Great What-Ifs of Canadian History Pre-1900

Thomas1195

Banned
Canada under American rule.
The Maritimes under American rule.
Treaty of Paris gives Southern Ontario to the Americans.
 
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Lusitania

Donor
There are several major pre 1900 POD. Too many to write TL for though. Big sigh

lord Selirk attempt at Red a River settlement during the 1815-1820 is successful and thousands of poor Scottish and maybe Irish settle in what is now Manitoba and North Dakota.

BNA keeps all land north of Ohio valley leading to a much larger Canada.

British enforce claim for all lands north of Columbia River.

war of 1812 is more devastating to US (due to British navy attacks). US enters period of isolation refusing British citizenship entry causing Canada’s population to skyrocket.

rebellion of 1837 either causes Britain to loose cavada or speeds up confederation.
 
Canada retains control of parts of the Northwest Territory, following the War of 1812.

French victory in the French and Indian War/ No expulsion of the Arcadians (not the same conflict, obviously, but grouped together in my mind for some reason)

Different outcomes with revolts by the Metis

Canadian Oregon Territory

Canadian Alaska

Fenian Invasions go differently
 
Interesting. I'm thinking this is 1860s era, and what do you think could have happened?

BC was convinced by promises to build the Trans-Canada Railway (though J. A. MacDonald was later impeached for having business ties/interests in building it), the Maritimes were convinced to join by being promised representation through the Senate. The Canadian Senate gives a somewhat equal voice to each province regardless of size/population (it did more so in the past), so if they needed to, the Maritimes could work together to oppose federal moves.

If you could get a strong-headed Upper/Lower Canada government to refuse giving the Maritimes a voice, you could get a separate Maritimes union (New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, PEI) along with separate Newfoundland. Regarding the railway, if the railway fails or is opposed for whatever reason, you could maybe have a separate "Pacific Canada" though that might ultimately join Canada once said railway is completed (there would still be incentive/desire/need for it).

With an independent Maritimes, Newfoundland has less reason to join Canada after WW2. In fact, you may have a Newfoundland/Maritimes union. Of course, the desire of the British to join all the "Canada" parts together would still be there the same way that they pushed for Newfoundland to join Canada.
 
Canada retains control of parts of the Northwest Territory, following the War of 1812.

French victory in the French and Indian War/ No expulsion of the Arcadians (not the same conflict, obviously, but grouped together in my mind for some reason)

Different outcomes with revolts by the Metis

Canadian Oregon Territory

Canadian Alaska

Fenian Invasions go differently

Could the Fenian Invasions/Raids have done anything of note? Sounds like they were doomed to fail due to low manpower (?).
 
There are several major pre 1900 POD. Too many to write TL for though. Big sigh

lord Selirk attempt at Red a River settlement during the 1815-1820 is successful and thousands of poor Scottish and maybe Irish settle in what is now Manitoba and North Dakota.

BNA keeps all land north of Ohio valley leading to a much larger Canada.

British enforce claim for all lands north of Columbia River.
Any ideas how these could have succeeded? I could see a bad war of 1812 for the US allowing Britain to do the latter 2? As for Selkirk's colony, maybe if the British supported him more?
 
Could the Fenian Invasions/Raids have done anything of note? Sounds like they were doomed to fail due to low manpower (?).

Could the Fenians conquer Canada and hold it hostage for a free Ireland? Oh god no. I mean, at least not without more manpower and support from segments of the US government or other forces. Could the raids have been moderately more successful, or simply played out in a different way which would have impacted the development of Canada and had all sorts of fun knock-off effects? Of course :)
 
Could the Fenian Invasions/Raids have done anything of note? Sounds like they were doomed to fail due to low manpower (?).

If they proved a slightly larger threat, the UK might have blamed the US for letting them launch attacks from their territory leading to either the US cracking down hard on "anti british movements" or else it sours the relationship between Canada and the US leading to an armed border.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Any ideas how these could have succeeded? I could see a bad war of 1812 for the US allowing Britain to do the latter 2? As for Selkirk's colony, maybe if the British supported him more?
Lord Selkirk plan was undone by Hudson Bay officials being anti settler. Their bread and butter was in fur trade. Buy manufactured goods in Britain ship them to new world. Sell them at profit to natives and Métis fur trappers for furs. Transport the furs to Europe and sell them at a profit.

settlers just muddied the waters. If say lord Selkirk who bought 10-15% of the Hudson Bay company had few wealthy partners who bought majority of Hudson Bay. They could steer it to both support and profit from sending settlers to Manitoba. Few hundred to thousand a year as infrastructure built up. By 1850 you could have 20-40,000 settlers in area.

could get British government support as way to strengthen British claims due to hostile US.

the war of 1812 is a hard one to get Britain to gain territory from. The British soon realized after ARW that an independent US was more profitable than 13 colonies were. most of the initial investment in industrialization was from Britain.

britain Wanted and needed trade with US to help pay for the Napoleon wars. It’s conduct in the war was entirely to the benefit of getting us to sign a peace treaty. They were not interested in gaining territory.

