Tom Daschle, George Pataki Win Iowa Caucuses, Setting Stage for 2008 Primary Race
January 4, 2008
DES MOINES - Lately every four years it always seems like it’s coming earlier and earlier, and that’s because it is. The week is not even out since America rang in the new year and the presidential campaign season has already officially begun. That’s right, last night the candidates on both sides of the aisle watched intently from their campaign buses and town halls as the Iowa caucuses that officially ring in the presidential primaries rolled in. For many candidates, the result in Iowa can make or break a run for the nomination. On the Democratic side, since 1972 four non-incumbent candidates who won Iowa went on to win the presidential nomination. With the Republicans, it may just be two candidates, but it becomes three if you include Gerald Ford’s difficult primary against Ronald Reagan in 1976, and Reagan came in a close second in Iowa four years later losing to George H. W. Bush by just 2% before he went on to win the nomination. Needless to say, with 2008 being the first year since 1952 where neither the incumbent president or vice president are running for the nomination, all eyes will be on these early primary contests and Iowa as the first is of paramount importance.
For the Democrats, Iowa has been a tough and close competition, largely between four candidates; Hillary Clinton, Tom Daschle, John Edwards, and Barack Obama. This marks an interesting contrast to the national race which has largely seen Senators Obama and Clinton as the only two candidates with realistic chances at the nomination. While Clinton and Obama were both looking to win Iowa, the contest had been close with John Edwards even holding a lead over both for a time. However, the entrance of Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle into the race turned a three way contest into a four way contest. And last night, that contest proved to be very close. The ultimate winner of the Iowa caucus, though, was Senator Daschle. Daschle won with 26.3%. Obama and Clinton did not even come in second, as John Edwards came out of Iowa with 25.7%. Obama and Clinton, the two national front runners, were third and fourth respectively with 23.4% and 22.8%. While the perception of a third and fourth place finish in Iowa may hurt the two front runners in the media, mathematically the result is projected to give all four candidates about the same amount of delegates, give or take one or two. Additionally, because Daschle is from neighboring South Dakota, his victory in Iowa can likely be treated as a favorite son effect similar to Tom Harkin’s Iowa caucus win in 1992. With this in mind, it’s likely that the New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada will be the more influential early Democratic contests.
For the Republicans, Iowa has been a mirror of the national race, seeing a host of leading candidates. At first Rudy Giuliani led for a time in early 2007, then fell as his national star waned and was supplanted by Mitt Romney. However, neither candidate seemed to fit with the rural, religious ethos that is common among the Iowa Republican voter base. In the past, these voters have usually gone for a more conservative candidate, especially one who can talk up their Christian credentials. In 1988, for example, Iowans largely eschewed then Vice President George Bush Sr. for conservative Kansan Bob Dole and televangelist Pat Robertson. That appeared to be the case with the Iowa caucuses again this year, with former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and Tennessee Senator and actor Fred Thompson vying for the top spot in Iowa polling for much of the runup to the caucuses. However, it appears the presence of both Thompson and Huckabee has ended up splitting the religious vote last night. The candidate who was able to take advantage of that split was not Romney, however, but former New York governor George Pataki. Pataki has led a vigorous campaign in Iowa even before his departure from Albany[1], and while his presidential prospects were initially panned, it appears Pataki’s patient persistence has paid off. Pataki has long been known to have a fondness for rural areas, having owned a farm on Lake Champlain since 2003, and this appears to have helped him in Iowa. Pataki emerged from last night’s caucuses with a commanding 36%, while Thompson came second with 28% and Huckabee third with 24%. Pataki will no doubt hope this win in Iowa will boost him in the upcoming New Hampshire contest, where he has been in a close second place but never catching Romney in the polls. Even if not, however, the Iowa win and a second place in New Hampshire would certainly make George Pataki a real contender for the Republican nomination amid a still crowded field.
