Greater Germany, how do we make this work?

In the mid 19th century there were some who wanted to unify all German states in to Greater Germany (Großdeutschland), which would have included Austria. However, in the end it was Bismarck's Lesser Germany (Kleindeutschland) model which prevailed. There were many reasons for this, rivalry between Prussia and Austria probably being the most important.

So what it would have taken to get this Greater Germany model to work? Lesser Germany was steamrolled by Otto von Bismarck, who wanted a Prussian dominated German Empire. So reducing his role would be essential. Biggest problem I can see would be the two thrones. Who would become the Emperor, William of Prussia or Franz Josef of Austria? Could Hungary an other non German parts of Austrian Empire be included? Any ideas?
 

Susano

Banned
Lets not cofnuse periods here.

Kleindeutschland and Großdeutschland were proposals at the 1848 revolutiona nd teh Paulskirche Parliament in Franfkrut at that time. Teh parliament decided to go with the former and offered the crown to the Prussian King, who declined. Parliament and the Rveolution quickly fell apart after that.

The German Empire formed by Bismarck was territorially teh same as the Kleindeutsche Solution, but that wasnt his intent - primarily, he just wanted to break up the German Confederation with its Austrian dominance. Its wrong to see Bismark cas advocate for the Kleindeutsch esolution, because he did not want any German unification at all - he had his aims reached with the North German Confederation already.

For the Großdeutsche Lösung to work we need the 1848 revolution radically win. That verges on ASB, but might still be possible. It needs Austria to break up, so that it cant act as agent of the reaction. If the Hungarian revolution is successful, and Russia occupied by *handwave* - famine, comet strike, revolution, whatever... so Austria is in chaos, as are most German states. IOTL, Prussia cleared the revolutionaires from most German states, but if we assume the Paulskirche offers a coordinated resistance... mayb elevee en masse revolutionary armies... and then defeats and conquers Prussia...

Well then out of thatr evolutionary chaos we might see a German Empire along Greater German Lines, unde rthe House of Meran ;)
 
If the Prussian King decided to accept the throne being offered by Frankfurt (pick it out of the gutter if you will), then would he be able to make the new empire a reality?

I tend to think that the only reason that the German Empire wasn't founded in '48 was because Frederick William IV of Prussia was not the right sort of man to accomplish the thing in '48. If we make the POD Frederick William IV actually being the second coming of Frederick the Great (I don't think he needs to be this competent, but what the heck) then I think the German Empire comes into being.

The Prussians mobilize their armies in support of Frankfurt, overthrow the other German regimes, and create the unified German Empire. Then Frederick uses working class vs middle class tensions (the same tensions that worked against the revolutionaries from Vienna to Paris) to end the constitutional regime.
 
If the Prussian King decided to accept the throne being offered by Frankfurt (pick it out of the gutter if you will), then would he be able to make the new empire a reality?

No, because that proposal would have excluded Austria. We would just get the (Lesser) German Empire sooner.
 

General Zod

Banned
Ahh, one of my fetish PoDs get discussed again. :D:cool:

Now, in order to accomplish Grossdeutschsland unification, you need to a)break the power of the Hapsburg Empire or of Prussia b) to create a clear political separation between the Austrian and Hungarian halves of the Empire (at the very least personal union) or better independent Hungary c) to have Russia and France too busy/weak to interfere or mollified enough with concessions to go along with the process, d) either Prussia or Austria must be willing to take the lead of the German unification movement.

Barring radical divergences from previous PoDs, there are two main hotspots where this may be accomplished, 1848 and 1866-1867 (the latter two are slightly different PoDs, but close enough to be treated as one).

The most easy way to accomplish this is to have a collapse of the Hapsburg Empire, with a successful independence movement of Hungary, and a Prussia which takes the lead of German unification.

First case, 1848: Russia is kept busy by an early Polish revolt (PoD 1), France is paralyzed by its own revolution (OTL), either the Haspburg army suffers a severe defeat in the war with Sardinia-Piedmont (PoD 2a), or, alternatively, the Hungarian Diet recalls the Hungarian troops before Radetsky is able to win the Italian war (PoD 2b).

