Greatest Amount of Ottoman Gains in a CP Victory

Tellus

Banned
I suppose that the absolute maximum could only be attained if we put Bulgaria on the Entente side, otherwise any land recovery in Europe proper is essentially impossible. They can get some Greek islands, and of course Cyprus.

In the north, versus Russia, I suppose territory roughly equal to modern Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia could be taken from Russia, giving Baku to the Ottomans, perhaps also a protectorate over a new Turkmeni vassal on the other side of the Caspian. They could also get the Russians to give up the right to have warships in the Black Sea once again. I dont think recovering Crimea is a realistic target however.

In the Arabian peninsula, kicking out the British completely seems like a stretch, but they could re-establish their rule over Hedjaz, Arabia, and maybe even force the British to hand over parts of the southern coastline. Since you say "maximum" I assume we're talking about a situation where the German HSF had managed to win strategic victories against the Royal Navy and threatens or invades the Isles to the point where London is willing to sign away large swaths of the Empire.

In that light, Im willing to say that Egypt and Lybia are not totally out of question, though realistically, I doubt the Ottomans ever hoped for more than the Sinai in that direction. I dont see Germany and Austria being interested in having the Ottomans regain Tripoli and much less Tunis, though; I recall Austria thought about taking Lybia from Italy and they clearly have more weight at the peace table.

I have this old map here, its a little rough andi dunno what timeline it was from, or even if it was from AH.com, but it shows what looks like a maximal Ottoman Empire after a WW1 in which Italy clearly stayed CP, and Bulgaria was probably fighting for the wrong side :) It seems to suggest a large sultanate was carved out of British lands in southern Arabia, that Turkestan was freed and enlarged, and Im not too sure what happened to Persia and Sudan... but its damn close to the largest post-1878 OE I can think of.

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Realistically even with a quick CP victory with Paris falling in 1914 and Russia surrendering 1914/5 I can't see the Ottomans gaining much. Bulgaria became part of the CP in 1915 so the Turks would not gain Bulgaria. Maybe the best the Ottomans could do in the Balkans is gain some of Aegean islands at best.

In the Caucasus it would be the Ottomans best chance so territory as far north as Chechnya, but if the Russians are defeated in 1915 there would be no week revolutionary Russia to face...

In Arabia the Ottomans were too weak to make many gains since the British were dotted around the place and the Ottomans could not have retaken Egypt of the Suez Canal.
 
Europe: Bulgaria made not pissing off the Ottomans an essential foriegn policy goal after the Balkan Wars: they could have jumped on Serbia from day one and it would probably have had the same result (rapid advances and the forced evacuation of the Serbs), but they waited until the Ottomans were clearly for the CP and were never very interesting by vague Entente promises of Edirne.

And besides that, the Ottoman leadership had largely written off the Balkans. One of the Three Pashas made some comment about the Empire being like a man robbed in the woods: he wanted only to keep his life and perhaps his shirt. Many former Balkan Muslims had invested a great deal in building new lives for themselves in what was left of the empire. At most, they'd take Turkish-majority Western Thrace, if Bulgaria manages to have a major stupid attack.

Caucasus: Batum and Kars were always on the agenda (the rhetoric when they were finally captured was pretty well irredentist), but the idea of a sphere of influence further north and stretching into Central Asia was a result of Russia melting down.

If that happens, the Ottomans will certainly create a friendly regime in Azerbaijan and a servile on in Armenia (they did that anyway) and sponsor Shamilists in the North Caucasus. They may even take over Azerbaijan directly. They'd be interested in a stake in Georgia (and Abkhazia, where they were still looked to as sponsors by what remained of the Muslim aristocracy), but the Germans (and the Georgians) were never very keen on this idea.

Central Asia: Even with Russia totally going under, the best I can see is spheres of influence here. It's a long way, communications are poor, the local society is completely differant despite the linguistic kinship.

Iran: The Ottomans were sittinga round in Iranian Azerbaijan for a major part of the war. If they win, there's nothing to stop them making the arrangement permanent.

Arabia: An assertion of greater control in the Hedjaz, obviously. Depending on how hard Britain is squeezed elsewhere, we could feasibly lose some of our Arabian protectorates, like Kuwait.

Egypt: Unlikley, I should think. Seperation between Eggypt and the Empire had lasted for decades by then and local Egyptian nationalism, while strong, was not very Ottophile from what I've heard. And this would require Britain to sustain a very major defeat.
 
