Greater East Bloc involvement in SWAT

MacCaulay

Banned
So I was reading a book about the Bush War in South-West Africa Territory, and I came across a quote from a man who did his National Service on the border:

"We had very sophisticated radio equipment, and between them and the interpreters, they would tune in to the MPLA, East German, and Russian frequencies and listen in. They had MiG 21s and MiG 23s...the Russians had the most experienced pilots flying the most sophisticated planes. As you went down the scale, you had the Cuban, who could fly reasonably well, but the lowest or worst were the MPLA pilots, who didn't have the expertise or skill of the others."

In the book, An Unpopular War by JH Thompson, there are interviews with "troeps" who mention going out on raids into Angola and SWAT and capturing or picking up documents or weapons caches from SWAPO or the MPLA. At some points, like around Cuito Cuanavale, the South Africans even engaged the Cubans in conventional combat that lasted for days.

The South Africans went far and wide to prepare strikes, even to Kinshasa to scout out possible sites along the Congolese border from which to launch raids on ANC in Tanzania.

But this all makes me wonder: there were reports (in Jane's Defense, I posted one about that earlier and I'll get that out again) of chemical weapons usage in the Angolan Civil War in the mid-90s. These were most likely of a type that was developed by the Soviets.

Now suppose that at some point (probably either during the Battle of Cuito Cuanavale or during the last big MPLA push in '89) chemical weapons supplied to the Angolans by the Cubans from the Soviets were used against South Africans in any way shape or form.

What happens next?
 
Doesn't South Africa have nuclear weapons at this point? If so I guess you'd see a them used in retaliation.
 
More importantly, I think they have decent protective equipment and since they had armoured vehicles, I suppose they can put up a decent fight anyway. On the other hand, I dubt the guerilla forces had decent protection. Thus I don't see the point using it.

Unless they SCUD civilian targets but that might be bad PR and possibly uselesss.
 

Susano

Banned
Doesn't South Africa have nuclear weapons at this point? If so I guess you'd see a them used in retaliation.

They had a program, but it never produced anything IIRC. And also, you dont use strategic nuclear weapons in retaliation to tactcial use of gas. Totally different escalation levels.

Militarily, I indeed dont think it would make much of a difference - gas had its heyday in WW1, and since then its military use has steadily declined. The politcial fallout would be the problem, so using gas would probably be very counter-productive for the east bloc.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
You're making the originator of this thread very angry!

:D

They produced 6 (but didn't make it public until after they were dismantled in the early 1990s).

I didn't know the exact number, but I do recall reading that no one (except for Larry Bond in Vortex, apparently) knew just how big Pelindaba was until they decided to give it up.
 
SA had six nukes, apparently about the same size as the one that got Hiroshima.

The use of chemical gas would probably make the Wesr a bit more sympathetic to South Africa's role in the war (but not the apartheid regime itself). Perhaps we would see actual open involvement of Western troops in South West Africa and Angola.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
...okay, I just found the article in in the June '93 issue of Jane's Intelligence Review.

Militarily, I indeed dont think it would make much of a difference - gas had its heyday in WW1, and since then its military use has steadily declined. The politcial fallout would be the problem, so using gas would probably be very counter-productive for the east bloc.

Well, we're not talking about the 4th Btn., MSR 9 of the NVA rolling down out of Angola with chlorine clouds in front of them.



According to Jane's, the MPLA was purportedly using these things from around 1986 with a height in 1990. There were some odd effects, for example:

Jane's Intelligence Review said:
-the reported arrival of recognized Eastern Bloc CW experts, and reports of training courses for Angolan troops
-reports from prisoners of war of the presence of new types of ammunition carried by Angolan forces. These were marked and stored differently from HE munitions.
-reports of the construction of storage bunkers suited to the stockpiling of CW munitions
-a series of signal intercepts referring to the presece of potential use of CW munitions
-the appearance for the first time of Eastern bloc chemical protective equipment among captured items

There's talk of whole UNITA units showing the same symptoms, known collectively as "steppage-gait" syndrome. It's a "progessive onset of permanent, spastic paralysis."

