alternatehistory.com

On January 31, 1996, Greece and Turkey very nearly went to war over a small islet in the Agean. Turkey almost launched a military takeover of this rock, and at one point the Turkish Prime Minister gave Greece a two-hour ultimatum. Such an act would have forced Greece to retaliate. The United States under Clinton negotiated a last-minute compromise, with assistant state secretary Richard Holbrooke saying that a war over such a tiny rock would be absurd. Tensions were already high at the time: both countries were sending growing numbers of warships, planes and commandos into the region. Turkish and Greek planes regularly confronted each other and sometimes engaged in dogfights, and they continued even afterward (In September 1996, Greek Mirage 2000s shot down two Turkish F-16s).

So what happens if either Greece or Turkey takes over the island by force, and the other side responds? How does a Greek-Turkish war play out, and what are its effects on the world? I can imagine that NATO might not even exist by now.
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