As a consequence, the Empire loses the war in Italy and whatever residual prestige, so it is unable to suppress the Austrian liberals and Hungary claims independence early. The Empire falls into complete chaos.

The Frankfurt Parliament implements the Großdeutschland solution and offers the crown of the German Empire to the Prussian King Frederick Wilhelm IV, who is either persuaded to accept or abdicates in favor of his brother Wilhelm I (PoD 3a). Alternatively, there is a successful liberal revolution in Prussia (PoD 3b), and the Frankfurt Parliament offers the crown of the German Empire to Archduke Johann of Austria.

In the face of Hapsburg chaos and Russian repression, Czechs and Prussian Poles agree to be part of Germany for minority rights (schools and laws in their own languages and German). Sardinia-Piedmont is able to seize Italian areas from the collapse of the Hapsburg Empire, gaining much prestige, revolutions sweep the minor Italian states, and the Kingdom of Italy is proclaimed under the leadership of the Savoia.

Second case, 1866-1867: Russia can be win over to the partition of the Hapsburg Empire by offering Austrian Poland and Galicia and Prussia's assent to remilitarizaion of the Black Sea (easily accomplished butterfly if we have a competent Prussian government: Bismarck most definitely qualifies). France needs to be sufficiently distracted and/or demoralized elsewhere (troubles in Mexico or intervention in the ACW or a nasty colonial war), or isn't willing to act against the Prussia-Italy-Russia coalition, and Napoleon III being the always willing type to prefer territorial gains by diplomatic maneuvering over military intervention, can be (temporarily) win over by promises of territorial gains in Belgium or Luxembourg.

The Hapsburg Empire collapses because a) the Austrian army of the North is completely destroyed in the battle of Koniggratz (PoD 1a) or the Kaiser and the generals are able to get their strategy through with Bismarck and the Prussian army wins another great battle after Koniggratz (PoD 1b) or the Austrian army of the South is destroyed by the Italians at Custoza (PoD 1c) or the Italian fleet wins at Lissa and the Italians land troops in Dalmatia (Pod 1d). Any of these events causes the total military defeat of the Hapsburg and complete loss of prestige of the dynasty. As a consequence, either at the end of the war, or soon after, the Hungarians successfully rise up again and claim independence. Alternatively (PoD 1e) the Ausgliech negotiations fail and Hungary chooses independence.

Anyway, Bismarck sees the writing on the wall for the Hapsburg and organizes the partition of the Empire between the Prussian-led German Confederation, Italy, Hungary, and Russia. Austria, Bohemia, Moravia, Slovenia, and Austrian Silesia are either paritioned between Prussia and Austria, or set up as a Kingdom of Austria (Franz Joseph abdicates and leave the throne to his son Rudolph) which becomes a member state of Germany. Italy gets Trento, Trieste (with customs privileges for Germany), Istria, and Dalmatia. Russia gets Austrian Poland and Galicia. Hungary becomes an independent Kingdom (either a personal union with the Kingdom of Austria or another Hapsburg or a catholic Hohenzollern, but the first two solution are more pleasant to the rest of Europe) with Croatia, Slovakia, and Transylvania.

There are other possible PoDs which involve the Hapsburg taking the lead of German unification but they are rather less likely, so I'll leave their discussion to others.

Now, it is quite possible that France once it manages to put its business into order and/or realizes that compensations aren't coming, will attempt to regain continental leadership by a quick war with Germany or Italy. Either in 1850 or in 1870, this will almost certainly fail since Germany and Italy will close ranks against expansionist France and French military resources and generalship are insufficient to the task in the mid-late 1800s (unless Napoleon I gets a sudden reincarnation in his nephew). So it is the march on Paris all over again and France says goodbye to Alsace-Lorraine, Nice, Savoy, and Corsica.

Anyway, this scenario is in both PoDs a best case TL for Germany which paves the way to its decisive victory in any future general European war and continental hegemony in the next century. Germany has accomplished complete national unification and got the best parts of the Hapsbrug inheritance, which they can put to best use with their efficient economy and administration (the Czech minority will not be as much difficult to manage for Germany as for A-H), and got an ally in the Balkans rather more vital than A-H.

