Say someone else becomes King of Poland in 1696, or just that the Treaty_of_Preobrazhenskoye doesn't unite Russia with Poland, Saxony, and Denmark. Would Peter the Great attack Sweden alone? Would Sweden, after a win at Narva, try to march to Moscow? (Given the small size of Sweden's army, yet how many were killed at Narva, you could imagine that msot of both armies wind up dying or being captured.)