Greco-Italian War 1941 - Who Wins?

As most of know the Greco-Italian War of 1941 in OTL was consumed by the larger conflict of World War Two and while the Greeks inflicted a humiliating defeat on Mussolini's army they were ultimately no match for the Germans.

But what if there was no Nazi Germany?

Suppose for the purposes of this threat that the Nazi Party died at birth and that in 1941 Germany is not at war with any of it's neighbours and that the most powerful dictatorship in Western Europe is Fascist Italy. How would a Greco-Italian War in 1941 procede if neither side recieved direct outside military aid? Basically who would win if the two countries went at it by themselves?
 
The Greeks would ultimately win. They were already advancing into Italian-controlled Albania by the time the Germans intervened. Mussolini had the problem of going into countries where he wasn't going to beat easily.

 
Are you assuming that there has been no Italian intervention in Spain? Would Mussolini give the on-the-ground support with the Germans also doing so?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
In the long run Italy, with no involvment in the north african front or squander resource on the attack on France and the battle of Britain and with more time for refurbish the armed forces from the drain of the spanish civil war the situation favor the italians.
Probably at the begin Benny understimate the Greeks as OTL, but after the counteroffensive he bring all he can in the fight as he cannot permit that kind of humiliation.
So heavy casualities for Italy but in the end victory for Rome and the Duce
 
In the long run Italy, with no involvment in the north african front or squander resource on the attack on France and the battle of Britain and with more time for refurbish the armed forces from the drain of the spanish civil war the situation favor the italians.
Probably at the begin Benny understimate the Greeks as OTL, but after the counteroffensive he bring all he can in the fight as he cannot permit that kind of humiliation.
So heavy casualities for Italy but in the end victory for Rome and the Duce

Exactly, Greece is an excellent example of why not to open another major front when you're flailing in the other one. With that front the removed the Italians can bring all their force to bear on the Greeks, including their vastly superior Navy, whilst the initial offensive into the mountains will probbaly still fail, the Greeks won't be able to push into Albania and eventually Italian air, naval and numerical superiority will win the day. Think Winter War but in the Med.
 
Ah, but if there is no general war in Europe and no Nazi Germany might not Greece be able to find an ally, perhaps in Yugoslavia, or to acquire armaments on a larger scale once the war is underway?
 
Ah, but if there is no general war in Europe and no Nazi Germany might not Greece be able to find an ally, perhaps in Yugoslavia, or to acquire armaments on a larger scale once the war is underway?

Well the OP stated that this will be a Italian- Greeks affair so the other powers will mind their business and see Italy waste her force.
Greece can acquire armaments but there is still problem on pay it (IRC Greece was not very florid in the period), manning it and the transport (the Regia Marina without having to care to the RN can blocke the Hellenic ports and the Italian air force in the end can achieve total air supremacy).
Taking in consideration a possible Yugoslavian intervention, well she can do it but first it's internally divided and his armed forces are not really in good shape in terms of tattics and equipment (more obsolete than Italy) and second the intevention can trigger a Bulgarian and Hungary attack to her to get contested territory meanwhile she is busy fight the Italian.
This last scenario, in a no nazi europe, can be achieved easily, the little entente still exist so when Italy attack Greece Romania and Yugoslavia and maybe Turkey attack, Bulgaria and Hungary opportunalistically (and with a little preparation by Benny, as the plan to attack Yugoslavia was always meant to include Bulgaria and Hungary) enter the fray siding with Rome.
The other power are too occupied with a revanchist Germany (nazi or no nazi a strong revanchism will still exist), Urss or simply don't care and follow a policy of appeasament.
 
Ah, but if there is no general war in Europe and no Nazi Germany might not Greece be able to find an ally, perhaps in Yugoslavia, or to acquire armaments on a larger scale once the war is underway?

The Yugoslavian Army was powerful on paper but most of that strength was occupied with defending it's massive border against several hostile threats whilst also being prepared to prevent an internal struggle, they will sympathise sympathise but they won't be able to send much help. The Armarments they will acquire probably won't match the British help they received in OTL.
 
In the end the Italians have a chance at winning yet it would be long, bloody, and ultimately not worth it.
 
What would be the scope of italian victory though? Will they settle with annexations of Aegean Islands or be able to make Greece Italian puppet state?
 
What would be the scope of italian victory though? Will they settle with annexations of Aegean Islands or be able to make Greece Italian puppet state?

Ionian, Sporades and Cyclades islands annexed to Italy and North-western frontier annexed to Albania (who in this case i don't know who was still a puppet nation of Italy or directly annexed as OTL), the remants of Greece transformed in a puppet state, anything less will not satisfy Benny after the Greeks resistance and the humiliation of the first offensive.
 
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