They will also be able to create an unbreakable alliance block with Italy and Hungary, since the former has no irredentist claims on its allies and needs them against revanchist and colonial rival France, and the latter needs their support to keep an hold on her minorities and against irredentist neighbors (Serbia, Romania) and their expansionist Russian sponsor, and the Ottomans.

Germany, barring ASB levels of diplomatic incompetence, will be able to win at least one of Russia, Britain, and the Ottoman Empire as an ally. Barring ASB bad generalship, this means they shall almost certainly win any WWI scenario and build Mitteleuropa and/or an early European economic union out of the spoils of Russia or France. Butterfly away German Nazism and Russian Communism is greately weakened or butterflied away.

Now, most likely there is still a big war in Asia coming in the 1920s-1930s to settle continental hegemony between UK, USA, and Japan. This may or may not expand to Europe and blossom into WWII if Russia gets seriously revanchist (possibly some kind of nationalist authoritarian or fascist regime) and Germany is complacent and/or busy to keep the Balkans in line enough to let it go unchecked. France too might well fall to a nasty authoritarian or fascist regime under the weight of defeat, humiliation, and economic unrest. Communism in Russia or France is possible but it would require the Allies to be too exausted to crush it (possible in Russia, rather unlikely in France) or to occur well after the war (unlikely, never happened in Europe without a war OTL).

If this happens, unless Germany and Italy get so complacent as to let their military power decay seriously or completely estranged, they will close ranks with either/both UK/USA and win WWII too. However, revanchist nasty Russia ought to be significantly easier to defeat than revanchist nasty Germany, so this WWII has good potential to be less destructive than OTL.

As it concerns the Holocaust, it is well possible it gets butterflied away entirely or gets minimized (France goes an antisemitic genocidal regime). However, if Russia gets an antisemitic genocidal regime, and seizes most of Central/Eastern Europe during the war (esp. Poland and Hungary), the body count may blossom to something resembling OTL, but not come close (unless Russia sweeps the continent, and then she becomes difficult to dislodge: enter ATL Cold War).

Overall, this kind of scenario offers excellent potential to turn up a rather more favourable outcome for the world (besides my strong Germanophile sympathies, the reason why I fancy this PoD a lot and eventually will make an TL out of it), as most of the nastiest and most destructive phenomena of the 20th Century (Communism, Nazism, the Holocaust) are most likely butterflied away or seriously downplayed in magnitude.

The TL will only look an unfavourable outcome if you are a French nationalist (Russian nationalism will get a severe thrashing too, but most likely Russia is spared several decades of nasty dictatorship) or regard the OTL current cultural dominance of political correctness/pacifism/anti-imperialism an absolutely necessary outcome no matter the body count.
 
Wow, that's very 'mathematically possible', as in 'my team can get to the finals if team A wins by X points and team B loses by y points, but team C C wins by less than z points'. That said such a Grossdeutschsland would be a very powerful country, much less prone to string pulling from powerful coalitions of great powers.
 

Susano

Banned
Im sorry, Mr General, but your timeline has many improbabilities :p

If 1848 decides on großdeutschland, it will offer the crown to the Habsburg Emperor. Teh question also was about who gets the crown, and in a Großdeutschland scenairo that would be Habsburg. So, any Habsburg misfortune will only strengthen the Kleindeutschland camp.

But, yes Archduke John is an indeed revolutionary possiblity. ive suggested the same in my proposal - the only problem is wether hed accept. But he seems to have been a down to the people guy, for a Habsburg...

Of course, in that case Austria and Prussia would have to be, err, coqnuered first. They wont just surrender to the Paulskirche. And with the Paulskirche intatc, there wont be a German Confederation, so no war of 1866... and if Bismarck is chancelor hell do everything to avoid Prussia being absorbed by Germany...
 
No, because that proposal would have excluded Austria. We would just get the (Lesser) German Empire sooner.