Therefore you need a POD probably before 1800 that turns US as an adversary of Britain and that Britain has reason to defeat US to limit its size and seizes territory during war of 1812 thus making US anti-British. Radicals in congress pass legislation banning emigrants from British isles.
 
French victory in the French and Indian War/ No expulsion of the Arcadians (not the same conflict, obviously, but grouped together in my mind for some reason)
the huge deportation of the Acadians occurred during the French and Indian war (conflict started in 1754. Deportation started 1755). The expulsion happened to ensure Acadia remained British after the war was over. Up to that point, Britain had a habit of returning New World gains. When the expulsion started, it wasn't envisioned that all of Canada would fall. They are the same conflict.

Folks tend to forget about New France. Rather, they know about it, but forget that there was ever French potential. Much as folks find it inevitable that the US would rule the continent, they also find it inevitable that Canada would be British and most WI revolve around the US getting their hands on Canada.

Had France decided to put a little more effort into New France from the 17th century, or Pitt decided not to make colonial conquest a centerpiece of British military efforts in the 7 yr war, New France may well have remained French.

Or, what if France had not been so aggressive in antagonizing the British, or Dinwiddie (Governor of Virginia) had not been so aggressive in responding? The conflict could have been avoided/kicked down the road. Big butterflies regarding North America, the diplomatic revolution and 7YW (both which resulted from the NA conflict).
 
Pre-New France:
-Basque or Portuguese settlement of the Gulf of St. Lawrence
-Mi'kmaq avoid the plague of 1617

New France Era:
-the settlers sent to (die of malaria in) Louisiana are instead sent to Canada
-"Up Country" open to settlement
-Montcalm dies on the voyage over and instead François Gaston de Lévis handles the defence of New France
-no expulsion of the Acadians.

Conquest to American independence:
-expulsion of the Canadiens
-Quebec Act borders
-New Ireland.

Post ARW to Confederation:
-British Seizure of Louisiana after Spain switches to the French side of the Napoleonic Wars
-Brock's Flank Companies are not dissolved
-earlier end of Family Compact and Chateau Clique
-Russia sells (or otherwise cedes) Alaska to Britain
-earlier Confederation
-Newfoundland joins Confederation
-George-Étienne Cartier is more assertive
-a different Constitution is drawn up at the Quebec Conference

Post Confederation:
-Thomas D'arcy McGee not assassinated
-Louis Riel and the Metis remain in Manitoba
-Canadian Pacific Railway is a public project
-Less selective immigration policy
-Georgian Bay Ship Canal
 
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  1. Britain retains Ohio country during the Revolutionary War
  2. Better British performance in 1812 leads to a larger Canada
  3. Britain gains everything north of the Columbia River in the Oregon dispute
  4. Oregon crisis ends in conflict
  5. HBC factor James Douglas son goes to Yerba Buena instead of Alaska and involves himself with the Californian revolutionaries which eventually leads to British involvement
  6. America gets involved during the 1838 rebellions
  7. The HBC makes a credible go of being a merchant in Hawaii
  8. Alaska and the Russian Far East fall to Britain during the Crimean War
  9. The Trent Affair triggers war between Britain and America during the American Civil War
  10. PEI joins Confederation from the start
  11. The Maritimes actually have the foresight to see how problematic the appointed senate is and how it will negatively impact them in the future
  12. The first rail line goes through the Yellowhead Pass
  13. The Canadian government pays for surveyors to subdivide the Métis lands and the conflict is avoided
  14. Manitoba gains the portion of western Ontario around Kenora
  15. Newfoundland joins Confederation in the 1890s
 
Folks tend to forget about New France.
I don't but then, I'm Québécois.

Rather, they know about it, but forget that there was ever French potential. Much as folks find it inevitable that the US would rule the continent, they also find it inevitable that Canada would be British and most WI revolve around the US getting their hands on Canada.

Had France decided to put a little more effort into New France from the 17th century, or Pitt decided not to make colonial conquest a centerpiece of British military efforts in the 7 yr war, New France may well have remained French.

Or, what if France had not been so aggressive in antagonizing the British, or Dinwiddie (Governor of Virginia) had not been so aggressive in responding? The conflict could have been avoided/kicked down the road. Big butterflies regarding North America, the diplomatic revolution and 7YW (both which resulted from the NA conflict).

Another possibility was that Richelieu had insisted that only Catholic settlers be allowed in. What if this was limited to Canada and Louisiana and huguenots were allowed to settle in the Illinois ? a boost in french settlers number would have helped come the 7 Years War.
 
the Aroostook War, a border conflict between the US and British North America. As it occured at the same time as the 1837-1840 Uprisings in Lower and Upper Canada, it could have escalated if the US decided to either be "benevolently neutral" toward the Patriotes and Reformists or else double down and recognise a Provisional Government of Lower Canada hoping to eventually kick the british out of North America.


 
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