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Democratic Insider Tom Hayden Leaves PDA to Found Green Political Committee
January 17, 2008
LOS ANGELES - Since 2004, Tom Hayden has been one of the leading members of the political organization the Progressive Democrats of America. The PDA, originally formed as a vehicle to continued the policy advocacy and movements that arose out of the Howard Dean and Dennis Kucinich presidential campaigns, described itself as a group of progressive activists who were intent on promoting the social justice campaigns brought about by those campaigns. Originally founded at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, it included members such as Dean and Kucinich themselves, Representatives John Conyers, Jesse Jackson Jr., and Barbara Lee, and activists and fundraisers like James Zogby and Hayden. However, Hayden announced today that he will be resigning his position on the Progressive Democrats of America board, citing continuing disagreement with the rest of the board direction of the PDA, claiming the PDA has become “too hitched to the Democratic establishment” to bring any real effectiveness.
Hayden has a long history of organization of radical activism that might have precipitated this disagreement with the Progressive Democrats of America. While attending the University of Michigan, Hayden was an initial member of the Students for a Democratic Society (SDS) and Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee (SNCC) organizations that spoke out against the Vietnam War and became some of the largest student organizations in American history. Hayden later became a prominent figure in the emergence of the New Left, including visiting North Vietnam during the 1960s, and was arrested as one of the Chicago Seven charged with crossing state lines to incite a riot at the 1968 Democratic National Convention. Hayden continued to be active in the New Left circles and was married to Jane Fonda from 1973 to their divorce in 1990. He later became more active in politics and was elected to the California state legislature, serving in the state assembly from 1982 to 1992 and the state senate from 1992 to 2000.
Hayden’s announcement itself might come as somewhat of a blow to the Progressive Democrats of America organization, but on its own it would merely be a small setback for the organization. However, Hayden announced he would not just leave the PDA One of the disagreements cited by Hayden was what he claimed was the organization turning away from its initial philosophy of an “inside/outside” movement[2]. The grassroots movement, Hayden said in his statement, clearly showed a surge in the progressive and social justice movements among the Green Party, and Hayden said he gradually found the PDA too resistant to support Green candidates as an “outside” movement in cases where they would be beneficial to progressive aims. As such, Hayden said, he would be forming a new Green focused political action committee in an attempt to revive the movement he was part of when he was younger to promote the radical change he feels is necessary right now.
The new political organization will be called the Movement for a Democratic Society PAC, echoing the original Students for a Democratic Society moniker. Hayden said he was inspired to make the move by the successful gains the Green Party made in California and Maine, and the high profile failings of Democratic candidates such as Eliot Spitzer in the New York gubernatorial race and Phil Angelides’ failed run for California governor. Hayden also had warm things to say about California Green Party chair Peter Camejo, who also cut his teeth on the student activist movements in the 1960s. “Both Peter and I became acquainted with radical leaders including Jerry Rubin, and we share a feeling that it is time for that spirit to arise again in this country,” Hayden said[3]. It is unknown at this time if there is any coordination with the new SDS revival that began two years ago, but the success of the new SDS and the Movement for a Democratic Society[4] will likely rest on whether it can overcome the internal divisions that plagued the original SDS. Hayden’s move to form a formal political organization already shows signs of learning from the past mistakes.
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Former Green Chair Rankles Leadership With Fusion Proposal For California
January 22, 2008
SANTA MONICA, CA - By now it is widely acknowledged that the Green Party has somewhat shaken up the political makeup of parts of the country, and while these areas remain focused at a local level, a couple examples certainly stand out. Most notable for California has been the Congressional election in the state’s 11th district in 2006, where Pete McCloskey came in second place running as a Green, finishing just ahead of the Democrat and about evenly splitting the vote to let Republican Congressman Richard Pombo return to the House with less than 45 percent of the vote. McCloskey’s high profile run for Congress and this margin has sparked some in California to begin pushing for electoral reform in the state.
State senator Abel Maldonado, a moderate Republican, has surprisingly leapt into the reform discussion early to become one of its biggest proponents. Maldonado appears to have taken the idea of a nonpartisan blanket primary as a sort of pet project, attempting to build up support from both other Republicans and across the aisle from Democrats to put a blanket or “top two” primary on the ballot in November. There does appear to be some support for such an initiative, as a similar one was on the ballot four years ago. While over 52 percent of Californians voted in favor of Proposition 62 in 2004, it was superseded by a conflicting initiative that received more votes. While that bodes well for Maldonado’s efforts, a blanket primary proposition still has to gather the signatures to get on the ballot in the first place.