If the Prussians are able to bring about the unification of the (lesser) German Empire, then they have a much longer lead time for the possible unification of all Germany. If you have Prussia uniting Germany in 1848, then I think that this is going to end up having a VERY powerful effect on Austria, as in the German nationalists in Austria might ask for annexation into the new Second Reich.

Even if Austria is able to maintain its territorial integrity (and I'm inclined to believe that they can), the fact that Germany united under the conditions that it did means that I don't think it will remain as territorially whole as it did OTL. I think that this German regime is going to be built much more on populist nationalism, a dependence that is going to drive greater demands for total German unification, a demand that will explicitly include Austria.

In OTL German hyper-nationalism ended up as an important factor in WWI. Under these conditions, with a (presumably) popular German Emperor and a regime built on popular nationalism, I think that hyper-nationalism is going to be much more focused on getting ALL Germany in its borders.
 

General Zod

Banned
Wow, that's very 'mathematically possible', as in 'my team can get to the finals if team A wins by X points and team B loses by y points, but team C C wins by less than z points'.

Not any more improbable than say the Patriots winning ARW, or Napoleon up to 1812, or Hitler getting everything right up to mid-1940 and everything wrong later, or the USSR conceding the Cold War so gracefully.

That said, I agree that the 1848 scenario is rather more improbable than the 1866 one. The former requires the right chain of PoDs (three separate ones, in my account), the latter only one (which causes the Hapsburg collapse) and a half (Nappy III choosing diplomatic maneuvering first over going to war with the PR-IT-RU coalition which partitions the ex-Hapsburg Empire, and this mirrors his record). Again, however, neither is more improbable than some OTL event chains.

That said such a Grossdeutschsland would be a very powerful country, much less prone to string pulling from powerful coalitions of great powers.

Excuse me, I fail to grasp the meaning of this comment. :confused:
 

General Zod

Banned
Im sorry, Mr General, but your timeline has many improbabilities :p

See my comment to Riain.

If 1848 decides on großdeutschland, it will offer the crown to the Habsburg Emperor. Teh question also was about who gets the crown, and in a Großdeutschland scenairo that would be Habsburg. So, any Habsburg misfortune will only strengthen the Kleindeutschland camp.

This is only true as long as Hungary has not successfully seceded, with either the Austrian liberals still in control of Austria, or Radetsky has lost Venetia, or both. If this happens, the Hapsburg will look as an appealing rallying banner as say Hitler after D-Day or the South after Atlanta. And at that point, Cisleithania will essentially look up for grabs both to the Frankfurt Parliament and to any Prussian King that is not smoking feudal-legitimist crack.

But, yes Archduke John is an indeed revolutionary possiblity. ive suggested the same in my proposal - the only problem is wether hed accept. But he seems to have been a down to the people guy, for a Habsburg...

Of course, in that case Austria and Prussia would have to be, err, coqnuered first. They wont just surrender to the Paulskirche.

Yep, this option will need a successful liberal revolution in Berlin. This is however less likely IMO than a Frederick William IV that dies, abdicates, or has a change of heart. The Paulkirksche that manages a successful revolutionary war in Germany is IMO the least probable option of all.

Anyway, as I said upthread, I freely agree that the 1848 option is significantly more difficult (needs more PoDs) to accomplish than the 1866-67 one. And I notice you didn't comment on the latter option. I prefer it, both because it's easier, and because you can count on the diplomatic and political genius of Bismarck to accomplish the Hapsburg partition successfully, once he sees the writing on the wall (i.e. the Hungarians secede). Since the OP didn't specify a year for the PoD, both scenarioes are valid.

As a matter of fact, past 1848 and 1866, I only see the other good option for a Grossdeutchsland unification if the HRE becomes a centralized hereditary monarchy as the result of a continued string of successes and long ripe lives for the Hohenstaufen dynasty (or less likely the Ottonian dynasty).

