In this version of history there was an improvement in the quality of British bombers from the early 1930s. It began with Specification B.19/27. This produced the Handley Page Harrow and Vickers Wellington. The latter built 448 Harrows in place of the 124 Heyfords and 100 Harrows it built in the real world. Vickers initially built 500 Wellingtons in place of the 176 Wellesleys and 14 Fairey Hendons that were built in the real world. It went on to build thousands of Wellingtons for general reconnaissance, which were built in place of the Blackburn Botha, Lockheed Hudson and Lockheed Ventura.
Specification B.9/32 produced the Avro Lancaster, Handley Page Halifax and a modified Vickers Warwick with 4 Merlin class engines in place of the pair of Vultures used by the real Warwick prototype. The last two bombers were built in place of the Halifax and Warwick respectively. The Lancasters were built by Avro, Austin, Fairey and Rootes in place of the Battles and Blenheims they built in the real world.
Vickers built the Windsor to Specification B.1/35, while B.12/35 and P.13/36 produced the Avro Lincoln, H.P. Hastings bomber and Short Super Stirling. The Windsor was built instead of the real world's Warwick, while the Lincoln was built instead of the Manchester/Lancaster, and the Hastings bomber in place of the Halifax. There was no Supermarine B.12/36 in this version of history because the Air Ministry wanted it to concentrate on other work and more Vickers B.1/35 prototypes were ordered in their place. No Super Stirlings were built in place of the standard Stirling by Short Brothers, Short & Harland and Austin. The Air Ministry wanted the first two firms to concentrate on flying boats and Austin built more Lincolns.
Specification B.1/39 produced British equivalents to the American Hemisphere Defence Bomber, better known as the Boeing B-29 Superfortress. The Vickers Superfortress, built instead of the Vickers Windsor reached the prototype stage, but the war ended before it could be put into production. The Avro Superfortress went into service in place of the Lincoln and was powered by a quartet of RR Clyde turboprops.
Meanwhile in the light bomber category Vickers built the Wellesley or more Wellingtons in place of the Vildebeest. De Havilland won Specification P.27/32 with the Mosquito and more of them were built instead of the Bristol built Blenheims, the Bristol Beaufort and Bristol Beaufighter.
Therefore at the end of 1947 Bomber Command had 160 aircraft in 24 squadrons with 6-8 aircraft each. In common with the real world there were 2 Mosquito light bomber squadrons but the 22 medium bombers were converting from the Lincoln to the B-29 equivalent. At the end of June 1948 the Command had 48 Lincolns and 96 B-29 equivalents instead of 48 Lancasters and 96 Lincolns.
2) The Vickers Valiant
In the 1951 Rearmament Programme (Plan H) Bomber Command was to have 404 bombers in March 1955 consisting of 144 medium bombers and 260 light bombers. In the real world there were to be 64 Boeing B-29 Superfortresses, 80 Lincolns and 260 Canberras. In this version of history all the medium bombers would have been Avro B-29 equivalents, except that the aircraft industry was able to do much better.
In this version of history a jet powered medium bomber was developed alongside the Canberra by Vickers. Work began in 1944 and it entered service in August 1950, which is when the first B-29 squadron was formed. For simplicity this was the Valiant brought forward 4½ years. Thanks to the early reorganisation of the engine industry Rolls Royce has the resources to develop a 10,000lb thrust Avon for 1950. Otherwise the Valiants of this version of history would have had inferior performance to the real ones because they had less powerful engines.
440 Valiants were ordered from BAC: 105 instead of the Boeing Washington (105 requested under MDAP, but only 87 received); 225 in place of the 450 Canberras ordered from Avro, Handley Page and Short Brothers; 75 in place of 149 Supermarine Attackers and the original order for 158 Supermarine Swifts; and 35 in place of 140 Swifts ordered from Short Brothers.
Bringing the Valiant forward 5 years allowed Bomber Command to have 304 medium bombers and 100 Canberras in March 1955, plus 16 Valiants in 2 long range PR squadrons.
3) Specification B.35/46
This specification was for the most advanced medium bomber that could be built for the Year of Maximum Danger, but in the end 331 aircraft were built to 4 designs. They had avionics and engines that were used by other aircraft, but designing 4 airframes wasted scarce design resources and production economies of scale that might have been realised by building one bomber in one factory were forfeited. The opposite happened in this version of history.
No interim bombers were built to Specifications B.14/46 and B.9/48 because the Valiant was being built to an earlier specification. Hawker Siddeley proposed the Vulcan, which was not ordered because the Government wanted Hawker Siddeley to concentrate on its fighter projects. Apart from the Scimitar no fighter prototypes were ordered from BAC so it could concentrate on the Victor.
