Greek-Turkish war over Cyprus 1974

More likely than not, the Turks would have been able to defeat the Greeks militarily. The Greek junta falls apart, with Greece falling into internal turmoil, which the Communists are likely to try and take advantage of. The Turks occupy the entirety of Cyprus, much of the West tries to get them to withdraw with guarantees for both the Greek and Turkish communities. This might go well, or maybe not. There will definitely be some excesses against the Greek population, particularly by Turkish ultranationalist volunteers.

NATO would be in an extremely difficult position. There is no precedent for this historically, so we can't be sure. But I would say that Greece's membership in NATO would be suspended (although they would make it clear that they would still oppose foreign, read WarPac, aggression against Greece. Maybe Turkey's too.

The Soviet Union would do very little, except try to exploit the situation to break as much off of NATO as possible. But this is a classic "enemies bleeding each other white" scenario. They'll be doing shots in the Kremlin all night.
 
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