"Great Matter" without Charles V

[Jan Olbracht]

IOTL Henry VIII' chances to get annulment of his marriage with Catherine of Aragon were astronomically low-her nephew happened to be emperor, whose troops sacked Rome and who practicallt kept pope as prisoner.
Say Charles V is out of the picture-maybe he and his brother died during childhood so some non-Habsburg was elected instead. Or Maximilian I has a son with Bianca Sforza who won election after him, with no blood connections to CoA. Or French sacked Rome ITTL.
How would Henry's quest for annulment looks like now? Annulments were not uncommon among royaltly back then, but even without Charles to oppose it there was still problem-Henry get dispensation from pope to marry his brother's widow. So pope was wrong? Could that problem be overcomed?

 

[kasumigenx]

IOTL Henry VIII' chances to get annulment of his marriage with Catherine of Aragon were astronomically low-her nephew happened to be emperor, whose troops sacked Rome and who practicallt kept pope as prisoner.
Say Charles V is out of the picture-maybe he and his brother died during childhood so some non-Habsburg was elected instead. Or Maximilian I has a son with Bianca Sforza who won election after him, with no blood connections to CoA. Or French sacked Rome ITTL.
How would Henry's quest for annulment looks like now? Annulments were not uncommon among royaltly back then, but even without Charles to oppose it there was still problem-Henry get dispensation from pope to marry his brother's widow. So pope was wrong? Could that problem be overcomed?

Have Henry ally with Francis I against the Spanish and the Germans.

 

[Philippe le Bel]

A pope that isn't the pawn of Charles V would probably annul without a second thought given enough cash. Maybe Henry can give that pope concessions in the potassium alum trade, which the popes used to hold a monopoly in and which gravitated by then to England's control?

 

[Mike Louis]

The problem with the above scenario is that you'll be exchanging Charles V (Carlos I of Spain) for Catherine herself since with Charles out of the picture, she'll be the Queen of Spain. Since Catherine will be ruling Naples as well, Pope Clement V wouldn't be able to grant Henry VIII the annulment. With TTL's Catherine ruling Spain, Henry would simply run out the clock and wait until she dies (Catherine was older than Henry). If Henry VIII was dumb enough to still to pull the same stunts he did in OTL, he'll set England up for some serious succession shenanigans after his death (Mary / Maria of Spain will invade England in order to claim her "rightful throne").

 

[Alex Zetsu]

If Henry VIII was dumb enough to still to pull the same stunts he did in OTL, he'll set England up for some serious succession shenanigans after his death (Mary / Maria of Spain will invade England in order to claim her "rightful throne").

Henry VIII really wanted that son. Either than or he really wanted to get into Anne Boleyn's Pants. I'd wager it was the former given Anne's fate and that Jane was his "one true wife." Unless you somehow think there was something magical about Jane and the charges of adultery against Anne were true (if both of these were the case one could make an argument it wasn't just about a son, but no one in these forums would assert either is true)

 

[Mike Louis]

Henry VIII really wanted that son. Either than or he really wanted to get into Anne Boleyn's Pants. I'd wager it was the former given Anne's fate and that Jane was his "one true wife." Unless you somehow think there was something magical about Jane and the charges of adultery against Anne were true (if both of these were the case one could make an argument it wasn't just about a son, but no one in these forums would assert either is true)

In TTL with Catherine ruling Spain and Naples, Henry VIII only play is to wait until she dies before remarrying and then trying for that son. If he tries the OTL route, his daughter Mary (TTL's Queen Maria of Spain) will invade England to claim the throne after TTL's Edward VI's death.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

The problem with the above scenario is that you'll be exchanging Charles V (Carlos I of Spain) for Catherine herself since with Charles out of the picture, she'll be the Queen of Spain. Since Catherine will be ruling Naples as well, Pope Clement V wouldn't be able to grant Henry VIII the annulment. With TTL's Catherine ruling Spain, Henry would simply run out the clock and wait until she dies (Catherine was older than Henry).