We appear to be overlooking vassals, and autonomous/independent rulers re-affirming allegiance to the Caliphate - this is certanly possible in Egypt, and in Tunis, where you remove the British and French protectorates and replace it once more with Ottoman overlordship. The Senussi would have welcomed the Ottomans back to Libya, with themselves as under-kings (they did after all become kings after WW2).

The Ottomans would be looking for the same thing in Arabia, backing the anti-Saudis, and probably looking to regain overlordship of Kuwait.

IIRC Asir (between Hejaz and Yemen) had also gone wandering a bit, and reaffirming its ruler's subjection to the Ottomans would be important

As for the Crimea, the Ottomans are never going to directly annex it, but if they back an independent Tatar state, then this will probably also acknowledge Ottoman overlordship

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
We appear to be overlooking vassals, and autonomous/independent rulers re-affirming allegiance to the Caliphate - this is certanly possible in Egypt, and in Tunis, where you remove the British and French protectorates and replace it once more with Ottoman overlordship. The Senussi would have welcomed the Ottomans back to Libya, with themselves as under-kings (they did after all become kings after WW2).

The Ottomans would be looking for the same thing in Arabia, backing the anti-Saudis, and probably looking to regain overlordship of Kuwait.

IIRC Asir (between Hejaz and Yemen) had also gone wandering a bit, and reaffirming its ruler's subjection to the Ottomans would be important

As for the Crimea, the Ottomans are never going to directly annex it, but if they back an independent Tatar state, then this will probably also acknowledge Ottoman overlordship

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

The Germans had designs on Crimea, they wouldn't have allowed the Ottomans to take it, or even set up a Tatar state.

As for Egypt, what would an Arab Revolt in conjunction with a far larger, better supplied, trained and informed Ottoman offensive achieve?
 

Susano

Banned
The Germans had designs on Crimea, they wouldn't have allowed the Ottomans to take it, or even set up a Tatar state.
I dont think Germany directly annexing the Crimea is any remotely likely, so why not play divide and conquer and have an own Crimean vasall besides the Ukrainian vasall? Of course, it would pretty much be a German vasall, in that case. Then again, I dont think the Crimea is high on the list of Ottoman priorities.

Well, lets see point for point, from whom the Ottomans could gain territory:
-IRAN: Yeah, I simply agree with IBC here.

-RUSSIA: If Russia is totally, utterly defeated while the Ottomans are still able to launch expeditions, then they might go for the entire Russian caucasus, including the North caucasus. They tried that IOTL, but by then they were already too exhausted. So, anything from Abchasia to Dagestan could well end up Ottoman, or under Ottoman vasalls. Here, too, the Ottomans might come to disagreements with the Germans, so maybe Georgia instead becomes a German vasall kingdom under some German princeling...

And yes, Central Asia is pretty much out of the picture. I cant even say the Ottomans being able to assert control over small states there should the region balkanise, its just too far away and inaccesible. Of course, if the Empire gains Azerbaijan with Baku, probably the most or second most important Caspian port, then in the post-war world the Ottomans might gradually try it. That would require a Central Asian fragmentation and secession from Russia, though...

-FRANCE/ITALY: Taken together because its about the same: North Africa. Assuming Italy is on Entente side (Italy being on CP side is the absolutely most easy and most plausible CP victory PoD, so that "if" bears meantioning), then I think Libya would pretty much go back to the Ottomans by default, again either directly or via vasalls. Tunisia is trickier, and I dont think any peace treaty will force France to give up Algeria. Both are already too tied with France, that is a problem. Of course, as Germany has no particular interest in Tunisia they might allow for an Ottoman vasall to be set up for no other reason than to further weaken France...

-GREAT BRITAIN: Ah, now, that is the most tricky part. Theres Kuwait, Cyprus and Egypt, and all are very valuable to the British Empire, and all are thorns in the side of the Ottoman Empire. I think Kuwait is rather doomed and will be reabsorbed into the Ottoman Empire, OTOH Cyprus is rather unreachable for the Ottomans and hence will remain British. Which leaves Egypt. Really, the UK cant give up Egypt if only because of the Suez Canal, and the UK really cannot afford to give the Suez Canal away. Thats the problem here...
 
I think Algeria, or even Tunisia is stretching too far. Libya seems plausible, since it has only been a few years and there is still a resistance raging in Libya.
 

Susano

Banned
I think Algeria, or even Tunisia is stretching too far. Libya seems plausible, since it has only been a few years and there is still a resistance raging in Libya.

Well, its not a great possibility, but as said, Tunisia is probably still more plausible than Egypt, though.
 
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