end of August French troops control all of the Ouest provinces of Haiti. Perrin then in September believed he needs to take the coastal areas. So he marched west to Archaie which would be a scene of intense fighting. Perrin strategy was simple. Take the coastal areas and starve the fighters of food and supplies. He, of course, thought that the fighters wouldn’t last by January especially with reinforcements inbound.
The battle of Archaie was didnt take place in the city proper but with fort Drouet. Haiti's system of forts slowed down french forces. Fort Drouet was invested for 10 days. September 15-25. 18,740 french forces were engaging 7700 Haitian fighters. Rain in the first three days made it impossible to storm the fort. French forces attempted to storm the fort 6 times each time repelled. Jean Baptise Riche was commanding the men to resist the french fighters. The battle nearly became a fiasco for french fighters because they couldn't take the fort. Finally on September 25th French naval forces bombarded the fort. And french forces storm the fort and a bloody melee ensued. And Haitian forces nearly repealed the assault. Jean Baptist Riche survived the attack and his remaining 3500 men fled to the jungle mountains to continue guerilla operations. The battle cost french forces 1500 deaths and 3400 wounded. French forces took the fort but abandoned because the destruction of the fort made it useless. Perrin after the battle begged Paris for reinforcements. The rate of attrition was not on their side. France loses daily were anywhere from 60-75 a day thanks to yellow fever and guerilla attacks. By November 1825 French casualties were already at 7500 with 9000 wounded. And the french offensive was already slowing down. Reports of Spanish Haitian guerilla fighters crossing the border and harassing French detachments in Mirebalias was reaching Perrin. Perrin was frustrated at the rate the war was going. French forces were taking territory but their supply lines were vulnerable. “This damn island heat is inhospitable. The day after we hear the report of soldiers being ambushed. Wounded or killed. The capital must be taken with all cost to end this damn war!” Perrin changed his strategy of taking coastal areas and focused on marching to Marchand Dessalines the new capital. He rested his forces in in Archaie But Guerrier was preparing for a massive battle when the french forces came.
Charles X of France
Rumblings of Paris: Charles x of France was an ultra conservative french monarch who wanted to bring things back to the ancien regime. The war in Haiti was something he needed. The Pearl of the Antilles was something he wanted back. The post-Bonaparte years put France in a deplorable economic state. Retaking Hispanola and reinstate slavery would enrich the coffers of the french state. His belief was that the reason Napoleon lost the first war was because he was involved in too many foreign entanglements. Charles X was going to focus sometimes obsess about the war effort. When he received word that Perrin needed reinforcement he gladly gave it to him. He ordered a new force of 55,000 to take the Spanish side. The massive force to retake an island disturbed Frenchmen and many were worried that France would vulnerable at home. Others saw the war being a waste of money and resources. The standing army at the time was 300,000. Another thing was the fact he was against liberal secular forces. He was an avid supporter of the concert of Europe. But rumbling started with the massive high casualties of french fighters. The sending of 55,000 French troops to a faraway island was going to be aa major liability on the budget of France. Charles was all in. But it would be his downfall. And events in Russia would change the shape of Europe late in 1825. Charles X needed a victory and wanted to end the war once and for all.
The Dream of Gran Colombia: After the ill-fated Venezuelan Insurrection Simon Bolivar was focusing on fixing the economy of Gran Colombia and also uniting the nation. After the wars of independence, Gran Colombia was economically in bad shape. Simon Bolivar had a lot on his plate but major events aided his popularity.The federalist constitution took the winds out Paez separatist Venezuelan movement. Also, the French invasion of Haiti was seen as a warning sign that European power could once again try to retake their lost colonies. France and Spain were both close allies. France sent an expeditionary force to retake Hispanola. And Spain made no qualms that they want to reconquer all their Spanish colonies. Simon Bolivar ordered the construction of fortifications across the land.With the wars of independence over money was slowly flowing into the treasury of Bogota. Simon Bolivar made war preparation of the eventual invasion from Spain. Little did he knew that the faraway threat of royalist would come closer than he thought. This land reform system brought revenue to the federal govt. With the fund's roads and reconstruction was the policy of the day. Bolivar was more interested in consolidating control of the nation and repairing the economy of the nation. Gran Colombia opened trade with Great Britain and the United States although the Southern States were not comfortable with Gran Colombia's close relationship with Haiti. Bolivar wanted roads to be built from Caracas to Bogota as a way to unite both provinces into one idea. The fear of Spanish Reconquista was real and it kept the nation together. Peru gave Bolivar power but he wanted to focus more on Gran Colombia so he handed power to Jose San Martin to be dictator of Peru. Santander and Bolivar put their differences aside and worked to prepare the nation for war and try to economically repair economy and infrastructure of a nation wracked by conflict. Simon Bolivar wrote to his mistress that "The dream of Gran Colombia is starting to be realized."
Fort Drouet
Perrin's campaign: Perrin's force goal was to take Marchand Dessalines. He went on to take the towns of thomzeau, Croix des bouquets, Gantheir and Fond Parisien with little ease. With that, he marched up north. He asked Charles X for reinforcements because they were being slowed down by guerrilla attacks and the outbreak of yelloe fever. Perrin believed opening another front in the East was important because it would divide the Haitian forces. Perrins forces engaged Haitian troops in the battle of Gros Morne. Haitian fighters had the high ground and were bombarding French troops at the bottom. The battle started at 9 am and finished at 11 pm. It was an intense contest. In Perrin's memoirs, he recalled that at that point “No end in sight. The black fighters would not give up or surrender. They made up pay heavily in each engagement. I knew that this war would not end quickly as promised.”
