Steve, I just don't see it happening.
Feel free to post a timeline covering the events.
Logistics are going to be a major issue, IMHO and the Axis is going to try something anyway to stop the Italians from collapsing (not that they will succeed, but they would still keep the British busy for a while).
As I said, I don't see a chance of getting N. Africa sweeped clean by the end of 1941 and having time to redistribute forces to the Far East.
MUC
See
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=89004. This is the 1st version and unfortunately Condor hasn't written anything on the 2nd edition since April. Only just realised now how much time since then.
Although some short-comings it's a pretty well reserached TL.
Don't forget the state of the Italians in 1940/41. They had not only been driven out Cyrenaica and suffered heavy losses their moral was shot to hell. Their weapons had proved worthless against the British Matilda's. Their fleet was also reeling after Taranto and Mussolini has now bogged down much of their remaining army in Greece, with the logistical burden that imposed.
It would have been difficult maintaining and supplying an offensive but if Britain had put everything into it, should be possible. Once we can get a air-base or two within range of Tripoli and hence control of the air over the base, it makes re-supply virtually impossible. I think Hitler actually refused initial suggests of German aid because he thought it was pointless and only when Britain didn't resume the offensive did he send the Africa Korp.
Don't forget that OTL Britain after Compass performed the Greek intervention, then lost Crete, then saw Rommel's 1st offensive. Successfully reinforced and supported Tobruk, crushed pro-Axis rebellion in Iraq, occupied Syria and completed the liberation of Italian E Africa. Then, despite diverting resources to Russia managed to organise and equip the force that defeated Rommel and relieved Tobruk and might have driven him out of Libya except for the Japanese attack that force a switch of units eastwards.
Nothing is certain in war but it should be possible to get Tripoli in a hopeless position by late spring and hence lead to its fall. This might also mean that the Italian fleet is further reduced as it is pressurised into seeking to force supplies through to the beleaguered garrison. What is also likely is that once its secured Malta becomes even easier to supply and loses much of its geographic importance. As such there is likely to be less need to force convoys through to Malta under heavy pressure or to Alexandria.
Steve