Of course, other options are a successful Anschluss: A-U collapses in the 1920s in a CP victory world (quite possible), Nazi Germany wins or ties WWII (scary but quite possible, depending on PoD), Weimar Germany survives and accomplishes peaceful, democratic Anschluss in the 1930s (unlikely, Weimar survival that is), Germany ties WWI and is allowed peaceful, democratic Anschluss in 1919-21 (quite possible with the right PoD), the Allies dump the "Austria first victim of Hitler" theory and give Austria the same occupation-partition treatment as Germany in 1945-55, so it never develops a separate national identity (unlikely).

Almost ASB: Charles V goes luteran, successful HRE reform in the 1400s, unification at Congress of Vienna in 1815 when either Prussia or Austria defeats Napoleon single-handedly.
 
Stringing 3 PoDs together in succession is a very big ask, that was what I was trying to say.

As for the other, GrossD' would be close to hegemonic in Europe and would not need to worry about things such as Russian railway expansion or the diplomatic successes of King Eddie the Encircler. Kaiser Wilhelm needn't have such an inferiority complex.
 
Speaking of Willie II's inferiority complex, it is widely believed that much of his macho posturing and heavy-handed nationalism sprung from having his arm irreparably crippled at birth by an inept doctor using forceps and his mother being a cold-hearted witch treating him coldly and blaming him for his crippled arm throughout most of his early years.
The poor chap was simply overcompensating.
Could be an interesting WI element of that timeline, General Zod, not having his arm crippled and his mother not treating him like something brown and squishy stuck to her shoe.
The German and British royalty were closely related by blood and Wilhlem II was for the longest time an Anglophile, at the same time, the Royals weren't exactly negatively inclined to their German nephews. The house of Battenberg only changed their name to Mountbatten around the outbreak of OTL WWI.
That's another angle which could bear interestingly on the ATLs that get played around with here...a solid German-UK alliance.
Another thought just hit me. Several months ago, there was a very interesting article about Imperial Germany's instrumental role in actively and massively helping the Bolsheviks topple the Tsar of Russia by granting direct financial aid to Mr Uljanov in addition to just putting him in a train and sending him back to Russia. That's another big and significant event that need not necessarily have taken place...
 
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General Zod

Banned
Speaking of Willie II's inferiority complex, it is widely believed that much of his macho posturing and heavy-handed nationalism sprung from having his arm irreparably crippled at birth by an inept doctor using forceps and his mother being a cold-hearted witch treating him coldly and blaming him for his crippled arm throughout most of his early years.
The poor chap was simply overcompensating.
Could be an interesting WI element of that timeline, General Zod, not having his arm crippled and his mother not treating him like something brown and squishy stuck to her shoe.

Certainly if a solid UK-Germany alliance and friendship is to be built in a TL, two things need to be disposed of: a successful naval lobby (a Kaiser and/or Chancellor hostile to it, and who values British friendship far more than the status affirmation from the big shiny fleet, can easily dispose of it) and the atrocious behavior by Willie the Bully.

There are some good ways to dispose of that. One good one, as you suggest, is to prevent his birth damage. Another is to have him die early (there was a freaky circus accident, by which he dared Annie Oakley to hit a cigar that he was holding in his mouth and couldn't be dissuaded; Annie was nervous for having to make the dare on a royal and had drunk heavily that day; had she missed just a bit... IIRC it was in 1888 or 1890) or to have his Anglophile father avoid cancer. Hohenzollern were remarkably longeve os it completely justified to have cancerless Frederick III live up to his 80s-90s, till 1910-1920, by which Anglo-German alliance will be pretty much set in stone, and WWI most likely in full swing or already done. This has the big advantage of opening a good butterfly window for letting Bismarck in charge up to his death, and his mastery of diplomacy and dislike of provocative "Weltpolick" available. He was indeed hostile to many ideas of Frederick, but it was a problem he had seen coming for a long time, he was prepared, and in all likelihood, he, always the pragmatic, could have found a working compromise with Frederick, and the emperor respected and admired him for his unification accomplishments.

Of course, if we want to be perfectly sure, we also ought to dispose of that Francophile Edward VII. It may argued with good reason that even him would not probably find anything wrong with the UK-DE Alliance if Willie is disposed of, but we want to be sure. So we dispose of him too. Edward suffered a nasty appendicitis attack days before his coronation, and had to undergo a difficult surgery by the time to save his life. Had he dragged his feet just a bit more, or the surgery gone any wrong, he would have died at the table.