Then there were cluster bomb fragments recovered from around Licua that contained trace amounts of a chemical called tri-ortho-cresyl phosphate, or TOCP. It has been known to cause similar symptoms to steppage-gait.
 
Then there were cluster bomb fragments recovered from around Licua that contained trace amounts of a chemical called tri-ortho-cresyl phosphate, or TOCP. It has been known to cause similar symptoms to steppage-gait.

Aryl phosphates like this are used in a number of applications, from corrosion protection up to natural uranium extraction process in mining. The neurotoxic effect of these substances doesn't appear immediately on contact (often years after the contact).
 
I imagine that if the Cubans and MPLA had gone with widespread usage of chemical weapons, the South Africans would have responded with their own WMDs. Bad news for the MPLA guys. A Hiroshima-sized bomb (like what the Apartheid state had) will still devastate a field army.

That could result in similar to the story line of Vortex - The Eastern Bloc ups the ante and goes for the apartheid state's jugular, and the West has to respond or see South Africa's strategic minerals end up in the hands of the Eastern Bloc. Considering the timeframe, we could easily end up with two wars at once - Desert Storm in Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, and a war in South Africa, and probably Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia and Zimbabwe. Could that be done? It's a good question for the West......
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Aryl phosphates like this are used in a number of applications, from corrosion protection up to natural uranium extraction process in mining. The neurotoxic effect of these substances doesn't appear immediately on contact (often years after the contact).

That's talked about in the article. There's a lot of things that could've caused these effects, and the uranium mining is something up high on the list. But the fact that UNITA men serving in the same units within the same regions seemed to be afflicted with the same thing does tend to lend itself towards a more military theory.

I imagine that if the Cubans and MPLA had gone with widespread usage of chemical weapons, the South Africans would have responded with their own WMDs. Bad news for the MPLA guys. A Hiroshima-sized bomb (like what the Apartheid state had) will still devastate a field army.

See, I couldn't quite see the South African military retaliating for mustard gas use in SWAT with a nuclear weapon against Luanda or something. What keeps popping into my mind is a scenario where 32 Battalion (the rough equivalent to the Selous Scouts) ends up dropping in on one of these ammo dumps to capture some of these rounds and captures some East German CW experts.
Or, an SAAF airstrike from some Impalas flattens an Angolan chemical weapons bunker while some Warsaw Pact personnel are in there.

Of course, the weapons bunker scenario could just be shrugged off by the Warsaw Pact. If the South Africans don't really know who was in there, and all they find are charred bodies covered in residue, then who's to know?

But if the SADF were to, say, hit one of the southern Angolan airfields in a raid and actually capture one of these offloadings in the act, that'd be a coup for the South African government.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
More importantly, I think they have decent protective equipment and since they had armoured vehicles, I suppose they can put up a decent fight anyway. On the other hand, I dubt the guerilla forces had decent protection. Thus I don't see the point using it.

Unless they SCUD civilian targets but that might be bad PR and possibly uselesss.

Part of the reason they suspected that the Angolans had these weapons was that the South Africans and UNITA began bringing in prisoners with Warsaw Pact-issue chemical gear.

When gas masks aren't seen in a war zone, then all of the sudden they start showing up on POWs, the SADF and UNITA made what I think is the logical conclusion.

EDIT: As for delivery, from what I've read about MPLA or Angolan forces then they probably would've loaded them into artillery or mortars and hit them that way. They didn't have any type of ballistic missile.
They could've delivered them by air, but only if the Cubans and East German/Soviet pilots who were there were put into the fight as well to get air-superiority over the area they were going to drop them in.
 
Interesting. So no real effect, but it becomes obvious the Soviets are supporting the use of chemical weapons?