In every engagement, French troops won. French forces took more land but were still harassed by guerrilla forces in jungles and mountains in the countryside. By the end of August French troops control all of the Ouest provinces of Haiti. Perrin then in September believed he needs to take the coastal areas. So he marched west to Archaie which would be a scene of intense fighting. Perrin strategy was simple. Take the coastal areas and starve the fighters of food and supplies. He, of course, thought that the fighters wouldn’t last by January especially with reinforcements inbound.
The battle of Archaie was didnt take place in the city proper but with fort Drouet. Haiti's system of forts slowed down french forces. Fort Drouet was invested for 10 days. September 15-25. 18,740 french forces were engaging 7700 Haitian fighters. Rain in the first three days made it impossible to storm the fort. French forces attempted to storm the fort 6 times each time repelled. Jean Baptise Riche was commanding the men to resist the french fighters. The battle nearly became a fiasco for french fighters because they couldn't take the fort. Finally on September 25th French naval forces bombarded the fort. And french forces storm the fort and a bloody melee ensued. And Haitian forces nearly repealed the assault. Jean Baptist Riche survived the attack and his remaining 3500 men fled to the jungle mountains to continue guerilla operations. The battle cost french forces 1500 deaths and 3400 wounded. French forces took the fort but abandoned because the destruction of the fort made it useless. Perrin after the battle begged Paris for reinforcements. The rate of attrition was not on their side. France loses daily were anywhere from 60-75 a day thanks to yellow fever and guerilla attacks. By November 1825 French casualties were already at 7500 with 9000 wounded. And the french offensive was already slowing down. Reports of Spanish Haitian guerilla fighters crossing the border and harassing French detachments in Mirebalias was reaching Perrin. Perrin was frustrated at the rate the war was going. French forces were taking territory but their supply lines were vulnerable. “This damn island heat is inhospitable. The day after we hear the report of soldiers being ambushed. Wounded or killed. The capital must be taken with all cost to end this damn war!” Perrin changed his strategy of taking coastal areas and focused on marching to Marchand Dessalines the new capital. He rested his forces in in Archaie But Guerrier was preparing for a massive battle when the french forces came.
Charles X of France
Rumblings of Paris: Charles x of France was an ultra conservative french monarch who wanted to bring things back to the ancien regime. The war in Haiti was something he needed. The Pearl of the Antilles was something he wanted back. The post-Bonaparte years put France in a deplorable economic state. Retaking Hispanola and reinstate slavery would enrich the coffers of the french state. His belief was that the reason Napoleon lost the first war was because he was involved in too many foreign entanglements. Charles X was going to focus sometimes obsess about the war effort. When he received word that Perrin needed reinforcement he gladly gave it to him. He ordered a new force of 55,000 to take the Spanish side. The massive force to retake an island disturbed Frenchmen and many were worried that France would vulnerable at home. Others saw the war being a waste of money and resources. The standing army at the time was 300,000. Another thing was the fact he was against liberal secular forces. He was an avid supporter of the concert of Europe. But rumbling started with the massive high casualties of french fighters. The sending of 55,000 French troops to a faraway island was going to be aa major liability on the budget of France. Charles was all in. But it would be his downfall. And events in Russia would change the shape of Europe late in 1825. Charles X needed a victory and wanted to end the war once and for all.
The Dream of Gran Colombia: After the ill-fated Venezuelan Insurrection Simon Bolivar was focusing on fixing the economy of Gran Colombia and also uniting the nation. After the wars of independence, Gran Colombia was economically in bad shape. Simon Bolivar had a lot on his plate but major events aided his popularity.The federalist constitution took the winds out Paez separatist Venezuelan movement. Also, the French invasion of Haiti was seen as a warning sign that European power could once again try to retake their lost colonies. France and Spain were both close allies. France sent an expeditionary force to retake Hispanola. And Spain made no qualms that they want to reconquer all their Spanish colonies. Simon Bolivar ordered the construction of fortifications across the land.With the wars of independence over money was slowly flowing into the treasury of Bogota. Simon Bolivar made war preparation of the eventual invasion from Spain. Little did he knew that the faraway threat of royalist would come closer than he thought. This land reform system brought revenue to the federal govt. With the fund's roads and reconstruction was the policy of the day. Bolivar was more interested in consolidating control of the nation and repairing the economy of the nation. Gran Colombia opened trade with Great Britain and the United States although the Southern States were not comfortable with Gran Colombia's close relationship with Haiti. Bolivar wanted roads to be built from Caracas to Bogota as a way to unite both provinces into one idea. The fear of Spanish Reconquista was real and it kept the nation together. Peru gave Bolivar power but he wanted to focus more on Gran Colombia so he handed power to Jose San Martin to be dictator of Peru. Santander and Bolivar put their differences aside and worked to prepare the nation for war and try to economically repair economy and infrastructure of a nation wracked by conflict. Simon Bolivar wrote to his mistress that "The dream of Gran Colombia is starting to be realized."
How is the Haitians' ammunition situation by this time? I'd imagine that, without any reliable source of materiel, they'd start raiding French supply trains, which could tie up more troops behind the lines.
Should be easy, find metal, melt it, presto, musket balls.
Gunpowder is the real worry.
A very interesting approach to Haiti (a somewhat forgotten country in this forum). I've read once that the imdemnity Haiti was forced to paid after independence basically ruined the country for whole decades, so a "no payments to France" PoD can indeed allow a better reconstruction of the country.
Not having the debt will be a major benefit - but on the other hand, this Haiti will have suffered yet another destructive, scorched-earth war. Also, I suspect that Charles X will lose the war with bad grace and that there will be no formal peace treaty or recognition of Haitian independence, so Haiti will remain in an international legal limbo some time longer than OTL. What might really make the difference is a better-regulated domestic economy and access to Latin American markets.