Additionally, Maldonado is not the only one spearheading a movement for reforming California’s electoral system. The Green Party has their own proposal on how to resolve the unusual situation in California’s 11th district and others like it that have cropped up at a more local level. Or a section of the Green Party does, anyway. Former Chair of the California Green Party Mike Feinstein, who served as mayor of Santa Monica for one term from 2000 to 2002, has begun drafting a ballot proposition that would establish electoral fusion in California[5]. Electoral fusion allows multiple parties to nominate the same candidate with all nominating parties being listed on the ballot, and the candidate, not the party, that receives the most votes on the ballot wins. The concept has history in California. Notably in 1946, governor Earl Warren received both the Republican and Democratic nominations as well as the Progressive nomination for governor, and won reelection with over 90 percent of the vote. Mike Feinstein wants to bring that spirit back to the Golden State. In an interview about the idea, Feinstein said “if you look at the Working Families and Conservative parties in New York, they have established key voter bases and have been able to wield a huge amount of influence over the major parties.” Feinstein argued fusion allows smaller parties to sway platforms and candidate nominations with the threat of pulling a nomination and costing a major party nominee an election.
However, Feinstein’s support for electoral fusion has its critics in the Green Party, as does Feinstein himself. The fusion proposal appears to have made Feinstein butt heads with current California Green Party chair Peter Camejo and his supporters within the party organization. Camejo responded to the proposal by calling it “capitulation to the pro-corporate Democratic Party,” and that it “would throw away all the progress the Green Party has made in asserting itself as an independent organization of the left separate from the duopoly.” Camejo even went so far as to question Feinstein’s motives, lamenting “how far to the right” Feinstein had become and wondered if there was some involvement from the Democratic Party itself behind it[6]. Feinstein has previously been the subject of a corruption investigation when in 2003 during his time on the Santa Monica city council Feinstein was accused by the LA County Green Party of misappropriation of $30,000 worth of campaign funds. Camejo did not bring up this instance, but moved back into his practiced talking point, reiterating that “fusion will completely undermine the strength and voter base we’ve created and the successful work our committed party members have put in for nearly a decade.”
These proposals of electoral reform both still need to gather the signatures to appear on the ballot in November, and will no doubt be joined by others as the petitioning period continues from now until May. Already other measures are also gathering steam, such as an initiative which would ban same sex marriage in anticipation of a ruling on the case In re marriage cases in May. On the subject of the fusion ballot initiative, it has certainly strained internal relations among the California Green Party and could cause a rift between supporters of Camejo and Feinstein if it continues to build. That could all depend on if the fusion initiative makes the ballot in November.
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Super Tuesday Contests Start to Give Clearer Picture of How Nomination Races Stand
February 5, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO - The 2008 presidential campaign is at last in full swing. Now that we have entered the beginning of February, that means the primaries for the presidential nominations are fully underway. And most of all, the first Tuesday in February, which means good news for all the election junkies: Super Tuesday has arrived! We were all waiting for today, as California’s Pete McCloskey and Georgia’s Cynthia McKinney quickly emerged as the two front runners for the presidential nomination, but with scant polling it was difficult to get any real sense of who was leading. The Florida contest on the first of the month gave Cynthia McKinney the first win of the primary and 9 of the state’s 16 delegates.
For Super Tuesday, arguably the biggest day of the primary season, six states held their primaries. While McKinney and McCloskey were highly favored to be the main competitors for delegates and win most of the states, one state stood out from the pack. In West Virginia’s primary, favorite son Jesse Johnson, who last year oversaw the affiliation of West Virginia’s Mountain Party with the national Green Party organization, won 6 of the state’s 8 convention delegates[7]. However, aside from West Virginia, the other five contests went more predictably with McCloskey and McKinney taking away all but a few trappings of delegates and a few more uncommitted. McKinney won the primaries in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Illinois. McKinney is notable for winning all 8 of Mississippi’s delegates, however Arkansas and Illinois were each won by less than fifty percent and McCloskey made decent showings in both states. McCloskey won the Massachusetts primary, taking 17 of the state’s 32 delegates, while McKinney received 9 with the rest of the delegates going to other candidates or uncommitted.
