Green Party's David Cobb wins 2008 Texas Senate seat?

Wouldn't Friedman split the left-wing vote?

Not entirely. He has some positions (pro gun and pro school prayer, border security) that would appeal to socons and others (legal weed, death penalty moratorium, alternate energy) that would appeal to liberals.
 
Okay, here's a scenario:

In a fluke result, Cobb defeats Barbara Ann Radnofsky in the 2006 Senate Democratic primaries. Meanwhile, Hutchison decides to challenge Perry for the Governor's mansion, and her handpicked successor Florence Shapiro goes down fighting radio host Dan Patrick. Some moderate Republican (Jeff Wentworth? Carole Keeton Strayhorn's eyes were pretty clearly fixed on Perry, but otherwise she'd be good) runs against him as an independent. Cobb runs a moderate campaign and turns Patrick's charges of "extremism" against him. He wins by something like 40-39-21, with the moderate picking up the rear.

...Yeah, I still don't really buy it.

Dan Patrick the sports guy? He does not have connections to Texas and also guy does not strike me as a arch conservative
 
Not entirely. He has some positions (pro gun and pro school prayer, border security) that would appeal to socons and others (legal weed, death penalty moratorium, alternate energy) that would appeal to liberals.
In 2006, his votes basically came from two places - rural conservatives in West and Central Texas and urban progressives unconvinced by Bell and wanting a protest vote.
 
And does it matter to everyone's answers that if we took surveys:

1) Should the United States have single-payer health care like Canada?

2) Do you believe corporations currently have too much power in America?

The answers among the general public are surprisingly progressive, even in a red state like Texas.

Yeah, but what is he going to say when it comes to energy and the economy? Chances are that it'd make Texans red (as in, Republican) in the face.
 
ann_richards.jpg

I think Gov. Ann Richards, who was elected in 1990, was the last state-wide Democrat to win in Texas. And she defeated Clayton Williams, who was kind of a Trump-esque businessman.
 
BTW, isn't it likely that Cobb, not being Hispanic, would lose some of the Hispanic votes that Rick Noriega got in 2008 in OTL? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_2008 (And Noriega, let us remember, lost by thirteen percentage points, so Cobb has to do much more than just "make up" for those lost Hispanic votes elsewhere...)

Once again, remember: John McCain got 55.3% of the vote in Texas in 2008 at a time he was getting 45.7% nationwide.
 
Yeah, but what is he going to say when it comes to energy and the economy? Chances are that it'd make Texans red (as in, Republican) in the face.
Yes, that's part of the challenge, and that's what makes it fun! :)

DC could advocate also investing it new energy as part as remaining a vibrant energy economy, and Texas right now in 2017 does have significant generation from wind power.

He would have to advocate the specific proposals which resonate with a good chunk of the voting public. This isn't quite luck, but neither is it entirely knowable.
 
Yes, that's part of the challenge, and that's what makes it fun! :)

DC could advocate also investing it new energy as part as remaining a vibrant energy economy, and Texas right now in 2017 does have significant generation from wind power.

He would have to advocate the specific proposals which resonate with a good chunk of the voting public. This isn't quite luck, but neither is it entirely knowable.

That's true, but in 2008 much of Texas's wind and solar generation has yet to come online, and much of it is concentrated in the more sparsely populated western parts of Texas. There are simply more votes to be gotten by being a pro-oil/gas/coal or pro-all-of-the-above candidate.

That being said, it was Rick Perry who, in 2005, approved funding to construct transmission lines from West TX wind plants to the cities further east. That, IMO, could work for Cobb or against him.

I think the number one issue with Cobb's candidacy, regardless of what policy proposals he advocates and how he presents them to voters (I think you are right that there is a way to sell green(-lite?) policies to right-of-center voters) is that he is not a Republican. Texas has only briefly been a red state, but it has already become firmly aligned--on a cultural level-- with the Republican Party. That, in my opinion--and forgive me for veering briefly into current politics--is why Texas remained Republican by a great margin in the 2016 election, even when Donald Trump was a candidate uniquely ill-suited to the political terrain of Texas.
 
That's true, but in 2008 much of Texas's wind and solar generation has yet to come online, and much of it is concentrated in the more sparsely populated western parts of Texas. There are simply more votes to be gotten by being a pro-oil/gas/coal or pro-all-of-the-above candidate.

That being said, it was Rick Perry who, in 2005, approved funding to construct transmission lines from West TX wind plants to the cities further east. That, IMO, could work for Cobb or against him.