8 Victor prototypes and 4 static test articles were built instead of the 2 prototypes and one STA of each aircraft built in the real world and several HP.88 research aircraft were built instead of the Avro 707 family. Having more engineers, draughtsmen and prototypes shortened the development programme by compressing the same number of man hours into fewer calendar years. The first Victor squadron was formed in January 1955 instead of April 1958
[1].
In the real world the RAF wanted to upgrade its Mk 1 Victor and Vulcans to Mk 2 standard until it discovered that the cost of rebuilding an old aircraft was two-thirds the cost of a new one. However, in this version of history all 449 were built with the Mk 2 airframe and engines in the 20,000lb class. The different marks in this version of history denoted avionics upgrades.
All other things being equal 372 production Victors were built in one factory instead of the 323 aircraft spread among 4 factories in the real world
[2]. However, a reshuffling of orders increased the total to 449
[3] for a grand total 457 aircraft including 8 prototypes instead of the 331 medium bombers built in the real world.
[4]
There was some standardisation of engines as well as airframes. The Valiants had RR Avons, the Victor Mk 1s had AS Sapphires, the Mk 2 had the RR Conway and the Vulcan had Bristol Olympus engines. All the aircraft ordered with RR engines in the real world had Conways and all the others had BSE Sapphires.
According to Wynn in RAF Nuclear Deterrent Forces the Valiant airframe cost £10 to develop, but it was not possible to calculate the cost of its engines and equipment were common to other programmes. Assuming that the development cost of the other 3 was about the same £30 million was saved and could be spent elsewhere. There were also production economies of scale, which allowed more aircraft to be built for the same money.
4) The Canberra
The number of Canberras built for the RAF was the same as the real world. However, a shuffling of orders meant that all 931 of them were built by BAC at the former English Electric factory. The 294 extra aircraft were built with improved production methods rather than more manpower. Bomber Command had 260 Canberra bombers in March 1955 in the real world, but due to the earlier availability of the Valiant it only had 100 in this version of history. The surplus is used to accelerate the deployment of the aircraft in other commands.
The 925 Canberras built for the RAF and export in this version of history were built to a higher standard due to the earlier availability of engines in the 10,000lbf class. This resulted in a 50% increase in engine power for the B Mk 2, PR Mk 3 and T Mk 4; followed by a 33% improvement for Marks 5, 6, 7 and 8.
5) The Canberra Replacement
The RAF was forced to buy the Buccaneer, rather than the English Electric P.17 and Supermarine 571, which were amalgamated into the BAC TSR 2. However, Rolls Royce was able to develop the Spey fast enough for it to replace the Gyron Junior in the Buccaneer Mk 1 and the Mk 2 of this version of history had a digital avionics package. 209 Buccaneers were built to 1977 in the real world, including 16 for the SAAF, but in this version of history it should be possible to build enough for a one-to-one replacement of the Canberra force using the money spent on the TSR 2 and F-111K in the real world.
6) Ballistic Missiles and Stand-off Bombs
a) Blue Steel
The Avro Whitworth Division of Hawker Siddeley is given a contract to develop Blue Steel instead of the Vulcan bomber. All the money that was put into developing the Vulcan plus the Avro 707 and Avro 710 flying scale models is put into Blue Steel. So is the money spent on the Avro 720 rocket-propelled fighter and Avro 730 Mach bomber reconnaissance aircraft.
The real Blue Steel Mk 1 was obsolete by the time it came into service and cost overruns meant the number of missiles built was less than planned. The Blue Steel Mk 1 of this history was also more expensive than expected, but because it was started in 1948 instead of 1955 it entered service in 1956 instead of 1963, which is before it became obsolete and it enjoyed a longer service life.
In the real world the plan was to buy enough Blue Steels to equip 8 squadrons of Victor and Vulcan Mk 2 bombers, that is half of the 15 squadrons planned at the time, but cost overruns reduced the number built to 6 squadrons worth. In this version of history it was planned to equip half the medium bomber force with Blue Steel, which requiring enough to equip 20 out of 38 squadrons requiring the production of 160 missiles plus proof, backing and training rounds. All other things being equal cost overruns would require a cut to 120 missiles, but 160 were built as planned through economies of scale.
A much improved Blue Steel Mk 2 was planned in both versions of history. In the real world it was cancelled in 1959 to allow Avro to concentrate on the Mk 1. In this version of history work on Blue Steel Mk 2 began 7 years earlier, but it was put on hold in 1952 to allow Hawker Siddeley to concentrate on the Mk 1, rather than being cancelled outright. It was paid for with the money used to develop and produce Blue Steel Mk 1 in the real world. It entered service in 1960.
b) Black Knight and Blue Streak
Westland's Saunders Roe Division didn't build the Princess flying boat, SR.53 and SR.177. Instead it concentrated on helicopters and ballistic missiles. Thus the Black Knight research rocket made its first flight in 1950 rather than 1958. In common with the real world 25 missiles were built of which 22 were launched between 1950 and 1957.
