Greater Manchukuo

Mengjiang was established largely via the actions of Manchukuo soldiers IIRC. Legally it ended up being an autonomous part of China, but could Manchukuo have incorporated Mengjiang into itself?

Could Manchukuo have ultimately managed to establish its independence from Japan and China over time?
 

trurle

Banned
Mengjiang was established largely via the actions of Manchukuo soldiers IIRC. Legally it ended up being an autonomous part of China, but could Manchukuo have incorporated Mengjiang into itself?

Could Manchukuo have ultimately managed to establish its independence from Japan and China over time?
Highly doubtful unless Japanese actively push it for self-rule and independence (they did exactly opposite IOTL).
 
What if the Nationalists had won China, but lost Manchuria and Manchuria became a communist state?
 
What if the Nationalists had won China, but lost Manchuria and Manchuria became a communist state?

Then it lasts precisely as long as whatever the Eastern equivalent of the "Iron Curtain" is, at which point without a protector, being pushed into economic isolation, and largely populated by Han Chinese, you get a German Reunification scenario
 
What if the Nationalists had won China, but lost Manchuria and Manchuria became a communist state?

I'd actually wonder a reverse scenario would be, with Manchura/Jurchen state being on the NATO side and China becoming socialist. Would makes more tense, but also would mean the Korean War would be avoided.
 
Then it lasts precisely as long as whatever the Eastern equivalent of the "Iron Curtain" is, at which point without a protector, being pushed into economic isolation, and largely populated by Han Chinese, you get a German Reunification scenario
Taiwan is in no rush to "reunite" with China in OTL. It isn't impossible for an independent Manchurian Identity to develop, regardless of the ethnic background of the country.
 
This is a fascinating scenario! Perhaps Pu Yi, leads a Jordan style monarchy, semi democratic state, while China is expansionist under Weng and the nationalists.
 
Taiwan is in no rush to "reunite" with China in OTL. It isn't impossible for an independent Manchurian Identity to develop, regardless of the ethnic background of the country.

That's comparing apples to oranges. Taiwan has and had a powerful forgein protector, connections both strong and constant to outside cultural influnces, developed a vibrant economy that links into a side economic system, ect. The proposed Greater Manchuko is in no geographic or political position to pull off any of these things
 
has and had a powerful forgein protector
TTL Japanese Empire could suffice to provide proper deterrence to China.

connections both strong and constant to outside cultural influnces
TTL Manchuria would have the Manchus of the Qing Dynasty to take cultural influence from. It would also be heavily influenced by Japanese and Korean immigrants.

developed a vibrant economy that links into a side economic system
OTL Japan became the worlds 2nd largest economy by 1978. TTl Japan has access to far more resources than OTL Japan to develop itself. Manchukuo can develop its economy by working with Japan. And Korea. And Formosa.

The proposed Greater Manchuko is in no geographic or political position to pull off any of these things
Do you believe that Taiwan would have lasted a month without the US and its aircraft carriers? The only reason that Taiwan had a chance to develop a modern economy was because it was given time to. In TTL Japan would give Manchukuo the necessary time to develop itself. If given the chance, TTL Japan would undoubtedly become a nuclear power. Nuclear deterrence is simply a cheaper solution to keep China away than maintaining a large military and navy. Once the Nuclear Age begins it will become politically impossible for China to ever go to war with Japan again. Think of it like OTL India-Pakistan. They fought a couple wars, then one got the bomb, than the other, and now there isn't anymore warring going on anymore because the costs are now too high to be politically feasible.
 
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TTL Japanese Empire could suffice to provide proper deterrence to China.

TTL Manchuria would have the Manchus of the Qing Dynasty to take cultural influence from. It would also be heavily influenced by Japanese and Korean immigrants.