I think the number one issue with Cobb's candidacy, regardless of what policy proposals he advocates and how he presents them to voters (I think you are right that there is a way to sell green(-lite?) policies to right-of-center voters) is that he is not a Republican. Texas has only briefly been a red state, but it has already become firmly aligned--on a cultural level-- with the Republican Party. That, in my opinion--and forgive me for veering briefly into current politics--is why Texas remained Republican by a great margin in the 2016 election, even when Donald Trump was a candidate uniquely ill-suited to the political terrain of Texas.
I agree that Texas is a very red state, but I would also say that Texas, by its nature, tends to splinter its ruling party into factions. It happened with the Democrats, and it happened with the Republicans - look at the 2006 gubernatorial election, or the Speaker race between Straus and Craddick in '09, or the modern fights between Patrick and Straus. If Cobb can take advantage of that - as Chris Bell was nearly able to in 2006 - he has a shot.
 
. . . is that he is not a Republican. Texas has only briefly been a red state, but it has already become firmly aligned--on a cultural level-- with the Republican Party. . .
I would argue that the loud mouths in Texas politics are more anti-liberal than they are pro-conservative.

And most citizens are nonpolitical and tend to be suspicious of all politicians. This is where the psychology runs deep. And there may be a way to arc across this terrain in a successful fashion.
 

If Dave does win the seat for Texas Senator in 2008 . . .

And something we very seldom talk about here on Alternate History, let's assume DC is excellent on constituent services and his background as a leftie activist very much plays to strength. First and foremost, he knows not to over-promise. For example, if a Texas citizen believes they have been wrongly turned down for Social Security disability and contacts the office of Senator Cobb, they will be told, Okay, We can look at some of the facts of your case and if it looks like you have a pretty good case, we can ask Social Security to please give it a second look, but that's all we can do.

But the difference is, Dave's staffers really will follow through and really will return phone calls. And that by itself is enough to get some buzz going when he seeks re-election in 2014.
 
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http://www.houstonchronicle.com/denied/1/

' . . . Over a decade ago, the officials [in Texas] arbitrarily decided what percentage of students should get special education services — 8.5 percent — and since then they have forced school districts to comply by strictly auditing those serving too many kids.

'Their efforts, which started in 2004 but have never been publicly announced or explained, have saved the Texas Education Agency billions of dollars but denied vital supports to children with autism, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, dyslexia, epilepsy, mental illnesses, speech impediments, traumatic brain injuries, even blindness and deafness, a Houston Chronicle investigation has found. . . '

' . . . plummeted from near the national average of 13 percent to the lowest in the country. . . '
The office of Senator Cobb could help break this story before the Houston Chronicle did, just by having a staff good at talking with people instead of brushing them off [fobbing them off I think is the UK term].

The fact that this is done quietly even secretly by education officials in Texas makes it even more egregious. All the same, instead of blowing a gasket and blood and thunder, it seems like the coin of the realm for effective activism is to slightly understate your case and build your case step by step.
 


"Bernie fights for veterans. He fights for seniors."

Before he became famous, that's what two Vermonters who like Bernie told me about him. A third Vermonter who didn't like Bernie talked about him being on the left wing. Meaning, strength and the extent to which a person is perceived as a fighter is a whole other dimension, which may not have a whole heck of a lot to do with political ideology. Or, ideology may be the fallback position when you already don't like a person.

And yes, I realize that Texas is a tougher market than Vermont! :) That's part of the challenge of it, but I do think some of the same dynamics could play out.
 
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youtube: Green Party 2004 Convention - David Cobb acceptance speech

Green Party National Convention, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, June 25-27, 2004. Please notice that it's held in an embarrassingly regular and mediocre-sized hotel banquet room. The Green Party split that year between Cobb supporters and Nader supporters.

In our wildest dreams, is there 1 chance out of 5 Cobb could tack back to the center and win the 2008 Texas seat? Probably not, but let's have some fun and dream just a little.
 
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. . . He wins by something like 40-39-21, with the moderate picking up the rear.

...Yeah, I still don't really buy it.
Jesse Ventura won the Governor's office in Minnesota in 1998 with 37%. That is, he won with a plurality.

I do not know what the election laws are in Texas regarding plurality vs. run-off. Any help would be appreciated. :)
 
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Jesse Ventura won the Governor's office in Minnesota in 1998 with 37%. That is, he won with a plurality.

I do not know what the election laws are in Texas regarding plurality vs. run-off. Any help would be appreciated. :)
Outside of special elections, it's all plurality.
 
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