In the real world Westland proposed the 54" diameter Black Knight Mk 3 to follow on from the 36" diameter Mk 1 and 2 versions, but the Government decided to buy the Black Arrow small satellite launcher because it did not have the money for both projects. Instead the Project Sparta RTV programme which Black Prince Mk 3 was intended to support used second-hand Redstone rockets bought from the Americans. In this version of history the Black Knight Mk 3 was proposed 8 years earlier and was operational by 1958.
Black Knight was built to test re-entry test vehicles for the Blue Streak ballistic missile and was begun 8 years earlier because Blue Streak was also begun 8 years earlier. In the real world the first launch was scheduled to take place in the last quarter of 1960, but that does not mean it happened in the last quarter of 1952 in this version of history. This is because the Government bought ballistic missile technology from the USA to accelerate the development programme. The real Blue Streak and its Rolls Royce RZ.2 engine were based technology purchased from America, that is the Atlas ICBM and the Rocketdyne S-3D engine
[5]. There was no Americans technology to buy in 1947 so the British engineers had to start from scratch. I half remember reading that buying American technology saved 2 years, but I have deliberately been more conservative by putting the first test launch in the last quarter of 1956 rather than the end of 1954.
Blue Streak entered RAF service in 1958 and 60 were deployed in place of the American Thor missiles used in the real world. In common with the American missiles these missiles were deployed on vulnerable open launch pads and galloping technology meant they were stood down in 1963.
c) Black Arrow and Black Prince
In the real world the British Government decided that it could not afford to a national satellite launcher because we did not have the money to pay for the R&D and the number of national satellites was too small to make economical use of production and launch facilities. Ironically the UK ended up developing the technology with Black Arrow and ELDO-A (Europa I/II) and threw it away. In this version of history the earlier start on Blue Streak and a huge amount of hindsight mean the British taxpayer gets more value for money.
In this version of history the British Government decided to launch a series of satellites during the International Geophysical Year (1st July 1957 to 31st December 1958). In the middle of 1955 the RAE presented it with the following alternatives:
Black Arrow The small satellite launcher eventually built in the real world. First launch 1958
Black Prince Mk 1 Blue Streak plus Black Knight (36" version) First launch 1957
Black Prince Mk 2 Blue Streak plus Black Knight (54" version) First launch 1958
Black Prince Mk 3 Blue Streak plus Black Arrow First launch 1958
The Government selected Black Prince Mks 1 and 2. The first of 6 Black Prince Mk 1 rockets was launched in January 1957 and there was an interval of 2 months between launches. The first 3 carried dummy payloads and the others test satellites. If all went well the UK would have launched 2 satellites (July and September 1957) before Sputnik 1 in October 1957. This was followed by 6 scientific satellites launched by Black Prince Mk 2 in 1958.
In the opinion of the author things would have gone very well. The 36" Black Knight had been flying since 1950 and all the bugs should be cured by 1957. The 54" Black Knight should be easy to develop and reliable because it was the avionics and engines of the earlier rocket in a larger body. Blue Streak was a reliable rocket in the real world and I see no reason why it should not be in this version of history.
Low technical risk, rapid development and reliability were three reasons why Black Prince Mks 1 and 2 were developed instead of the others. The fourth reason was cost: the R&D cost was covered by the RTV and MRBM programmes. Six 36" Black Knights and six 54" Black Knights were cheaper to build than 12 Black Arrows because they were already in production. 12 Blue Streak MRBM were taken off the production line and modified as Black Prince first stages and 12 more MRBM were ordered to replace them but that did not increase the production cost of the missiles by 20%. The cost of using Spadeham, the Isle of Wight and Woomera was covered by the ballistic missile and RTV programmes.
The IGY satellite programme was a huge success so the Government approved a follow on programme. Development of Black Arrow was approved because the use of proven Black Knight technology meant it could be built relatively quickly and cheaply at low technical risk. Black Arrow gave the UK a small satellite launcher that could also be used as the upper stages of the improved Black Prince Mk 3,
[6] which effectively meant 2 new rockets for the price of one. Test flights began in 1959, but in common with the real Black Arrow there were several launch failures and it did not launch a satellite until the end of 1960.
In the real world ELDO proposed 3 space rockets based on the Blue Streak:
ELDO-A Europa I. With the PAS fourth stage added this became Europa II;
ELDO-B Blue Streak with new upper stages using high-energy propellants (i.e. liquid hydrogen);
ELDO-C A new first stage with 4 rather than 2 RZ.2 engines and high-energy upper stages.