There. Willie and Eddie are removed from the stage. Frederick and Victoria (and later William Jr. and George) take their place and let Bismarck and Chamberlain, and their immediate successors, to bring UK in the Triple Alliance. Despite the unavoidable contrasts and setbacks, this will be a strategic relationship that overall will only build and strengthen with time, as it happened with the Anglo-French Entente.

The German and British royalty were closely related by blood and Wilhlem II was for the longest time an Anglophile, at the same time, the Royals weren't exactly negatively inclined to their German nephews.

Dynastic relationships are pretty much worthless if geopolitical factors are not favourable, but may work very well as a goodwill token if they are. So expect the ties between the two houses to grow with time. Of course, this is not the only important dynastic link that the Hohenzollern need strenghten. There is also the alliance with the Savoia, that has been steadily building since 1866, their most important alliance in Europe past the British. And assuming the Hapsburg have not been entirely dethroned, they still reign in Hungary and/or the second most important member of the German Empire, a marriage or two may sanction complete reconciliation.

Not to mention one possible dynastic link that I'd be buring to exploit in a "Grossdeutchsland befriends Britain and wins WWI" TL: a marriage between either William III and Queen Wilhelmina, or their children. If the German Empire maintains a respectable international reputation before and after the war, this opens a clear path for a steadily successful personal union between Netherlands and Germany, and quite possibly, if economic and political ties between the two nations grow, evolution in a political union in the long term.

And as we speak of personal union, here's another likely butterfly of the Anglo-German alliance: if these nations become allied the first time UK gets interested, in 1898-1901, it is quite possible that the Norway-Sweden personal union never dissolves, as the two great powers which the two halves of the union look upon as a model, cling together instead of being hostile.

Of course, if Norway-Sweden sides with the Alliance when WWI starts (there's a nice casus belli butterfly iabout a gung-ho Russian admiral crying to be used), they can easily bring Finland in the fold when Russia is crushed, and voila, Scandinavia is born. :cool:

Another thought just hit me. Several months ago, there was a very interesting article about Imperial Germany's instrumental role in actively and massively helping the Bolsheviks topple the Tsar of Russia by granting direct financial aid to Mr Uljanov in addition to just putting him in a train and sending him back to Russia. That's another big and significant event that need not necessarily have taken place...

Oh, most absolutely. With UK and Italy at her side, Germany has all the strategic advantage it needs to cut Russia slowly to pieces in 2-3 years at most, and they absolutely do not need to play the Lenin card. Being gradually hacked apart by the Quadruple Alliance plus Japan, not to mention airtight naval blockade, will eventually collapse Czarist Russia anyway. Lenin probably dies an obscure death in his Swiss exile, or tries to smuggle through on his own and he's caught and shot as a Russian spy (Here's the butterfly I'd use: the bastard needs humiliation :mad:).

Of course, when the Czar eventually falls down in 1916-17, the Bolsheviks shall delay making a power grab for a while (Lenin was the one ruthlessly pushing for that) but quite possibly they will eventually make some kind of power grab anyway on their own if the post-Czarist government is not able to stabilize the siutation quickly, most likely under the leadership of Trotsky, and given his leadershipo style, it shall probably be some kind of armed uprising rather than a carefully-staged coup, something between a more successful 1905 Revolution and a mega-Russian Commune. Some kind of Civil War may still erupt, even if the Reds are less likely to win without Lenin's political talent and ham-handed Trotski at the helm. Also. if the Quadruple Alliance isn't thoroughly exausted by the war, they will just send abundant weapons, money, and supplies to the Whites, if not sending their own troops to shoot Trotski & co. So any Bolshevik uprising in such a TL is likely to look like a big Commune writ over half of Russia, and just as unsuccessful. This ought to blight Communism as an ideology in the 20th Century. Of course, this will just push all the radicals who are unsatisfied with the socialdemocratic reform of the bourgeois order, in the open arms of fascism...
 
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