Um...how? If Karl/Ferdinand die in infancy, they still have four sisters. If by some fluke Juana of Castile loses ALL her children, then the Spanish crowns go to her sister, Maria (or her kids if Juana outlives her as OTL). Kate was pretty low down in the pecking order to succeed (esp. given Maria's Ceres-like fecundity), which was partly the reason that her market value declined so sharply once mommy dearest died, and Henry tried to get out of thr match for his heir.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

In TTL with Catherine ruling Spain and Naples, Henry VIII only play is to wait until she dies before remarrying and then trying for that son. If he tries the OTL route, his daughter Mary (TTL's Queen Maria of Spain) will invade England to claim the throne after TTL's Edward VI's death.

There might not even be a TTL Edward VI. Remember, the man determines the gender of the child, and most of Henry's were daughters (both surviving children and all births). If (or rather When) Henry tries that stunt, Mama Catherine will send an invasion force before his has 2 kids with his new girl. In OTL and TTL, Henry VIII would have trouble with funds, even without an impending invasion. I imagine in TTL, many of the Earls might forget to pay their taxes as the Castilians come in with the rightful heir. Heck, one of them might have prepared a landing harbor, complete with a purple carpet to London. You think Anne was unpopular in OTL? Well, if he tries that here I imagine an unpaid army isn't going to provide much resistance.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

There might not even be a TTL Edward VI. Remember, the man determines the gender of the child, and most of Henry's were daughters (both surviving children and all births). If (or rather When) Henry tries that stunt, Mama Catherine will send an invasion force before his has 2 kids with his new girl.

3 legitimate boys with Katherine (2 live births and a stillborn son), 2 miscarriages with Anne (one of whom we know was male, not sure about the other one), Edward VI, Fitzroy, (as well as five other possible bastard sons born over the 1520s that were Henry's, vs three possible bastard daughters (excluding Mary, Elizabeth and the two female stillbirths with Kate)) doesn't seem to indicate a preponderence for siring girls, IMHO. Seems a reasonable even-handed ratio:
Katherine of Aragon: 3 boys, 3 girls
Bessie Blount: 1 boy, 1 girl (unacknowledged)
Mary Boleyn: 1 boy, 1 girl (both unacknowledged, paternity dubious)
Anne Boleyn: 1 girl, 1 boy, 1 miscarriage (gender uncertain)
Jane Seymour: 1 boy
By various other mistresses: 3 boys, 1 girl (paternity dubious, probably Henry's, but never acknowledged)

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Without Charles and Ferdinand HRE likely goes to Wittelsbach or Wettin duke, Spain-to House of Aviz (so we have Iberian Union). I wonder what will happen with Netherlands in such scenario-would Eleanor be able to keep it? If emperor is indifferent about Henry's marriage there is still another powerfull nephew of CoA around-king of Spain, likely John III Aviz.

 

[BlueFlowwer]

I think John III of Portugal will be a excellent king of Spain and the trouble with Portugal lack of manpower and silver bullion can be solved perhaps as well

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Abstracting from H8 marriage lack of Charles & Ferdinand is material for good TL IMHO.
-Just after first Congres of Vienna is over (july 1515) tragic news reached court of Maximilian I-his younger grandson Ferdinand died in horse-riding accident. But it is not the last tragedy that happened to him-in October that year his older nephew fell ill and also died. Maximilian is left without male heirs just after he promised Austria to Jagiellons if his house went extinct. To save his dynasty he decided to marry Anna Jagiellon, would-be wife of his grandson, but his chance to left male heir was slim, to ensure that his lands and titles would remain within family he decided to marry his oldest granddaughter Eleanor to his nephew-William of Bavaria, and then made new deal with Jagiellons.
-Sigismund I, uncle and guardian of Louis II of Hungary would widthraw claims to Austria in his name, in exchange Polish-Lithuanian Jagiellons are recognised as heirs to Hungarian line.
-Sigismund would support William during Imperial election (as representant of his nephew, who as Czech king was one of electors) and will marry his sister, Susanna of Bavaria.
Meanwhile in Spain...

