Greater Armenia/Wilsonian Armenia exists - geopolitics of the wider region ?

I'm more curious about the way how would the region and the nations around the said state behave, what would be her friends, long term alliances, etc..

No matter if she came to be as a consequence of a total Russian victory in Crimean war, 1878 Russo - Turkish war, WW1 or something else..

I presume she would most definitely have warmer relations with Russia than the Ottomans, at least in the mid term until and if the Soviet Union came to be. What about Persia/Iran or her role in the middle eastern affairs, what do you think ?
 
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Such a state would not have been viable and would only have existed until such time as the Ottomans came back and destroyed it. Since it could only exist by killing or ethnically cleansing the non-Armenian majority an Ottoman return would have been inevitable.
 

yourworstnightmare

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One of the problems with Wilsonian Armenia are the borders. Not even the Armenians thought those borders were good, knowing that they would mean incorporation of areas with few Armenians and large numbers of non- Armenians. After WW1 that situation was even worse.
 

It could be possible the survival of an smaller Armenian state (smaller than Wilsonian), maybe OTL Democratic Republic plus some other territories (Karabakh and Artsakh from Soviet-invaded Azerbaijan and Georgia, and perhaps NE shore of Van lake, read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Van,_Turkey#Turkish_War_of_Independence_and_Republ ic)

In outline, for this to have happened it is necessary a better performance of Armenian military in 1918 against Ottoman Army than OTL, and avoiding the 1920 conflict with Atatürk. Then, a less exhausted Armenia could have faced successfully a Soviet invasion, and exchange populations with Turkey like Greece did.

From then on, I think that the presence of a small state located between three regional powers (Soviets, Iran and Turkey) after WWI and Russian Civil war would hardly change anything in regional geopolitics… Obviously, the biggest differences would be experienced by the Armenians.

Had this Armenian state been able to survive Soviet expansionism of early 1920s, (like tiny republics like Lithuania did) it could have managed to achieve good relations first with Pahlavi Iran and even with Atatürk Turkey after Russo –Turkish relations became strained after Montreux Convention. Relations with USSR would remain tense because of territorial claims of Soviet Azebaijan and Georgia and the desire of regain all the Russian Empire territories…..

If TTL Armenia was able again to resist Stalin expansionism prior to WWII ( Stalin was more interested in keeping the Germans far away his borders, and tended to expand in Eastern Europe in order to secure a buffer zone), she would remain neutral during the conflict, like Turkey did. (But it would be interesting to know how the Soviet occupation of NE Iran by the soviets affects TTL Armenians).

After WWII, in TTL Armenia there would be a strong anti-soviet trend (common border, territorial claims, threatening attitude, expansionism in Eastern Europe ,memories of recent Armeno-Soviet military conflict….) , and I imagine two possible outcomes for Cold War:

1 The most likely scenario is that the small Armenian republic would remain anti-Soviet and would seek American friendship. It would have placed Armenia in Baghdad Pact, and the Armenians would have been one of the
most enthusiastic members of this Eastern prolongation of NATO, perhaps until Iranian revolution. For the political landscape of the country, I imagine it would be similar to that of Greece, i.e a restricted democracy under permanent CIA and anti-communist surveillance at first, which could evolve to a more participatory system. Next to the end of Cold war, relations with Russia would improve dramatically, etc….

2 The second possibility would be the finlandization of Armenia, that is, the Armenian leadership would decide to pursue an “independent” course from both blocks, and would accommodate their political landscape for not being “too unfriendly” to the soviets. Perhaps this would also allow democracy to take place in TTL non-aligned Armenia , which would be nicknamed “Finland of the Caucasus” or “Anatolian Austria”.



 
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