OTL Japan became the worlds 2nd largest economy by 1978. TTl Japan has access to far more resources than OTL Japan to develop itself. Manchukuo can develop its economy by working with Japan. And Korea. And Formosa.
That's only if the Japanese paid more than lip service to their propaganda to Manchukuo being a multiracial and multicultural paradise where all people are free to prosper. They never had any intention to treat Manchukuo as anything other than an Asian version of the Congo Free State, so whatever economic development will only be used for Japan's benefit. Don't forget these are the same people who shipped off civilians to human experimentation camps where they were referred to as logs, and where coal mines which catch fire are sealed off with miners still inside in order to protect the equipment.

If, miraculously, they had a change of heart, allowing its industrial might to benefit all its own people would threaten Japan's position. It's as ridiculous as the Nazis winning the war, and then honestly implementing their propaganda about building a brotherly confederation of European nations.

Do you believe that Taiwan would have lasted a month without the US and its aircraft carriers? The only reason that Taiwan had a chance to develop a modern economy was because it was given time to. In TTL Japan would give Manchukuo the necessary time to develop itself. If given the chance, TTL Japan would undoubtedly become a nuclear power. Nuclear deterrence is simply a cheaper solution to keep China away than maintaining a large military and navy. Once the Nuclear Age begins it will become politically impossible for China to ever go to war with Japan again. Think of it like OTL India-Pakistan. They fought a couple wars, then one got the bomb, than the other, and now there isn't anymore warring going on anymore because the costs are now too high to be politically feasible.
Nuclear deterrence can't save an empire from losing unwilling subject territories. Just ask the French in Algeria, or the Soviets (but you can't, since the entire Soviet system imploded).
 
Nuclear deterrence can't save an empire from losing unwilling subject territories. Just ask the French in Algeria, or the Soviets (but you can't, since the entire Soviet system imploded).
It does if your brutal enough which a surviving imperial Japanese empire would be more then willing to do
 
It does if your brutal enough which a surviving imperial Japanese empire would be more then willing to do
In which case, Manchukuo remains an Asian Congo Free State - which precludes the possibility of a Manchukuo that is genuinely independent, multiracial, but still allied with Japan.
 
That's only if the Japanese paid more than lip service to their propaganda to Manchukuo being a multiracial and multicultural paradise where all people are free to prosper. They never had any intention to treat Manchukuo as anything other than an Asian version of the Congo Free State, so whatever economic development will only be used for Japan's benefit. Don't forget these are the same people who shipped off civilians to human experimentation camps where they were referred to as logs, and where coal mines which catch fire are sealed off with miners still inside in order to protect the equipment.
Not excusing what the Japanese did during WW2. But you are only considering what would happen during a war, not what would happen if WW2 never occurred at all. People do not experiment on war prisoners during peacetime, nor would a war economy necessitate draining resources occupied areas to feed the war machine. We need to little about little wars and peace not total warfare like we saw in OTL where unconditional surrender is the only option. Could Manchukuo develop its own identity under those circumstances. I think it could. Just avoid WW2. Hitler dies by tripping down a stairwell.

In which case, Manchukuo remains an Asian Congo Free State - which precludes the possibility of a Manchukuo that is genuinely independent, multiracial, but still allied with Japan.
That was what I was implying all along. You have the Manchus, Chinese, Koreans, and Japanese all living together.
 
That's comparing apples to oranges. Taiwan has and had a powerful forgein protector, connections both strong and constant to outside cultural influnces, developed a vibrant economy that links into a side economic system, ect. The proposed Greater Manchuko is in no geographic or political position to pull off any of these things

This is a bigger PoD, but what if Russia wasn’t Socialist? The Russian Republic survives, China still fragments as IOTL, and Japan sets up Manchukuo, but after *WWII Russia props Manchukuo up as a counterbalance to a still-Socialist China?

As to how China still goes Socialist, maybe some other European nation does ITTL and gives them support?
 
TTL Japanese Empire could suffice to provide proper deterrence to China.


TTL Manchuria would have the Manchus of the Qing Dynasty to take cultural influence from. It would also be heavily influenced by Japanese and Korean immigrants.


OTL Japan became the worlds 2nd largest economy by 1978. TTl Japan has access to far more resources than OTL Japan to develop itself. Manchukuo can develop its economy by working with Japan. And Korea. And Formosa.