However, the largest and most important primary of Super Tuesday was certainly the California primary. Over 2,000 voters participated in each of the Illinois and Massachusetts primaries, but with California having by far the largest number of registered Greens, there was no doubt it would again have the largest turnout and the most delegates. In fact, it set a record for the largest participation in a Green primary at a grand total of over 36,000 votes[8]. The California primary also had 176 delegates up for grabs, or over a fifth of the 836 total convention delegates. This made it a priority for both McCloskey and McKinney. While McKinney appealed to the California Green Party’s recent direction of reaching out to black voters, it seems McCloskey’s home field advantage carried the day. Pete McCloskey won 111 of California’s delegates, which combined with the other wins, especially in Massachusetts, already puts him a long way toward the majority of delegates. Cynthia McKinney didn’t fare too badly, garnering 50 delegates from California. The other Californian in the running, Kent Mesplay, won 6 delegates, though Mesplay had already suspended his campaign to focus on his duties on the San Diego city council and will likely drop out soon. Jesse Johnson for his part had 3 delegates, tying with Kat Swift, with the rest going to other candidates[9]. While there are many states left in the Green primary, California was by far the most anticipated and now McCloskey has gained a significant advantage over McKinney in the race for the nomination, though it is far from assured and he still needs to win most of the remaining contests if he wants to clinch the nomination.
The Super Tuesday races for the other parties’ primary contests were also held today, and produced some interesting results. Senator Tom Daschle won his home state of South Dakota and two districts in the Minnesota caucuses. Hillary Clinton won a majority of the Super Tuesday states, however, giving her a slight edge over Obama and lessening the blow of Obama’s landslide win in South Carolina. In the race to succeed President Bush, Mike Huckabee won most of the contests in the South except for Fred Thompson’s home state of Tennessee. The rest of the Super Tuesday contests were split between George Pataki and Mitt Romney, including a surprise win by Pataki in Missouri over Huckabee, while Romney was favored more in Western states such as Arizona, Utah, and Colorado. With the Super Tuesday results, Huckabee’s support seems to be limited to the South, and it appears Pataki may be pulling ahead of Romney outside of Romney’s core support bases in New England and the Mountain West. The upcoming contests, especially those in Kansas and Virginia, could be crucial to determining if Pataki can maintain the momentum he has built from Super Tuesday or if either Romney or Huckabee can still attract enough support nationwide.
[1] I present to you 2006 Chris Cillizza talking about Pataki's "Iowa mojo":
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/eye-on-2008/patakis-iowa-mojo.html
[2] The inside/outside philosophy of the PDA was intended to work to change the Democratic Party from within in a more progressive direction and work with other non-affiliated progressive movements to help elect progressive Democrats to office. But ITTL with the Green Party sucking up some of that progressive oxygen, there is both more resistance within the party and more resistance to working with outside organizations with fear they will just turn around and support Green candidates.
[3] I can't find any sources on whether Camejo and Hayden ever crossed paths during the 60s student movements, but they had mutual acquaintances at the time so it's possible, and ITTL they definitely are meeting a few times before Hayden's departure from the PDA.
[4] The
new revived incarnation of the Students for a Democratic Society was an actual attempted revival by high school and college students in 2006 and worked with members of the original movement to get it off the ground. It eventually merged with Occupy.
[5] Mike Feinstein at least at the time was a supporter of fusion balloting as a way to get the Greens more visibility by cross-endorsing Democratic candidates.
[6] The "how far to the right" line is straight from Camejo's
North Star: A Memoir where he is briefly talking about his falling out with Feinstein over fusion balloting. As a staunch Green, Camejo did feel that cross-endorsement was essentially capitulation to the Democrats.
[7] Jesse Johnson did win the West Virginia primary as essentially a favorite son in OTL, but the Green primary in 2008 was on April 27.
[8] To give you a sense of how much of an increase this is, the OTL totals for the 2008 primaries were 1,513 votes in Illinois, 744 in Massachusetts, and 21,726 in California.
[9] OTL California had 168 delegates to the 2008 convention and were distributed as follows: Ralph Nader 102, Cynthia McKinney 45, Elaine Brown 7, Kat Swift 5, Kent Mesplay 3, Jesse Johnson 3, Jared Ball 3. Yep, Nader still won the California primary by a landslide despite not even running.
Also keep in mind that the new SDS in OTL got folded into the Occupy movement...