 

[kasumigenx]

Abstracting from H8 marriage lack of Charles & Ferdinand is material for good TL IMHO.
-Just after first Congres of Vienna is over (july 1515) tragic news reached court of Maximilian I-his younger grandson Ferdinand died in horse-riding accident. But it is not the last tragedy that happened to him-in October that year his older nephew fell ill and also died. Maximilian is left without male heirs just after he promised Austria to Jagiellons if his house went extinct. To save his dynasty he decided to marry Anna Jagiellon, would-be wife of his grandson, but his chance to left male heir was slim, to ensure that his lands and titles would remain within family he decided to marry his oldest granddaughter Eleanor to his nephew-William of Bavaria, and then made new deal with Jagiellons.
-Sigismund I, uncle and guardian of Louis II of Hungary would widthraw claims to Austria in his name, in exchange Polish-Lithuanian Jagiellons are recognised as heirs to Hungarian line.
-Sigismund would support William during Imperial election (as representant of his nephew, who as Czech king was one of electors) and will marry his sister, Susanna of Bavaria.
Meanwhile in Spain...

I think Eleanor would marry John II of Portugal while Isabella would marry William, Eleanor is the heiress to Spain.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Isabella was already married in 1515, it was in August, so if Ferdinand dies in late July/early August news of his death may not reach Isabella before her wedding. John would marry Catherine like IOTL.

 

[kasumigenx]

I think Juana la Loca can remarry and have sons at this point since she is still fertile, she is 36 years old, the problem is who she can marry, can she marry the Duke of Calabria who ITTL married Germaine.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

I think Juana la Loca can remarry and have sons at this point since she is still fertile, she is 36 years old, the problem is who she can marry, can she marry the Duke of Calabria who ITTL married Germaine.

She coul marry Manuel of Portugal, if her sister dies like IOTL. Manuel would claim the throne anyway after his father-in-law death. By primogeniture Eleanor is rightful heir but Manuel have two big advantages over her-he is Iberian and he is a man.

I think that Manuel will marry Juana only to legitimise his rule, not to sire another heir, and he would kept her imprisoned like her father did before.

 

[kasumigenx]

She coul marry Manuel of Portugal, if her sister dies like IOTL. Manuel would claim the throne anyway after his father-in-law death. By primogeniture Eleanor is rightful heir but Manuel have two big advantages over her-he is Iberian and he is a man.

Juana at this point is in Spain and is an eligible bride, that even Henry VII wanted to marry.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Generally instead of vast Habsburg Empire we have 3 blocks-Aviz united Iberia, Wittelsbach HRE and Jagiellon Central-Eastern Europe. France would do better-Wittelsbach rule is not well estabilished well, and Aviz Spain would not be interested in crushing defeat of France by Wittelsbachs (and vice versa ) because they are also potential rivals in Italy.

In Spain I think John Aviz would marry Catherine Habsburg earlier than IOTL, propably before his father's death. I wonder if one of his younger brothers could get Naples as separate kingdom?

 

[mrmandias]

Generally instead of vast Habsburg Empire we have 3 blocks-Aviz united Iberia, Wittelsbach HRE and Jagiellon Central-Eastern Europe. France would do better-Wittelsbach rule is not well estabilished well, and Aviz Spain would not be interested in crushing defeat of France by Wittelsbachs (and vice versa ) because they are also potential rivals in Italy.

That sounds like a more logical development for Europe that could avoid some of the nasty transitions from imperial models to national models.

 

[BlueFlowwer]

Isn't there anyone else for John of Avis to wed? Literary anyone else than a first cousin? Hell marry Buenaventura of Navarre just to get some fresh blood in the family