Wow.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Interesting. So no real effect, but it becomes obvious the Soviets are supporting the use of chemical weapons?

Wow.

Exactly. Suppose a BTR-60 is found after the Battle of Cuito Cuanavale transporting chemical weapons. Or even that 32 Battalion manages to capture a dump.

The Soviets can point at the Cubans or East Germans and try and pawn it off, but there's no way to get out of it. If the DeKlerk or Botha government (depending on when it happens) start showing pictures of what's obviously East Bloc chemical shells on TV, then they might just get a blank check to go into Angola.
This of course might also mean that the Cubans or some of the higher up Soviet-backed governments might decide that if the gloves are off for the South Africans, then the gloves are off for everyone. Then that brings in Cuba and East Germany into the fray, with East Germany acting as more or less a direct Soviet proxy.

They flew fighters in the conflict, and also provided technical troops. I don't see any reason why some further escalation into open South African warfare into Angola wouldn't make the Warsaw Pact decide to push it up, either.


I'll be honest: I've got a story brewing in my head right now.
 

wormyguy

Banned
If the South Africans truly were convinced the Angolans/Cubans were using chemical weapons, why didn't they issue protective gear to their troops?
 

MacCaulay

Banned
If the South Africans truly were convinced the Angolans/Cubans were using chemical weapons, why didn't they issue protective gear to their troops?

By '89 the South Africans were for the most part out of SWAT and it was on it's way to being Namibia. There's a very good chance that this was used on South African troops and there's just some poor guys out there with "SWAT syndrome" or whatever, not knowing why their hands are tingly and they can't seem to catch their breath when running or something.

truth is life said:
East German invasion of Angola? That would be sweet!

Well, the battle lines here were with the East Bloc backing the Angolans. So something like upped East German and Cuban support in either the aftermath of the Battle of Cuito Cuanavale or in the final big push in '89.

If it's the first, then we're talking about some sort of South African decision to hit the dumps and bunkers, then take out any MPLA camps near the Angolan/SWAT border while they're doing it.

So you've got either dead or POW East German (I'm assuming) prisoners as a result of the initial operation that leads to finding the stuff, then an open South African incursion into Angola with the intent of occupying the dumps and engaging the MPLA so that it can't do anything like this again.

This also puts UNITA in a much stronger position later.
 
By '89 the South Africans were for the most part out of SWAT and it was on it's way to being Namibia. There's a very good chance that this was used on South African troops and there's just some poor guys out there with "SWAT syndrome" or whatever, not knowing why their hands are tingly and they can't seem to catch their breath when running or something.

The way you put it, it doesn't make sense. Aryl phosphates are not useful as weapons, except as a late revenge - what military advantage do you get if you make sure that your enemies will be wheezing and lose the feeling in their fingertips in 10 years? And the acute toxicity of this stuff is not that high. They are not even good as precursors for 2-stage chemical weapons.

I do think it had some technical rather than CW application (as already said, a very polar high-boiling solvent with low freezing point and which doesn't mix with water can be useful in a millon of ways, especially if you don't need to care about long term toxicity - FWIW, you can use it to improve capacitors; substances with similar physical properties are used today as battery electrolytes), was released by accident or as a result of SA attack, and both UNITA soldiers and the attacking SA force was exposed to the released chemicals.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
The way you put it, it doesn't make sense. Aryl phosphates are not useful as weapons, except as a late revenge - what military advantage do you get if you make sure that your enemies will be wheezing and lose the feeling in their fingertips in 10 years? And the acute toxicity of this stuff is not that high. They are not even good as precursors for 2-stage chemical weapons.

What I was getting at was that according to the Jane's article, most of the usage that probably happened was on UNITA troops as opposed to South African. That's logical: if the SADF gets solid proof that it's getting attacked with this stuff, it'll be Operation Hooper, etc. all over again.

They'd be up into central Angola like at Cuito in no time.
 
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