Do you believe that Taiwan would have lasted a month without the US and its aircraft carriers? The only reason that Taiwan had a chance to develop a modern economy was because it was given time to. In TTL Japan would give Manchukuo the necessary time to develop itself. If given the chance, TTL Japan would undoubtedly become a nuclear power. Nuclear deterrence is simply a cheaper solution to keep China away than maintaining a large military and navy. Once the Nuclear Age begins it will become politically impossible for China to ever go to war with Japan again. Think of it like OTL India-Pakistan. They fought a couple wars, then one got the bomb, than the other, and now there isn't anymore warring going on anymore because the costs are now too high to be politically feasible.

V

See posts immediately beneath yours: They managed to get to my point before I could get back on. Any scenario with a surviving Japan is a scenario where Japan has TOO much influence for the region to develop its own independence; since Japanese and/or main-body Chinese influence would be TOO strong for them to hold out alone. The US never had any intentions of integrating Taiwain, but WANTED and ALLOWED it to develop the way it did. No such motivators exist for any power who would have the ability and incentive to back Manchuko in its vulnerable early state.
 
People do not experiment on war prisoners during peacetime, nor would a war economy necessitate draining resources occupied areas to feed the war machine. We need to little about little wars and peace not total warfare like we saw in OTL where unconditional surrender is the only option. Could Manchukuo develop its own identity under those circumstances.
Unit 731 was active well before any war took place - indicating the Japanese were already conducting experiments in the absence of any war. My example of the intentional disregard for welfare also means the Japanese had no time for treating Manchukuo as anything other than an Asian Congo Free State - with its human beings as expendable logs.

That was what I was implying all along. You have the Manchus, Chinese, Koreans, and Japanese all living together.
Correct, the same way the Confederate States, the General Government, and the Belgian Free State were all ethnically diverse.
 
Of course, a genuinely independent Manchukuo that was truly multiracial and multicultural is plausible, but not with a surviving Aisin Gioro monarchy. And definitely not with a POD in the 20th century.
 

RousseauX

Donor
I'd actually wonder a reverse scenario would be, with Manchura/Jurchen state being on the NATO side and China becoming socialist. Would makes more tense, but also would mean the Korean War would be avoided.
Manchuria was 95% ethnic Han by the 1900s, there wasn't any Jurchens left by that time
 

trurle

Banned
I'd actually wonder a reverse scenario would be, with Manchura/Jurchen state being on the NATO side and China becoming socialist. Would makes more tense, but also would mean the Korean War would be avoided.
NATO/US at that time was not committed or powerful enough to defend Manchukuo. Even Korean War IOTL was a close call.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Not excusing what the Japanese did during WW2. But you are only considering what would happen during a war, not what would happen if WW2 never occurred at all. People do not experiment on war prisoners during peacetime, nor would a war economy necessitate draining resources occupied areas to feed the war machine. We need to little about little wars and peace not total warfare like we saw in OTL where unconditional surrender is the only option. Could Manchukuo develop its own identity under those circumstances. I think it could. Just avoid WW2. Hitler dies by tripping down a stairwell.
The problem is that China wants it back and shift in cultural/national identities is dicey and takes generations to accomplish in the best case scenario, meanwhile there's two major powers (China and the USSR) willing to smuggle weapons/aid into Manchuria, and maybe fight an actual war to take control of it.

Japan can keep Manchuria so long as both China and Russia are weak and distracted, but geopolitics and Japan's relative weakness on the Asian mainland means holding on to Manchuria is always a stretch

That was what I was implying all along. You have the Manchus, Chinese, Koreans, and Japanese all living together.
Manchuria was 95% ethnic Han by the early 1900s, the problem is that any Manchurian states are going to be overwhelmingly populated by Chinese even if you move some Japanese/Koreans in

That's not to say separate identities can't develop (it did in Taiwan), it's just that it's pretty hard for Japan to hold onto the territory long enough for it to develop

A russian/Soviet sponsored Manchuria would be another scenario altogether though
 
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