Greece wins in turkey

Turkey probably attacks Greece to reclaim its lost territories in 1939-40, while the Western powers are preoccupied with the war. Greece loses, probably as badly as Finland ultimately did; their opponent is more competent than the Soviets of 1939-40, far more motivated, and the Greeks are going to have to keep at least some of the military to guard against Bulgarian revanchism and an opportunistic land-grab by Italy.

Post-war, unless the Turks are stupid enough to join the Axis (highly unlikely), they keep their gains, because the Allies really won't care about Greek losses to a non-Axis nation. If the Turks are particularly adroit in their timing when they join the Allies, they might even be able to grab the Dodecanese from the Italians.

So, you say that between 1941 (more likely 1942) and 1945 Turkey attacks again and Greece evacuates Ionia? That's too hard my friend ITTL.

1st. Because the Greek military and the fortifications of Ionia are not easy to overrun, especially with a strong airforce. Remember also the the Greeks are now much more experienced in modern warfare than the Turks.

2bd. Because Greece does not need to keep that much army in Albania and Bulgaria. In Albania because the Italians after the armistice will definately move a large part of their army to Northern Africa and Eastern Front, and Bulgaria because Yugoslavia watches Sofia, too.

3rd. Because the British are not going to accept anyone fooling around the Straits, especially after the Soviet counterattack. Greece has proven to serve the western interests in the region, after turning down the Italian Ultimatum, which included the term of Italian troops stationing in Eastern Thrace. Also, note that unlikely 1920, now the British are fully mobilised and more keen to use force, and unlikely 1941, the British can spare some aircraft to support the Greeks, while having suppressed the Iraqi revolt, they can move to the Turkish border stirring up the Kurds, too. Remember, that with or without Greece getting directly involved in the war agains Germany, the large Greek merchant fleet contributes in the North Atlantic convoys, like IOTL.

4th. The Soviets are not going to accept troubles around the Straits, too. Firstly, they do not like Turkey that much anymore, are she proven she 's not a potential socialist "comrade" as she was in early 1920's. Secondly because in the event of Soviet support for the Turks or mere neutrality, there's a chance that the westerners controling the Straits and providing equipment to the USSR start to have some trouble with the transportations.

Hence, with no German attack on Greece, there's not Turkish aqcuisition of Ionia. On the other hand, after the war Greece surely gets the Dodecanese and probably Cyprus, provided that Greece supports Israel (the Greek Israelite community stays intact and plays its role in that), accepts large British bases on the island and accepts significant rights to the Turkish-Cypriot community.

The problem rising of the Greek and Yugoslavian neutrality has two aspects:

1. Are the additional forces available for the Axis (not having to guard the Balkans) able to make a difference in the Eastern Front?

2. If the Eastern Front goes as IOTL, does the fact the the Soviets don't engange a column in the Balkans in 1944 mean that they move faster westwards?
 

Esopo

Banned
Also, if Italy is going to capitulate in 1943, what will be the future of Albania? The Greeks can easily annex Northern Epirus, while the Yugoslavs are likely to move in the Scodra area anyway...

The allies wont tolerate violations of national sovereignity of a country victim of the axis after world war two. Not by greece, anyway.
 

Esopo

Banned
all right, then

Do you people think there's a chance Hitler accepts the Greek apeals (like those in OTL, which he turned down) and accepts the Greek (and Yugoslav) neutrality, and enforcing an armistice to Musolini?

It's actually the question I made before: can Hitler afford neutral but pro-British Yugoslavia and Greece when he launches Barbarossa?

No, there is not way of that happening. Hitler was obsessed with the balkans's security because of the oilfields of ploesti and wont tolerate a pro british state in the region.
 
Turkey probably attacks Greece to reclaim its lost territories in 1939-40, while the Western powers are preoccupied with the war. Greece loses, probably as badly as Finland ultimately did; their opponent is more competent than the Soviets of 1939-40, far more motivated, and the Greeks are going to have to keep at least some of the military to guard against Bulgarian revanchism and an opportunistic land-grab by Italy.

Post-war, unless the Turks are stupid enough to join the Axis (highly unlikely), they keep their gains, because the Allies really won't care about Greek losses to a non-Axis nation. If the Turks are particularly adroit in their timing when they join the Allies, they might even be able to grab the Dodecanese from the Italians.