What happened after that isn't clear. I think that ELDO-B became Europa III when ELDO-A/PAS was renamed Europa II. The lukewarm British attitude to ELDO led to Europa IIIB with a new first stage, with 4 Viking engines instead of 2 RZ.2 engines so it was effectively ELDO-C, rather than a variant of ELDO-B. Then the high-energy upper stages were replaced with a second stage powered by one Viking engine and a third stage developed from Diamant the French national launcher and Coralie the ELDO-A second stage. This rocket is better known as Ariane.
Black Prince Mk 3 gave Britain a launcher in the Europa II class in 1960. Black Arrow Mk 2 with the Stentor engine developed for Blue Steel in place of the original Gamma engines was developed with the money used to keep Blue Streak ticking over while ELDO was being organised. The Blue Streak-Black Arrow Mk 2 combination (Black Prince Mk 4) had the same performance as ELDO-B/Europa III and was ready by 1965.
The money the British taxpayer spent on Europa and Black Arrow would have gone a long way towards Super Black Prince which was equivalent to ELDO-C and Ariane. The first stage would have 4 RZ.2 engines, the second one RZ.2 and the third would be derived from Black Arrow. If adequately funded it would have been ready for 1970.
The 60 RAF Blue Streak rockets were retired in 1963 and could be recycled as Black Prince Mk 3 first stages and enough Stentor rockets for 40 Blue Streak Mk 2 became available after Blue Steel Mk 1 was retired. However, there were only 13 all-British satellites between 1962 and 1980 in the real world so what would all these rockets launch?
If Concorde was built in this version of history it would have taken less time to develop and been less expensive, but no more than 20 would have been built so it would still have been a commercial failure. An alternative use for the money would be space either through ESRO/ESA or a stronger national programme.
There was probably no ELDO in this version of history, but there was still ESRO and that organisations satellites were launched by British launchers because the UK Government made that a condition of British membership. If there was no ELDO and Europa the money spent on it by the other members might go into ESRO and the CETS communications satellite organisation with the extra satellites launched by Black Arrow and Black Prince. Instead of Ariane the newly formed ESA could use the development money on more satellites as it already had a launch vehicle in that class or use it to improve the existing launchers.
If the British Government had been prepared to spend the extra money the European Space Agency of today would be using launchers based on the Blue Streak and Black Knight, built in British factories rather than French built Arianes. This creates the question, "How would the French feel about that?" and "What would they do with the money that they spent on Concorde, Europa and Black Prince?"
7) Second Generation Ballistic Missiles
In this version of history Blue Streak was to have been replaced in 1965 by a second generation "rapid fire" MRBM using storable solid propellants and based in silos. It was begun in 1955 and cancelled in 1960 and was paid for using the money spent on Blue Streak in the real world. All other things being equal there would have been a complimentary British ALBM whose engines used the same fuel and the designers tried to maximise the number of common parts as possible to reduce the development and production costs. This would have been built instead of Blue Water and paid for using the £32 million spent on that cancelled weapon and the £27 million spent on Skybolt. All other things being equal it was cancelled in 1962 in favour of Polaris.
Except that the Royal Navy wanted a SLBM version, which wasn't cancelled and that went into service on the Resolution class SSBNs in place of Polaris.
However, the British SLBM is probably going to be more expensive to produce than Polaris as the Americans made about 1,500 Polaris missiles and the British would only build about 100 including test rounds. Therefore alternative history writers of this timeline would be producing treaties on how the money spent on the second generation ballistic missile programme should have been spent on upgrading the V-Force and a Blue Steel Mk 3 missile.
8) Bombers and Ballistic Missiles Conclusion
To quote Derek Wood in Project Cancelled, "This is all glorious wishful thinking." And in spite of my juggling of the R&D and production contracts it's going to cost more. Money has to be found for the 440 Valiants built 1950-55 and for the earlier development and production of Blue Streak. However, all the rest could have been done with the money that was available in the real world.
[1] The first Vulcan Mk 1 squadron was formed in July 1957.
[2] In place of the 104 Valiant Mk 1 built of 128 ordered, one Valiant Mk 2, 50 Victor Mk 1, 34 Victor Mk 2 built of 59 ordered, 45 Vulcan Mk 1 and 89 Vulcan Mk 2. The Valiant Mk 1 order was cut in the 1957 Defence Review. The Victor Mk 2 order was cut because Sir Frederick Handley Page would not join one of the new large airframe groups.
[3] 50 in place of 191 Swifts (the third to fifth contracts) and finally 27 in place of the 55 Canberras English Electric subcontracted to Shorts.
[4] 2 Sperrins, 107 Valiants, 86 Victors and 136 Vulcans including the prototypes.
[5] The Rolls Royce copy of the S-3D was designated RZ.1. The RZ.2 was a new engine developed from the RZ.1.
[6] In the real world the Black Arrow was designed so that it could have had replaced Coralie and Astris as the upper stages of the ELDO-A/Europa I rocket.