The Turks would have to be wizards at diplomacy to avoid being seen as co-belligerents with the Italians. If they attack before the Italians there is no guarantee that they would win. If they attack after Italy attacks Greece then Greece and UK are allied so they are screwed.

If they attack and then Italy attacks shortly after there will be a diplomatic stink and the UK will defend Smyrna (probably in preference to Crete) in the last resort
 
a possible post war map

europe1945.png
 
What about Constantinople and Gallipoli? I doubt the British would care about guarding it. Although the soviets could take it or Greece can, if it's a puppet.
 
What about Constantinople and Gallipoli? I doubt the British would care about guarding it. Although the soviets could take it or Greece can, if it's a puppet.

Sorry, I lost you...

Against who shall the British defend the Straits? Germans before 1945? I thought we concluded that it's unlikely Hitler to invade Greece, if Greece is to maintain neutrality...
 
Sorry, I lost you...

Against who shall the British defend the Straits? Germans before 1945? I thought we concluded that it's unlikely Hitler to invade Greece, if Greece is to maintain neutrality...

You lost me:D.

But who would get the straits afterwards though? I doubt it would stay under whoever's protection before the war.
 
IOTL there was not a real Internationally Controled Straits State, but with Greece winning in Anatolia, things would develop differently.

I imagine something like this:

The International Straits Region was introduced in 1923, with the treaty of peace between Entente+Greece and Kemal's Turkey.

  • This Region is not a state, since, it has no army, no currency, no sovereign govenment and no diplomacy.
  • The security of the Region is to be maintained by the Entente (UK-France-Italy) with Greece bound with a pact to provide any assistance asked. So, there's an international brigade in guard of certain fortified positions in the Bosporus, the Dardanelles and Constantinople itself.
  • The Police is a mixture of local personel (with representation of the millets, according to their population) and policemen from the Entente countries. The Directorate of the Police is occupied by a British, a French and an Italian, rotating every six months.
  • The Central Bank of the Region is to be controlled by a Board, in which participate the UK, Grance, Italy, and representatives of the millets. The Director of the Bank is a British, a French or an Italian in 1 year's rotation period.
  • The administration of the Region is maintained by a Counsil of 100 seats, in which the millets are represented according to their population. This Counsil elects an administrative comittee consisted of 1 counsellor of each millet. The Administrative Commitee and three representatives of the Entente countries form the Board of Administration.

later on, maybe from 1926, the US, Greece, Romania and maybe later Bulgaria, are granded the right to have observers in the administrative bodies of the Region, with no voting rights, but with the promise of that clause could be revised in a few years.
 
IOTL there was not a real Internationally Controled Straits State, but with Greece winning in Anatolia, things would develop differently.

I imagine something like this:

The International Straits Region was introduced in 1923, with the treaty of peace between Entente+Greece and Kemal's Turkey.

  • This Region is not a state, since, it has no army, no currency, no sovereign govenment and no diplomacy.
  • The security of the Region is to be maintained by the Entente (UK-France-Italy) with Greece bound with a pact to provide any assistance asked. So, there's an international brigade in guard of certain fortified positions in the Bosporus, the Dardanelles and Constantinople itself.
  • The Police is a mixture of local personel (with representation of the millets, according to their population) and policemen from the Entente countries. The Directorate of the Police is occupied by a British, a French and an Italian, rotating every six months.
  • The Central Bank of the Region is to be controlled by a Board, in which participate the UK, Grance, Italy, and representatives of the millets. The Director of the Bank is a British, a French or an Italian in 1 year's rotation period.
  • The administration of the Region is maintained by a Counsil of 100 seats, in which the millets are represented according to their population. This Counsil elects an administrative comittee consisted of 1 counsellor of each millet. The Administrative Commitee and three representatives of the Entente countries form the Board of Administration.
later on, maybe from 1926, the US, Greece, Romania and maybe later Bulgaria, are granded the right to have observers in the administrative bodies of the Region, with no voting rights, but with the promise of that clause could be revised in a few years.

Better yet, why not let Greece patrol the entire thing? I think it is want they want, while letting the other powers do their own thing.
 
Better yet, why not let Greece patrol the entire thing? I think it is want they want, while letting the other powers do their own thing.

not from the beggining, but there's a good chance for this to happen after WWII, with the three Powers of former Entente being replaced by a UN comittee.
 
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